Howdy Charles,
First, thank you for all of your efforts with data and charts.
I'm arse high deep in a project(s) and have had too really filter my time allotment to "other" areas of life; although I must continue to read through MFO posts and monitor news/data relative to our investments to stay in the investments thinking loop.
As many here at MFO are aware, there are more methods available to perform techinical measurements than at least I have the time and/or apptitude to study and learn. My observations (limited study) of the technical areas always bring me back to thinking/study relationships with reading books about any given subject. If I select 10 authors on a given subject, it is likely that 1 author will write and offer the text/data in such a fashion that really hits my "sweet spot" for understanding. Not unlike folks who many of us may encounter who are brilliant in a given field; and may be teachers/writers, but who do not have the ability to properly pass along their knowledge and/or way of viewing or thinking about the subject matter.
'Course there are all of the other added circumstances that relate to investing, too.
1. one knowing and understanding their own limitations.
a. I know and understand when I have hit a wall of perception to grasp a particular concept. I have discovered this numerous times, especially studying methods used in technical areas of investing. I discover and read about a method to find that apparently I do not have the brain power to fully grasp the particular methodology.
2. liberal "arts" knowledge. This is a tough area to define, as it is different for everyone. Generally accepted I suppose, aside from one's own area of skill(s); is what do you think you know and understand about everything else in the world. Any knowledge should be of value at some point in the future, which starts with the very next day of investing.
3. fundamental aspects of investing. Well, there exist pure fundamentals here and there; but the current culture of this area has become and remains a most perverted area since December of 2008. Currently, the main perversion modifiers are central bank actions and machine trades. The revised and new normal would include both of these.
4. one's emotion and passion towards the preservation of their money. Emotional investing sure may get in the way of clear thinking, especially when blending with the passion side.
5. the machines, the competition. The machine trades ( reportedly about 70% of market(s) activity) are a most serious consideration, too. There is not a clear and concise way to deal with this aspect. One must also consider that there is little love lose among the big houses who battle and fight in this machine area to beat the other guy for bragging rights. Individual investors may well, at times; be standing on the sidelines wondering when do they get their turn in the musical chairs.
6. talking heads and credibility. This area includes all talking heads, be they screamers on the television channels, internet blogs or the figure heads of central banks and states, et al (including me!). First, they make their case for this or that. The tough part of this for an individual investor is too attempt to understand the motivation of the person; as much of the talk becomes aspects of marketing an idea without giving away the secrets and unknown data available to that person or persons. Too much of the time we do not and never will have the real truths behind actions.
7. the individual. One's habits are also a very powerful part of investing. Habits can be protective and positive. Habits may also be or place road blocks into one's pathway of change for the better. I offer that one's habits may be the most powerful force involved with investing; and one of the most challenging areas with which to adjust and/or change.
8. It is about the money, eh? If this house was sitting upon a $5 million portfolio, our direction of investment travel would be different. If we threw (invested) a large portion of this money, knowing that 20% of the value may go bye-bye; we would still happily survive on the remaining $4 million. 'Course this is not our position here, nor our mindset. This is the area of what one has today, how much to invest going forward (during the working years) and how much risk/reward to put in place within various investment sectors. Our house knew from day one that there would not be any provided health plan if retiring prior to age 65, and that the available pensions would be very modest. We understood that we had to do "other things" to provide for our monetary futures via common sense household budgets and investing. Thirty five years later the plan is functioning as expected.
I've wandered every direction with this, sideways related to technical analysis.
I have no conflict with Flack's method or other's methods that have been noted over the years. Attempting to mix all of the above personal considerations finds me leaning today towards more influence from the technical side. But, the technical must still be and have influence from the above factors. A 10 month or 200 day SMA is of benefit, IMO; but likely must be tempered and measured from shorter time frames, too. Many so inclined in this area start with 10, 50, 100 and then 200 day averages to attempt to find a continued trend in a given area. Relative strength indicators (RSI's at 21, 14 and 7 day periods) are also part of this; although oversold and overbought indicators can remain in place longer than one would "guess" .
I do not believe that long SMA's would have been of any value during the short term crash in Oct., 1987. This short period was a strange bird event. This linked chart
FCNTX, March 2007-March 2009 is for one of our holdings during part of this period. If there is a period with which to "fiddle" with for outcomes (using tickers of your choice), this would be my choice. Some of this period found very large swings; as well as the majority of the "pros" still noting buy points and that all was well; which lends the best of techinical indicators and "talk" for one's decision making. I chose FCNTX, as at the time; this fund remained the "best" of our bunch for "holding"
gains. The other 11 equity funds we held at the time were not doing as well, except PTTRX (10% of the portfolio). Our portfolio obtained its full value on Halloween Day, 2007. It was beat and ripped every whichway for the next 9 months. June 15 of 2008 found 87% of the equity portfolio sold and monies moved to either MM or stable value funds within various accts. Small amounts of FCNTX and VPMCX remained and were ridden through the "train wreck" to be sold in mid-2009, with the monies placed into HY bond funds.
Technicals and many of the above noted factors all played into this "luck"; if to call it that. My father had been diagnosed with terminal cancer early in 2008 and passed away the day Lehman Bros. crashed and burned. I was obviously very consumed by my father's status; and the technical triggers "again" (June shorter term, 50 day; other factors) tripped our house's sale of eqiuity positions. You may note that the 200 day on the chart looks backward relative to the 50 & 100 day; and would have eventually set a trigger point.
FCNTX, a few reference points:
Dec 31, 2007-Mar 17, 2008 -11%
March 17, 2008-May 12, 2008 +11%
May 12, 2008-June 16, 2008 -4.3%
June 16, 2008-Sept 15, 2008 -8.8%
Sept 15, 2008-Oct 16, 2008 -25.6%
Oct 16, 2008-Mar 2, 2009 -17%
I will note too, that I watch CEF and GDX for reference to the precious metals. Using many technical looks, especially GDX has been beat to death. So, is this a deep value play today; or is more value coming? Not unlike the "value" that continued through much of 2008 and became a real value on March 6, 2009.
An aside from a few days ago: I saw that the French market moved +2.4% on one day. I don't think this has anything to do with French economic fundamentals, but with big, hot money making a buck. Europe still has its economic butt in a thin sling.
A vast amount of presentations regarding many technical aspects/training await you at "YouTube". Any number of suitable search wording will find many areas of study.
Lastly, I submit that investing one's own money to sustain a positive forward movement via limiting losses and the value of long term compounding resulting from
capital preservation, is one of the most challenging areas one may encounter in a lifetime.
Thank you again for your time and efforts here, at MFO. I must be away; as the "to-do" awaits me, and hopefully you were able to tolerate and understand my jibber-jabber.
Regards,
Catch