Hi Art,
You ask the perennial investors question. No forecaster ever has the absolutely correct answer since nobody is perfectly prescient or omniscient. Wall Street is littered with fallen experts who had momentary success, but failed to repeat.
This is not a current observation. Market forecasting experts have been doing the public a measurable disservice for over 80 years. As early as 1932 Alfred Cowles published his analysis of the inability of forecasters to forecast. Here is a Link to his classic paper:
http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/archive/reprints/forecasters33.pdfPerhaps the best advice to be given is too not trust professional forecasters of any persuasion.
Bad decisions and Black Swan events happen everywhere. Bad decision making and Black Swan events happen more frequently in both the professional and amateur investment universe.
Indeed I did write "that individual investors make poor timing and product selection decisions". That’s not just me making noise; I am merely reporting investment industry research on investor outcomes.
To put a hard edge to my assertion, allow me to quote a summary conclusion from the 2012 DALBAR QAIB report (their 2013 report which will incorporate data through 2012 will be released shortly).
From DALBAR, their devastating overarching observation is "that individual investors make poor timing and product selection decisions". That’s bad news for the “average” investor. DALBAR finds that the average private equity investor lost 5.73 % in 2011 while the S&P 500 was delivering a plus 2.12 % return. Similarly, the average fixed income investor was only getting a 1.34 % reward while the Barclays aggregate bond market was generating a 7.84% annual return.
The fractional individual investor outcomes relative to what could be achieved from a simple buy-and-hold passive Index investment strategy is persistent over long timeframes. DALBAR demonstrates that the average private investor underperforms these standard benchmarks for 1-year, 3-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 20-year study periods. The average investor plays the Loser’s game. Charles Ellis addresses this issue in his 1998 book “Winning the Loser’s Game”.
Note how I kept emphasizing the “average” investor statistic. I truly do not believe that MFO members are average investors. Although we may not satisfy the Lake Woebegone standard of everyone being above average, I suspect we are as a cohort above the average mutual fund investor. Dissenting opinions to the contrary are invited. That’s why I am at full attention to mutual fund recommendations and analyses offered by MFO itself and MFO participants.
I score my portfolio holdings a
gainst relevant benchmarks on a quarterly basis. Like everyone else, even after careful research and review, I have made bad decisions. Although I infrequently adjust my asset allocation, and when I do, I do so in an incremental fashion, I do constantly search to upgrade poorly performing individual fund holdings.
Certainly, if a fund changes its management, or changes its investment strategy (like morphing from a concentrated to a broadly diversified portfolio), or changes its fee structure, or changes its trading frequency, divestiture decisions are easy if these changes nullify my reasons for initially committing to the fund.
Another more common reason is if the questionable fund consistently underperforms its appointed benchmark. This is not quite so easy a decision since the allowable underachieving time span is a debatable issue; the marketplace might just have momentarily gravitated away from the manager’s style.
So I constantly upgrade, but I am not putting any additional money into the markets. I am not moving into fixed income either; the payouts are barely keeping up with inflation. Our family situation likely differs significantly from most present MFO participants, and that difference is important. Our plans and needs are definitely not yours. However, we are not now abandoning the equity marketplace.
Both my wife and I have been taking MRDs (Minimum Required Distributions) for years and our portfolio’s value has continued to increase. Given our ages, our portfolio structure, and our withdrawal rates, the likelihood of our portfolio survival rate based on Monte Carlo simulations approaches 100 % (never exactly 100 % since it’s a probability estimate). Our portfolio can handle a major market hit and we would still not be in a financial danger zone.
Given our circumstances, our decision is to stand fixed with our slightly upgraded portfolio. The majority of the signals that we use to gauge the equity market’s health (momentum, GDP growth, P/E ratio, inflation) remain positive. This year’s early equity
gains are a little disquieting, and a minor retrenchment would not be surprising.
Black Swans happen with lightening speed, so dedicated vigilant monitoring is the order of the day. That never changes.
In no way do I recommend our course of current inaction to you guys. Each of you is the captain of your own ship and must plot your own compass headings to reach safe harbor.
Good luck to all of us since bad weather is difficult to forecast with high precision.
Best Regards.