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http://www.wintergreenfund.com/downloads/wintergreen_fund_annual_report_20131231.pdfDear Fellow Wintergreen Fund (Trades, Portfolio) Shareholder,
2013 seemed to be the year when the quality, valuations, and risks of businesses ceased to matter to most stock market participants. The Standard & Poor's 500 Composite Index ("S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX)") remarkable rise for the year was its best return since 1997 during the run-up of the technology bubble. The ten best performing names in the S&P 500 had extremely high returns, while carrying an average price-to-earnings multiple of 58. Among these top performers were a struggling retailer (Best Buy Co., Inc. (NYSE:BBY)), a recently bankrupt airline (Delta Air Lines, Inc. (NYSE:DAL)), a brokerage still digging itself out from the finanacial crisis (E TRADE Financial Corporation (NASDAQ:ETFC)), a biotechnology company (Celgene Corporation (NASDAQ:CELG)), and two poster children of a potential new internet bubble (Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX) and Facebook Inc (NASDAQ:FB)). We believe the extraordinary returns on securities we view as highly speculative names are a microcosm of the broader market in 2013 - market participants moving down the quality spectrum in search of returns, without regard for and understanding of risks and valuations. We believe overseas securities languished and emerging markets became the scapegoat of popular opinion.The widespread appetite for risk has been fueled in part by years of artificially low interest rates in most developed markets around the world. When safe high-quality assets yield a fraction of one percent, it isn't surprising to see many investors flock to high-risk, high-reward investments, be it junk bonds or speculative equities. This is exemplified by high-yield bond spreads approaching historical lows, sub-prime mortgages being bid up 17% in the past year, and speculative equities posting triple-digit gains. Classic fundamental analysis of business values, a keystone in true investing, was replaced with an insatiable desire for returns at any cost and often a failure to acknowledge the inherent risk of many investment vehicles.
There is a popular Wall Street notion that momentum trading (i.e., buying stocks that have recently risen in price solely because they have recently risen in price) allows someone to hop from trend to trend as if they are a surfer riding the crest of a wave, and that this will enable one to trade their way to wealth. This "quick and easy" approach to speculating, which has been sold to investors in a relentless media blitz accompanying the latest bull market, is seldom successful in the long-run. More often, people don't get just wet, but financially soaked.
Are you claiming that you only owned those 10 funds (in equities) the last 15+ years and no other fund you bought/sold during that time?Ted, I have owned the 10 funds marked with an asterisk for 15+ years. Yes, I suppose I could prove it if I had to. But I'm not trying to brag, just trying to understand.
Warren Buffett, in his annual letter to shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK/A) last week, said the best investment he ever made was buying a copy of "The Intelligent Investor" by Benjamin Graham.
The billionaire isn't the only prominent investor who considers the 1949 book money well spent. Daniel Fuss of Loomis Sayles & Co., Oaktree Capital Group LLC's Howard Marks and David Herro of Harris Associates LP credit the text with shaping their thinking about how markets work and what it takes to succeed.
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