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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Reasons Why This Market Is Moving Higher
    Reply to @linter: I've purchased what I call a "mental hedge" - I bought some "SH" (Proshares short S&P 500). Its a trade, not an investment.
    It allows me to continue to buy more long positions, but with the knowledge that I can clip some gains if we get a heavy pullback (i.e. sell SH after we've had a correction).
    I've been leaning on MFLDX, GRSPX, VWELX. BPRRX (at Fido) and WAFMX. But my largest position is RPHYX (closed to new investments).
    My portfolio is extremely boring, but I like to limit downside at the expense of large gains.
  • 7 Stock Funds To Prepare For The Worst
    Sorry, but this is a lame article. He found just 7 funds in M* database with 5* and that automatically qualifies them and prepares owners for the worst?
    Does he understand anything about how any of the funds invest? The Putnam fund owns stocks with heavy debt.
    Finally article ends with this incomplete gem of a sentence.
    One caveat: The high cash positions of the seven funds could limit their gains if the stock market doesn’t suffer a correction or something worse. But that danger seems remote because there’s not a single problem for hundreds of mi —.

    Why O Why do I know people out of work and these guys earn a living. Why ?!?!?!?!
  • $247B Pimco Total Return Knocked Off Its Perch As Biggest Mutual Fund
    And not just by a little: Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund (VTSMX) has $40 billion more than Total Return ($287 billion to $247 billion). If I read the article correctly, that reflects about $10 billion of market gains and more than $30 billion of October inflows.
    One wonders if Fidelity should launch a new fund: Fidelity High-Priced Stock (HYPEX)?
    David
  • Looking for articles on Mutual Funds that are TAX EFFICIENT !
    I see by the hands on the clock (or the page on the calendar) - it's that time of year again - capital gains season.
    Try as I might, I couldn't find a video, but what sticks in my mind is Jim Lebenthal's admonition: "It's not how much you earn that counts, it's how much you keep." I would add, it's not how much you pay in taxes, but how much you keep.
    Words to keep in mind when talking about tax efficiency. Take two share classes of the same fund - the one that has the lower expenses (e.g. Vanguard Admiral as opposed to Vanguard Investor), will be less tax efficient. USA Today just had an article (linked to in another thread) lamenting that $10K invested in Fidelity Contra lost $1,159 to taxes over the past ten years. It suggested using a fund like Vanguard Tax-Managed Cap Ap (VTCLX). It also said that the after-tax returns (over ten years) were 9.8% (annualized) for FCNTX, and just 7.89% for VTCLX, without seeing any irony. The most tax efficient fund is one that earns you no money.
    As to getting lists of funds with tax data, here's a M* Fund Spy article explaining its tax cost ratio figure (including formulas) and how to coax that information from its premium fund screener. You can also use M*'s free fund compare tool to build your own list - add whatever funds you want, and when you show the comparison of funds, go to the Risk & Tax Data view. This gives you the 3, 5, and 10 year tax cost ratios for all the funds you included.
    Some things to keep in mind about tax calculations - they're usually based on the highest tax rates; it's rarely obvious whether calculations for previous years were done based on tax rates in effect those years or by applying today's rates retroactively.
    Finally, outside of data found in prospectuses, one rarely sees the effect of all the tax liabilities - including the cap gains tax due when the shares are sold. Funds that don't recognize gains will cost you a pretty penny (in long term cap gains tax) when you cash out, because the shares will have appreciated so much. If you sell in less than a few years, there's little value in not recognizing the cap gains as you go along (i.e. tax efficiency achieved this way doesn't make a big impact on net gains after sale and taxes).
    All of this is a long winded way of saying be careful what you ask for. You may get numbers to compare, but those numbers may not accurately reflect how tax-efficient these funds are for you.
  • David's November Commentary is posted
    Nice distribution this month @ about a 4.35 % annual rate.Thanks to David and other posters to alert many of us to this fund and it's purpose in our investment and everyday financial planning.
    Dividend and Capital Gains Distributions RPHYX
    Distribution
    Date Distribution 10/31/2013
    NAV 9.98 Long-Term
    Capital Gain 0 Short-Term
    Capital Gain 0 Return of
    Capital 0 Dividend
    Income Distribution 0.0364
    Total 0.0364
    10/31/2013
  • The Smaller Ther Are, The Harder They Fall ?
    ARIVX an absolute dog of a fund with terrible returns the past year compared to its peers. I know, I know, the academics say give a fund a few years before throwing it to the curb. That's hogwash! One year returns DO count and most especially in years like 2013. I am more or less (less than more) retired from the investment/trading game and I can tell you one year returns do count. My retirement nest egg would have been adversely impacted had I missed any of the bigger percentage gains years of the past ala 91,95, 98, 99, 03, 09 and so on. 2013 has been one of those can't miss years for the younger crowd here and even if you are an old timer the 5% returns of ARIVX just don't cut it.
  • What would you do with $2k / mo?
    I'm trying to understand your thinking on taxes. Primecap Odyssey Growth has a very low turnover (14%), very low tax cost ratios (0.34% or less 1/3/5 year), and less in unrealized cap gains (32.64%) than New Horizons (45.34%). New Horizons has a higher (albeit still quite low) turnover rate of 35% and higher tax cost ratios (0.79% or more 1/3/5 year).
    It's somewhat difficult to make sense out of the embedded cap gains, since many (most?) funds will have large distributions this year that may reduce those figures significantly. In any case, I wouldn't start investing until they have their annual cap gains distributions.
    That said, I did a quick search for funds with moderate to low (under 75%) turnover, five year tax cost ratios under 1% and three year under 0.75%, and cap gains exposure under 50% (which is still huge). I threw in expenses under category average, and excluded bond funds. (That latter one, when one excludes muni bonds, kicks out a lot of funds.)
    Keep in mind that this screen automatically excludes funds under five years old.
    Next, you wanted something with high volatility - I added a three year standard deviation over 15 (based on the funds you suggested).
    To prune further, I added the following screens:
    - drop the bottom 10% (1* funds - past bad performance has persistence, even if past good performance does not)
    - drop sector funds, single nation funds (China, Japan)
    - dropped leveraged funds (Direxion, ProFunds Ultra/Inverse, Direxion 2X, Rydex 2X - these showed up as Trading-Leveraged Equities - might meet your paramters, but you're on your own here.
    This left about 375 funds. Flipping through them quickly by category (and using my own knowledge of what's open and available NL, either inherently or via brokerage platforms, and also applying my own arbitrary judgment as well as past performance), here are some possibilities by category. Note that the only ones I'm really comfortable with are Pacific/Asian, Foreign Large Blend, MidCap Growth (POAGX), Small Blend (maybe), World
    Emerging Markets (27 funds passed screen): Schroder EM Equity Adv (SEMVX)
    Pacific/Asian (3 funds): Matthews Asia Growth Inv (MPACX)
    Europe (3): TRPrice European (PRESX)
    Foreign Large Bl (44): Artisan Int'l Inv (ARTIX), Harbor Int'l Inv (HIINX)
    Foreign Large Gr (16): Scout Int'l (UMBWX)
    Foreign Large Value (10): RidgeWorth Int'l Equity I (STITX - NTF/low min via brokers)
    Foreign Small/Mid Bl (4): Vanguard Int'l Expl (VINEX - the only one of the four avail NL to retail investors)
    Foreign Small/Mid Gr (7): Wasatch Int'l Gr (WAIGX; ARTJX is closed)
    Large Blend (3): Janus Contrarian (JSVAX - the only NL one avail to retail investors; note: not advised, as it recently lost its excellent managers)
    Large Growth (20): Principal Large Cap Growth I, Class A (PLGAX - NTF/load-waived at Fidelity)
    Large Value (12): Sound Shore (SSHFX)
    Latin America (2): JPMorgan Latin America A (JLTAX - NTF/load-waived via brokers)
    Mid Blend (22): Fidelity Leveraged Co (FLVCX), or any extended market index fund
    Mid Growth (35): POAGX
    Mid Value (17): Hotchkiw & Wiley Mid Cap Value A (HWMAX - NTF/load-waived at Fidelity)
    Pacific/Asia ex-Japan (1): none avail NL
    Small Blend (58): Homestead (HSCSX) for concentrated fund, Glenmede Small Cap Equity (GTCSX) for more diversified
    Small Growth (42): TRP Diversified Small Cap (TRSSX; ARTSX is closed)
    Small Value (30): Skyline Special Equities (SKSEX - a bit pricey at 1.32%)
    World (27): Artisan Global Opp (ARTRX - finally, an open Artisan fund, and less expensive than ARTGX), Oakmark Global/Global Select (OAKGX, OAKWX)
    To summarize, I'd focus on MPACX, ARTIX, ARTRX, OAKGX, OAKWX, HIINX, POAGX, and maybe HSCSX, GTCSX. (If you have over $100K in combined Artisan funds, their closed funds are available to you as well.)
  • Up funds on a down day
    Reply to @PRESSmUP:
    This fund's performance seems consistently better than Vanguards Capital Opportunity fund which I believe is managed by Primecap as well. Is this fund available NFT? Thanks.
  • The Closing Bell ! S&P 500 Closes At Record On Fed Expectations
    Since funds must advertise on a standardized calendar year (and calendar quarter) basis (and not their varied fiscal bases), a run up today doesn't provide them window dressing.
    However, I believe that the amount of gains they distribute are based on their fiscal year (not 100% certain, though); in that case, let's hope they didn't decide to recognize their gains from today's appreciation.
  • Stock Market Is Currently Overvalued And Irrational to 2013 Nobelist
    Hi hank and others,
    I make this type of post for informational purposes only. It has been my experience when I bought at or towards the top in my prior years of investing it seems it was not too long after that there would come a good size pull back … and, with what, the smile on my face turned into a frown as I went form having gains to losses.
    I believe all investors should invest based upon their risk tolerance, goals, time horizon and capacity. Now, I not speaking about those that take up positions for momentum based strategies as this falls more under trading than investing, to me. I think sometimes the two get mixed as being one in the same. An investor, to me, is invested for the long term picture and builds their positions up over time while a trader is in and out of positions and only holds these positions for short periods of time. And, they usualy employee some type of timming strategy. At times, I have employeed some trading strategies myself. No doubt this is currently a market for traders. As an investor, I established my core positions years ago when valuations were more reasonable and the markets were undersold. Since then, I have added to them through time when value could be found. Again ... currently, I am finding little value.
    In addition, I cut my special equity spiff positions loose some months ago ... and, yes I could trim some more (core holdings). And indeed, I may do so sometime next year if the equity train continues its upward climb. Currently, Morningstar is reporting that stocks are overbought by about five percent. In general, an investor is now paying $105.00 for $100.00 worth of assets by their valuation measures. I strive to buy when good discounts are available. Can stocks go higher? Absoutely. It seems the high valuation water mark reported by Morningstar came in December of 2004 at 114%.
    http://www.morningstar.com/market-valuation/market-fair-value-graph.aspx
    Thanks for stopping by and making your comments.
    My best,
    Skeeter
  • Surging Stocks & Higher Tax Rates May Mean Bigger Tax Bills For Fund Investors This Year
    It is a good idea to harvest "lost" now if one anticipates large capital gain.
  • Surging Stocks & Higher Tax Rates May Mean Bigger Tax Bills For Fund Investors This Year
    From review of some of my mutual fund companies published estimated capital gain distribution amounts for this year it appears distribution amounts are estimated to be ahead of recent years. With this, I am anticipating a larger tax bill this year.
    Skeeter
  • John Hussman: Market Valuations Are 'Obscene'
    I have owned HSGFX for many years, and have suffered like the other holders (about 5% of my portfolio). Based on John Hussman's education, he is very smart - you don't get into Stanford grad school without extremely high scores. This most likely translates into a high IQ >135. I have a degree in chemical engineering and an MBA (finance), and I read (and understand) his weekly newsletter. I think it's well written and very insightful. I think he is absolutely correct in his analysis of the markets. However, like others I think his investment model is flawed and overly complicated. My investment model enables me to participate in the upside gains and I maintain a trailing "stop limit" buy order on ETF SPXU (3x S&P negative) as insurance against the market tanking. The general investing public is buying and selling without any regard for value. Eventually there has to be a day of reckoning, but why not take the ride up. His biggest mistake was not getting into the market after the big 2008 crash. I know about his stress testing... That proved to me his business instincts are not great - if common sense disagrees with your financial model, please go with the common sense. Please realize that all of these models have ton of assumptions...
    Buffet:
    "Success in investing doesn't correlate with I.Q. once you're above the level of 25. Once you have ordinary intelligence, what you need is the temperament to control the urges that get other people into trouble in investing."
    ”Beware of geeks bearing formulas.”
    It takes a really smart guy to really mess up an investment portfolio - read When Genius Failed. Some of the smartest guys in finance bankrupted their fund, and needed to be rescued by the fed. The trades were so complicated no one could figure them out. A fund manager with average intelligence and good business instincts would likely never have this problem.
  • ANY SUGGESTIONS ON FLEXIBLE FUNDS...

    Might I suggest Litman Gregory Masters Alternative Strategies Fund:
    MASFX
    MASNX
    The portfolio is split amongst DoubleLine, FPA, Loomis Sayles and Water Island Capital.
    They have quite a bit of flexibility...
  • Weitz to Yacktman Hold Cash as Managers Find Few Bargains
    I'll piggy-back on my own thread but with respect to stock-oriented funds - who has started the re balancing process in light of the fabulous returns ytd? I am now or very soon will take steps to start re balancing or in other words trimming some profits off the table.
    What a fabulous year so far!!!
    YTD Performance of basket of some popular funds - As of 10/26/2013:
    POAGX: 46.61% (Primecap Aggressive Growth)
    VHCOX: 36.14% (Vanguard Capital Opportunity)
    VCVLX: 36.07% (Vanguard Capital Value)
    VDIGX: 25.05% (Vanguard Dividend Growth)
    VDAIX: 23.38% (Vanguard Dividend Appreciation)
    VPCCX: 30.68% (Vanguard Primecap Core)
    VIMSX: 29.26% (Vanguard Midcap Index)
    YAFFX: 23.73% (Yacktman Focused)
    OAKGX: 30.01% (Oakmark Global)
    OAKWX: 28.70% (Oakmark Global Select)
    ARTGX: 25.81% (Artisan Global Value)
    GPGOX: 32.66% (Grandeur Peak Global Opp)
    OAKIX: 28.67% (Oakmark International)
    FPACX: 17.34% (FPA Crescent)
    PRWCX: 18.43% (TRP Capital Appreciation)
    DODGX: 31.51% (Dodge & Cox Stock)
    FAIRX: 32.95% (Fairholme)
    KBWB: 28.16% (Powershares KBW Bank ETF)
    ARTQX: 30.59% (Artisan Midcap Value)
    ARTKX: 26.20% (Artisan International Value)
    IVWIX: 16.10% (IVA Worldwide)
    TIBIX: 16.10% (Thornburg Income Builder)
    BERIX: 13.88% (Berwyn Income)
    WAMVX: 33.83 (Wasatch Microcap Value)
    RYTRX: 27.46% (Royce Total Return)
    FMIHX: 24.85% (FMI Largecap)
    FMIMX: 25.29% (FMI Common)
    ARTMX: 33.06% (Artisan Midcap)
  • Looking for advise as to how to deploy cash
    Mark,
    I'm mostly interested in income (vs capital gains) but I understand the need to have stocks and those gains. In the coming years 5+ years I think outside the US will have good potential for growth - weaker $, stronger economies outside the USA.
    In the past, while working, I selected funds, set up automatic investment and forgot about them.
    In some ways, I view myself as my own contrary indicator - if I want to get in - it probably a TOP! That is why I also asked about when to average into the recommendations.
    I looked at davidrmoran's suggestions and I don't think they fit my goals - but I'll look at them again.