Another Step Back 3:25 PM Seeking Alpha
GDX
Gold miner ETF sinks to five-year low, gold closes at lowest since July
The Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX -5.5%) plunges to a fresh five-year low thanks to the newest PMI manufacturing data, which climbed to the highest reading since 2011; BTIG analyst Dan Greenhaus calls the data "stunning,” and bad for precious metals.Comex gold dropped $28.50, or 2.3%, to settle at $1,221.90 for its lowest close since July; the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) is down 2.5% to kick off December’s trading.Silver slumped 3.7% to $19.29, also the lowest since July.ABX -5.3%, NEM -3.8%, GG -4.6%, KGC -3.4%, GFI -3.5%, NGD -8.2%, EGO -7.5%, AEM -7%, AUY -5.5%, AGI -8.9%, SLW -5.7%.Other ETFs: GDXJ, NUGT, IAU, PHYS, DUST, SGOL, UGL, DGP, GLL, GLDX, DZZ, UGLD, DGL, DGZ, AGOL, GLDI, DGLD, GGGG, RING, PSAU, TBAR, JNUG, UBG, JDST, SLV, AGQ, SIVR, ZSL, USLV, DBS, DSLV, SLVO, USV.
Not a precious metal miner,but a continuing trend:via S A
RIO
Rio Tinto plans to cut capital spending 20% each year through 2015
Rio Tinto (RIO) is the latest miner to guide capital spending lower, announcing a 20% capex cut in each of the next three years to ~$8B in 2015; iron ore output will reach ~350M metric tons/year.In an investor presentation to be delivered tomorrow, RIO says its YTD spending is ~50% lower than in 2012 and has already exceeded its target of $750M in full-year spending on exploration and evaluation.
Casey Research
Rock & Stock Stats
Last
One Month Ago
One Year Ago
Gold 1,252.10 1,345.50 1,729.50
Silver 20.03 22.49 34.35
Copper 3.19 3.28 3.59
Oil 92.72 98.20 88.07
Gold Producers (GDX) 22.28 25.78 48.04
Gold Junior Stocks (GDXJ) 32.50 39.26 87.60
Silver Stocks (SIL) 11.65 13.32 23.03
TSX (Toronto Stock Exchange) 13.395.40 13,440.61 12,202.85
TSX Venture 934.89 968.44 1,218.38

Maybe but, if so, this fund wouldn't be evidence of it. RiverNorth hired M&N to manage a portion of the RiverNorth fund in the same style that M&N uses on their Dividend Focus Fund (MNDFX). MNDFX is just over five years old. Two of the founding managers of the fund are still with it and I spent an hour with one of them (Chris Petrosino) at Morningstar in June. Very bright, low-key guy who pointed out that M&N launched their fund in the midst of a market collapse but the research convinced them that dividends were a source of re-investable income, a measure of corporate strength and a check on management's capital allocation dreams. MNDFX has been a solid corporate citizen - low profile, low expense, low turnover, low risk with more-or-less average returns.
As I'll mention in this month's essay, the RiverNorth folks want to hold off talking until the hand over becomes final. Looking at a chart of the RiverNorth fund and the Manning & Napier fund suggests that the RN sleeve has been consistently more profitable than the MN one, which I suspect explains the change.
For what that's worth,
David

From Seeking Alpha
Gundlach: Time to buy interest rate risk
"People are absolutely freaking out about interest-rate risk," says Jeff Gundlach, sitting down with Robert Shiller to size up the investment landscape. Ever the contrarian, Gundlach suggests last year's 1.4% low in the 10-year Treasury yield could still get taken out. The catalyst? "You never know until after the fact; otherwise, it would be priced in the market. But there is no inflation." To see "freaking out" in a picture, check out the price charts of the mortgage REITs, particularly the two proxies for riding the long end of the curve - Annaly (NLY) and American Capital Agency (AGNC). Gundlach: "You can take advantage of pockets of opportunity in what people don't want ... If you're willing to take the interest-rate [risk], you can get yields of 11% in the agency mortgage market."Constructive on housing (but not homebuilders), Gundlach is also bullish on non-agency mortgage paper, calling it the cheapest sector in fixed income on a risk-adjusted basis. Fans of also beaten-up non-agency mREITs like American Capital Mortgage (MTGE), MFA Financial, Dynex (DX), and Two Harbors (TWO) may want to take notice.Mortgage REIT ETFs: REM, MORT, MORLLong-duration Treasury ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TTT, TMF, TLH, ZROZ, SBND, DLBS, VGLT, UBT, TLO, LBND, TENZ, TYBS, DLBL
Also A Good Read
Thirdly, monetary policy is being enlisted to try to generate the economic growth that politicians need to meet spending and entitlement pledges made to voters.
"Long term, it's not so much a financial crisis that we face. It's more a political and social crisis because these promises that we have made for ourselves will be broken," King told the BreakingViews conference.
Seen in that light, if the West is in the grip of ‘secular stagnation', as Summers suggested, the welfare state will have to shrink or taxes will have to rise to pay for it.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/11/29/us-economy-global-stagnation-insight-idUSBRE9AS03O20131129

Reply to @Ted: Thanks...always good hearing it from the horse's mouth. Seems to be a fund with a flexible mandate.
from your link:
"Invests up and down the capital structure, primarily in high-yield bonds, bank loans, convertible securities and preferreds"
Also...pretty steep fee structure,

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1370177/000119312513456268/d636189d497.htm
Excerpt:
"On November 20, 2013, the Board of Trustees of RiverNorth Funds voted to approve the termination of the Subadvisory Agreement between RiverNorth Capital Management, LLC and Manning & Napier Advisors, LLC related to the RiverNorth/Manning & Napier Dividend Income Fund (the “Fund”). Effective January 1, 2014, RiverNorth Capital Management, LLC will take over full management of the Fund and the Fund’s name will be changed to the RiverNorth Equity Opportunity Fund..."

Reply to @kevindow:
Hi kevindow and others,
No doubt the market can trend higher as you have pointed out from the Novemeber 1st date. What was conveyed to me, by the article, was that there are some investment headwinds brewing that could become storms sometime in perhaps January as this is when our elected in Washington will be revisiting the debt ceiling and budget issues. There are many indicators that score the market as being ouverbought as I write. With this and to me the article was conveying that for those that have some good unrealized gains and do not wish to sell their positions now might be a good time to buy some protection in the form of long dated put spreads. In this way, should the market pull back ten or more percent then one has some protection against this anticipated downdraft should it turn into a good size extended downdraft then with the long dated put spreads you have someting that will absorb some of the downdraft. This, seems logical to me.
Most of my defense is found in my asset allocation with cash being currently at about 20% of my portfolio. Some more protection can be found in some funds that I hold that can, if warranted, short. Plus I am overweight the defensive sectors by about 15%. I plan to revisit my portfolio at the first of the year and might trim my equity allocation back by about five percent, which is currently about 45% of the portfolio, to about 40%. While, I don't plan to sell out of equities, I just might sell down some of my equity positions. After all I soon turn sisty six and retired. I have seen too often equity gains get vaporized. This seems to be an unpresidented long run for equities without a major pullback. When it comes, I think there is a good number of investors that will be quick to sell to lock in their gains and this could easily become a rout as valuations drop resulting in margin calls.
Anyway, this is my current thinking. And, let us not forget, it is our different outlooks and perspectives that make the market.
Thanks for stopping by and expressing your view and planned course of action. It is indeed respected.
Old_Skeet

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1300746/000089418913006590/intrepid_497e.htm
Excerpt:
"Closing of Investor Class Shares of Intrepid Income Fund
The Board of Trustees (the “Board”) of Intrepid Capital Management Funds Trust (the “Trust”), based on the recommendation of Intrepid Capital Management, Inc. (the “Adviser”) has approved closing the Investor Class shares of the Intrepid Income Fund (the “Fund”) as of the close of business on January 31, 2014. Accordingly, as of January 31, 2014, the Fund will no longer offer Investor Class shares as a class of the Fund.
On January 31, 2014, the Fund will convert its Investor Class shares into Institutional Class shares. Prior to the conversion, shareholders of the Investor Class may redeem those shares as described in the Fund’s Prospectus.
Please see the Fund’s prospectus for detailed information about the fees and expenses associated with the Institutional Class shares. Set forth below is a table showing the fees and expenses of the Investor Class shares and the Institutional Class shares, as reflected in the Prospectus..."

Thanks for the link ! I always enjoy reading his thoughtful letters. And I continue to entertain buying some Oaktree Capital (OAK), which has performed well since inception.
Kevin

Hi David,
Thanks so much. Do you think of Oakseed as similar to BMPEX in terms of the role it would play in your portfolio? They seem to both have interests aligned with investors, value focus, U.S. equity focus, capital preservation, sleep well at night type funds -- although Seedx can go anywhere if they so choose. thanks

Hi, guys.
The question of the fund's tax efficiency came up in the call. Oakseed just published their preliminary distribution estimates:
Record Date: December 6, 2013 Ex-Dividend Date: December 9, 2013
Investor Class Estimated Income Per Share*: $0.03 to $0.04
Investor Class Estimated Short-Term Capital Gain Per Share*: $0.04 to $0.05
Institutional Class Estimated Income Per Share*: $0.05 to $0.06
Institutional Class Estimated Short-Term Capital Gain Per Share*: $0.04 to $0.05
No Long-Term Capital Gain Distribution
The (*) just reinforces the "estimated, not yet final" piece. The fund's current NAV is $12.15.
David

Assuming that it's all long term capital gains, should any consideration be given to selling "covered" vs "uncovered" shares of the same fund?

Comparing FPNIX directly with BSBIX, the Baird fund seems to generally outperform FPNIX by a few basis points. But that comes at a cost - BSBIX swooned with much of the market in 2008, FPNIX didn't. (And BSBIX made up most of the difference the next year.) With BSBIX, you're getting a well managed, vanilla fund. FPNIX may place a bit more emphasis on capital preservation - it has the flexibility to move around more.
It likely won't make too much of a difference one way or the other. Looking at the yields, though, I have to wonder whether it might not make more sense to simply ladder CDs for the short end of the portfolio. One could use, say, 18 month CDs, using 5% of the money allocated to short term holdings each month to buy a CD.
For example, GE Capital Bank is currently paying 1.15% on 18 month CDs and will pay out interest monthly if you want it. Trading about 0.15% of yield for not worrying about rising rates seems worth considering. In New York, Doral Bank is paying 1.20% on a 12 month CD, and 1.25% on a 18 month CD (and will also send you the interest if you prefer).
One could open a suite of 5 year CDs at Ally Bank. These pay 1.60%, and have only a 60 day withdrawal penalty (if opened by Dec 7th). If you want to bail after a year, you'll have made about the same yield as with BSBIX (current SEC yield). For any CDs held longer, the yield is greater. That is, unless rates go up - and then one can pay the 60 day penalty and start over (or buy into a short duration bond fund then, without having lost principal). Having multiple CDs would enable you to get money out of one of them without closing all the deposits.
No matter what one does, it's hard to eek out much of a return without giving up a good measure of safety. Any differences in yield or safety among the alternative above are relatively minor (compared with, say, long term bonds).
With respect to TGBAX, try looking at Firstrade. Here's a thread we had on Hasentab's funds that covered buying them.
http://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/index.php?p=/discussion/7271/emglo-debt-funds-michael-hasenstab/p1

It is one of very, very few equity or allocation funds that has NEVER lost money (ignoring inflation or cost of money) over any 3 year period for the past 20 years. See article on Permanent Loss of Capital in David's current commentary:
http://www.mutualfundobserver.com/2013/11/november-1-2013/
I guess the 6 Million Dollar Question: Will the fund's strategy work as well for the next 20 years, like it has done for the past 20 years?

Depends why you bought it. If you want to make money in the near term - sell it and go buy something else. (Ted has already declared that the S&P will be higher at year's end:-) But if your diversification strategy includes owning some out of favor assets to balance-off the hot investments you own, than like Jerry, myself, and others you may still want to own it. Most of the things PRPFX owns are out of favor and have been for a couple years. Let's see .... Gold for instance. Last I checked, the gold fund I bailed out of this spring, OPGSX, was off 40+% YTD - and MAY GO LOWER! Foreign currencies held by the fund have suffered this year against the mighty dollar. And longer duration Treasury bonds? We all know the story there.
I don't have the skills, capital, temperament or desire to go out in the market and buy gold bullion, silver, Swiss Francs, global real estate, aggressive growth stocks, and long duration U.S. Treasury bonds. Yet I'd like some exposure there to balance my more traditional equity and domestic bond holdings. So the fund works for me whether it makes money or not. However, not everyone would agree with holding this fund - or the assets I've mentioned separately for that matter.
We've been round and round on the board about the issue of assigning funds to "peer groups." Bob C has had a lot to say on that. Frankly, I find such comparisons always difficult - but especially difficult and suspect for something as uniquely structured as PRPFX.

FYI:
Regards,
Tedhttp://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=242414700
Lipper Fixed-Income Category Returns: http://www.allaboutfunds.com/performance/fixed_iops.pdf

Even the inventor of the permanent portfolio thought of it as a capital preservation tool and NOT a growth tool. Underperformance now can be compared to outperformance in 2008. I use it as one of my chicken ways to invest in gold as part of capital preservation . My other tool is a Canada fund.Neither has done well lately but in total its only about 5% of my portfolio so its easy to "stay the course.
Bottom line if you area conservative investor something like Vanguard Wellesley VWINX and or T.R.P Capital Appreciation PRWCX (a bolder choice ) could be combined with a portion in Permanent Portfolio.
There are some on this board who are interested in always doing well and trading to do that. Tax considerations encourage a buy and hold startegy in my taxable account. I try a little to market time in my 401k( though I call it rebalancing at random times) but while my fund choice in that account is fine none are the smallish funds often discussed here.

bnath001-
For some of your safe taxable money, you should look at I-bonds. Your money is 100% safe and you also get inflation protection and tax deferral. There are not many investments that can guarantee that. If you have already accumulated a lot of money from your career you may not need much more real growth in capital. Just keeping up with inflation may be good enough.
Since you are a "tech" guy, you should check out the online firm Wealthfront as an alternative to a financial advisor. They only charge 0.25% a year management fee and zero commissions for the underlying ETF trading. Over 10% of Twitter's employees use them to manage the wealth acquired from the recent IPO.
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/michael-santoli/twitter-insiders-flock-to-high-tech--low-touch-wealth-advisor-174159109.html
Best,
George..

I think you are right MaxRialystock.
My biggest fear: Loosing the principal. Being in IT indusustry, don't know how much money I can make in the future...I don't want to loose the capital I have carefullty saved. that is the biggest concern.
I don't if I can give the reins to a professional and sleep welll.
Looks like I need to go to Himalayas and meditate for a while and think this through.
Regards...always respected opinions from this forum
nath

or too many somewhat similar funds, and the company goes through the efficiency/ cost cutting exercise. or the initial fad idea of the fund (like multiple internet funds in the 1999) no longer works. or a unique "star" pm departs/ leaves/dies.
since mutual funds are valued daily and, generally, invest in liquid securities, you'll get your portion of the fund's value. the liquidation usually takes anywhere from a month to several days depending on the liquidity of the underlying asset class. some credit or microcap stuff being worked through for several weeks, and large cap equity, in a day or two. you do get somewhat increased transaction costs imbedded in the latest NAV, so it is probably doesn't make sense to hang on until the end. also, any merger or liquidation causes realization of various gains and losses and might trigger significant taxes if held in the taxable account.

AMANX is up rather nicely. You did well to take profits. You have not been in it for very long, though. Expect SHORT-term gains, and the higher tax that goes with it. If you have a plan, stick to it. Then all this market-hype will not be what makes you decide to trade or sell or buy. Me? I just simply waited way too long. My "problem" is on the other side of the coin, at the other extreme.