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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Behind Private Equity's Curtain
    @Ted
    What, only one position?
    I think you need a diversifier. Something more primal, red in tooth and claw, slathered in hot sauce (like Famous Dave's Devil's Spit). How about something like.....ummmmm........ Bain Capital! :)
  • 2014 estimated (preliminary) year end distributions
    I've found in past years the distribution totals were fairly accurate but would shift a little in the amounts of dividends vs. short term cap gains vs. long term capital gains.
    These gains are based only of the gains and losses the fund incurred when selling a security that was in the fund.
    This distribution has nothing to do with the YTD or any other investor performance, although a fund that has lost money is likely to have more shares redeemed by shareholders. This could force the fund to sell some assets to pay the shareholders getting out. Some funds try to manage the distributions to minimize taxable income passed to the remaining shareholders, and some don't.
    Dave
  • Funds For A Volatile Market
    FYI: These mutual funds have done well in past downturns, without missing out on the big gains when the market reverses itself. Plus, how to evaluate the best funds for a volatile market.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://online.barrons.com/articles/funds-for-a-volatile-market-1413611068#printMode
  • The Closing Bell: U.S. Stocks Rally; Dow Enjoys Triple-Digit Revival
    FYI: Following steep losses and massive intraday swings over the past five days the U.S. stock market is wrapping up the week on a relative high note, with the main benchmarks registering more than 1% gains on Friday.
    Earlier in the week, investors exhibited panicky selling behavior as concerns over global growth, volatility in oil and the dollar, as well as fear of the spread of Ebola converged.
    On Friday, stocks got a boost from upbeat earnings reports from heavyweights, such as General Electric, Honeywell and Morgan Stanley. Those cheery earnings reports may be just what the markets need
    Regards,
    Ted
    Markets At A Glance: http://markets.wsj.com/us
    WSJ Slant: http://online.wsj.com/articles/u-s-stock-futures-rally-amid-upbeat-earnings-reports-1413548278#printMode
  • the supreme court and the evil or stupid fiduciary
    I think we all hope the workers win this case even if we consider ourselves Capitalists (note capital C)
    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/401-k-plan-really-owes-013222203.html
  • Fidelity: Why Market Volatility is Back
    RE: "The U.S. dollar is soaring and deflation fears are mounting. Stock benchmarks are swinging wildly as global growth fears rise." ... Charles Dickens might love this. "Swinging wildly" has a nice ring. But, is this kind of hype typical of Fidelity's communications with their investors? I hope not. (Perhaps that's the reason I don't own any of their funds.)
    Yes - there's some underlying truth to each point. The dollar has been very strong (sometimes seen as a positive) due to the improving condition of the U.S. economy relative to much of the world and expectations interest rates will be rising here. However, the recent 9% retrenchment in the S&P doesn't even qualify as a normal "correction" under the generally accepted definition of 10% or more. Repeat: Not even a "correction" by standard definition. ... So, another 9% off relatively soon wouldn't surprise me. Nor is it in itself cause for alarm. That's what stock markets do - and have historically done. They rise and fall.
    As guardians of their investors' money, Fidelity owes it to them to shoot straight. Skip the hyperbole. Tell them that valuations are stretched in many markets and they shouldn't expect the kind of stock market gains going forward they've seen over the past 5 years. Caution them about the significant dangers bonds face should rates rise. Point out market sectors where valuations look most attractive. Talk about the virtues of rebalancing periodically for most investors. Above all else, remind them that equity investing is for the long term as measured in years - not day to day or weekly.
  • Causeway Funds in registration
    http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1156906/000119312514373975/d804455d497.htm
    497 1 d804455d497.htm CAUSEWAY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT TRUST
    Causeway International Opportunities Fund
    Institutional Class (CIOIX)
    Investor Class (CIOVX)
    SUPPLEMENT DATED OCTOBER 16, 2014
    TO THE PROSPECTUS DATED OCTOBER 15, 2014
    THIS SUPPLEMENT PROVIDES NEW AND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION BEYOND THAT CONTAINED IN THE PROSPECTUS AND SHOULD BE READ IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE PROSPECTUS.
    On October 15, 2014, the Causeway International Opportunities Fund (the “Fund”) converted from a “fund of funds” to a Fund making direct investments in securities. Effective as of the date hereof, the seventh paragraph under “Taxes” in the Prospectus is superseded and replaced in its entirety with:
    If you buy shares when the Fund has earned or realized, but not yet distributed, ordinary income or net capital gains, you will be “buying a dividend” by paying the full price of the shares and then receiving a portion of the price back in the form of a taxable distribution. You can avoid this situation by waiting to invest until after the record date for the distribution. The Fund expects to pay significantly increased taxable distributions of net short-term capital gain (that is, the excess of short-term capital gains over short-term capital losses) and net capital gain (that is, the excess of net long-term capital gain over net short-term capital loss) in 2014 due to its conversion on October 15, 2014 from a “fund of funds” structure to directly investing in portfolio securities. This is because when it converted, the Fund redeemed shares in underlying Causeway Funds that had appreciated from the time the Fund purchased the shares, causing the Fund to realize capital gain during 2014. Taxable investors receiving the distributions should be prepared to pay taxes on them (at ordinary income rates for the net short-term capital gain and, for non-corporate shareholders, at the 15% and 20% maximum rates mentioned above for the net capital gain). However, if you are investing in the Fund through a tax-advantaged retirement plan or account, or are a tax-exempt investor, there will be no tax consequences to you from those distributions.
    PLEASE RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT FOR FUTURE REFERENCE.
    CCM-SK-022-0100
  • Any funds which have preserved capital ?
    I'm not sure whether the question is asking about relative preservation or absolute preservation of capital. I agree with hank that the latter is not especially interesting - I'd go further and add that there is nothing magical about the number 0.000%.
    That said, another sparkling usual suspect is GLD (or QGLDX or ...)
    I'd be interesting in knowing what funds did significantly better than their peers in any category (and do any of those funds show halfway decent figures in up markets?).
  • Any funds which have preserved capital ?
    The usual suspects: Cash, high quality bonds, and bearish funds like BEARX and HSGFX usually hold up much better during equity sell-offs. Those last two should be looking at 3-5% gains over the past 3-4 weeks. But that's just a guess. Haven't bothered to check. Gold has also held up well in recent weeks, rebounding from near $1200 to around $1240 today (but is still off big-time for the year). I'll note, FWIW, that Price's RPGAX which dabbles in hedge funds has held up better than some other balanced funds - but has still declined.
    I'm curious however as to the purpose of the question. To me it's very much an academic question in the sense that someone might include small portions of these funds for balance within a long-term oriented portfolio, but none (with the possible exception of RPGAX) look that attractive as core holdings. Just MHO. Thanks for the question.
    Here's a link to some top performers - one month. Enjoy :)
    http://www.barchart.com/funds/1month.php
  • Any funds which have preserved capital ?
    Curios to know if any funds have preserved capital during this downturn ?
  • American Beacon International Equity Index Fund to close to new investors
    http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/809593/000080959314000116/ieisoftclose.htm
    497 1 ieisoftclose.htm
    American Beacon International Equity Index Fund
    Supplement dated October 15, 2014
    To the Prospectus and Summary Prospectus dated April 30, 2014
    The information below supplements the Prospectus dated April 30, 2014 and is in addition to any other supplement(s):
    The following information is inserted at the end of the section titled "Purchase and Sale of Fund Shares" on page 9 of the Prospectus and page 4 of the Summary Prospectus is deleted and replaced with the following:
    The American Beacon International Equity Index Fund (the "Fund") will close to new investors as of the close of business on December 31, 2014. Existing shareholders as of that date may continue to purchase, redeem or exchange shares of the Fund on any business day, which is any day the New York Stock Exchange is open for business.
    The following information is inserted as the final paragraph to the section titled "Purchase and Redemption of Fund Shares – Eligibility" on page 18 of the Prospectus:
    Effective as of the close of business on December 31, 2014, the Fund will close to new investors. The Fund will continue to accept additional investments (including reinvestments of dividends and capital gain distributions) from: (1) existing shareholders of the Fund who had open accounts as of December 31, 2014; or (2) participants in most qualified retirement plans if the Fund was designated as an investment option as of December 31, 2014. Investors through financial intermediaries who did not have a funded position through the intermediary by December 31, 2014 may not invest in the Fund after that date.
  • Catching falling knives
    Hi Junkster,
    Nice to see you posting again. About catching falling knifes ... I don't look at my current special strategy in that light. But, one that uses market money to make new purchases at discount prices. Below is my thinking, my strategy, what I am doing and my anticipated outcome.
    I am hoping the 2100 comes to be for a year end close for the S&P 500 Index as forecasted by Birinyi. This would equate to just short of a 12% gain from current levels of 1878. Which is indeed possible should forward earnings estimates materialize as anticipated.
    Anyway, I now have my marker on the bet line that it will as I bought again today. With this I have recently bought at the 1970's, the 1920's and the 1870's. My next buy step is the 1820's and then beyond that at the 1770's should we reach these levels on the Index.
    Keep in mind that year end mutual fund capital gain distributions are expected to be on the heavy side this year. Since, I take all my distributions in cash I have decided to put these anticipated distributions to work early and use the forth coming distributions to restore the cash position within my portfolio used to make these purchases.
    With my average cost on amount invested currently at about 1920 and should the Index reach the forecasted 2100 year end closing mark then this will equal about a 8.5% gain. Should I buy again at the 1820's then this will lower my cost on amount invested to about 1895 and increase the gain to 10.8% should the 2100 mark be reached. With another buy at the 1770's and if the 2100 year end closing mark be reached then this would equate to about a 12.3% gain.
    For me it is risk on for the traditional fall stock market rally. After all, the way I look at this is that I am using market money derived from investment distributions to make more market investments which from my thinking is kind of clever by using market products that generated the cash that will, in the end, fund these special purchases.
    Should my strategy not play out by year end; I believe it will over time and besides the funds I invested in have a history of paying out good distributions.
    Since this is being played in a tax deferred account there are no taxes to pay until withdrawals are made and I am investing in funds that are nav purchases for me.
    Old_Skeet
  • Birinyi Not Even Sure What's Going On With Stocks
    I am hoping the 2100 comes to be for a year end close for the S&P 500 Index as forecast by Birinyi. This would equate to just short of a 12% gain from current levels of 1878. Which is indeed possible should forward earnings estimates materialize as anticipated.
    Anyway, I now have my marker on the bet line that it will as I bought again today. With this I have recently bought at the 1970's, the 1920's and the 1870's. My next buy step is the 1820's and then beyond that at 1770.
    Keep in mind that year end capital gain distributions are expected to be on the heavy side this year. Since, I take all my distributions in cash I have decided to put these anticipated distributions to work early and use the forth coming distributions to restore the cash position within my portfolio used to make these purchases.
    With my average cost on amount invested currently at about 1920 and should the Index reach the forecasted 2100 year end closing mark then this will equal about a 8.5% gain. Should I buy again at the 1820's then this will lower my cost on amount invested to about 1895 and increase the gain to 10.8% should the 2100 mark be reached. With another buy at the 1770's and if the 2100 year end closing mark be reached then this would equate to about a 12.3% gain.
    For me it is risk on for the traditional fall stock market rally.
    Old_Skeet
  • Mutual Fund Distributions Appear Headed Up This Year
    From the article: "Also, your cost basis can rise because the distribution counts in your basis, even if it's paid out and not reinvested. That higher basis can reduce your future cap gains tax on a profitable sale of shares."
    Wrong. Only money that is used to buy shares contributes to the cost of those shares.
  • Mutual Fund Distributions Appear Headed Up This Year
    What's the reason for significantly increased distributions from stock mutual funds over last year?
    In 2013, the market was up 32.4%, so naturally actively managed stock mutual funds had tons of realized capital gains from selling appreciated winning positions. Regarding stock dividend distributions, the 30 day SEC yield of VFIAX is 1.99%.
  • when to sell a MF ?
    "It seems I delay in taking the profit & or gain. Does anyone care to chime in as to what they would do ?" Derf
    On all my profitable holdings(losers are a different question) I set a STOP PROFIT figure:
    For example: if I want/need 8% yr from my investments, and I am up 30-40% after 3yrs, I set a figure of 25% profit as a SELL figure, then if the investment goes down I have a good sale, If the investment goes up later, I don't care, I got my 8% a yr., that's what I wanted it the first place...easy peasy
    GREAT for current market as we all have Good/great gains for the last few years, WHY give them back? Take your 8% yr (or whatever) and run with what you have or wanted to make...tb
  • Which Way will the Markets Go?
    Hi John,
    Thanks for posting this Seeking Alpha article. It is well written and the comments on the strategies discussed I found to be of good reading. My thoughts are that there is a good possibility of a 250 point drop in valuation for the S&P 500 Index from its recent high of 2020 but there is no certainity to this happening. This would put it in a downdraft spin by my defination. My thoughts are that I'll buy at every 50 point drop from the 2020 mark with a sum equal to about one percent of the cash held within my portfolio. Should the Index reach my targeted 1770 range then this will leave me with about 10% cash plus whatever my mutual funds hold and leave me at about a 15% cash level in the near term. Under my plan, I will have bought at 1970, 1920, 1870, 1820, and 1770 ranges which when averaged will average to a buy-in at the 1895 range. With the large year end cash distributions that I expect from my mutual funds to make then my cash levels could be restored pretty close to their current 20% level with no action on my part even after considering my most recent buys.
    I like to average-in, in a market decline and average-out in a market bull run. Should the market decline to the 1770's as it might then once it has bottomed and turned then I'll start averaging-out, by about one percent of equity valuation, at every 25 point climb from the 1900 level until a full cash position has been obtained. This is what I did once the Index reached the 1600 level a while back.
    I am by no means saying the market will perform to my thinking and others should goven by their own thinking and not mine. I am writting this only for information puropses as to how I manage my portfolio with respect to both bullish and bearish stock market movement.
    Hopefully, 3rd quarter corporate earnings will be good and a fall stock market rally will be coming in the near term. As the article states the upcoming week will provide some insight as to how the 4th quarter might be looking.
    I wish all ... "Good Investing."
    Old_Skeet
  • Josh Brown: Why Did The Stock Market Plummet Yesterday ?
    And the next phase is...?
    As always, Josh brings a fresh perspective.
    I'm not as down on the future as he seems to imply.
    Would be good to get back to a more normal monetary policy, consistent earnings growth, more realistic IPOs, and attendant modesty in market expectations.
    Higher wages, continued reduction in unemployment, increased capital expenditure.
    All the while, interest rates remain low. Credit available.
    That would not be so bad, would it?