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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • For Some Stock Pickers, Worst Showing In 10 Years
    My not very profound comment is that at least in the case of a taxable large cap account the case for index funds is pretty compelling. Who wants to pay taxes on capital gain distributions especially involving short term trades
  • A bit of what I call a broad vacuum (sucks) market day, eh??? 1 fund & 1 stock up for this house....
    The new economy revisited?(Broad spectrum not broad vacuum?) Info highway/clean efficient transportation vs capital intensive mining and oil e&p.
    Assorted news stories from early week. PVSAX Putnam Capital Spectrum Fund Class A +0.58(+1.48%) and PYSAX Putnam Equity Spectrum Fund Class A +0.58(+1.32%) both have a large stake in DISH that gave them a nice gain today.They both trail SPY Y T D but both have strong 5 year returns.
    Another wild-card bidder is Dish Network. There has been speculation that Dish Chairman Charlie Ergen wants to drive bidding prices up to help increase the value of the nearby airwaves licenses that Dish owns
    Nov 19, 6:40PM EST
    DISH 74.66 +6.81 (+10.04%)
    Statoil (NYSE:STO) says it will suspend operations of two offshore drilling rigs for at least the rest of the year, with no plans for redeployment, citing overcapacity.
    Transocean slides as fleet update shows more rigs idled
    http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/RIG
    Closing the mine is not CLF's first choice, but an attempt to find partners to share the cost of expansion appears to have failed, and selling a mine that needs $1.2B in capital is a doubtful prospect; even Teck Resources (NYSE:TCK), long interested in breaking into the iron ore business, isn't biting.If a sale process fails, a closure of Bloom Lake would close the books one of the worst acquisitions in the history of Canadian mining.
    http://seekingalpha.com/news/2138385-cliffs-massive-closure-costs-for-bloom-lake-stuns-investors
    Bidding in the FCC's AWS-3 spectrum auction have reached $24.1B barely 24 hours after topping $14B. Through 15 rounds, $1.19B alone was bid on a 10x10 MHz. license for the NYC area.
    http://seekingalpha.com/news/2138395-spectrum-bids-top-24b-at-and-t-verizon-seen-spending-heavily
    Linked from S A article
    http://recode.net/2014/11/19/wireless-auction-attracts-whopping-24-billion-in-bids-so-far/
    "We know there is a good potential in India for Tesla," Mr Vijayan said, adding "based on demand there could be a manufacturing plant in Asia and India could be one of the possible locations".
    He said Tesla has been working to produce affordable electric car to cater to the mass segment.
    "With our 3rd generation car Tesla Model 3, we are looking to make it more affordable at a price of around USD 30,000-35,000, which is about half of our current Model S," Vijayan said.
    The company has a manufacturing plant at Freemont in US that can roll out half a million units annually (If Tesla can achieve that $30-35 thou price point they'll probably be able to put a plant anywhere they want!)
    http://profit.ndtv.com/news/industries/article-tesla-keen-to-enter-india-but-says-high-import-duty-a-roadblock-700069
    Norwegian Air CEO rejects criticism of plan for U.S. budget airline
    BY ALWYN SCOTT AND JEFFREY DASTIN
    NEW YORK/SEATTLE Wed Nov 19, 2014 8:09pm EST
    Norwegian is one of the first airlines trying to bring low-cost flying to long-haul flights. It has a fleet of 17 Boeing 787 Dreamliners and plans to order at least five to 10 more.
    Kjos said the Irish subsidiary is necessary to obtain access for all of Norwegian's aircraft to fly between the United States, Europe and Asia. If the company is only incorporated in Norway, it does not have access to many countries in Asia, since Norway is not part of the European Union. That would leave Norwegian running two airlines that separately serve the United States and Asia, and not able to shift aircraft from one region to the other.
    They (opponents)say Norwegian will dodge U.S. labor laws by using its Irish subsidiary to take advantage of labor laws that are weaker than in Norway, threatening U.S. jobs.
    "It would be a logistical nightmare," Kjos said. "We can't have one airline flying east, one airline flying west." http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/11/20/us-usa-airlines-norwegian-air-idUSKCN0J402I20141120
    By COSTAS PARIS Copyright W S J
    Updated Nov. 17, 2014 8:49 a.m. ET
    (paste and copy)
    LONDON—Shipping freight rates from Asia to Europe, the world’s busiest trade route, on Monday logged their biggest-ever weekly drop, as European growth is stagnating and Japan just fell back into recession.
    Container-shipping volumes are considered an important barometer of the global economy. Container ships move items as diverse as household goods, apparel, toys, electronics and food. Analysts said they expected further shipping-rate weakness because the peak demand season for Asian exports ahead of the end-of-year holidays is already over.
    Prices between Asian and European ports fell 21% per 20-foot container to $934, compared with $1,175 at the beginning of last week, according to the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index.The benchmark Asia-to-Europe rate stood at $1,765 per container at the start of the year.
    “Shipping lines have at this point lost control over freight rates,” said Jonathan Roach, container-shipping analyst at London-based Braemar ACM Shipbroking. “They are desperately trying to fill their ships while being hit by a double whammy: a renewed global economic slowdown and a persistent overcapacity of ships.”
    (subscription) http://online.wsj.com/articles/asia-europe-shipping-freight-rates-suffer-record-weekly-fall-1416226192
    TV Studios Court Licensing Deals in Bustling Foreign Markets
    By AMOL SHARMA
    Nov. 19, 2014 10:33 p.m. ET Copyright W S J (paste and copy)
    For Warner Bros. and other U.S. studios, the international TV-licensing bazaar has never been more lucrative
    Licensing content to foreign TV channels is one of several ways U.S. media companies are tapping into growing overseas markets as they contend with a maturing pay-TV market at home. The U.S. growth in pay-TV subscriptions over the past 30 years has fueled the profits of TV channels and, in turn, created higher demand for the content studios like Warner produce.
    Now, U.S. cable and satellite connections have peaked at around 100 million households, representing 86.5% penetration. That compares with an average penetration of just 48% across non-U.S. markets in 2013, according to securities firm Jefferies, leaving plenty of room for growth in European, Asian and Latin American markets.
    As new international channels launch, they have voracious demand for content. The price paid by international networks for TV programming is growing at a double-digit pace, says Morgan Stanley analyst Benjamin Swinburne. “American studios have a huge advantage,” he said. “They can afford the kind of production budgets that most national players in their own market can’t.” (Content sales also go the other direction, of course, and U.S. TV networks have long licensed reality shows from foreign producers and are ramping up on scripted content, too.)
    (subscription)http://online.wsj.com/articles/tv-studios-court-licensing-deals-in-bustling-foreign-markets-1416454383?mod=WSJ_hp_RightTopStories
  • Sell Before/After Distribution?
    Jerry is addressing the question of whether to liquidate completely (and implicitly, this year or across multiple years). That's because of extra taxes/higher rates that could kick in.
    Edit: Upon rereading, I see Jerry largely addressed the item I also discussed below:
    Let me address a slightly different question - assuming you are going to liquidate this year, do you do that before or after dividends? Simple rule of thumb: liquidate all your long term shares before distributions. Short term shares are (usually) better liquidated after distribution.
    For example, suppose you have a LT share purchased at $100. It's now priced at $110. Suppose also that the distribution is going to be $3 LTG, $2 ord income. The price will drop to $105.
    Sell before distribution and you have $10 LTG. Sell after, and you realize a $5 LTG. But you've also got a $3 LTG distribution, and $2 in ord income. That $10 realized LTG is better than the $8 LTG ($5 + $3) and $2 ordinary income.
    The reasoning on the short term shares is the same, just backward. You're usually worse off realizing STG than getting the some of those gains as LTG distributions and some as ord income.
  • Sell Before/After Distribution?
    It really depends in part on your tax bracket and how close you are to critical levels such as $250k for married $200k for single. Check this link for more info on that issue http://www.irs.gov/uac/Newsroom/Net-Investment-Income-Tax-FAQs
    Another factor to check out is the probability you will owe money to the Alternative Minimum Tax because of large capital gains. (small gains probably won't affect this)
    \Obviously if you sell your entire position in one or more of these funds you will have a higher income and amount of "investment income " than you would if you just took distributions (presumably since you don't like the performance you will not be reinvesting the dividends.. If you are close to critical levels such as the ACA surcharge levels or the much lower levels where tax brackets for capital gains change you should do the careful calculation to determine your best action..All things being equal and given that we are near the end of the year it is likely that a good option (not necessarily the best)would be to sell one fund before distribution but only the shares on which you have a long term gain(because the distribution will include dividends taxed at a higher rate). Once you get into the new year you can reconsider the situation. One minor value in putting things off is that the market is likely (because it usually does) go up in the months at the end of a year.
  • Sell Before/After Distribution?
    I own FSIVX, PRDGX, and VDIGX, which I want to sell because of their poor performance compared to their peers. They will all result in LT capital gains however, and I used up my LT capital loss carryover last year. Are there any advantages to selling before the ex-dividend date, or should I just collect the distribution and sell in the future?
  • M* Potential Allocation Manager Of The Year Winners
    Interesting that M* admits that the Manager of the Year award actually is not based on the current year. Why not call it fund of the decade that happens to have the same management for 7 years and has at least $10 billion is assets? If the award is for management, and if the name is Manager of the Year, what's with all the extraneous screens? And the required analyst rating insures only 20-30% of funds get admitted to the exclusive group. No funds under $3 billion need apply.
    Many of these are not what I would call allocation funds, where management has the ability to determine the mix of stocks and bonds. Wellington and Wellesley for sure have mandates they cannot change. Both American funds have held the same allocation for years and years. They, too, are restricted by prospectus. Price Capital Appreciation has great management, but it, too, has had an almost unchanged allocation for a long time. Puritan has had the same mix, within a percentage point or two, for ages. Franklin Income has actually changed allocation a bit over the last five years, up to almost 10% less in bonds. Thornburg is by far the most adventurous, but still not much.
    Given M*s rather glib interpretation of "allocation" (it seems to encompass balanced, all three allocation categories (conservative, moderate, aggressive), tactical, and world allocation) there are sure to be some great managers who are overlooked. FPACX, OAKBX, GLRBX, CAPSX to name a very few. I am surprised to see Thornburg on this list, but not disappointed.
  • Q&A With Bob Rodriguez: New Great Recession Coming In 3 Years
    @Junkster: You don't understand, he's a legend in his own mind. FPPTX Is Ranked #60 In The (MCV) Fund Category By U.S. News & World Report.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://money.usnews.com/funds/mutual-funds/mid-cap-value/fpa-capital-fund/fpptx
    And what a difference a month and a half makes. His three year annualized return is now 10.64% vs. the 15%+ shown by U.S. News through 9/30. That compares to 21.42% in the S&P and 20.48% in FPPTX's benchmark.
  • Q&A With Bob Rodriguez: New Great Recession Coming In 3 Years
    @Junkster: You don't understand, he's a legend in his own mind. FPPTX Is Ranked #60 In The (MCV) Fund Category By U.S. News & World Report.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://money.usnews.com/funds/mutual-funds/mid-cap-value/fpa-capital-fund/fpptx
  • The Fund That Reshaped The Gold Market
    If you want to own gold (I don't) then GTU is more tax-wise than GLD b/c GTU is treated as a stock for capital gains purposes (or was the last time I looked), which is not true of GLD.
  • Q&A With Bob Rodriguez: New Great Recession Coming In 3 Years
    FYI: Legendary fund manager Robert Rodriguez, who forecast the global financial crisis, sees money managers and advisors in peril. They will be victims of their own heedlessness, he says.
    The day of reckoning will come within three years in a financial crisis at least as big and pernicious as The Great Recession, he told ThinkAdvisor in a recent, exclusive interview. The country is treading a tenuous path toward another disaster of massive proportions, according to Rodriguez.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.thinkadvisor.com/2014/10/27/bob-rodriguez-new-great-recession-coming-in-3-year?page_all=1
    M* Snapshot Of FPA Capital Funds: http://quicktake.morningstar.com/fundfamily/fpa/0C00001YR9/fund-list.aspx
  • Is Bruce B. out of the mortgage business?
    Bloomberg corrects its statement that Berkowitz sold his common shares...
    (Corrects headline and first sentence of story published Nov. 14 to remove reference to Fairholme selling Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac common securities.)
    Bruce Berkowitz’s Fairholme Capital Management LLC limited disclosures about the firm’s common and preferred stakes in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
    The investment firm opted to stop disclosing its holdings in the companies because U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission rules don’t require them to be listed, the firm said in today’s Form 13F filing.
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-11-14/fairholme-exits-fannie-freddie-common-limits-disclosures.html
  • Jonathan Clements: We Need Stock Prices To Fall 25%
    Cheated by Diversification?
    Mr. Clements has found the enemy – and it is he.
    “The long rally has done wonders for my portfolio’s value.
    But it also means stocks are now more richly valued—
    and expected returns are lower. Unless you never again
    plan to add to your stock portfolio, you should have
    mixed feelings about the market’s heady gains.”
    All along Mr. Clements has been telling us common folks
    in his suavity-dripping manner how we should invest.
    Now he’s somewhat unhappy with his returns and uneasy
    about future returns.
    Gosh, authorial intent seems to be a tricky business.
    I’m guessing that he’s not upset by a lack of diversification,
    but rather too much diversification – wishing he had held
    more equities during this Bull Run.
    So, now he wants a 25% pullback – essentially, another chance.
    Hey, why not call for a 50% drop?
    Sorry Mr. Clements, it was your own hand that failed to meet
    your expectations (read: greed).
  • why invest in an alternative fund:?
    Howdy @JohnChisum
    You noted: "For alternatives, I look at long-short funds and fixed income of multi asset variety. With rates on bonds so low investors want to get something during a downturn."
    >>>I suggest that during a downturn, bond rates may move lower; thus the capital appreciation of the bond pricing. I would "want" to have this during a downturn. We don't treat bonds any different from another asset class; we want the capital appreciation from pricing, not unlike equity investments. The yields/dividends are bonus money, even if; of little consequence to overall performance.
    Take care,
    Catch
  • why invest in an alternative fund:?
    I haven't figured out the need for Market Neutral funds either. If they perform as they are supposed to, you could protect your capital during bear markets. The short downturns we have experienced recently haven't proven this out yet. Of course, when the market is going up they don't do much at all.
    For alternatives, I look at long-short funds and fixed income of multi asset variety. With rates on bonds so low investors want to get something during a downturn.
  • 2014 estimated (preliminary) year end distributions
    TheShadow and TheGainTrain (and others) - you are really good at getting this information! And... you are including some fund families I am not including on CapGainsValet.com (mostly due to the firm size limits I set originally). I will give a shout out to this group and MFO in my CGV News. Excellent research work! I am up to 135 firms that have posted their 2014 cap gains estimates.
  • Are Health Care Funds Taking PEDs?
    Not directly related to U.S. healthcare, I am sure many here are aware of the foreign health centers that have come into place in the past 10-12 years, in particular with India and Thailand.
    This is a new entry that I have watched for the past two years; although there isn't any investment potential directly related the hospital, as it is private.
    Acension Health/Caymans
    Ascension is a full blown, very sophisticated total health care organization involved in all areas of the business from venture capital startups to insurance and is a non-profit, Catholic based group.
    Regards,
    Catch