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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • How much do you have in your savings account?
    Hi @Dex,
    In the cash area of my portfolio, which includes money held in currency and on deposit at two banks, I currently have enough cash to live off of for more than three years at my current spending rate should all other forms of income I receive (social security, a small pension and from investments) come to a halt. If I sold out of the markets today, I anticipate I'd have better than twenty years of worth of cash on hand at my current spending rate. Seems, I recall Ted chose to go to mostly to an all cash position this past summer. For me, being age 67 and my wife age 65 I think I am going to stay invested in the capital markets for many years to come. Should my portfolio return what I have projected over the next ten years, as detailed in another blurb and noted below, the returns will most likely be enough to support my lifestyle without a cash drawdown.
    For easy reference, below is my post regarding my anticipated portfolio's return. It reads as follows ...
    "Hi @MJG,
    Thanks for posting your forecast of six percent average annual gain for stocks over the next ten years. Wonder what bonds are going to do? And, then there is cash?
    Here is my thinking ... Like you say, I'll use six per cent for stocks, (my call) four percent for bonds and two percent for cash. With this and based upon my current asset allocation of 25% cash, 20% bonds and 55% stocks (which includes the 5% other assets as defined by M* within my portfolio) I can expect between a four to five percent annualized return over the next ten years on my portfolio. Sounds reasonable to me.
    So, if I want to make more I will need to continue to employ some spiffs (special investment positions) from time-to-time as I have been doing in this low interest rate environment. Doing this, might add a percent or two. Or, I could take on more risk and raise my allocation to stocks and bonds while lowering my allocation to cash. Think I'll continue to play the spiffs and tweak my asset allocation form time-to-time as to how I am reading the markets. In doing a look back, Morningstar's Portfolio Manager indicates that my current fund possitions have a combinded returned for the past five years of about 8.5% and for the ten year period about 6.5%. With this, some adjustment (downward) would needed to be made to account for my cash position in use with the above percentages. So, let's knock a percent off of these percentages to derive at what the portfolio would have returned adjusting it for current cash held. Probally, not exact but close.
    Currently, I think from a TTM P/E Ratio (21.5) stocks are more than fully valued along with most bonds. With this, I am going to stick with being cash heavy for the time being and employ the spiffs.
    Thanks again for posting your insight. It is appreciated."
    Best regards,
    Old_Skeet
  • 2015 Capital gains distribution estimates
    I want to jump in before this thread gets too large. http://www.capgainsvalet.com/ is out of hibernation! It's early in the season, but I expect to have 185+ fund families available for searching as well as some thoughts on various capital gains distributions strategies that may leave more dollars in your pockets.
    I value the input of MFO readers. Please let me know if you have any recommendations to make the site better.
  • What do folks here make of the First Eagle acquisition ?
    @rjb112 Yes sir, that'll do it for controlling interest; whether 80, 65, or 50.1%. Thanks.
    @Shostakovich I dunno. We've certainly seen this before and, soon or later, it seems to not work out so well for MF shareholders, about ...what...half the time? "Blackstone and Corsair Capital’s investment also ensures that First Eagle will continue to operate independently. It will maintain its investment-centric culture." "John Arnhold, Chairman and CIO of First Eagle, said the founding family is pleased with the investment because it provides long-term stability to the firm and its clients." The usual questions arise: how so? and, was that somewhat in doubt before and nothing was said?
    @scott So, does that make you, in a sense, Shostakovich's overlord? :)
  • What do folks here make of the First Eagle acquisition ?
    Did they buy the whole enchilada? I thought they only bought a 20% stake in First Eagle. That would be similar to Oaktree's ~20% stake in DoubleLine (which has been quite lucrative for them).
    http://www.valuewalk.com/2015/07/blackstone-corsair-capital-acquire-majority-stake-in-first-eagle/
    Blackstone, Corsair Capital Acquire Majority Stake in First Eagle
    Posted By: Marie Cabural Posted date: July 21, 2015
  • AllianzGI Global Managed Volatility Fund to liquidate
    http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1423227/000119312515341145/d45141d497.htm
    497 1 d45141d497.htm ALLIANZ FUNDS MULTI-STRATEGY TRUST
    Filed pursuant to Rule 497(e)
    File Nos. 333-148624 and 811-22167
    ALLIANZ FUNDS MULTI-STRATEGY TRUST
    Supplement Dated October 9, 2015 to the
    Statutory Prospectus for Class A, Class B, Class C, Class R, Class R6,
    Institutional Class, Class P, Administrative Class and Class D Shares of
    Allianz Funds Multi-Strategy Trust,
    Dated April 1, 2015 (as supplemented thereafter)
    Disclosure Relating to AllianzGI Global Managed Volatility Fund (for purposes of this section only, the “Fund”)
    Liquidation of the Fund
    Effective on or about December 11, 2015 (the “Liquidation Date”), the Fund will be liquidated and dissolved. Any shares of the Fund outstanding on the Liquidation Date will be automatically redeemed on the Liquidation Date. The proceeds of any such redemption will be equal to the net asset value of such shares after dividend distributions required to eliminate any Fund-level taxes are made and the expenses and liabilities of the Fund have been paid or otherwise provided for. Allianz Global Investors Distributors LLC, the Fund’s distributor (the “Distributor”), will waive contingent deferred sales charges applicable to redemptions beginning five (5) business days prior to the Liquidation Date, including such Liquidation Date.
    At any time prior to the Liquidation Date, shareholders may redeem their shares of the Fund and receive the net asset value thereof, pursuant to the procedures set forth under “How to Buy and Sell Shares” in the Prospectus. Shareholders may also exchange their shares of the Fund for shares of the same class of any other series of Allianz Funds Multi-Strategy Trust (the “Trust”) or Allianz Funds that offers that class, as described under “How to Buy and Sell Shares—Exchanging Shares” in the Prospectus. Such exchanges will be taxable transactions for shareholders who hold shares in taxable accounts.
    Redemptions on the Liquidation Date will generally be treated like any other redemption of shares and may result in a gain or loss for U.S. federal income tax purposes. Any gain or loss will be a capital gain or loss for shareholders who hold their shares as capital assets. Capital gains or losses will be short- or long-term depending on how long a shareholder has held his or her Fund shares. Shareholders should consult their own tax advisors regarding their particular situation and the possible application of state, local or non-U.S. tax laws.
    Restrictions on New Purchases and Exchanges for Shares of the Fund
    The Board of Trustees (“Board”) of the Trust has imposed the following restrictions on new purchases of, and exchanges for, shares of the Fund:
    Effective as of the close of business on December 4, 2015, shares of the Fund will no longer be available for purchase by current or new investors in the Fund, other than through the automatic reinvestment of distributions by current shareholders, and shareholders of other series of the Trust and shareholders of series of Allianz Funds will no longer be permitted to exchange any of their shares for shares of the Fund, as described in the Prospectus under “How to Buy and Sell Shares—Exchanging Shares.”
    The Board and the Distributor each reserves the right at any time to modify or eliminate the terms described above, including on a case-by-case basis.
    Disclosure Relating to AllianzGI Global Allocation Fund (for purposes of this section only, the “Fund”)
    On October 8, 2015, the Board of the Trust approved the elimination of all Class B shares of the Fund, to be accomplished through the accelerated conversion of Class B shares into Class A shares of the Fund (the “Class B Conversion”). Class B shares have not been available for purchase since November 1, 2009, other than through the reinvestment of distributions by current Class B shareholders.
    The Class B Conversion will be effected on the basis of the relative net asset values of the Class B and Class A shares involved and, following the conversion, the Fund will cease to have any Class B shares authorized or outstanding. The Class B Conversion will take place pursuant to the Tenth Amended and Restated Multi-Class Plan of the Trust, which was approved by the Board at its October 8, 2015 meeting, and is expected to be completed in the fourth quarter of 2015. After the Class B Conversion, the Fund will cease to offer Class B shares.
    Please retain this Supplement for future reference.
  • 2015 Capital gains distribution estimates
    Yeah, lots of the active equity mutual funds at Vanguard show cap gains hits (eg., VGENX). But the related index mutual funds (eg., VENAX) do not. Nor do the ETFs with same share class (eg., VDE). Presumably this benefit is because of the concept of in-kind exchange.
    But as these indices become more sophisticated and tailored, they are essentially becoming a formulated "active" trade...but without the cap gain penalty.
    If this advantage is bankable, got to believe it increases favor of ETFs. 'Cause, nobody likes paying cap gains, especially on down years.
  • 2015 Capital gains distribution estimates
    Hi Mona. Right, I used the 2014 distributions to show that equity ETFs don't seem to pay cap gains. In case of Vanguard, some of their ETFs are actually share classes of the mutual funds, so portfolio is essentially same (eg., VHT and VCVLX). Now, perhaps it's just because these mutual funds and ETFs are index funds. But, I believe the active EtF folks are touting they enjoy capital gain advantages that traditional mutual funds do not.
  • 2015 Capital gains distribution estimates
    Only bond ETFs, which are hard to get around. No cap gains on any of the equity ETFs, looks like, even though some are literally another share class of their mutual funds. Correct?
    Charles,
    To my understanding, Vanguard has not announced any of their 2015 year-end capital gains distributions yet.
    Mona
  • 2015 Capital gains distribution estimates
    Only bond ETFs, which are hard to get around. No cap gains on any of the equity ETFs, looks like, even though some are literally another share class of their mutual funds. Correct?
  • 2015 Capital gains distribution estimates
    No Capital Gains on the ETFs!
    It looks like they've just rolled this page forward for 2015... the link you have shows Q3 2015 distributions. Actually, Vanguard paid out on a number of their ETFs last year (see the bottom of the page for the estimates here: https://personal.vanguard.com/us/insights/article/update-prelimcapgains-112014).
    They've even already paid out on one of their ETFs (BND) in 2015! See the April distribution for the Total Bond Market fund.
    https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/snapshot?FundId=0928&FundIntExt=INT#tab=4
  • What do folks here make of the First Eagle acquisition ?
    More Blackstone ( BX )
    By LISA BEILFUSS WSJ
    Updated Oct. 8, 2015 8:36 a.m. ET
    0 COMMENTS
    Blackstone Group L.P. will acquire BioMed Realty Trust in an $4.84 billion cash deal, adding more office buildings and laboratory-capable facilities to its real estate portfolio.
    The $23.75 per share price tag represents a 10% premium over Wednesday’s closing price. Blackstone valued the deal at $8 billion, which may include debt. A representative wasn’t immediately available for comment.
    Shares in Biomed Realty gained 8.6% in premarket trading. Blackstone shares were inactive.
    Blackstone, the world’s largest private-equity firm, has been raising cash to make deals in the space, last quarter closing a $15.8 billion distressed and opportunistic real-estate funds
    http://www.wsj.com/articles/blackstone-to-buy-biomed-realty-trust-for-4-84-billion-1444300840
    More on @Scott mentioned stocks here:(Blackstone,Starwood Capital, Brookfield Asset
    Management )(This ain't "Mainstreet "finance! )
    3Q15
    CAPITAL MARKETS REPORT
    FOR THE INTELLIGENT INVESTOR
    Overview

    International capital
    has accounted
    for nearly
    16.0%
    of all United States sales activity, year to date, up from 10.0% from 2011-2014.

    Capital investment from China to the United States has exceeded $5 billion in 2015, yet United States investment to China has been cut to $1.5 billion, year to date.

    Of the ten foreign countries that have invested the most capital in the United States in the past 12 months, all have
    purchased assets in Manhattan.
    Canada and Singapore have invested in each of the 11 largest United States markets over the past 12 months.

    Per square foot averages of institutional quality office buildings in major markets have exceeded the prior peak in 2008.

    New York City sale prices are currently 14.6%
    above the 2Q08 previous high, averaging $973 per square foot.

    Asking rents in Manhattan remain 6.9% below the market peak in 2008, and 14.3% below the Midtown 2008 peak.

    Investors
    are seeking higher yields in secondary markets and nontraditional property types as gateway cities have become over saturated.

    Current commercial and multihousing yields remain significantly higher than the 10
    year treasury.

    C M B S debt has experienced the most growth in 2015, expanding from 12.6% to 19.9% of all outstanding debt.
    Concurrently, banks have cut their outstanding debt by 25.8% since 2014
    http://www.ngkf.com/Uploads/FileManager/3Q15-Capital-Markets-Report.pdf
  • Luz Padilla /Doubleline E M Bonds Webcast Tue10/06
    Hmmmmm. Higher yield has made less money in PREMX vs. DLENX. Curious.
    Yeah, more capital loss in PREMX. That's what those risk ratings reflect.
    I've owned both at different times, don't have either now; only EM bonds now are in the etf PCY, but that's more of a tactical buy/sell deal.
  • 401K advice
    Hi proman:
    Not familiar with AC's current lineup - though I did once invest with them and found them OK. Keep in mind that funds like the one you own (Aggressive is the tip-off here) are typically very volatile. Losses of 15-25% in a year followed by similarily large gains are not uncommon. Comes with the territory.
    My sense is you'd be more at ease in some type of moderate allocation fund or a target date fund based on anticipated retirement year. And shucks ... There's nothing on your list along that line that I recognize or could recommend.
    The one (more aggressive) choice that leaps to mind is T.Rowe Price's Growth Stock Fund (PRGFX). They're a great client-friendly house. And Lipper gives the fund its highest ratings. Another I've owned and liked is Oppenheimer's Global Growth (OPPAX). It also scores well at Lipper. R-Class would allow you to own Class A equivalent at Oppenheimer without paying the customary (near 5%) load. But be wary of many of Oppenheimer's other funds. You can lose a lot of money fast in some of them. And their allocation funds actually tack-on an extra "allocation fee", making them overly costly to own.
    Please keep in mind that the two I mentioned specifically (at Price and Oppenheimer) are aggressive funds designed for long-term investors able to tolerate large swings in NAV.
  • 401K advice
    Hi All,
    I am new to the investing world and am hoping for some advice on funds to invest in for my 401K portfolio. I am currently invested in one fund ( American Century Strategic Allocation: Aggressive ). This fund doesn't seem to perform as well as our advisor assumed. I would appreciate any advice anyone may have oh what I can do with these funds:
    Percent
    Invesco Stable Asset Fund
    Putnam American Government Income Fund - Class R
    PIMCO Total Return Fund - Class R
    Oppenheimer Global Strategic Income Fund - Class R
    Ivy High Income Fund - Class R
    PIMCO Real Return Fund - Class R
    AB Global Bond Fund - Class R
    American Century One Choice In Retirement Portfolio - Class R
    American Century One Choice 2020 Portfolio - Class R
    American Century One Choice 2025 Portfolio - Class R
    American Century One Choice 2030 Portfolio - Class R
    American Century One Choice 2035 Portfolio - Class R
    American Century One Choice 2040 Portfolio - Class R
    American Century One Choice 2045 Portfolio - Class R
    American Century One Choice 2050 Portfolio - Class R
    American Century One Choice 2055 Portfolio - Class R
    American Century Strategic Allocation: Conservative Fund - Class R
    American Century Strategic Allocation: Moderate Fund - Class R
    BlackRock Global Allocation Fund, Inc. - Class R
    AB Equity Income Fund - Class R
    BlackRock Equity Dividend Fund - Class R
    Franklin Rising Dividends Fund - Class R
    SSgA S&P 500 Index Securities Lending Series Fund - Class IX
    BlackRock Capital Appreciation Fund, Inc. - Class R
    Neuberger Berman Socially Responsive Fund - Class R3
    T. Rowe Price Growth Stock Fund - Class R
    BlackRock Mid Cap Value Opportunities Fund - Class R
    Oppenheimer Main Street Mid Cap Fund - Class R
    SSgA S&P MidCap Index Non-Lending Series Fund - Class J
    Eagle Mid Cap Growth Fund - Class R3
    Nuveen Mid Cap Growth Opportunities Fund - Class R3
    Delaware Small Cap Value Fund - Class R
    JPMorgan US Small Company Fund - Class R2
    SSgA Russell Small Cap Index Securities Lending Series Fund - Class VIII
    Lord Abbett Alpha Strategy Fund - Class R3
    Nuveen Small Cap Select Fund - Class R3
    MFS International Value Fund - Class R2
    MFS Research International Fund - Class R2
    Neuberger Berman International Select Fund - Class R3
    SSgA International Index Securities Lending Series Fund - Class VIII
    Oppenheimer International Diversified Fund - Class R
    MFS International New Discovery Fund - Class R2
    Oppenheimer Global Fund - Class R
    RS Emerging Markets Fund - Class K
    The Hartford Healthcare Fund - Class R3
    Oppenheimer Gold & Special Minerals Fund - Class R
    Deutsche Real Estate Securities Fund - Class R
    Columbia Seligman Communications and Information Fund - Class R
    I am 30 and just starting to invest so I need to catch up and willing to go aggressive for now. Any help or advice would be very much appreciated. I was planning on reallocating at least 90% of my current funds.
    Thank you in advance
  • ETFs and the free lunch illusion
    Thank you for clearly enumerating some of the issues with ETFs. (Though the hidden cost of NTF platforms is orthogonal - that's a problem with the platform regardless of the vehicle, ETF or OEF - and one that doesn't plague most ETFs.)
    A couple of smaller downsides of ETFs:
    4. Non-commission trading costs - the bid/ask spread and the (petty) SEC Section 31 fee (currently 0.184 basis points, usually passed through to investors by brokerages).
    5. Tracking error - this is the "mini" version of your #2 - structural pricing issues. Even when the market isn't in free fall, there is a divergence between NAV and trading price, due in part to liquidity costs (and I guess also due to the fees that authorized participants pay to the sponsor to buy and sell creation units). This is different from the tracking error of the fund with respect to its benchmark index, which is inherent in all index funds.
    On the plus side, ETFs may be more tax-efficient than their OEF counterparts. Only "maybe" for a couple of reasons. One is that well run cap weighted index funds rarely distribute capital gains, regardless of the funds' structure. The other is that Vanguard OEFs share the same advantage as their sibling ETFs, because they are merely different share classes of the same portfolios, not clones.
    I completely agree with you regarding S&P indexes (not so for Russell, Wilshire, FTSE). This has been obvious since 2000, when S&P methodically swapped out "old economy" stocks for "new economy" stocks, just in time to see its index (supposedly a measure of market performance) underperform the market by several percent.
    http://www.thestreet.com/story/10029393/1/the-sp-500-is-a-mutual-fund--and-a-bad-one-at-that.html
    Finally, a note on the CNBC link - Usually, when an article is written saying how wonderfully cheap ETFs are, it gives an "average" equity OEF ER of somewhere around 1.3%. That's an unweighted average and a rather silly figure. Since the purpose of this article is to show how expensive (some) ETFs are, it did the opposite, and gave the dollar weighted average ER of 0.70%. A much better figure IMHO, but without labeling, it seems chosen more to support the thesis than to be objective. (Since no one really cares what numbers mean, let's just pick the "best" one for our point.)
  • A Tortoise Wins the Stock-Fund Race (POLRX)
    Here is a little more info about Polen Capital:
    "This is a sign not of laziness but of fussiness among Polen's seven-person investment team, which manages $5.9 billion for institutions, independent advisers and high-net-worth investors, a rapid rise from less than $300 million in 2008. The Boca Raton, Florida-based firm runs separately managed accounts (SMAs) as well as U.S.- and European-registered mutual funds. Nearly all of Polen's assets are in its Focus Growth strategy, which invests in U.S. stocks; it launched a global fund this year."
    From: Polen Capital Article Link
  • High-Yield Bonds Look Attractive
    A section from blog of Steve Blumenthal, CEO of CGM Capital Management Group, Oct 2
    On My Radar: Defaults Will Breach the Historical High Next Year – The Fed is the “Wild Card”
    http://www.cmgwealth.com/ri/on-my-radar-defaults-will-breach-the-historical-high-next-year-the-fed-is-the-wild-card/
    High Yield – Rising Defaults
    Edward Altman, the New York University professor who developed the Z-Score method for predicting bankruptcies, says “defaults will breach the historical high next year and the Fed is the “wild card” that has the power to determine how quickly the current credit cycle ends.” (Bloomberg)
    “We have blamed the wider Junk Bond spreads on Energy issuers, but last week there was a buyer’s strike. If this continues, you can say goodbye to easy financing for M&A which will remove one large pillar of support from stock prices”. (361 Capital)
    * Altice on Friday sold $4.8 billion of junk bonds to fund its $10 billion purchase of Cablevision Systems Corp., according to S&P Capital IQ LCD. When the deal was shopped earlier this month, Altice expected to sell $6.3 billion of debt, investors said. A 10-year bond was priced to yield 10.875%, compared with yields as low as 9.75% that were suggested by bankers initially, according to S&P Capital IQ.
    * Olin on Friday sold $1.2 billion of bonds to pay for its pending acquisition of Dow Chemical Co.’s chlorine-products unit. Earlier in the month, Olin was expected to sell $1.5 billion of bonds, fund managers and analysts said. The annual interest rate on Olin’s 10-year bonds sold Friday was 10%, up from 7% expected earlier in the month, according to S&P Capital IQ.
    * Companies have announced $3.2 trillion of M&A this year, according to Dealogic, emboldened to merge by cheap debt and the long stock rally that began after the financial crisis. That puts 2015 on pace to rival 2007 as the biggest year ever for takeovers. Issuance of junk bonds backing M&A deals hit a year-to-date record of $77 billion through Friday, according to data from Dealogic.

    * A souring of investors on junk bonds could limit the availability of financing for deals that require a lot of borrowing. Banks have been under pressure from federal regulators to reduce their loans to such companies, and a pinch in the bond market could leave those deals struggling for financing. (WSJ)
    * After investors snapped up more than $37.5 billion of bonds issued by junk-rated energy companies in the first six months of 2015, just $5.9 billion has been raised since then, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. (Bloomberg)
    * Junk-bond investors are bracing for a surge in corporate defaults that would exceed the most pessimistic forecast from credit raters as the Federal Reserve contemplates its first interest-rate increase since 2006.
    * A measure of distress in the market is suggesting investors have priced in a default rate of 4.8 percent during the next 12 months, according to Martin Fridson, a money manager at Lehmann Livian Fridson Advisors LLC. That’s almost two percentage points higher than the pace being projected for June next year by Standard & Poor’s, the world’s biggest credit rater, as concern mounts that energy companies that loaded up on cheap debt are going to struggle to refinance. “Unless there is a miraculous turnaround in oil prices there is likely to be a lot of defaults,” Fridson said. “The rating agencies’ approach isn’t capturing the fact that a large part of the economy is far out of step with the overall picture of the mark” (Bloomberg)
    * On HY fair valuation from Martin Fridson this week: Now that the sector has sold off sharply, it’s finally at fair value, finds Fridson, chief investment officer at Lehmann Livian Fridson Advisors. He uses a model that includes current economic and market conditions to judge valuations. (Barrons)
    * Note that fair value can move to significantly undervalued as happened in 1991, 2002 and 2008. Recessions are a bear (no pun intended).
    * The S&P U.S. High-Yield Corporate Bond Index posted a yield to maturity of 7.51% on Tuesday, up from a recent low of 6.21% in late February. Morningstar data shows that the iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG) has lost 3.6% in the past six months.

    image
    Remain tactical with your HY exposure. We are seeing liquidity issues in the market. [...] Corrections create the next great opportunity. As prices decline, yields move higher. Defaults are only a bad thing if you sit on the bus as it falls over the ledge. It will be higher defaults and declining prices and higher yields that will bring us returns like those achieved after the prior crisis.
    @AndyJ @Edmond
    Well, I hope you two get your signals straight this year about who is going to send the memo re. positive "Oct-Dec seasonality." Last year, Q4, Mr. Junk Bond Market didn't get it. :)