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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Mutual Fund Distributions: The Profit And The Peril
    I received my first yearend mutual fund capital gain distribution this week from Thornburg Strategic Income (TSIAX) in the amount of 2.74 cents per share with a payout date of 11/19/2015. I anticipate receiving about a 3% capital gain distribution on the equity side of my portfolio. If this materializes, then the total distribution (interest, dividends, capital gains) received will be north of 5% on current valuation and better than 6% on amount invested. Thus far, this year, I have been able to have competitive performance with my portfolio's benchmark (The Lipper Balanced Index). Times are now tough for us yield seekers as I can remember my portfolio easily paid out better than 8% ten years ago.
  • Jason Zweig: Can You Pick The Guys Who Pick The Guys Who Pick The Best Stocks?
    FYI: Call it “the year of mimicking dangerously.”
    A handful of mutual funds and exchange-traded funds seek to emulate such leading investors as hedge-fund manager William Ackman of Pershing Square Capital Management. Most of these funds are down 5% or more for 2015, and some have lost at least 10% over the past three months as the embattled drug company Valeant Pharmaceuticals International . and other holdings of top investors have tumbled
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2015/11/20/can-you-pick-the-guys-who-pick-the-guys-who-pick-the-best-stocks/tab/print/
  • Mutual Fund Distributions: The Profit And The Peril
    FYI: (Click On Article Title at Top Of Google Search)
    This is the time of year when mutual fund investors in taxable accounts need to be on the lookout for mandatory year-end capital-gains and dividend distributions. Most, but not all, fund companies put out distribution estimates in the fall, though many don’t go out of their way to tell investors about an impending payout—and the taxes they trigger.
    On the whole, investors probably won’t see the same kind of distributions as last year, when funds paid out some $633 billion, according to the Investment Company Institute. Still, a choppy market doesn’t mean that investors aren’t going to be slapped with an unwanted distribution and subsequent tax bill.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.google.com/#q=Mutual+Fund+Distributions:+The+Profit+and+the+Peril+barron's
  • RPHYX / RSIVX: New commentary explains mistakes that resulted in credit losses
    Here's my response to RSIVX, In My Schwab I R A
    Was a $5000.minimum @ Schwab now $100 (see Ted's post here;" Schwab Slashes Minimums On OneSource NTF Mutual Funds"http://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/71575/#Comment_71575)
    PTIAX Buy $100.00 Reinvest Dividends and Capital Gains
    Trade Date 11/23/2015
    http://www.ptiafunds.com/images/website/documents/fund-documents/ptiax_factsheet.pdf
    Another "steady eddie" monthly payer to look @
    SCLDX
    http://scoutinv.com/resources/documents/literature/factsheet/low-duration-bond-fund-factsheet.pdf?c=1448065575921
  • RPHYX / RSIVX: New commentary explains mistakes that resulted in credit losses
    Old_Joe thanks for the compliment but I am not a valued information resource here if only because I am too out of the box especially when it comes to the conventional wisdom on compounding one's nest egg. One reason for that is in my 20s and 30s I was more destitute and impoverished than anyone here. So it required a different mindset to get to where I am now. I've been in a lot of forums in my day and what I like about this one above the others is (save for one) it's real down to earth traders/investors who actually are growing their capital over time. I have but one major complaint and voicing it would just antagonize a lot of posters here who I like and respect.
  • Gross Doesn't Let SEC Guidelines Stand In Way Of Big Bond Bets
    FYI: Bill Gross turned to derivatives to make a big bet on emerging-market debt after taking the helm of a Janus Capital Group Inc. fund more than a year ago. One thing he didn’t let stop him: regulatory guidelines that lay out how much fund managers should use them.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-20/gross-doesn-t-let-sec-guidelines-stand-in-way-of-big-bond-bets
  • The Fairholme Allocation Fund reopening to new investors
    The anti-Berkowitz case is very clear. The pro-case is: great record in the past; huge personal stake in his funds (he owns over a third of FAAFX); high conviction; not an index hugger.
    If I could do it again, I wouldn't have invested with him, but I invested early enough that I'm sitting on big capital gains in a taxable account. When the market as a whole gets near to what I think is a top (I still think we're at least a year away) I will sell, hope for the market to drop, then probably move into an index fund.
    In 2010 there was no manager out there who looked better than Berkowitz: he'd beat the S&P by something like 10 points a year over the past decade, he'd avoided the worst of the 2008-9 crash, he had major skin in the game, tax efficient, etc... And now he's majorly underperformed since.
    Maybe SHLD will eventually rebound and he'll look like a genius. I hope so.
    But I'm increasingly thinking that to chase a star manager is to chase a mirage.
  • Forward Tactical Enhanced Fund to liquidate
    http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/889188/000119312515380610/d12979d497.htm
    497 1 d12979d497.htm 497 FOR FORWARD FUNDS
    FORWARD FUNDS
    Supplement dated November 18, 2015
    to the
    Summary Prospectus for Investor Class and Institutional Class Shares of the Forward Tactical Enhanced
    Fund, Summary Prospectus for Class A, Class C and Advisor Class Shares of the Forward Tactical
    Enhanced Fund, Forward Funds Investor Class and Institutional Class Prospectus and Forward Funds Class A,
    Class B, Class C and Advisor Class Prospectus, each dated May 1, 2015, each as supplemented, and Forward Funds Statement of Additional Information dated November 3, 2015
    NOTICE OF LIQUIDATION OF FORWARD TACTICAL ENHANCED FUND
    On September 22, 2015, the Board of Trustees of Forward Funds (the “Trust”), including all of the Trustees who are not “interested persons” of the Trust (as that term is defined in the Investment Company Act of 1940, as amended), approved the liquidation of the Forward Tactical Enhanced Fund (the “Fund”), a series of the Trust. The Fund will be liquidated pursuant to a Board-approved Plan of Liquidation on or around December 23, 2015 (the “Liquidation Date”). On the Liquidation Date, the Fund will distribute pro rata to its respective shareholders of record all of the assets of the Fund in complete cancellation and redemption of all of the outstanding shares of beneficial interest, except for cash, bank deposits or cash equivalents in an estimated amount necessary to (i) discharge any unpaid liabilities and obligations of the Fund on the Fund’s books on the Liquidation Date, including, but not limited to, income dividends and capital gains distributions, if any, payable through the Liquidation Date, and (ii) pay such contingent liabilities as the officers of the Trust deem appropriate.
    IN LIGHT OF THE PLANNED LIQUIDATION, SHARES OF THE FORWARD TACTICAL ENHANCED FUND WILL NO LONGER BE OFFERED TO NEW INVESTORS OR EXISTING INVESTORS (EXCEPT THROUGH REINVESTED DIVIDENDS) OR BE AVAILABLE FOR EXCHANGES FROM OTHER FUNDS OF THE TRUST.
    ****
    PLEASE KEEP THIS SUPPLEMENT FOR FUTURE REFERENCE
    SUPP TACT ENH LIQ 11182015
  • 2015 Capital gains distribution estimates
    Sequoia Fund SEQUX
    http://www.sequoiafund.com/si-dividends-capital-gain.htm
    "On November 16, 2015, Sequoia Fund, Inc. made a long term capital gains distribution to shareholders of record on November 13, 2015. The distribution amount was $7.98 per share. "
  • Regret Minimization
    Hi Guys,
    Regret minimization is not a new topic. It is studied in academic circles and oftentimes has rather sophisticated mathematical modeling coupled to it.
    But a very thoughtful, practical column on that subject appeared in today’s “A Wealth of Common Sense” by Ben Carlson. Here is a Link to that article:
    http://awealthofcommonsense.com/regret-minimization/
    The piece discusses the tradeoffs between risk and reward, and the need for a balanced investment approach for portfolio survival during the down cycles. Long term thinking is mandatory. It concludes that risk can not be entirely eliminated. Therefore an investor must develop a resilience capability.
    Just this year a book that emphasizes the need for resilience and how to learn it has been published. The book is titled “Stronger”. It was written by three men who have terrific backgrounds in this field including one Navy SEAL. I recommend the book although I have only part way finished it.
    The book identifies five resiliency elements: active optimism, decisive action, a moral compass, persistent tenacity, and a reliable support structure. The good news is that the authors believe resiliency can be learned. Failures are learning experiences. To sharpen resilience, study history and successful investors from the past. And keep things simple. I look forward to more tips as I complete the book.
    In the end, I suspect that keeping cool under duress, having a diversified portfolio, having a reserve that allows the markets to return to you, and having a long term perspective will again be the advice offered. Not too much new there, but the repetition from experts gives comfort. Bogle’s “staying the course” is again practical wisdom, but sometimes difficult to execute.
    By the way, in the article, Carlson asked this series of questions: “Some investors will regret missing out on huge gains while others will regret participating in huge losses. Which regret will wear worse on your emotions? Missing out on future gains or future losses?”
    Kahneman and Tversky’s answer to those questions are embedded in their Prospect Theory. In Prospect Theory, expected gains and losses have an asymmetric impact on an individual’s emotions. Gains are appreciated one-half as much as losses are feared. Therefore, most folks would not accept a potential 10 dollar gain if a 10 dollar loss was equally possible. The wager would only be accepted if the potential 10 dollar loss was matched against an equally likely 20 dollar winning reward.
    Please give “Stronger” some consideration.
    Best Regards.
  • How to Invest in a Slowing China World -- GaveKal Capital
    "...let’s look at China from the 30,000 foot view. From this perspective we observe two things that will unfold over the next decade. First, investment as a share of GDP will fall from almost 50% of GDP to closer to 35% of GDP, if not lower. Second, consumption as a share of GDP will rise from 38% to around to 50%, if not higher...Companies that feed off of Chinese investment in infrastructure will likely struggle and companies that benefit from Chinese consumption will do ok, if not great."
    image
    "...all the common benchmarks for diversified developed or emerging markets (MSCI, FTSE, Vanguard, etc) are around 50% (or more) allocated to the economic sectors with the largest headwinds in the decade ahead. That means that any diversified EM or DM investment products (mutual funds or ETFs) that look anything like the benchmark are by default leaning into the wind rather than letting it push them. "
    See: GaveKal
  • Terror And Markets: Sell-Offs Tend To Be Short-Lived

    DoubleLine's Gundlach: Fed hike 'no-go more likely than most people think' Paris attacks alone are unlikely to play a factor in next month's decision.
    Reuters By Jennifer Ablan Sun.Nov 15th
    DoubleLine Capital co-founder Jeffrey Gundlach said on Sunday that the Federal Reserve may hesitate to raise rates given rocky economic and financial conditions, though the Paris attacks alone are unlikely to play a factor in next month's decision.
    The influential money manager, who recently warned that the U.S. Federal Reserve should not tighten monetary policy in December, said the Paris attacks could pressure stock markets around the globe, "which we know Fed officials have been watching, even if they try not to admit it."
    Gundlach cited a number of asset classes that are signaling deteriorating conditions: The S&P Leveraged Loan Index, which is at a four-year low, the SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond Exchange-Traded Fund "very near a four-year low" and the CRB Commodity Index at a 13-year low. "You also have the Eurozone doubling down on stimulus. Fed raising rates? Really?"
    http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/15/us-doubleline-gundlach-idUSKCN0T417Z20151115#Xa4BZzDyQ3V3uC0h.97
  • The Man Who Hates E.T.F.s
    Krauss' concerns are absolutely legitimate -- especially about ETFs failing to approximate NAV during moments of market stress.
    OTOH, Krauss' concerns are self-serving too. -- lower-fees which ETFs provide are working counter to the profitability of the old-line money-management industry. For any retail investor who was ever sold a "class A" fund for a 7% load, you know that load-funds held a persistent, material difference between bid and ask.
    Fink's comment is also self-serving --- he runs the largest ETF complex, so is quite willing to poo-poo concerns re the risks/shortcomings of ETFs.
    If (a part of the ) problem is that ETFs encourage "short term-ism" by making it very convenient for institutional money, hedgies, etc to make very short-term, low conviction bets, perhaps tax policy could have an effect -- something like: for very short-term trades (say 3 days or less) a "proceeds tax" -- levied not on gains, but on proceeds of sale, of perhaps 5%. This might serve to discourage ultra-short-term speculation, in favor of real investment.
    Too bad the relevant regulatory authority (SEC) are a bunch of hacks who have been co-opted/corrupted by Wall Street, and who have no concern for protecting the retail investor -- on the ETF issue or any other.
    Caveat investor !
  • Terror And Markets: Sell-Offs Tend To Be Short-Lived
    FYI: The deadly terror attacks in Paris are likely to strike financial markets, too, when trading resumes Monday. But the initial losses expected in risk assets like stocks and the shift into safer holdings like U.S. government bonds and cash are likely to be short-lived, history says.
    Investors’ knee-jerk reaction to terror attacks and other "shocks" is to sell so-called risky assets until they have a chance to measure the resulting economic fallout, according to data compiled by Sam Stovall, U.S. equity strategist at S&P Capital IQ. The good news is the losses tend to be recouped relatively swiftly as Wall Street typically concludes that both the domestic and global economy won’t be derailed by acts of terror.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/markets/2015/11/15/terror-and-markets-sell-offs-tend-short-lived/75822426/
  • Bruce Fund BRUFX Drawdown Concerns
    @VintageFreak You can do some homework @ the link below.My largest holding.Often some deep value and thinly traded securities in portfolio.In times like '08-'09, value can get a lot deeper and if few want your IBM shares who's going to buy your Alanco Technologies, Inc. shares.Yes that was an extreme draw down for a M* moderate allocation fund but the long term performance is exceptional.Father/Son managed fund,Consider age and experience?
    One of Ted's favorite links:
    http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/mutual-fund/screener?FundType=0&FundValue=0&ReturnFundPeriod=11
    Management’s Discussion and Analysis REPORT TO SHAREHOLDERS 1
    BRUCE FUND, INC.
    Annual Report
    June 30, 2009 ( Bold added)
    The Bruce Fund (the “Fund”) shares produced a total return of -24.31% for the six months ended December 31, 2008,
    compared to a total return of -28.48% for the S&P 500 Index for the same period. The first six months of our fiscal year
    were dismal. While we thought we were prepared for the onslaught, we were wrong. Positions in low rated convertible
    bonds dropped precipitiously with no support from interest payments. Likewise our common stocks were punished,
    much worse than we anticipated. The U.S. Government bonds showed appreciation in the period and the cash balances
    remained above normal.
    The outlook for capital appreciation is muted. The economy could be weaker for much longer than most believe.
    Preservation of capital is job one. Gains will be hard fought.
    Bear markets do several things; they wash out inefficient companies and create values. There will come a time to be
    more aggressive and we hope we will be ready. Management will continue to screen investment opportunities for their
    capital appreciation potential and profile that against the risks the investment might present. Areas of recent interest
    have been various bonds selling at discounts to par value offering reasonable yields. The bonds as well as the stocks in
    the portfolio encompass significant investment risks, which are again outlined in the prospectus
    Footnotes to some of BRUFX holdings
    (a)
    Non-cash income producing security.
    (b)
    In default.
    (c)
    Private Placement and restricted security under Rule 144A of the Securities Act of 1933.
    (d)
    Variable rate securities; the money market rate shown represents the rate at June 30, 2009.
    (e)
    This security is currently valued according to the fair value procedures approved by the Board of Directors.
    (f)
    This security has no expiration date, it will convert to common stock at a future date
    http://www.thebrucefund.com/document-library.aspx
  • 2015 Capital gains distribution estimates
    Mairs & Power
    http://www.mairsandpower.com/news-and-updates/208-2015-capital-gains-and-dividends
    "The Medtronic acquisition of Covidien earlier in the year created a taxable event for all Medtronic shareholders, including the Mairs & Power Balanced [& Growth] Fund. "
  • Good Haven - GOOD GRIEF!

    What made you get out of AKREX, Akre Focus fund?
    I got out of AKREX because it was a great performer for me. I had lot of capital gains and I needed to sell something to offset loses elsewhere. Lack of manager succession planning decide me. I sold MXXVX and AKREX after buying them in the dumps after the great recession.
    My "when you buy more important than what you buy" mantra kept me out of both. I regretted selling AKREX, but that is more like a mosquito bite. There have been times I haven't sold when I felt like I should have and felt like I was punched in the face. I believe money is not made until you sell. I keep rotating assets in funds I like after they have run up.
    SEQUX, GOODX were on my list. WGRNX, MXXVX, SMVLX are on my list now. WGRNX, MXXVX have started to falter. I will be patient, and even more so with SMVLX.
  • Mizuho financial group buying stake in Matthews Asia
    Bridgeway: http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/why-bridgeway-capital-gives-away-half-of-its-profits-to-charity/
    Still maintaining its 7:1 salary ratio (top to bottom) for full time employees.
    Nice podcast from Knowedge@Wharton.
    Wish there were more people like Montgomery in this world. Wonder why no one calling him socialist / communist yet. I think he would be disqualified for a job at Goldman Sachs.
  • Mizuho financial group buying stake in Matthews Asia
    Bridgeway: http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/why-bridgeway-capital-gives-away-half-of-its-profits-to-charity/
    Still maintaining its 7:1 salary ratio (top to bottom) for full time employees.
    Nice podcast from Knowedge@Wharton.
  • Bond Market Wardrobe Malfunction: Almost all swap spreads have.... a negative number?
    Well, ask and sometimes the World hears you.
    http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/e86a211e-847f-11e5-8e80-1574112844fd.html?siteedition=intl
    "US interest rate swaps, popular derivatives that track government bond yields, have experienced a spectacular collapse this month with an array of reasons being suggested by traders. [...] Analysts at Deutsche Bank say the recent swap spread tightening reflects 'tighter macro prudential regulation, higher capital requirements and reduced dealer balance sheet capacity.' Also playing a role is swapping activity from companies selling debt.
    Some say swaps are a broken market... Under normal market conditions the current inversion should be swiftly reversed, but thanks to tougher bank capital regulation, derivatives trading appears to have entered a new era. Currently, no one appears willing to normalise the relationship between swap rates and Treasury yields.
    Trading Treasuries and swaps relies on funding via the repurchase or repo market. Thanks to balance sheet constraints, the use of repo by dealers is shrinking, another factor sustaining negative swap spreads."

    So, as I read it, the consequences for us would be that our bond/income fund managers, for the time being, have just had a hedging tool taken out of their toolkit. And, once again, we see that the repo market is involved, a part of the shadow banking system that remains largely under-regulated because of humongous efforts by the global financial players to keep it that way.