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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Never Just One Cockroach: Another Distressed Credit Gate Slams Shut on Investors
    OMG, deja vu!
    Here are the founders of Stone Lion Capital:
    Alan Jay Mintz, CPA, a co-founder of Stone Lion Capital was Co-Head of the Distressed Debt and High Yield trading group at Bear Stearns
    Gregory Augustine Hanley, a co-founder of Stone Lion Capital was Co-Head of the Distressed Debt and High Yield trading group at Bear Stearns
    from: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-12-12/eerie-echo-2007-it-really-bear-stearns-all-over-again
  • Funds Failing to Play Defense
    I started a position in First Eagle Global Income Builder (FEBAX) shortly after it opened 3 1/2 years ago, as a defensive compliment to my largest holding, PRWCX. It's done better than the category average, but not too well risk adjusted or versus the S&P 500. I just think I need to give it more time (like a full market cycle) since it's a global value oriented fund which focuses on capital preservation first - and those haven't performed very well the past few years.
  • Funds Failing to Play Defense
    Hi @Lawlar and others,
    I own a small position in CTFAX and I am thinking of plowing most all of my capital gains distributions received this year into this fund thus making it my special investment (spiff) fund. This fund will automatically do what I have been doing manualy except I move, back and forth, between cash and equities and it will move, back & forth, from bonds to equities. Currently, my cash position pays little interest while this fund pays about a two percent yield plus capital gains disbursed twice annually from profits (spiffs) made through it's trading activity.
    I like this fund because it seems to be good at playing defense as well as running a conserative based offense.
    Since, I am traveling, I am making this post through my tablet and not my desk top thus I am unable to link the funds fact sheet as easily as I would through my desk top. But, you might wish to Google "CTFAX Fact Sheet" to get the scoop on this fund. I believe, it has averaged about a six percent annual return over the past ten year period. Since now being retired, I plan to take about a three to four percent distribution from my portfolio each year; and, this fund seems to be a good fit for me in doing this along with growing it's principal over time.
  • Never Just One Cockroach: Another Distressed Credit Gate Slams Shut on Investors
    Hedge-fund firm Stone Lion Capital Partners L.P. said it has suspended redemptions in its oldest fund this afternoon, after many investors asked for their money back.
    image
    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/now-stone-lion-capital-suspends-redemptions-as-junk-bond-market-fears-accelerate-2015-12-11
  • Santa

    Panic in high-yield hits BDCs
    Dec 11 2015, 15:40 ET | By: Stephen Alpher, SA News Editor Contact this editor with comments or a news tip
    Treasury yields are plunging, but high-yield is headed the other way again as investors mull a big selloff in the major averages and oil's plunge to below $36 per barrel.The pain is widespread, but a panic in credit is particularly painful for BDCs. Hitting the tape a few minutes ago, Jeff Gundlach says "there's never just one cockroach" when credit melts down.http://seekingalpha.com/news/2980206-panic-in-high-yield-hits-bdcs?uprof=46
    Gundlach: If Fed met today, it wouldn't hike
    Dec 11 2015, 15:30 ET | By: Stephen Alpher, SA News Editor
    "There's never just one cockroach" when credit melts down, Jeffrey Gundlach tells Reuters, and investors have been on "credit overload."The best trade at the moment, he says, is to sell the S&P 500 and buy closed-end credit funds (not Third Avenue's!)
    http://seekingalpha.com/news/2980186-gundlach-if-fed-met-today-it-wouldnt-hike
    More Coal
    OPEC piled on the bad news. After last week’s removal of a production target, this week the oil cartel released figures that showed the group collectively produced the most oil in three years in November, ramping up output to 31.7 million barrels per day (mb/d). Iraq accounted for most of the monthly gains, achieving more than 247,000 barrels per day in increases from October.
    The bearish news suggests more pain in the offing for U.S. shale. The EIA put out an estimate, expecting U.S. shale to lose 116,000 barrels per day in production in January, with the largest losses once again coming from the Eagle Ford shale (down 77,000 barrels per day).
    http://oilprice.com/newsletters/free/opintel12112015
  • Third Avenue Focused Credit Fund to liquidate
    @Old_Joe
    We might have more opportunities ahead !
    House committee approves easing accredited-investor standard
    Measure with bipartisan support would expand the kind of investors who can purchase unregistered securities

    By Mark Schoeff Jr. | December 9, 2015 - 10:58 am EST
    "We're trying to expand opportunities for Americans to participate in taking a risk but also engaging in the benefits of the upside using their knowledge, not only just a threshold that says you get to invest just because you have wealth," Mr. Schweikert said during debate on the bill Tuesday night.
    As the committee advances the legislation, the SEC has indicated it will soon release a review of the accredited-investor standard.
    Republicans have pushed to expand the accredited-investor parameters, asserting that doing so would help small business start-ups and other emerging investments raise capital.
    http://www.investmentnews.com/article/20151209/FREE/151209918/house-committee-approves-easing-accredited-investor-standard?template=printart
  • DAILYALTS: Mid-Week Reading: Private Equity, Market Neutral, What Is A Financial Plan…
    When Trends Reverse
    Posted on December 8, 2015 by David Ott Acropolis Investment Management
    Some strategies, managed futures being the most obvious, are based exclusively on trend following and they really got hurt last Thursday.
    Managed futures funds attempt to catch trends by buying what has gone up recently and selling short assets that have fallen recently. Going into the meeting, they were short euros and long German bonds (among other things) and were hit with a tough reversal.
    The Newedge Trend Index, an equally weighted index of large managed futures managers, lost -3.66 percent on Thursday, wiping out all of the gains for that index for the year. http://www.newedge.com/en/newedge-indices/
    Although we haven’t really invested in managed futures programs, we have been looking into them over the past several years.
    We’re not opposed to managed futures and trend following, but we don’t feel like anyone understands them like traditional asset classes like stocks and bonds.
    ..there is good data on stocks and bonds that goes back to the 1800s for the US and many decades from countries all over the world.
    As always, we’ll keep looking and learning, just like we did last Thursday.
    http://acrinv.com/when-trends-reverse/
  • What Equity Sectors Are You Considering Overweighting in 2016?
    @Old_Skeet
    Consumer Discretionary Stocks Still Shine As Energy Stays Weak
    By James Picerno | Dec 9, 2015 at 06:58 am EST The Capital Spectator
    image image
    http://www.capitalspectator.com/consumer-discretionary-stocks-still-shine-as-energy-stays-weak/
    From Ted's post today
    Davis also suggests rebalancing toward unloved sectors, such as emerging markets.
    Prudent investors are slightly contrarian at the margins, he said. "A value-based, long-term approach tends to go against short-term market momentum," he added.
    http://license.icopyright.net/user/viewFreeUse.act?fuid=MjEwOTA2NDE=
  • investing in oil?
    @Junkster Bought some Junk yesterday on down draft.
    BGH
    Oil And Gas 17.17%
    10/31/15 Fact Sheet
    http://www.babsoncapital.com/funds/closed-end-funds/babson-capital-global-short-duration-high-yield-fund
    Reminder
    DoubleLine Total Return Webcast titled "Tick, Tick, Tick..."
    Hosted by Jeffrey Gundlach
    Tuesday, December 8, 2015 1:15 pm PT /4:15 pm ET/3:15 CT
    http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/jeffrey-gundlach-to-hold-webcast-today-on-doubleline-total-return-bond-fund-300187399.html
    TSP_Transfer, albeit not my cup of tea right now, you are one of the good guys here so I hope it works well for you.
  • investing in oil?
    @Junkster Bought some Junk yesterday on down draft.
    BGH
    Oil And Gas 17.17%
    10/31/15 Fact Sheet
    http://www.babsoncapital.com/funds/closed-end-funds/babson-capital-global-short-duration-high-yield-fund
    Reminder
    DoubleLine Total Return Webcast titled "Tick, Tick, Tick..."
    Hosted by Jeffrey Gundlach
    Tuesday, December 8, 2015 1:15 pm PT /4:15 pm ET/3:15 CT
    http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/jeffrey-gundlach-to-hold-webcast-today-on-doubleline-total-return-bond-fund-300187399.html
    08/12/2015
    Energy Intelligence Report
    In this week’s newsletter, we will take a quick look at some of the critical figures and data in the energy markets this week.
    image
    We have followed the EIA crude oil inventories closely, as they represent a rough proxy for oil supply/demand balance. Rising inventories indicate production outstripping demand.
    • The chart shows that inventory levels in 2014 began to detach from the five-year average, rising at an accelerated rate at the beginning of the year as U.S. oil production continued to climb. The jump above the five-year average corresponds with the beginning of the decline of oil prices from the June 2014 peak.
    • About 55 percent of the U.S.’ oil storage capacity is located along the Gulf Coast. Cushing looms large because of its basis for the WTI benchmark. But it holds just 13 percent of the country’s storage capacity.
    • The EIA says that the crude oil storage utilization at Cushing and the Gulf Coast is at 70.2 percent, a touch below the record utilization rate of 71.2 percent set in April 2015. Near record-high inventory levels continue to weigh on oil prices.
    Tuesday December 8, 2015
    Crude oil prices plunged to new lows on December 7, following on the heels of OPEC’s decision to scrap its production target last week. The markets are reaching new depths of pessimism, with WTI and Brent breaking fresh seven-year lows, dipping below the nadir from earlier this year.
    The decision to scrap its production target stems from the increasing competition between Saudi Arabia and Iran. As Iran has the intention of bringing 500,000 to 1 million barrels of oil per day back online within the next year, Saudi Arabia decided to abandon all pretense of a production ceiling. As we reported in last week’s newsletter, the practical effect of removing the ceiling will likely be minimal – OPEC members were ignoring it anyways.
    But by erasing the production target from its official policy, Saudi Arabia and Iran could engage in increasing pricing competition and fights for market share. All OPEC members, except for Saudi Arabia, are producing flat out. Iran will soon be doing the same.
    http://oilprice.com/newsletters/free/opintel08122015
  • High Yield Munis holding up well versus High Yield Corp Bonds
    @Junkster Oh yeah, let's have a little rock and roll. So far, a very conventional deterioration, IMO. All that's left is the "contagion effect." Unless a black swan happens by, HY muni should hang in there o.k., though I presently have no chips on that square.
    OIL SPILL
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-08/year-of-distress-for-debt-burdened-oil-firms-just-got-even-worse
    image
    “I can’t see an average mutual fund stepping into energy high yield at these levels,” said Steven Azarbad, chief investment officer at Maglan Capital, a New York-based distressed hedge fund. “This is really a distressed investing market.” He said the “scramble for liquidity” was such that investors “are becoming less sensitive to price. People just want to get out."[my bold]
    Ah, a tune with a familiar melody...... get ready for the "rousing" chorus?
    You say goodbye, and I say hello, hello
    I don't know why you say goodbye, I say hello.
    https://youtu.be/rblYSKz_VnI
  • vanguard fund distributions
    There's no mention of any equity index fund, as is to be expected:
    "Note: Funds not listed do not expect, as of October 31, 2015, to distribute capital gains in December."
    A quick check on M*'s page shows no cap gains in 2013 or 2014 either.
  • vanguard fund distributions
    That's the page for tax filing information (i.e. not estimates). The Vanguard estimate link for its capital gains dividends was posted in the 2015 cap gains distributions estimates announcement thread.
    It is: https://personal.vanguard.com/us/insights/article/preliminary-capital-gains-112015
    You're right that there's been no update, though on that page Vanguard promises to provide final estimates (including income dividend estimates) in early December. The month is still young.
  • Vanguard Whistleblower Could Get Billions In Tax Dodge Complaint
    Nice summary.
    I've given some thought to the reporter's comment following the piece that in theory an investor could come out ahead tax-wise if Vanguard had to pay taxes. (We're coming up on tax season, what else is one going to think about ... Christmas?) It's unlikely that an investor could benefit, but that is not impossible.
    If the Vanguard Group (management company) is required to make a profit, suppose a fund now has to pay the Vanguard Group an extra $100 for profit. The fund will pay expense this out of nonqualified income (if any) that would otherwise have been distributed to investors. (That's the way all fund expenses are handled by all fund companies.)
    Say that the Vanguard Group's blended tax rate (for all the profits it now makes) comes out to 20%. (Marginal corporate tax rate is 35%, but few companies actually pay that.)
    Say that the investor pays 40% on ordinary income, and 20% on cap gains.
    The investor would have paid 40% on that $100 in nonqualified dividends, leaving $60. Instead, the $100 now gets paid to the Vanguard Group. The Vanguard Group pays $20 in taxes and distributes $80 as a qualified dividend to the fund. The fund then distributes the $80 in qualified income to the investor, who pays 20%, and is left with $64. A win!
    I had to make a lot of questionable assumptions, especially about tax rates, and I could still barely thread the needle to make the investor come out ahead. But it is theoretically possible.
  • Equinox funds and EQCHX in particular
    Bitzer, imho, the best shot at figuring out why an MF fund loses or gains a ton on a given day/week is to look at the last portfolio data disclosure and see if the long and short exposures explain it. But of course the disclosures are infrequent and sometimes really sketchy, depending on the outfit, so good luck with that.
    I came to the conclusion after a couple of tries at MF investing in Q4 2014/H1 2015 that they're just not worth it for the "alt" use I had in mind - mainly an investment less correlated with equity that at least partially sidesteps FI duration and credit risk. There were just too many days when equity and MF losses coincided, including some (apparently like yesterday?) when the MF losses were way worse than equities ...
    Fwiw, back when I was giving MFs a trial run, one of the biggest drivers of their gains and losses was currency exposure.
  • Fortunatus Protactical New Opportunity Fund to be liquidated
    http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1552947/000158064215005557/fortunatus497s2.htm
    497 1 fortunatus497s2.htm 497
    FORTUNATUS PROTACTICAL NEW OPPORTUNITY FUND
    Class A FPOAX
    Class C FPOCX
    Class I FPOIX
    A Series of Two Roads Shared Trust
    Supplement dated December 3, 2015
    to the Prospectus dated November 24, 2014, as supplemented.
    __________________________________________
    The Board of Trustees of Two Roads Shared Trust (the “Trust”) has concluded that it is in the best interests of the Fortunatus Protactical New Opportunity Fund (the “Fund”) and its shareholders that the Fund cease operations. The Board has determined to close the Fund and redeem all outstanding shares no later than the close of business on December 31, 2015.
    Effective immediately, the Fund will not accept any new investments. The Fund will begin liquidating its portfolio and will invest in cash or cash equivalents (such as money market funds) until all shares have been redeemed. The Fund will no longer pursue its stated investment objective once it begins liquidating its portfolio. Any capital gains will be distributed as soon as practicable to shareholders and reinvested in additional shares, unless you have previously requested payment in cash. Shares of the Fund are otherwise not available for purchase.
    Prior to December 31, 2015, you may redeem your shares, including reinvested distributions, in accordance with the “How to Redeem Shares” section of the Fund’s Prospectus. Unless your investment in the Fund is through a tax-deferred retirement account, a redemption is subject to tax on any taxable gains. No redemption fees will be assessed on redemptions of Fund shares made after the date of this notice. Please refer to the “Tax Status, Dividends and Distributions” section in the Prospectus for general information. You may wish to consult your tax advisor about your particular situation.
    ANY SHAREHOLDERS WHO HAVE NOT REDEEMED THEIR SHARES OF THE FUND PRIOR TO DECEMBER 31, 2015 WILL HAVE THEIR SHARES AUTOMATICALLY REDEEMED AS OF THAT DATE, AND PROCEEDS WILL BE SENT TO THE ADDRESS OF RECORD. IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS OR NEED ASSISTANCE, PLEASE CONTACT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISOR DIRECTLY OR THE FUND AT 1-844-798-3646.
    ________________________
    This Supplement and the existing Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information (“SAI”) each dated November 24, 2014, provide relevant information for all shareholders and should be retained for future reference. The Prospectus and the SAI have been filed with the U.S Securities and Exchange Commission, are incorporated by reference, and can be obtained without charge by calling 1-844-798-3646.
  • Fairholme distribution and its potential consequences for the fund
    IMHO, we are seriously at the point of overthinking this. "Forced Selling" is more of an issue when market is falling (which of course could always happen).
    One can also make argument manager can then buy shares cheaper subsequently.
    M* is showing 23% cash for FAIRX. The true cash stake might be larger and that can be used to "weather redemptions" from those investors who will not reinvest distributions (yours truly, as a rule)
    Finally, two more things.
    First, let's debate about the dangers of FAIRX more in terms of how Berkowitz invests. What were people expecting? That he will keep AIG stake at 40% forever? Money is made when investment is SOLD. Else it is paper gain. Just one reason I don't reinvest distributions - it is a healthy way to take gains and diversify across your holdings buy re-deploying in another fund.
    Second, of all the faults one thinks Berkowitz is (I include infatuation with Fartiromo which has gotten my goat in the past), he is hardly an idiot. I would like to think he has planned this out a little bit more than what people are giving him credit for, If you purchased FAIRX in June 2015 and are now complaining, I have no sympathy for you.
  • Fairholme distribution and its potential consequences for the fund
    Some additional considerations when a fund has a large capital gain distribution:
    1. If folks are not reinvesting their distributions, that'll mean the fund has to sell to meet those "redemptions". If half of Fairholme's shareholders are not reinvesting, this means 15%+ of the fund is going to be redeemed. Forced selling is never a good thing for a fund.
    2. If you like the fund and have a gain that's less then the distributed gain, you can sell just before the record date and buy back just after to minimize the time you are out. (No wash sales on gains.)
    3. If you like the fund and have a taxable loss, you can still sell use the "sell just before and buy just after" strategy. You'll have a wash sale, but this simply means you start off where you were with an embedded loss - not a big problem. Of course, you can get out for 30 days and get the benefit of the loss this year.
    4. Remember that a distribution is simply a pre-payment of taxes. You might pay more tax this year, but (because of your higher basis) you'll pay less in the future. I'd prefer to control when I pay my taxes, but pre-paying is not a disaster.
    5. If a fund is distributing long-term capital gains, you can sell the fund after the distribution (in the same tax year) and end up with the same tax consequences. This might help if you were surprised by the distribution.
    I hope these aren't too obvious and are helpful.
    Personally, I think funds that have 30%+ distributions have several things going on and they are all headwinds. Giving them a break as they regroup might be a good strategy.