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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Asset Managers: The Tide Turns
    FYI: FOR decades looking after other people’s money has been a lucrative business. Profit margins in the asset-management industry were 39% in 2014, according to BCG, a consultancy, compared with 8% in consumer goods and 20% in pharmaceuticals. The industry’s global profits in 2014 were an estimated $102 billion, allowing firms to pay those picking stocks in the American equity market an average salary of around $690,000 a year. Better yet, asset-management is growing fast: the industry looks after $78 trillion worldwide, and could shepherd over $100 trillion by 2020.
    Yet the outlook for many asset managers is grim. The industry is being reshaped by low-cost competition. At the same time falling markets are shrinking assets under management, and thus fees levied as a percentage of those assets. Regulators, meanwhile, are trying to prevent consumers from being sold inappropriate products, which are often the most lucrative.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21695552-consumers-are-finally-revolting-against-outdated-industry-tide-turns?zid=300&ah=e7b9370e170850b88ef129fa625b13c4
  • Short Term Fund Options
    In the taxable arena, I have a hard time justifying the added risk of any bond fund over the safety of an FDIC-insured bank account. One might eek out a quarter percent or so additional return, but at a cost of volatility along with interest rate and credit risks.
    Right now, it's easy to get 1%+ from banks. (I'm looking at straight savings accounts here, not "rewards" checking accounts that limit the size of the account, require you to make a dozen debit card purchases a month, mortgage your first born child ....)
    DLSNX has missed the 1% threshold over the past year, and has not quite made 1.25% over the past three years. It may look like it's managing interest rate risk (low effective duration), but it is heavily invested in mortgages, which tend to have negative convexity (meaning that prices will drop faster than duration would suggest). And it is at the low end of credit quality.
    I'm not knocking that fund in particular - any fund that gives returns much in excess of bank accounts now is taking risks somewhere or other. Maybe the risks are manageable, maybe not. That's why for taxable yield I'm sticking with banks for now.
    Munis are another matter. There, I think that by going out slightly in duration, one can get respectable returns with what for me is acceptable risk. VMLTX, BTMIX (Baird portfolio stats here), MSINX, etc. SEC yields about 0.9% or better, higher credit quality. While the duration tends to be around 2.5 years, I expect less interest rate movement in the muni market. Rates are lower (because interest is tax-exempt) so the same percentage shift in rates means a smaller change in magnitude than for taxable bonds.
    Banks yielding over 1% include Ally (1.0%), Synchrony (1.05% - formerly GE Capital Retail Bank), Goldman Sachs (1.05% - formerly GE Capital Bank, a different bank).
  • Need muni ETF recommendations
    @msf Thanks for the comments and link to the Uniform Principal and Income Act. I will check with my attorney but I do remember him indicating I should leave the principal intact and take distributions of income. Note that I should not have mentioned “capital gains” but “leave principal intact”.
    I use Vanguard ETFs and try to maintain a 60/40 stock to bond ratio asset allocation, so believe that should qualify as “prudent”. I’m not sure what to make of the Uniform Principal and Income Act. It appears I will need to discuss it with my trust attorney and tax preparation CPA.
  • Need muni ETF recommendations
    I've always been fond of BCHYX (yet another misclassified fund, as it is generally grouped with long term Calif. munis, not HY).
    Perhaps something to investigate is what constitutes "dividend and interest" for distribution purposes. A first question is whether the trust (from your description I assume that's what we're talking about) says "dividend and interest" or "income".
    While mutual fund cap gains dividends are generally not considered income, it doesn't seem as clear they wouldn't fall under the "dividend and interest" guideline - if that's the actual wording that was used. I'm not a lawyer or accountant, so take these comments as random mullings, certainly not advice.
    Here's a brief primer on what seems to be current Calif. law:
    The Uniform Principal and Income Act
    This is the first I've read of this - so not only am I not a professional, I'm barely an amateur on this subject.
    It appears that the law is catching up with investment practices and recognizing that prudent investing often calls for focusing on total return - even for income beneficiaries. That might broaden your investment options.
    To enable investing for total returns, the law now seems to allow some capital gains (part of those returns) to be treated as income for distribution purposes.
    Of course there are prohibitions against self-dealing. It sounds like you're both the beneficiary and trustee, which would make such treatment (called "reallocation") illegal. The article discusses what one can do in this situation (designate an independent trustee).
  • Need muni ETF recommendations
    Hi all,
    I have an account with its tax-id separate from my personal Social Security number. The basic guidelines for this account are to pass through dividend and interest for my personal use but capital gains remain invested in the account. I am interested in purchasing some muni ETFs to reduce taxes. I consider the purchases to be long-term holdings subject to rebalancing in accordance with my asset allocation scheme. These shares would represent 3.5% of my 50/50 asset allocation portfolio. I would be interested in your comments on the following ETFs, or other recommendations.
    VanEck High Yield Muni ETF (HYD)
    SPDR Nuveen S&P High Yield Muni ETF (HYMB)
    iShares California Muni Bond (CMF) (I live in California)
  • Undiscovered Managers Behavioral Value Fund accepts limited purchases
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1047712/000119312516598592/d191660d497.htm
    Revised filing as of 5/23/16:
    497 1 d191660d497.htm UNDISCOVERED MANAGERS FUNDS
    UNDISCOVERED MANAGERS FUNDS
    Undiscovered Managers Behavioral Value Fund
    (All Shares Classes)
    Supplement dated May 23, 2016
    to the Prospectuses dated December 29, 2015, as supplemented
    Effective as of the close of business on June 17, 2016, the limited offering provisions for the Undiscovered Managers Behavioral Value Fund will be revised. As of the Revised Closing Date, the current limited offering provisions in the section titled “How to Do Business with the Funds — Purchasing Fund Shares — What does it mean that the Behavioral Value Fund is publicly offered on a limited basis?” will be removed and replaced with the following disclosure:
    Effective as of the close of business on June 17, 2016, (the “Revised Closing Date”) the Behavioral Value Fund will be offered on a limited basis and investors are not eligible to purchase shares of the Behavioral Value Fund, except as described below. In addition, both before and after the Revised Closing Date, the Behavioral Value Fund may from time to time, in its sole discretion based on the Behavioral Value Fund’s net asset levels and other factors, limit new purchases into the Behavioral Value Fund or otherwise modify the closure policy at any time on a case-by-case basis.
    The following groups will be permitted to continue to purchase Behavioral Value Fund shares. Except as otherwise described below, shareholders of record are permitted to continue to purchase shares; if the shareholder of record is an omnibus account, beneficial owners in that account as of the applicable closing date are permitted to continue to purchase:
    •Shareholders of the Behavioral Value Fund as of the Revised Closing Date are able to continue to purchase additional shares in their existing Behavioral Value Fund accounts either through J.P. Morgan Funds Services or a Financial Intermediary and may continue to reinvest dividends or capital gains distributions from shares owned in the Behavioral Value Fund;
    •Shareholders of the Behavioral Value Fund as of the Revised Closing Date are able to add to their existing Behavioral Value Fund accounts through exchanges from other J.P. Morgan Funds;
    •Approved fully discretionary fee-based advisory programs, where investment discretion (fund and investment allocations) solely reside with the firm’s home office and where the firm’s home office has full authority to make investment changes without approval from the shareholder, may continue to utilize the Behavioral Value Fund for new and existing program accounts. These programs must be accepted for continued investment by the Behavioral Value Fund and its distributor by the Revised Closing Date. Additionally, after the Revised Closing Date, new fully discretionary fee-based advisory programs may utilize the Behavioral Value Fund for program accounts only with the approval by the Behavioral Value Fund and its distributor;
    •Other fee-based advisory programs (including Rep as Advisor and Portfolio Manager programs) may continue to utilize the Behavioral Value Fund for existing program accounts, but will not be able to open new program accounts after the Revised Closing Date;
    •Group employer benefit plans, including 401(k), 403(b) and 457 plans and health savings account programs (and their successor plans), utilizing the Behavioral Value Fund on or before the Revised Closing Date can continue to invest in the Behavioral Value Fund. Additionally, after the Revised Closing Date, new group employer benefit plans may utilize the Behavioral Value Fund for their accounts only with the approval of the Behavioral Value Fund and its distributor; and
    • Current and future J.P. Morgan Funds which are permitted to invest in other J.P. Morgan Funds may purchase shares of the Behavioral Value Fund;
    If all shares of the Fund in an existing shareholder’s account are voluntarily redeemed or involuntarily redeemed (due to instances when a shareholder does not meet aggregate account balance minimums or when participants in Systematic Investment Plans do not meet minimum investment requirements), then the shareholder’s account will be closed. Such former Fund shareholders will not be able to buy additional Fund shares or reopen their accounts in the Fund unless a former shareholder makes his or her repurchase within 90 days of the redemption. Repurchases during this 90 day period will not be subject to any applicable sales charges if such sales charges are normally waived for repurchases within 90 days of the redemption as described in the “Waiver of the Class A Sales Charge” or “Waiver Applicable Only to Class C Shares” sections below. These repurchase restrictions, however, do not apply to participants in groups listed above as eligible to continue to purchase even if the plan, program or fund would liquidate its entire position. If shares are purchased through a Financial Intermediary, contact your investment representative for their requirements and procedures.
    If the Behavioral Value Fund receives a purchase order directly from an investor who is not eligible to purchase shares of the Fund, J.P. Morgan Funds Services will attempt to contact the investor to determine whether he or she would like to purchase shares of another J.P. Morgan Fund or would prefer that the investment be refunded. If J.P. Morgan Funds Services cannot contact the investor within 30 days, the entire investment will be refunded.
    The Behavioral Value Fund reserves the right to change these policies at any time.
    INVESTORS SHOULD RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT
    WITH THE PROSPECTUSES FOR FUTURE REFERENCE
  • Undiscovered Managers Behavioral Value Fund accepts limited purchases
    I don't find these questions so black and white, so I don't consider #1 to be nonsense. I'd like to believe each of us has some threshold beyond which we won't invest, though that may be different for each of us.
    For me, it takes a lot to cross that line. I don't seek out SRI funds. I'll take investment gains and donate to charities. But I still find that I have my limits.
    While it doesn't surprise me to see tobacco stocks in a lot of funds, I found I couldn't stomach funds that bragged about how well they were doing because of their overweighting of companies making a killing (pun intended) in Asian sales. Or companies like Valeant that price gouge on suffering.
    Each of us has different personal standards and issues they care about. I applaud anyone who puts his money (or doesn't put it) where his mouth is.
  • Mark Hulbert: Stop Worrying About The Stock Market Crashing!
    Can't find any source where Icahn used the word "crash". Also, the market doesn't have to "crash" in order for him to make money on his position; it merely has to decline. And he has seemed to have chosen a reasonable point in the market's history at which to initiate such a position ( multiple years of gains and recent new highs, rich valuations by some measures, interest rate tightening cycle, etc. ) He just needs the economic growth data to slow a little more.
    Icahn can basically say " you can invent all of the narrative ( the mainstream financial media ) that you want about my investment moves, I got the money ! "
  • Undiscovered Managers Behavioral Value Fund accepts limited purchases
    http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1047712/000119312516597275/d196409d497.htm
    497 1 d196409d497.htm UNDISCOVERED MANAGERS FUNDS
    UNDISCOVERED MANAGERS FUNDS
    Undiscovered Managers Behavioral Value Fund
    (All Shares Classes)
    Supplement dated May 20, 2016
    to the Prospectuses dated December 29, 2015, as supplemented
    Effective as of the close of business on June 17, 2016, the limited offering provisions for the Undiscovered Managers Behavioral Value Fund will be revised. As of the Revised Closing Date, the current limited offering provisions in the section titled “How to Do Business with the Funds — Purchasing Fund Shares — What does it mean that the Behavioral Value Fund is publicly offered on a limited basis?” will be removed and replaced with the following disclosure:
    Effective as of the close of business on June 17, 2016, (the “Revised Closing Date”) the Behavioral Value Fund will be offered on a limited basis and investors are not eligible to purchase shares of the Behavioral Value Fund, except as described below. In addition, both before and after the Revised Closing Date, the Behavioral Value Fund may from time to time, in its sole discretion based on the Behavioral Value Fund’s net asset levels and other factors, limit new purchases into the Behavioral Value Fund or otherwise modify the closure policy at any time on a case-by-case basis.
    The following groups will be permitted to continue to purchase Behavioral Value Fund shares. Except as otherwise described below, shareholders of record are permitted to continue to purchase shares; if the shareholder of record is an omnibus account, beneficial owners in that account as of the applicable closing date are permitted to continue to purchase:
    • Shareholders of the Behavioral Value Fund as of December 31, 2015 are able to continue to purchase additional shares in their existing Behavioral Value Fund accounts either through J.P. Morgan Funds Services or a Financial Intermediary and may continue to reinvest dividends or capital gains distributions from shares owned in the Behavioral Value Fund;
    •Shareholders of the Behavioral Value Fund as of December 31, 2015 are able to add to their existing Behavioral Value Fund accounts through exchanges from other J.P. Morgan Funds;
    • Approved fully discretionary fee-based advisory programs, where investment discretion (fund and investment allocations) solely reside with the firm’s home office and where the firm’s home office has full authority to make investment changes without approval from the shareholder, may continue to utilize the Behavioral Value Fund for new and existing program accounts. These programs must be accepted for continued investment by the Behavioral Value Fund and its distributor by the Revised Closing Date. Additionally, after the Revised Closing Date, new fully discretionary fee-based advisory programs may utilize the Behavioral Value Fund for program accounts only with the approval by the Behavioral Value Fund and its distributor;
    •Other fee-based advisory programs (including Rep as Advisor and Portfolio Manager programs) may continue to utilize the Behavioral Value Fund for existing program accounts, but will not be able to open new program accounts after the Revised Closing Date;
    • Group employer benefit plans, including 401(k), 403(b) and 457 plans and health savings account programs (and their successor plans), utilizing the Behavioral Value Fund on or before the Revised Closing Date can continue to invest in the Behavioral Value Fund. Additionally, after the Revised Closing Date, new group employer benefit plans may utilize the Behavioral Value Fund for their accounts only with the approval of the Behavioral Value Fund and its distributor; and
    •Current and future J.P. Morgan Funds which are permitted to invest in other J.P. Morgan Funds may purchase shares of the Behavioral Value Fund;
    If all shares of the Fund in an existing shareholder’s account are voluntarily redeemed or involuntarily redeemed (due to instances when a shareholder does not meet aggregate account balance minimums or when participants in Systematic Investment Plans do not meet minimum investment requirements), then the shareholder’s account will be closed. Such former Fund shareholders will not be able to buy additional Fund shares or reopen their accounts in the Fund unless a former shareholder makes his or her repurchase within 90 days of the redemption. Repurchases during this 90 day period will not be subject to any applicable sales charges if such sales charges are normally waived for repurchases within 90 days of the redemption as described in the “Waiver of the Class A Sales Charge” or “Waiver Applicable Only to Class C Shares” sections below. These repurchase restrictions, however, do not apply to participants in groups listed above as eligible to continue to purchase even if the plan, program or fund would liquidate its entire position. If shares are purchased through a Financial Intermediary, contact your investment representative for their requirements and procedures.
    If the Behavioral Value Fund receives a purchase order directly from an investor who is not eligible to purchase shares of the Fund, J.P. Morgan Funds Services will attempt to contact the investor to determine whether he or she would like to purchase shares of another J.P. Morgan Fund or would prefer that the investment be refunded. If J.P. Morgan Funds Services cannot contact the investor within 30 days, the entire investment will be refunded.
    The Behavioral Value Fund reserves the right to change these policies at any time.
    INVESTORS SHOULD RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT
    WITH THE PROSPECTUSES FOR FUTURE REFERENCE
  • The Motley Fools Gardner’s Investment Philosophy
    MJG said:
    "It’s easy for me since it’s within my emotional and intellectual wheelhouse of action minimization style."-
    MJG, That's the name of the game. You've been known to castigate (indirectly of course) those you think are shifting significant invested funds around often. I'd be willing to bet that most of those, including myself, are invested in a core of securities or mutual funds that are within their wheelhouse and that they make very few changes of consequence.
    (There are a few here with particular skills and experience who don't fit that mold - but I could count those posters on the fingers of one hand. Kudos to that small group. They possess skills and temperament most of us lack.)
    What you do observe from time to time MJG are people playing around the edges, tilting slightly towards a particular undervalued sector, adding a modicum of equity risk after big market sell-offs or reducing their portfolio's risk profile a trifle after achieving outsides gains or for other reasons. I recall that back in January you posted that you had reduced your equity exposure somewhat, citing advancing age as the chief reason. I had a feeling at the time that you had also turned a bit less optimistic regarding equities?
    I've shared my approach before and don't wish to regurgitate. But in a nutshell, 80% entails a broadly diversified buy-and-hold strategy. Hell, I don't even rebalance within that area unless a component substantially exceeds/falls below a broad pre-set range. The remaining 20% is also mostly static, split between equities and fixed, but does allow for slight changes in emphasis based largely on perceptions of market valuation (which may be right or wrong) and also allows for the exceedingly rare short-term speculative investment where I might perceive opportunity.
    Half-way through retirement I believe that retaining a small capacity to add or subtract market exposure reduces overall risk and better allows me to stay the course for the long run. I genuinely love reading and following the financial markets, so am comfortable with this type of playing around the edges. Others may not be so inclined. All of this is not to say that there aren't irrational posters who appear to buy and sell everything based on emotion, moon cycles or their predictive prowess. But they're rare here and deserve no attention.
    Regards
  • S&P 500 Treading Water
    By James Picerno | May 16, 2016 at 06:16 am EDT http://www.capitalspectator.com
    Year-over-year returns are still battling with red-ink syndrome. The handful of winners for trailing 12-month column are led by US REITs, which are ahead by a solid 10% via Vanguard REIT E T F (VNQ), based on the past 252 trading days. But the majority of funds post declines. Note, however, that the worst performer for the trailing one-year period is emerging-market stocks. For the first time in recent memory, commodities are no longer dead last—a distinction that now goes to Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets (VWO).
    image
    http://www.capitalspectator.com/commodities-last-weeks-asset-class-leader/
    Asian shares off 2 month lows
    Asian shares recovered from two-month lows on Tuesday after a rebound in technology giant Apple Corp and oil price gains boosted Wall Street.
    Yet concerns about a slowdown in the Chinese economy could weigh on Asian shares after investment, factory output and retail sales all grew more slowly than expected in April, in data published on Saturday.
    In the past month, shares in Greater China are among the worst performers globally, with Hong Kong, Taiwan and Shanghai shares all registering fall of around 7 percent.
    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-markets-idUSKCN0Y8017
  • Oppenheimer's Shuttered Fund Spotlights Challenges For Commodity Strategies
    Few here will remember that this fund made a lot of money for investors in the early part of the new millennia (roughly 1999-2005). I enjoyed double digit returns during some of those years as oil slowly climbed towards the $100 range. I bought the Class A shares in 1997 shortly after Oppenheimer received approval from the SEC, seeking to diversify. It was an early forerunner in the commodities mutual fund area - possibly the first such fund.
    Actually, the fund did not hold pork bellies, lumber or barrels of crude, but invested in the commodities futures markets using derrivitives which allowed most of the fund's assets to sit in T-Bills or cash, earning additional income. A black box? Yes - for certain. But something happened in roughly the 2003-2005 period when they temporarily closed (to all new money) what had been a successful fund. Investors received a letter stating that Oppenheimer had uncovered structural weaknesses in how the fund was being operated which might cause significant losses and that it would be restructured over the coming months to reduce these risks. (I'm relying here on best recollections.)
    When the fund reopened to new money, it wasn't the same fund. It became a perineal looser. As Ted's article mentions, the fund was clobbered by the worst commodities bear market in recent history. But it wasn't managed well either and also carried close to a 2% ER on Class A shares.
    I took a gamble in early 2015 and converted my entire holding with Oppenheimer (5-10% of assets) to Roth. All was in this fund. It was a calculated risk that the fund would bounce sharply. But it never did and dropped another 15-20%. What saved my skin, so to speak, was that in early September '15 I split that money 4-ways. 25% remained in QRAAX. 25% each went into OPGSX (gold), OREAX (Real Estate) and OEMAX (EM bonds). All three of the new funds experienced sharp rebounds after that point. The Roth is now back to break-even. Even QRAAX has had a pretty good year so far (up 6.6%).
    As noted earlier, I have little money with these guys. Looks to me like the quality of many of their funds has fallen during the 2 decades since I purchased shares. Since it appeared they were planning on returning the $$ from the liquidation directly to investors rather than reinvesting it automatically (which would have tax repercussions), I moved the money myself to their Capital Income Fund (OPPEX) for the time being. This amounts to moving from one black box into another. However, the new black box appears better managed.
    :)
    Added note: Really appreciate the Shadow's heads-up on this pending fund liquidation. Nice to be informed early.
  • Consuelo Mack WealthTrack Preview: Guest: Christopher Davis, CEO & Portfolio Manager,Davis Advisors
    FYI:
    Regards,
    Ted
    May 13, 2016
    Dear WEALTHTRACK Subscriber,
    Bankers, financiers or money lenders, as they have been called derisively at various points in history are currently at one of their reputational low points. Presidential candidates from Bernie Sanders to Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump have all taken their shots. Sanders has introduced the “Too Big to Fail, Too Big to Exist Act” which would break up the big banks.
    Dislike of banks and bankers is not a modern phenomenon.
    Thomas Jefferson once stated: “I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies.” You can see why he and Alexander Hamilton, who created the first national bank and was the first Treasury Secretary, had their disagreements!
    Even some titans of industry have been critics. Henry Ford, the Founder of the Ford Motor Company was one of them, stating: “It is well enough that people of the nation do not understand our banking and money system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning.”
    Luckily, that revolution never came. For the record, banking and Wall Street provide the essential fuel for economic growth, mainly money and credit. They enable individuals, companies and governments to raise capital, buy goods and services, build, expand and invest. As this week’s guest points out, the vast majority of us are bank customers!
    Investing in financial stocks in recent years has been challenging. Over the last decade the S&P 500 Financials Index has delivered negative annualized returns whereas the S&P 500 has not. And although their annualized performance over the last five and three year periods has been close to 10%, the group has continued to underperform the market.
    This week’s guest is Christopher Davis, a third generation value investor whose family has a long history of investing in financial stocks and continues to do so today. Davis is Chairman of Davis Advisors, Portfolio Manager of the Davis large cap portfolios, and Co-Portfolio manager since 1995 of the firm’s flagship Davis New York Venture Fund, which was founded by his Dad in 1969. Chris has also been the Portfolio Manager of the fund’s no-load equivalent, Selected American Shares since its launch in 2004. In 1991 he created the Davis Financial Fund, now celebrating its 25th anniversary.
    Rated 4-stars by Morningstar, the fund has far outperformed its benchmark and the market since inception with better than 11% annualized returns. I began the interview by asking Chris why he created a fund focused on financial stocks in the first place.
    If you’d like to see the show before it airs, it is available to our PREMIUM subscribers right now. We also have an EXTRA interview with Davis about how his approach differs from his grandfather’s and father’s. It is available exclusively on our website.
    WEALTHTRACK is also available on a YouTube Channel. So if you are unable to join us for the show on television, you can watch it on our website, WealthTrack.com, or by subscribing to our YouTube Channel.
    Thanks for watching. Have a great weekend and make the week ahead a profitable and a productive one.
    Best Regards,
    Consuelo
    M*: Davis Family Of Funds:
    http://quicktake.morningstar.com/fundfamily/davis-funds/0C00001YWZ/fund-list.aspx
    Selected Funds Website:
    http://selectedfunds.com/funds/
  • Stratus Fund, Inc. to liquidate two funds
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/870156/000087015616000085/s497.htm
    497 1 s497.htm
    STRATUS FUND, INC.
    Supplement dated May 11, 2016 to the Prospectuses, dated October 31, 2015,regarding the Retail Class A Shares and the Institutional Class Shares, respectively, of the Government Securities Portfolio and Growth Portfolio (the “Portfolios”) of Stratus Fund, Inc.
    The Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Stratus Fund, Inc. (the “Fund”) has determined that it is in the best interests of the shareholders of the Fund to liquidate and terminate the Fund. The laws of the Fund’s state of incorporation require the approval of a majority of the shareholders of each Portfolio to effect such a liquidation and termination. As such, the Board intends to call for a Special Meeting of Shareholders to be held on or about June 7, 2016.
    If the liquidation of the Fund is approved by a majority of the shareholders of each Portfolio, the Fund will cease accepting purchase orders from new or existing investors, except for the reinvestment of dividends, effective as of the close of the New York Stock Exchange on that date. The liquidation is expected to be effective on or about June 10, 2016, or at such other time as may be authorized by the Board (the “Liquidation Date”). Termination of the Funds is expected to occur as soon as practicable following liquidation.
    The Fund anticipates making a distribution of any income and/or capital gains of the Portfolios in connection with its liquidation. The liquidation distribution may be taxable. The tax year for the Fund will end on the Liquidation Date.
    Purchasers of Fund shares who purchase from the date of this notice and before the liquidation date may be subject to liquidation expenses that they would otherwise not bear, and also may incur short-term capital gains on losses on those shares upon liquidation.
    Shareholders of the Fund may redeem their shares at any time prior to the Liquidation Date.
    If a shareholder has not redeemed his or her shares as of the Liquidation Date, the shareholder’s account will be automatically redeemed and proceeds will be sent to the shareholder at his or her address of record. Liquidation proceeds will be paid in cash for the redeemed shares at their net asset value.
    If a you are a retirement plan investor, you should consult your tax advisor regarding the consequences of a redemption of Fund shares, or the receipt of a liquidating distribution. If you receive a distribution from an Individual Retirement Account or a Simplified Employee Pension (SEP) IRA, you must roll the proceeds into another Individual Retirement Account within sixty (60) days of the date of the distribution in order to avoid having to include the distribution in your taxable income for the year. If you receive a distribution from a 403(b)(7) Custodian Account (Tax-Sheltered account) or a Keogh Account, you must roll the distribution into a similar type of retirement plan within sixty (60) days in order to avoid disqualification of your plan and the severe tax consequences that it can bring. If you are the trustee of a Qualified Retirement Plan, you may reinvest the money in any way permitted by the plan and trust agreement. If you have questions or need assistance, please contact your financial advisor.
    If the liquidation is approved by shareholders, the Fund’s portfolio managers will likely increase the Fund’s assets held in cash and similar instruments in order to pay for Fund expenses and meet redemption requests. As a result, as of the date of shareholder approval of the liquidation, the Portfolios...
    (more information on the link)
  • New York City Speaker Seeks SEC Probe Of Oppenheimer Funds On Puerto Rico
    Thank hank. Though I'm a buy and hold type, I agree with you that there's a certain gambling aspect to investing. Which is why as a youngster I would look at people in the market and think "you're putting money where?"
    A difference between gambling and investing should be that the former is a zero sum game (or less if one considers the vigorish), while the latter should not be. In fact, if "played" well, investing should maximize the gains for everyone, by putting money to use where it is most productive.
    Regrettably, I'm not as sure that the investment crowd is the more ethical one. (I just got back from a talk by an Occupy Wall Street participant, so perhaps I'm a little more jaded than usual.)
  • Stan Druckenmiller: The Fed has no end game, and 'the chickens are now coming home to roost'

    Same theme not quite the alarm .
    Macro View
    Complacency in Uncharted Waters The next challenge for central bankers is changing monetary policy when the economy has come to depend on it.
    May 03, 2016 Global CIO Commentary by Scott Minerd
    ...Another market area that is clearly not behaving according to the central banks’ script is foreign exchange. Japan’s current laundry list of woes is topped by the strengthening yen, which is a major headwind for its moribund economy. The Bank of Japan is due to convene later this month, and may decide that the best course of action is to intervene directly to drive down the value of its currency. Such direct intervention basically will entail selling yen and buying U.S. dollars, and typically those dollars go to buy U.S. Treasurys. Europe is probably not far behind: It has tepid growth, a strengthening currency, and more potential downside to their policy rates. This means there is a high likelihood of a fairly good bid on Treasurys in the coming weeks that could be sufficient to push the 10-year U.S. Treasury note lower.
    My message to central bankers is the following: Although the waters at the present time might seem calm, they are still uncharted and there are risks beneath the surface. QE and negative interest rates, once thought to be extraordinary measures, have become the new monetary policy orthodoxy in the largest developed economies. The data on the long-run effects are limited, but real-time experience with these policies offers a few lessons.
    ...we learned from Japan that ever larger doses of unconventional monetary policy may be required in the absence of growth-enhancing structural reforms. Moreover, it is incredibly difficult to reverse these policies from an economy that has come to depend on them. Second, in Europe we are learning that such policies offer limited benefits unless paired with a coordinated fiscal plan. Finally, we have learned here at home that trying to “normalize” policy, even in a gradual manner, can strain financial markets.
    https://guggenheimpartners.com/perspectives/macroview/complacency-in-uncharted-waters
    Also
    Markets and life since 2006.
    10 Stats About the Last 10 Years
    May 02, 2016 By Nicholas Colas who is is Chief Market Strategist for Convergex.
    Summary: The headline today that Goldman Sachs’ stock has gone nowhere for a decade got us thinking about general market performance over the last 10 years. The key contours are straightforward: subpar price returns (a 4.9% compounded annual growth rate for the S&P 500) with increased volatility (a VIX that is 25% more volatile than average). From there, things get funky.
    Think back over the last 10 years - how different was your life in April 2006? While you may think your daily existence is largely the same (maybe the kids are older or you’re married now, but that about it…), consider what was actually different about your life in the spring of 2006:
    No iPhone. Steve Jobs unveiled the first iPhone in January 2007, and it didn’t ship until June of that year.
    No Facebook (unless you were in college at the time). Facebook only opened to the general population in September 2006.
    No Twitter. The full version of the product launched in July 2006.
    No Instagram. The picture sharing site only launched in 2010.
    No Kim Kardashian. “Keeping up With The Kardashians” debuted in October 2007.
    No Uber. The company received its seed funding in 2009.
    No iPad. Apple started taking pre-orders on the first-gen product in March 2010.
    It feels like April 2006 demarcates the last days of some Dark Age, or at least a simpler time without the manifold distractions of today. And while you might opt for a world without the Kardashians, imagine it without your smartphone, Facebook/social media, and an iPad to entertain the kids (or yourself). It’s ok – don’t panic. You have them now.
    The journey from April 2006 to April 2016 in financial markets has, of course, been a wild ride. But just as it is hard to remember what daily life was like a decade ago, it is also easy to forget some of the important waypoints that capital markets took from there to here.
    Here are 10 data points about the last 10 years we hope you will find useful:
    http://www.convergex.com/the-share/10-stats-about-the-last-10-years
  • Stan Druckenmiller: The Fed has no end game, and 'the chickens are now coming home to roost'
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stan-druckenmiller-the-bull-market-has-exhausted-itself-210803739.html
    Legendary hedge fund manager Stanley Druckenmiller, who runs Duquesne Capital, says that “the bull market has exhausted itself” after eight years of a “radical monetary experiment.”com/news/stan-druckenmiller-the-bull-market-has-exhausted-itself-210803739.html
    I'm selling my home and buying a RV to live in instead of buying gold.
  • Small/Mid Cap Value Options
    Many interesting funds to consider.
    ICMTX is an intriguing option, but I don't know much about Intrepid Capital Funds. For those with experience investing in Intrepid funds, what do you think of the firm? Thanks in advance for any and all replies!
  • Matthews Asia Renames Fund To Matthews Asia Innovators Fund
    "But has acted like a story stock"?
    Uhhh ... top 3% of all global funds for the past three, five and ten years. It trailed its peers in 2015 by 1.3% and YTD by 3.5%. Their argument is that they favor firms that generate lots of free cash flow, which they take to be a sign of a sustainable business that can finance its own growth without recourse to borrowing. The market lately has emphatically favored "get big quick" story stocks. The four FANG stocks accounted for all of the S&P 500's gains last year but if you look at Netflix (the "N"), they're trading for $110/share and reporting $0.04 earnings/share. Facebook ("F") reported $0.18/share last year against a share price of $115. They do own Alphabet/Google but not Amazon.
    So if "story stocks" are bad and they refuse to own the story stocks, despite their current price momentum, wouldn't that be a good thing?
    Puzzled, as is so often the case,
    David
  • Small/Mid Cap Value Options
    Hi, ep1.
    A lot depends on what you're looking for, beyond "small and midcap." Some folks like deep value, some seek low-vol, absolute value or concentrated portfolio. I ran a quick screen through MFO Premium for SC/MC value sorted by highest Sharpe ratio over the full market cycle. Here's the shortlist:
    Intrepid Endurance (formerly Intrepid Small Cap, ICMAX) - absolute value which means huge cash holdings until compelling valuations appear. Up 4% YTD despite 67% cash which implies that equity portion was up 12%. Lost 18% in the 2007-09 crash. In a similar vein but without full-cycle performance is Aston/River Road Independent Value (ARIVX) - the former manager of ICMAX is at 85% cash and has still gained 8.5% YTD which implies about a 60% gain in the equity portfolio. Most folks have been pretty caustic about the funds because the managers have been steadily harvesting gains and building cash since about 2011 which means they've missed the current party.
    Victory Sycamore Established Value (VETAX) - $4 billion mid-cap fund with a value bias. Nominally has a load though those are often avoidable. Fully invested, consistently top decile performer. Lost 43% in the market crash, substantially less than the index.
    Wells Fargo Special Mid Cap Value (WFPAX) - $3.5 billion mid-cap fund with a value bias, same story on the load. Launched in 1998 but the current team has been onboard about seven years, top 5% performer. Down 44% in the crash.
    Hennessy Cornerstone Mid Cap 30 (HFMDX) - no-load with about a billion. Substantially more volatile than the two funds above, somewhat higher returns, very low turnover.
    Queens Road SCV (QRSVX) - about $135 million, lots of insider ownership, tends toward small blend, top 20% over time. About 20% cash at the moment and up about 5% YTD. Dropped 42% in the crash versus 53% for a comparable index fund.
    Intrepid Disciplined Value (ICMCX) - the all-cap value version of Intrepid Endurance. It's about half cash, half stocks now. 4.5% YTD. Lost 37% in the crash. It's a true all-cap value so it's hard to benchmark - most value indexes are mostly large cap and most mid-cap value indexes are mostly midcap. Eyeballing several, I'd say that a comparable passive product might have lost 50-55% compared to this fund's 37%.
    One possibility with a bit more risk might be Adirondack Small Cap (ADKSX) which dropped an index-like 52% in the crash but rebounded so sharply that it's now leading its peers by 2.7% annually over the full cycle.
    If you're a true believer in the research, you really need to look at Towle Deep Value (TDVFX) which has about the cheapest and smallest-cap portfolio around. Shorter record - just under five years - but very solid returns, vast insider ownership, no marketing, healthy internal culture. Microcap deep value is not, to be clear, a place for the faint of heart.
    Just some teasers,
    David