Hi @BobC,
My bonds have about 3.5 years of effective duration and my cash is in U.S. Government MMFs for now. I'm up to 74% bonds/cash now after a little trading today (incuding a little tax loss harvesting to offset some LT capital gains I took back in February). Thanks for your input, and I agree on avoiding long-term bonds or even intermediate-term bonds that are on the long-term end of the scale.

FYI: We’ve been hearing a lot of talk over the last few days that just a handful of stocks are driving the rally in US equities. This suggests that the gains aren’t representative of broad market strength, but instead strength in just a handful of stocks. We’ll be the first to agree that the S&P 500’s gains this year are the result of gains in some of the index’s largest members, but that’s only because they have grown so large. As we noted earlier this week, the five largest companies in the S&P 500 have a combined market cap of over $2.75 trillion, and the four largest companies in the index have a greater market cap than the entire Russell 2000 small-cap index. Just because the largest companies in the S&P 500 are doing so well doesn’t mean that the rest of the index is doing poorly though.
The first chart below shows the S&P 500 market cap weighted index over the last twelve months. As shown in the chart, after the rally of the last few days the index is currently just 0.52% below its all-time high from 3/1.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.bespokepremium.com/think-big-blog/narrow-rally-is-fakenews/

The amount of dollars you should have in cash/CDs/short-term bonds depends on what you need to withdraw from your portfolio. We advocate 4-6 years, some folks use longer time frames. Let's assume a person needs $1,250 per month from their investments. That would mean $15,000 per year multiplied by five for five years of protected income stream. This does not account for any taxes that might need to be withheld. You would gross up the monthly amount to accommodate that.
On a $300,000 portfolio, that would require $75,000 be in cash/CDs/short-term bonds. Have at least 6-12 months of this in cash or CDs maturing in the near term. The remaining portfolio can be invested as aggressively as your risk profile and time horizon allow. In years when the stock markets are good, you would capture gains from your equity investments to replenish the $75,000. In lean years, you use dollars from your set-aside stash. The last two market crashes have meant recovery of values in about 5 years or less for our clients. The stash means you won't have to sell devalued assets in a down market.
Does this work? Yes. We have used this strategy with many clients for 30 years. The variables are the dollars needed, the number of years selected for protection, whether to withhold taxes from distributions in retirement accounts. Many clients reduce spending in years when returns are not good or negative. Some do not have that option. The key is to establish a very conservative total return projection for your retirement, and be able to adjust your cash flow need. If you base your lifetime income projection (to age 100) on a 7% annual return, you may be asking for a rude awakening.

@BenWP: Bespoke is considered one of the best sources of market and stock information on Wall St. I only link their free info, and like many other financial websites they have some material for free along with a premium package for a fee. Granted much of the data is short term in nature, however; might I suggest you put a cloths pin on your nose and continue reading their links. Here is a relink of the Barron's interview Pual Hickey and Justin Walters Bespoke founders. (Click On Article Title At Top Of Google Search) "Another Year of Double-Digit Gains"
https://www.google.com/#q=Another+Year+of+Double-Digit+Gains+Barron's
Regards,
Ted

@davidrmoran
You are correct, this is not a $10K chart like at M*. This is performance based charting.
@Derf, some of the below may answer your question. If not, let me know here.
The below link describes a bit about how stockcharts adjusts their performance data. I have not read through this link for some time; but recall either from this site or at another info piece somewhere; that the performance is adjusted for any distribution type, including splits; so cap. gains, etc are part of the total return performance numbers. I have used prior data from Vanguard to check a total return for whatever fund for year "x" and the numbers match with what I have found at StockCharts. There may be other sites for this, but I am not aware of such sites.
Additionally, I see @Old_Joe has added some other details, too. Wait there's more.....
Using the 6 month graph and move the days box to somewhere in the middle of the graphic and then you may also "right click and hold" onto either end of the "days slider" and move the right end or the left end to "stretch" the days forward or backward.
I'll probably think of something else, but outside I must go to finish a few chores before the sun leaves my time zone.
Lastly, all of what we are doing with this chart is FREE! And this chart, as you know is active (as has been linked). You may replace any of the tickers in the box below the graph and work with other stock, etf or fund ticker symbols. Just place the cursor at the right of an existing ticker and backspace to remove. One may enter up to 10 tickers separated by a comma. If you have not, save this particular graph page to return to and play with other tickers, too.
http://stockcharts.com/articles/mailbag/2014/01/how-can-i-plot-dividend-adjusted-data-and-unadjusted-data.html
NOTES: This site has a "chart school" and here is a video show and tell video link.
OPPS, did forget one item that I generally don't use; but one may "right click" onto the "day" box and a few other default time frames appear to choose. Keep in mind that if one is viewing, say 3 funds, as with our working example, the looking backward date for all 3 funds will stop at the date of the "youngest" fund. So, if one ticker is only 4 years old, this is as far backward one may view comparisons, although the other 2 funds may be older. ALSO, I recall graph data will not be available backward past 1999.
Regards,
Catch

"Live in the present" might work better as a matter of tactical allocation (stocks or bonds this year? here or there? defensive or aggressive?) but the strategic question (how much do I need to squirrel away over each of the next 35 years to have a reasonable chance of meeting my goals) has to include a "likely market return" variable.
Over 35 years, shifting the assumed annual return from 4% to 6% annual return changes your end value by 100%. (That's a simple compounding calculation assuming nothing other than a fixed amount invested and held for 35 years.)
I'd also be cautious about taking double-digit growth in the stock market as an entitlement. It might return 15% a year this century and the dividend checks might be delivered by unicorns, but I'm not sure that's the way to plan. Market returns are a combination of capital appreciation plus dividends. Capital appreciation is a combination of economic growth plus P/E expansion (a/k/a the supply of greater fools). The lower your starting P/E, the greater the prospect of expansion.
In the 20th century, per capita US GDP grew 2.3% annually; in the current century, it's been about 1%. P/Es in the 20th century averaged in the low teens; in the 21st, they're in the mid 20s.
Perhaps the rise of our Robot Overlords will change everything. Perhaps The Chinese Century will be different. Perhaps Mr. Trump's tax package will sail through Congress unscathed by partisans or lobbyists, hundreds of billions in overseas earnings will be repatriated and American corporations will again be the envy of the world.
Don't know. For me, the question is just, do I want to bet my future security on it?
David

There are a lot of thoughts when it comes to investing and if one should as some say market time using some common known and often written about investment strategies. From my perspective, if they did not work folks would not write about some of the more commonly known and the more easily used strategies.
From my own experience, I've been successful with my special investment positions because my account through the years has often commented to me ... You owe taxes on your stock market profits. Sometimes he ask ... Did you have losses that could have been sold to offset some of these gains? And, my answer is usually ... No.
With this ... I plan to continue opening and closing special investment positions from time-to-time as I feel warranted.
Skeet

Hi @Old_Joe,
I hope you have a most enjoyable trip. My wife and I plan a fall trip to Panama and we have given trading authority on our investment and retirement accounts to our son ... just in case account action might be warranted ... plus he is also our Power of Attorney so he can handle other matters should it become necessary. I'm not wanting to sell down our taxable accounts before we travel out of the States because come tax time I'd be paying tax on the capital gains just to re-enter the market a bit later plus a good bit of our invstment worth is held in these accounts. The retirement accounts are a little different as we don't pay taxes until we take withdrwals. So selling out and then going back in could be done without capital gain taxes along with I'm thinking you have a certain period of time you can reinvest the sell proceeds commission free. Check with your broker first before doing this.
Have a great trip ...
Old_Skeet

Hi @VintageFreak,
I took a look at WGRNX and from a quick review of its M* report I went no further as it seems ...
@JoJo26 pulled the hat trick selecting MSFAX and thus far it is the top dog from what I am finding in looking through a good number of world stock funds. MSFAX has a threshold to purchase at a cool five mil; however, I have found another share class MGGPX of this fund that I can purchase with a much lower threshold but with a sales load. For now, I plan to continue with THOAX as a member of my global growth sleeve and thus far over the past five plus years I have owned it, it has served me well. Besides, I'd have a sizeable capital gains tax bill (for me) if I sold it.
Thanks again JoJo26 for the tip on MSFAX ... I'm now thinking you've selected the winning fund. It would be nice to hear form @ep1 as to what he thinks ... since, he picked our brains so-to-speak.
Have a good day!

Hi Tony, I'll have to check out the last two indicators you mentioned - not familiar with them. I've kept it pretty simple on my end, just trying to avoid larger than the "normal" drawdowns in my fairly conservative retirement portfolio and picking spots here and there for buys with a decent probability of gains. -- AJ

I'm also not a fan of ETFs. Though I can't speak for David, I suspect some of my objections overlap with his.
- bid/ask spread. With an ETF you're almost guaranteed to lose. (Even if you put in a limit order, that's primarily going to protect you against momentary market jiggles, not spread.) An OEF gives you 100c on the NAV dollar.
- tracking error. Not vs. the index (OEF index funds have the same propensity), but vs. the NAV (even after allowing for bid/ask spread). Authorized participants act to keep the price close to NAV, but only if their cost (trading the underlying securities plus the fee to convert creation units) is less than the deviation of the market price from NAV. They are less inclined to act when the market is in turmoil, i.e. when you're more likely to want to get out of a position.
There is a counter argument for foreign funds, viz. the market can price foreign index funds better than an OEF fund board using fair value pricing. Color me skeptical here. Even ETFs use fair value pricing when generating intraday indicative values.
- petty SEC Section 31 fees on ETF sales.
- often no cost advantage (e.g. Vanguard Admiral class shares vs. Vanguard ETF class shares of the same portfolio).
On the plus side for ETFs, in theory ETFs are more tax-efficient. I say in theory because many OEF broad based funds are well managed and distribute little if any cap gains as well. Nor does this matter in tax-advantaged accounts.
Another plus is that you can buy ETFs with lower commissions than you can buy TF funds.

Some background ...
MFO's Fund Family Scorecard measures how well funds run by the same management company have performed against their peers since inception.
We first published the card in June 2014 commentary with How Good Is Your Fund Family?, followed by updates in May 2015 and May 2016. Beginning in June 2016, our premium site updates the card monthly and provides fund family metrics.
Scorecard ranking is based on absolute total return, reflecting reinvested dividends and expenses, but excluding any load, since first full month of fund inception (or back to Jan 1960, which starts our Lipper database).
A "fund family" comprises at least 3 funds, excluding money market, age 3 months or more, oldest share class only. The methodology is strictly quantitative, based on past performance of existing funds. It does not account for survivorship bias, category drift, management or strategy changes.
OK, with that out of way, this month seven new fund families entered the scorecard. They are: Alambic, Amplify, Leader, MML, Polen, Vest and W E Donoghue.
Alambic and Polen both entered the scorecard with a "Top Fund Family" rating. All of their funds have beaten their peers since inception (click on image to enlarge):


Alambic Investment Management LP was founded in 2013 and is based in San Francisco, CA.
Polen Capital Management LLC was founded in 1989 and is based in Boca Raton, FL.

@MFO Members: The ALPS | Red Rocks Listed Private Equity Fund is an open-end mutual fund that provides investors with exposure to private businesses by investing in publicly-traded private equity companies that trade on global exchanges. These listed private equity companies have direct ownership, control and influence over the privately held businesses in their portfolios. The Fund assembles approximately 30-50 holdings and is diversified by stage of investment, geography, industry, and capital structure. Investors enjoy daily liquidity and valuation, and the primary mission of the Fund is to maximize total return. Regards,
Ted
(Source) Fund Website
Fund Holdings:
http://www.alpsfunds.com/holdings/alps-red-rocks-listed-private-equity-fund

Actually Ares Capital (ARCC)--described inaccurately in the story--invests primarily in the debt of private companies, not equity. Only a handful of these BDC securities in the U.S. and proxies in foreign markets invest mainly in private equity.

" High levels of portfolio turnover may indicate higher transaction costs and may result in higher taxes for you if your Fund shares are held in a taxable account."
Straight from the prospectus. It's got several more sentences about how turnover affects costs and how short term gains affect taxes. Can't say the fund isn't upfront about things. It even lists high turnover as an investment risk.
Hard to tell whether this high turnover is an anomaly or to be expected. The AUM have fluctuated wildly, though the correlation with turnover here isn't obvious:

2012    2013     2014    2015    2016
AUM        $49K    $8.6M    $10M   $0.85M   $4.3M
turnover    76%     64%      89%    108%     194%

Near the end of 2015, AllianzGI Behavioral Advantage Large Cap Fund was reorganized into this fund. So the earlier figures are substantially meaningless. Same management but different "principal investment strategies, as well as fees and expenses." (Again, quoting prospectus.) Without knowing more, I'm inclined to attribute the plummet in AUM to the reorganization of the fund.

@The Pudd
WSBFX and BTBFX is practically the "Same" fund. One of them claims to be "socially responsible" version of the other.
VWELX I already got, not sure I need VWINX
Looking for go anywhere managers with BVAOX and not looking for small cap fund, so not sure DISSX compares.
BULLX, again is go anywhere and capital preservation is a mandate. PARWX is from Parnassus, the company that holds Wells Fargo. Pass.
GTSOX is expensive? 0.85% ER. Please do tell alternative option.

Nothing is zero risk. Wells Fargo funds shouldn't be bought on first principles.
Take a look at SIRIX and SSIIX. ER is very high, but these guys seem to be navigating portfolio well and do actively focus on capital preservation. I've had SIRIX in my IRA for a while along with RPHYX and RSIVX.

Indexing depends on active management to allocate capital; thus the two are parts of an ecosystem. The question is what is the equilibrium for the two, in the sense of stable shares of the market? We're not there yet, but at some point we will be.
Nick de Peyster
Undervalued Stocks

"I'm looking at the 5-year tax adjusted returns for RPHYX and it's 1.40%. Three years is 0.90%. "
Okay, but what are you saying? That this is better than cash, or that it's worse than more volatile funds?
If someone was in the top marginal tax bracket (that's how M* computes tax-adjusted returns), then they probably owned RPHIX that gave an extra 1/6% or so in return (after taxes). You can also add another 0.1%/year to the after tax return to account for the capital loss writeoff when cashing out. (Shares were around $10/share until about 3 years ago; they're now around $9.75.)
So over five years, the after tax return looks closer to 1.65%. Not bad compared to a five year CD (offered five years ago). Even before taking out the 30+% (top rate) taxes on that CD.
http://www.bankrate.com/banking/cds/historical-cd-interest-rates-1984-2016/
The after-tax return also looks good compared to short-intermediate muni funds like BTMIX, VMLUX, or FSTFX. (I'm inclined to look in this duration range for muni funds; anything shorter doesn't seem to pay enough to beat cash, and anything longer seems to have too much interest rate risk.)

I don't have any money with this horse and will not; but was curious. I checked with my favorite site for total return, and the graphic is at the below link.
I also checked performance at M*, with their closest return indicator at 5 years and the total return numbers since inception are very close.
I fired up my handy-dandy HP-12C and did rough numbers.
RPHYX data is for a time period of 6 years; and has a total return of 17.75% in this time frame. The rough math indicates an annualized return of 2.89 (M* reads 2.76% at the 5 year return), before any taxes, if held in such an account.
Stockcharts by default, uses adjusted calculations for returns. The adjustments are for common items as; dividends, cap. gains, splits and assumes everything reinvested; whatever affects total return. I prefer this method versus the commonly used price/NAV only shown at many charts. I want the whole picture for the investment return. If one wants price only appreciation, an _ is placed in front of the ticker symbol.
The below linked chart is "active", meaning that you may add up to 9 more tickers separated by a comma; if you want to compare something else. Save the page for future use, if you have not. Lastly, Stockcharts will not chart a ticker that has not yet attained an age of 2 years.
One may move the slider bar under the graphic to change the begin and end period if you want to view a particular period.
Pillow time here,being a bit to the tired side ......hoping for no errors in the above; .
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?RPHYX&n=1519&O=111000