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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Bruce Berkowitz’ Bets Big On Sears, Fannie Mae, And Freddie Mac
    @Shostakovich,
    Actually when I look at the old portfolios and annual reports I see the fund was then a truly all-cap fund with a few large companies like--Berkshire Hathaway--to some tiny companies like Gladstone Capital and Wlitel Communications and a number of mid-sized ones too. Here's an excerpt from the 2003 semi-annual report:
    We continue to act with the knowledge that the golden rule of investing is: Don't Lose. And the best way we know to follow that rule is to buy parts of good businesses run by exceptional people at the right price. We are continually on the search to find the next Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger, Joe Steinberg and Ian Cumming, Jack Byrne - the next business thoroughbreds. While our search goes on, we will continue to buy more of what we know and understand best, subject only to paying the right price and the position limits imposed on the Fund by law.
    https://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1096344/000109380103000886/ncsr-703.txt
    Even in the case of large companies it did own back then, I don't know how you go from buying a company like Berkshire Hathaway, which has long had a balance sheet like Fort Knox, to AIG and Fannie Mae.
  • Grand Prix Investors Fund to liquidate
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1496315/000116204417000567/grandprixfundsupplement.htm
    497 1 grandprixfundsupplement.htm
    GRAND PRIX INVESTORS TRUST
    (the “Trust”)
    566 West Lancaster Blvd., Suite #1
    Lancaster, CA 93534
    GRAND PRIX INVESTORS FUND
    Supplement dated June 29, 2017 to the Grand Prix Investors Fund’s Prospectus, Summary Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information, each dated December 1, 2017
    ______________________________________________________________________
    The Board of Trustees of Grand Prix Investors Trust (the “Trust”) has determined that it is in the best interests of the Grand Prix Investors Fund (the “Fund”) and its shareholders to close the Fund effective July 28, 2017 (“Liquidation Date”).
    Effective immediately, the Grand Prix Investors Fund will not accept any new investments, and will no longer pursue its stated investment objective. The Grand Prix Investors Fund will begin liquidating its portfolio and will invest in cash equivalents until all shares have been redeemed. Any capital gains will be distributed as soon as practicable to shareholders and reinvested in additional shares, unless you have previously requested payment in cash. Shares of the Fund are otherwise not available for purchase.
    Accordingly, the prospectus has been amended:
    References to Grand Prix Investors Fund. All references to the Fund in the Trust’s Registration Statement are deleted effective as of June 29, 2017.
    Suspension of Sales. Effective immediately, the Fund will no longer accept orders to buy shares of the Fund from any new investors or existing shareholders.
    Prior to July 28, 2017, you may redeem your investment in the Fund, including reinvested distributions, in accordance with the “How to Redeem Shares” section in the Prospectus. Unless your investment in the Fund is through a tax-deferred retirement account, a redemption is subject to tax on any taxable gains. Please refer to the “Tax Status, Dividends and Distributions” section in the Prospectus for general information. You may wish to consult your tax advisor about your particular situation.
    ANY SHAREHOLDERS WHO HAVE NOT EXCHANGED OR REDEEMED THEIR SHARES OF THE GRAND PRIX INVESTORS FUND PRIOR TO JULY 28, 2017 WILL HAVE THEIR SHARES AUTOMATICALLY REDEEMED AS OF THAT DATE, AND PROCEEDS WILL BE SENT TO THE ADDRESS OF RECORD. If you have questions or need assistance, please contact your financial advisor or the Fund at 1‐800‐453-6556.
    IMPORTANT INFORMATION FOR RETIREMENT PLAN INVESTORS
    If you are a retirement plan investor, you should consult your tax advisor regarding the consequences of a redemption of Fund shares. If you receive a distribution from an Individual Retirement Account or a Simplified Employee Pension (SEP) IRA, you must roll the proceeds into another Individual Retirement Account within sixty (60) days of the date of the distribution in order to avoid having to include the distribution in your taxable income for the year. If you receive a distribution from a 403(b)(7) Custodian Account (Tax-Sheltered account) or a Keogh Account, you must roll the distribution into a similar type of retirement plan within sixty (60) days in order to avoid disqualification of your plan and the severe tax consequences that it can bring. If you are the trustee of a Qualified Retirement Plan, you may reinvest the money in any way permitted by the plan and trust agreement.
    You should read this Supplement in conjunction with the Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information dated December 1, 2016, which provides information that you should know about the Grand Prix Investors Fund, and should be retained for future reference. These documents are available upon request and without charge by calling the Fund at 1‐ 800‐453-6556.
    ______________________________________________________________________
    PLEASE RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT FOR FUTURE REFERENCE
    #
  • U.S. Housing Stocks May Rally As Millennials Age:
    FYI: Stocks of large U.S. home builders and building materials companies are poised to rise as millennials age and need housing, according to Bill Smead, the chief executive of Smead Capital Management.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-smeadcapital-housing-idUSKBN19J2JX?il=0
    M* Snapshot SMVLX:
    http://www.morningstar.com/funds/XNAS/SMVLX/quote.html
    Lipper Snapshot SMVLX:
    http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/smvlx
    SMVLX Is Unranked In The (LCB) Fund Catrgory By U.S. Nesws & World Report:
    http://money.usnews.com/funds/mutual-funds/large-blend/smead-value-fund/smvlx
  • Arrow Commodity Strategy Fund to liquidate
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1527428/000158064217003629/arrowcommodity_497e.htm
    497 1 arrowcommodity_497e.htm 497
    ARROW COMMODITY STRATEGY FUND
    CLASS A SHARES: CSFFX
    CLASS C SHARES: CSFTX
    INSTITUTIONAL CLASS SHARES: CSFNX
    (a series of Arrow Investments Trust)
    Supplement dated June 27, 2017 to
    the Summary Prospectus, Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information dated December 1, 2016
    The Board of Trustees of Arrow Investments Trust (the “Board”) has determined, based on the recommendation of the Fund’s adviser, that, with respect to the Arrow Commodity Strategy Fund (the “Fund”), a series of the Arrow Investments Trust, it is in the best interests of the Fund and its shareholders that the Fund cease operations. The Board has determined to close the Fund and redeem all outstanding shares on July 28, 2017.
    Effective June 28, 2017, the Fund will not accept any purchases and will no longer pursue its stated investment objective. The Fund may begin liquidating its portfolio and may invest in cash equivalents such as money market funds until all shares have been redeemed. Any capital gains will be distributed as soon as practicable to shareholders. Shares of the Fund are otherwise not available for purchase.
    After June 28, 2017 and prior to July 28, 2017, you may redeem your shares, including reinvested distributions, in accordance with the “How to Redeem Shares” section in the Prospectus. No redemption fee or contingent deferred sales load will be charged on any redemption or exchange. Unless your investment in the Fund is through a tax-deferred retirement account, a redemption is subject to tax on any taxable gains. Please refer to the “Tax Status, Dividends and Distributions” section in the Prospectus for general information. You may wish to consult your tax advisor about your particular situation.
    Arrow Investment Advisors, LLC, the Fund’s investment adviser, serves as investment adviser to several other mutual funds in the Trust. As discussed in the Fund’s prospectus, you may exchange your Fund shares for shares of the same Class of another fund in the fund complex advised by Arrow Investment Advisors, LLC (an “Arrow Fund”). Exchanges are made at net asset value. Except as stated herein, exchanges are subject to the terms applicable to purchases of an Arrow Fund’s shares as set forth in the applicable fund’s prospectus. An exchange of Fund shares to another Arrow Fund will be treated as a sale for federal income tax purposes.
    ANY SHAREHOLDERS WHO HAVE NOT REDEEMED THEIR SHARES OF THE FUND PRIOR TO JULY 28, 2017 WILL HAVE THEIR SHARES AUTOMATICALLY REDEEMED AS OF THAT DATE, AND PROCEEDS WILL BE SENT TO THE ADDRESS OF RECORD. IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS OR NEED ASSISTANCE, PLEASE CONTACT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISOR DIRECTLY OR THE FUNDS AT 1-877-277-6933.
    IMPORTANT INFORMATION FOR RETIREMENT PLAN INVESTORS
    If you are a retirement plan investor, you should consult your tax advisor regarding the consequences of a redemption of Fund shares. If you receive a distribution from an Individual Retirement Account or a Simplified Employee Pension (SEP) IRA, you must roll the proceeds into another Individual Retirement Account within sixty (60) days of the date of the distribution in order to avoid having to include the distribution in your taxable income for the year. If you receive a distribution from a 403(b)(7) Custodian Account (Tax-Sheltered account) or a Keogh Account, you must roll the distribution into a similar type of retirement plan within sixty (60) days in order to avoid disqualification of your plan and the severe tax consequences that it can bring. If you are the trustee of a Qualified Retirement Plan, you may reinvest the money in any way permitted by the plan and trust agreement.
    This Supplement and the existing Summary Prospectus, Prospectus, and Statement of Additional Information dated December 1, 2016, provide relevant information for all shareholders and should be retained for future reference. The Summary Prospectus, Prospectus, and Statement of Additional Information dated December 1, 2016, have been filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission, are incorporated by reference and can be obtained without charge by calling the Fund at 1-877-277-6933.
  • New Century Portfolios to liquidate
    What a shame to see these go. A mere 1.96% ER gets you this portfolio of 32 MFs & ETFs (in the Capital Portfolio):
    http://portfolios.morningstar.com/fund/holdings?t=NCCPX&region=usa&culture=en-US
  • New Century Portfolios to liquidate
    New Century Capital Portfolio
    New Century Balanced Portfolio
    New Century International Portfolio
    New Century Alternative Strategies Portfolio
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/838802/000139834417007945/fp0026390_497.htm
    497 1 fp0026390_497.htm NEW CENTURY PORTFOLIOS - 497E
    Filed Pursuant to Rule 497(e)
    1933 Act File No. 33-24041
    1940 Act File No. 811-5646
    NEW CENTURY PORTFOLIOS
    (the “Trust”)
    Supplement dated June 26, 2017 to the Trust’s
    Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information, each dated March 1, 2017
    On June 15, 2017, the Board of Trustees (the “Board”) of the Trust, based upon the recommendation of Weston Financial Group, Inc. (the “Adviser”), the investment adviser to the Trust, and having considered the interests of the shareholders of the Trust, voted to recommend that the shareholders adopt an Agreement and Plan of Liquidation (the “Plan”) to close and liquidate the Trust. The Board concluded that it would be in the best interest of the Trust and its shareholders that the Trust be closed and liquidated effective as of the close of business on September 29, 2017. The Trust has called a special meeting of shareholders to be held in the offices of the Trust at 10:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday, August 22, 2017, to vote on the proposed Plan.
    The Board recommends approval of the proposed Plan, which determines the manner in which the Trust will be liquidated. Pursuant to the Plan and in anticipation of the Trust’s liquidation, the Trust will be closed to new purchases effective as of the close of business on June 30, 2017. However, (i) any dividends or distributions declared to shareholders of the Trust after June 30, 2017, and until the close of trading on the New York Stock Exchange on September 29, 2017 will be automatically reinvested in additional shares of the Trust unless a shareholder has requested that such distributions be paid in cash, and (ii) investments received from existing Automatic Investment Programs (an “AIP”) will be accepted by the Trust through September 1, 2017. If the Plan is approved at the special shareholders meeting, shareholders with an AIP should arrange to direct their contributions to another investment alternative of their choosing. Results of the special meeting of shareholders will be posted on the Trust’s website on August 23, 2017 at www.newcenturyportfolios.com.
    Although the Trust will be closed to new purchases as of June 30, 2017, you may redeem your shares of the Trust at any time as provided in the Prospectus. Please note, however, that if the Plan is approved, the Trust will be liquidating and distributing its assets no later than the close of business on September 29, 2017. Redemption requests received immediately preceding the September 29th liquidation may be honored by the delivery of the liquidation proceeds to the shareholder.
    Pursuant to the Plan, if the Trust has not received your redemption request or other instruction prior to the close of business on September 29, 2017, the effective time of the liquidation, your shares will be redeemed, and you will receive proceeds representing your proportionate interest in the net assets of the Trust as of September 29, 2017, subject to any required withholdings. As is the case with any redemption of Trust shares, liquidation proceeds will generally be subject to federal and, as applicable, state and local income taxes if the redeemed shares are held in a taxable account and the liquidation proceeds exceed your adjusted basis in the shares redeemed. If the redeemed shares are held in a qualified retirement account such as an IRA, the liquidation proceeds may not be subject to current income taxation under certain conditions. You should consult with your tax adviser for further information regarding the federal, state and/or local income tax consequences of this liquidation that are relevant to your specific situation.
    All routine expenses incurred in connection with the usual and customary operations of the Trust (including brokerage commissions associated with the sale of portfolio securities) will be charged to the Trust, however, expenses incurred in connection with the consideration and approval of the proposed Plan and expenses outstanding on and after the time of liquidation will be paid by the Adviser.
    Please retain this supplement with your Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information.
  • Josh Brown: Opposite Day
    Brown's analysis ignores the role human capital or job security play into one's portfolio. A young person who has no job security and little saved should actually be more conservative investment-wise than someone older to maintain for instance an emergency fund in case of job loss. Jobs are much less stable today than in the past in general, so some conservative behavior may be warranted. Young people also may want to invest in their human capital by getting an advanced professional degree instead of investing in their financial portfolio. Would you tell for instance a young future medical student to invest more in stocks or pay their tuition and invest the remainder conservatively?
  • L.A.'s Capital Group Accused Of Bilking Employees — By Pushing Its Own Mutual Funds
    FYI: Los Angeles finance giant Capital Group manages dozens of mutual funds, all of them run by human beings who pick individual stocks and bonds to buy or sell.
    And the vast majority of the assets of the company’s employee retirement savings plan is invested in those same funds.
    Now, a former Capital Group worker is suing the firm, alleging it violated federal retirement savings rules by pushing workers into its own funds rather than offering investments from outside firms that charge lower fees.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-capital-group-retirement-20170622-story.html
  • Bitcoin Gains 174 Percent In Just Six Months: Should It Be Part Of Your Portfolio?
    FYI: Bitcoin is kicking sand in the face of traditional investments. Between July 1, 2013 and June 13, 2017, it gained 3,130 percent. To put that in perspective, it took Vanguard’s S&P 500 thirty years (from its 1976 inception) to make investors that much money.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://assetbuilder.com/knowledge-center/articles/bitcoin-gains-174-percent-in-just-six-months-should-it-be-part-of-your-portfolio
  • Alpine Emerging Markets Real Estate Fund to liquidate
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/842436/000139834417007827/fp0026362_497.htm
    497 1 fp0026362_497.htm
    ALPINE EMERGING MARKETS REAL ESTATE FUND
    A SERIES OF ALPINE EQUITY TRUST
    SUPPLEMENT DATED JUNE 22, 2017
    TO THE SUMMARY PROSPECTUS, PROSPECTUS AND
    STATEMENT OF ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
    DATED FEBRUARY 28, 2017
    On June 22, 2017, the Board of Trustees (the “Board”) of the Alpine Emerging Markets Real Estate Fund (the “Fund”), a series of Alpine Equity Trust (the “Trust”), determined to terminate and wind up the Fund.
    Terminating and winding up the Fund requires approval by a “majority of the outstanding voting securities” of the Fund, as defined in the Trust’s Declaration of Trust, and the Investment Company Act of 1940, as amended. A Special Meeting to vote on this is expected to occur in the third quarter of 2017. If approved by shareholders, the Fund is expected to cease operations shortly after the Special Meeting.
    Alpine Woods Capital Investors, LLC, the Fund’s investment adviser, will bear all of the expenses associated with the Special Meeting, including, among other things, legal fees for the preparation and filing of the proxy materials, the mailing of proxy materials and other solicitation expenses.
    Effective June 22, 2017, the Fund will no longer sell shares to new investors or existing shareholders, including through exchanges into the Fund from other Alpine mutual funds. Shareholders may exchange their Fund shares for shares of the same class of any other fund in the Alpine family without redemption fees as described in the Fund’s Prospectus.
    Shareholders of the Fund who redeem their shares prior to the completion of the liquidation will be redeemed in the ordinary course at the Fund’s net asset value per share. Each shareholder who remains in the Fund will receive a liquidating distribution equal to the aggregate net asset value of the shares of the Fund that such shareholder then holds.
    Shareholders should consult with their tax adviser about any tax consequence as a result of the liquidation.
    This supplement does not constitute a solicitation of any vote or approval. Any such solicitation will be made by a proxy statement containing important information about the Fund and the liquidation, which investors are urged to read carefully in its entirety when it becomes available. When available, the proxy statement and any other relevant documents will be accessible, free of charge, on the SEC’s website at www.sec.gov, or by calling 1-888-785-5578.
    Please retain this Supplement for future reference.
  • Gundlach Says Flatter Treasury Yield Curve Could Become A Concern
    FYI: The U.S. Treasury yield curve flattening could become a concern for economic growth when two-year and three-year Treasury note yields are about the same, and the price per barrel of WTI crude oil falls into the $30-dollar range, said Jeffrey Gundlach, chief executive at DoubleLine Capital, on Wednesday.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-funds-doubleline-idUSKBN19C2I8
  • Credit Suisse Emerging Markets Equity Fund's delayed liquidation
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/946110/000110465917040561/a17-15532_1497.htm
    497 1 a17-15532_1497.htm DEFINITIVE MATERIALS
    Supplement to the Statutory Prospectus, Summary Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information
    CREDIT SUISSE EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY FUND
    The following information supersedes certain information in the fund's Statutory Prospectus, Summary Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information.
    On June 7, 2017, the Board of Trustees (the "Board") of Credit Suisse Opportunity Funds (the "Trust") approved a Plan of Liquidation, Dissolution and Termination (the "Plan") for Credit Suisse Emerging Markets Equity Fund (the "Fund"), a series of the Trust, whereby the assets of the Fund would be liquidated and the Fund subsequently dissolved.
    IN LIGHT OF THE BOARD'S DECISION, SHARES OF THE FUND ARE NO LONGER BEING OFFERED EFFECTIVE JUNE 8, 2017.
    The liquidation of the Fund, originally scheduled for June 23, 2017, has been delayed due to a delay in the repatriation of cash associated with one of the Fund's emerging markets positions. The Fund expects such cash repatriation to be delayed by up to several weeks and the Fund's liquidation will be delayed until the cash is received. In anticipation of the previously scheduled liquidation date of June 23, 2017, the Fund's portfolio has been converted to cash and shareholders can continue to redeem their shares at net asset value on any business day at any time prior to the Fund's expected future liquidation date. Any shareholder remaining in the Fund as of the new liquidation date will be entitled to receive a distribution in an amount equal to the net asset value of his/her shares as of such date. Each shareholder may also receive unpaid income dividends and capital gain distributions. The liquidation of the Fund is expected to have tax consequences for a shareholder. Shareholders of the Fund should consider consulting with their tax advisers to determine any tax consequences and may wish to redeem their Fund shares prior to such liquidation date. A previous notice describing the Plan and the liquidation and dissolution of the Fund was mailed to shareholders.
    Dated: June 21, 2017
    16-0617
    for
    CS-PRO
    EME-SUMPRO
    2017-002
  • Abby Joseph Cohen: Fixed Income Headed For Trouble
    I kinda DON'T like AJC BECAUSE she is an equity perma-bull. I mean, personally, I am sure she is a lovely person, and very articulate. But what is the value of a broken clock in helping you ascertain the time of day? What is the value of investment advice if the person is always 'cautiously optimistic'?
    As for the risk in bonds. Sure, bonds are expensive. They are in part expensive by intent (i.e. monetary policy). But I would posit the CBs of the world are intent to prevent a nasty, sudden increase in rates, if they can. But what if they can't, you ask? Well, bondholders will suffer. But in any hypothetical disorderly bond swoon, I would be shocked if equityholders didn't suffer more than bondholders. After all, bonds both compete with equities for investors' dollars and interest rates (bonds) represent a cost of capital for corporations. Raise the cost of debt capital and residual returns of companies (i.e. earnings) go down.
    So while AJC believes bonds are riskier than investors think, --and maybe she is right as I cannot psychoanalyze the collective investor mind --- bonds are still much less risky than equities.

    I like Abby Cohen a lot. A regular on Rukeyser's old show. But if you're not aware, Abby is a perma-bull. Can't ever recall her being negative on equities. FWIW
  • OSTIX, PONDX, PTIAX or ?
    With a 2-year time horizon I would go with Pimco Income and if you have $25,000 to invest, I would open a Brokerage Account at Vanguard to purchase institutional shares (PIMIX). There is a 34 basis point difference in the expense ratio between PONDX and PIMIX.
    I would use Vanguard, but I invest for the long term. Over two years, after taxes, this would save someone about eighty bucks. Not chickenfeed, but not a king's ransom either. Depends on how much you value your time and effort. (I'll walk an extra 1/2 mile to save 25 cents on a bottle of soda - but I also benefit from the exercise - the 25c is just an added bonus.)
    Increased yield: $25K x 0.34% x 2 years x 75% = $127.50 (25% tax bracket)
    Increased cost: $35 to buy, $20 to sell = $55 x 85% = $46.75 (15% tax savings on reduced cap gains)
    Net after tax gain by using Vanguard: $80.75
  • How Much Should You Save For Retirement?
    Districtwanderer:
    A couple things. I think your impulse to “cap” your contributions, and squirrel away surplus savings elsewhere is WISE. Employer plans are “captive” with the plan administrator and often limit your options.
    You mentioned investing in rentals. I’ve not the ‘skill-set’ or interest to invest in real-estate directly. However, for those who do – meaning you invest sweat-equity along with your cash – I believe it can be very lucrative. A caveat: investing in real estate directly is like opening your business (real estate rentals IS a business!) So really acquaint yourselves with common problems – so you can avoid them. You may wish to consider joining a real-estate mentoring group to get a taste of what the possible pitfalls (and opportunities) are out there. A local group in my area is “lifestyles unlimited”, though I am certain there are many other such groups.
    Even if you choose to NOT go the rental-investment route, I think it make sense to have tax-diversification for one’s savings if possible. That means have some in tax-deferred vehicles (401k, IRA), some in tax-free (Roth) and some in taxable. Taxable accounts, while taxable, have advantages:
    - The Feds don’t penalize you for removing monies from taxable accounts. So, unlike IRAs and qualified plans, you are free to do with your money what you will, without “Uncle” putting roadblocks in your way. And for anyone with a moderate-or-higher amount of assets, it’s prudent to ‘self-custody’ some portion of one’s assets (IMO).
    - Uncle Sam is agreeable to subsidizing investment losses which you realize (when the Bear returns) in taxable accounts. Not so in deferred accounts.
    - I believe too, that there may be estate-planning considerations, especially involving trusts, which may make it attractive to have some of your assets outside a qualified plan. Estate-planning issues seem trivial at age 30; but as one gets older, they will grow in importance (assuming one has amassed a large estate).
    - As you approach/enter retirement, (again, a long ways away for you) having monies in a taxable account (meaning you have already paid the taxes for all realized gains) provides one with ‘optionality’ of timing, as to when/where you will draw down your deferred accounts (which will be FULLY TAXABLE at the then-prevailing tax rate).
    WOW! – Am running way long. But, bottom line, I think it’s a good idea to balance qualified-plan contributions with savings in taxable accounts. JMO. Good luck.
  • How Much Should You Save For Retirement?
    "we started at 25, and have obviously benefited from perhaps the greatest bull market we will see in our lifetimes."
    Might well be. It's already the second longest (in case you measure greatness by age), and as of March is closing in on the second highest gain. Likely even greater in real terms since we've had low inflation for many years (though I haven't computed real gains).
    Graphic: Post WWII bull markets, duration and gain
    http://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/7HDT2/2/
    You'll find other sources that state the bull markets ran longer (see graphic below), but they tend to ignore "minor" intervening blips like the 19.90% S&P 500 drop from July to October 1990, or the Aug 1956 to Nov 1957 22% drop.
    image
    Using Monte Carlo, at least the tools that you've been referred to, would seem to ignore this not insignificant fact that we're in nearly uncharted territory. In addition to disregarding the run up in equities, they would also seem to discount the the 35 year bull market in bonds. A multi-decade bond run is not a singular event, but unique when one considers how fast/far bond prices have risen, or alternatively how much rates have fallen:image
    The tools don't address your question because they don't seem to allow for the setting of preconditions; verily they are built on the premise that performance in one time period is independent of what came before.
    Even if they did incorporate preconditions, there doesn't seem to be sufficient historical data to provide meaningful input for current conditions. The preceding eight years have been part of the same bull market. That's only happened twice before: 1998 when the 1990-2000 bull also hit the eight year mark, and 1999 when it hit its 9th birthday.
    Monte Carlo tools strike me as better suited to playing with hypothetical long range outcomes than ascertaining real world (context sensitive) possibilities.
    As to the question at hand, your guess is as good as mine. If you're looking long term, the rule of thumb is that there's no better time than now to invest, though in bonds I'd be more conservative. Best case for principal protection is that rates don't rise (currently 2.16% 10 year), and the risk isn't worth the 80 basis points over cash. Worst case, rates rise and you lose principal.
    Personally, I've never been fond of real estate as an investment. Historic returns have been lower than for US equities, though real estate could help meet your objective of diversification.
  • Fidelity Launches Funds That Can Make RMDs For Aging Baby Boomers
    My reaction was similar, though not as harsh.
    This is just a repackaging of Fidelity's managed payout funds, though you can't tell the players without a scorecard. Fidelity's original managed payout funds were designed as "pseudo annuities" that would exhaust their assets on their target dates. In contrast, some other managed payout funds, like VPGDX, are designed to provide a constant income stream indefinitely.
    Some of the Fidelity managed payout funds were rebranded and closed, e.g. Fidelity Managed Retirement 2020, FIRVX, was originally Fidelity Income Replacement 2038. I believe the difference in dates is because the former is about the time you turn 70.5 (but I'm not quite sure); the latter the date the fund is exhausted.
    Other Fidelity managed payout funds were rebranded as Simplicity RMD funds, e.g. Fidelity Simplicity RMD 2020, FIRWX, Fund was originally Fidelity Income Replacement 2040. These are the "new" funds that are now open.
    "They have an optional feature that automatically calculates and distributes an investor's RMD from the account."
    Bzzzt. Wong reporting (what else is new?). Here's Fidelity's PR page, saying (like the prospectus) that "The fund's investment objective is intended to support a payment strategy designed to be implemented through a shareholder's voluntary participation in a complementary systematic withdrawal plan" - not a feature of the fund itself. That is, just what BobC described that's available for any other fund.
    Though Fidelity offers such services (i.e. RMD calculations and automatic withdrawals), (a) they don't always get the calculations correct, and (b) other IRA custodians may not provide this service at all. Suffice to say, this comes from actual experience (helping a relative).
    The lesson: you're the one responsible for RMDs, regardless of the service you expect the custodian to provide. All that these Simplicity RMD funds do is provide glide paths that may or may not suit your RMD needs.
  • Investment Grade Bonds and Sectors at 11:30am
    The Fed is expected to raise short term rates and discuss the disposal/unwind of their bond holdings. Well, at least the short terms traders have their viewpoints as expressed in the percentage gains shown below. Tis still early in the day, and I will remain interested in price/yield movement in the coming days and weeks. NOTE: Retail sales have biggest drop in 16 months. The Fed folks have much to consider, eh?
    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-idUSKBN1951Q8?il=0
    IG bonds just below at 11:30am
    LQD +0.83%
    IEF +0.82%
    EDV +2.19%
    A view of sectors, with "bold" being interest rate sensitive or defensive in nature; generally, historically speaking.
    Sector Change % down / up
    Energy -0.75%
    Basic Materials +0.02%
    Industrials +0.10%
    Cyclical Cons. Goods ... -0.06%
    Non-Cyclical Cons. Goods +0.76%
    Financials -0.25%
    Healthcare +0.32%
    Technology +0.22%
    Telecommunications Serv +0.17%
    Utilities +0.45%
    Take care,
    Catch
  • The Financial Pain Equation
    Very generously...OT, and only because we don't have BS category on MFO.
    People do not live their investment lives over 100 years.
    People also don't notice "pain" unless portfolio goes down 20% because they are "told" not to.
    Then people start wondering - deers caught in headlights - while their 20% loss turns into 50% loss. Then they sell. And of course, not a single "expert" at that point will stick his neck out and say "don't sell". THEN, after the market returns back to the point where the correction started we get "investors are so stupid".
    First, investors need to define their own "success". Don't let someone do it for you.
    Second, a "successful" investor is one that does not lose money, as in permanent loss of capital.
    All 20 year olds can read this post or they can read the other. Just remember, you do what YOU think is right, else either I or some expert is going to laugh at you in 30 years either way. And I hope one does not need a "Buddha" to explain this.