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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • 10 Funds That Returned 50% Or More This Past Year
    @DavidV and @Old_Skeet actually impressive 3 year returns. Do you have a strategy to reallocate your out sized gains? This fund (I charted AOFIX) has out performed both mid-cap and small-cap growth indexes since it's most recent bottom starting around 2/12/2016. Do you see this continuing in the Small/Mid cap growth space?
    image
  • Loomis Sayles Value fund closes: LSVNX LSGIX
    See earlier post about liquidation:
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/41551/loomis-sayles-value-fund-to-liquidate
    Also from Loomis Sayles website:
    https://www.loomissayles.com/website/mutual-funds/Value-Fund
    7/25/18 In accordance with the provisions of the Plan of Liquidation approved by the Board of Trustees, the Fund paid pre-liquidation capital gain and ordinary income distributions on July 25, 2018. For more information, please refer to the “Daily NAVs/Distributions” section of the website. The remainder of Fund assets will be liquidated on August 30, 2018, as scheduled.
    6/8/2018 Effective June 8, 2018, the Fund will no longer accept investments from new investors. Effective August 15, 2018, the Fund will no longer accept investments from current shareholders. Effective August 30, 2018, the Fund will be liquidated.
  • JP Morgan To Unveil New Investing App With An Eye-Catching, Disruptive Price: Free
    I haven't (yet) tried Chase, though I have tried the other three majors, and have been rather underwhelmed. I've used them primarily to meet mins for other services (e.g. getting bonus cash back on BofA credit cards with my Merrill Edge account), so my demands on them are minimal, and yet they still manage to disappoint.
    Better luck with Chase. Try them out before moving much of anything there. At least that way if/when you don't like them you'll be able to liquidate and not incur an ACAT (transfer) fee. (FWIW Schwab charges $25 for a partial transfer; the $50 is only for a full transfer.)
    Chase already sells all the funds it offers without a transaction fee. While that does include Vanguard (Investor shares only) and Fidelity, for the most part it's a limited offering. Just 30 families, and no institutional shares - just retail NL shares or load-waved A shares. A link to the list of funds and families is below, as is a copy of the families they sell.
    I think that consolidating institutions is more important in making it easier for your wife than finding a place she can walk into. It's really not hard doing must stuff over the phone. Though you do get to the point where a death certificate needs to be mailed in.
    It'ss not a big deal to send the paperwork via certified mail. Even if beneficiaries walk in with the paperwork, they won't get the money immediately.
    Gary Pilgrim and Harold Baxter were both crooks. (Remember Christine?)
    https://www.sec.gov/news/press/2004-157.htm
    As was William J . Nasgovitz
    https://www.twincities.com/2008/01/29/heartland-advisors-agrees-to-3-5-million-settlement-of-sec-suit/
    Alliance Bernstein
    Allianz
    American Century
    American Funds (Capital Group)
    BlackRock
    Delaware
    Dreyfus
    Eaton Vance
    Federated
    Fidelity
    First Eagle
    Franklin Templeton
    Hartford
    Invesco
    Ivy
    John Hancock
    J.P. Morgan
    Legg Mason
    Lord Abbett
    MFS
    Natixis
    Nuveen
    Oppenheimer
    Pacific Life
    PIMCO
    Principal
    Putnam
    T.Rowe Price
    Transamerica
    Vanguard
    https://www.chase.com/content/dam/chase-ux/documents/personal/investments/jpm-mutual-fund-list-for-sdi.pdf
  • PRWCX disappoints today
    I understand a new TRP Capital Appreciation Income fund being discussed. Income (from higher allocation of bond and other instruments) is the primary focus similar to that of Vanguard's Wellesleye Income fund, VWIAX.
    TCAPX. Still pending. STILL!!!
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1689311/000168931117000021/canpta-may35.htm
  • PRWCX disappoints today

    Yes- though they postponed the release of the fund several months ago, citing 'market conditions' if I remember correctly.
    I understand a new TRP Capital Appreciation Income fund being discussed. Income (from higher allocation of bond and other instruments) is the primary focus similar to that of Vanguard's Wellesleye Income fund, VWIAX.
  • PRWCX disappoints today
    I understand a new TRP Capital Appreciation Income fund being discussed. Income (from higher allocation of bond and other instruments) is the primary focus similar to that of Vanguard's Wellesleye Income fund, VWIAX.
  • iofix
    There's a new (to me, anyway) fund "presentation," as the IOFIX guys call it, up on the site, dated July. Just about everything you ever wanted to know about it, all there in living color ...
    Here's a tidbit I'd forgotten: the holdings are almost entirely floating rate (95% in this report).
    The one thing I can't find is the current price to par of the holdings (M*'s 68.31 is at least five months stale, and my default position these days is not to trust any M* data without some sort of corroboration). There's a nice graph of purchase price to par on p. 16 of the IOFIX presentation, the average being 67.50, which imho is still pretty decent considering the AUM runup.
    P.S. Good info on the manager call, Junkster.
    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4146697-perfect-mutual-fund-volatile-times
    Thanks Andy. The crew at Garrison Point Capital have always been very detailed in their presentations. As you allude to, a wealth of information. Above is a link that I don’t believe has been previously posted here on their strategy. I thought Charles had a more thorough analysis. But what I like about this one is the analogy with the old geezer and his bankrupt railroad bonds and the discounted legacy non agencies IOFIX specializes in. Yes, I know, comparing apples to oranges but you get the drift.
    By the way, here is the analysis by Charles
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/2018/02/lightning-in-a-bottle-alphacentric-income-opportunities-fund-iofix-february-2018/
  • Why The Most Important Idea In Behavioral Decision-Making Is A Fallacy
    My question is: if investors do not weigh losses more heavily than gains (i.e. are averse to losses), then why do so many people here keep looking at Sortino ratios and maximum draw downs? Why don't we have maximum gain data as well?
    @msf - great question
    It might be (in studying potential downside) that people are seeking to rationalize the risks they take - in effect, to convince themselves that the risks are small compared to the gains they expect.
    We don’t have maximum gain data. How could you? :) But after a 10-year bull market most risk-asset numbers look rosey. By contrast, after a bear market where 40-50% losses were experienced, the reverse might be the case. People might need convincing that “The sun will come out tomorrow.”
    There’s a reason the play Annie is set in the Great Depression years. Here’s some well done clips from live stage. Gotta love it.
  • Why The Most Important Idea In Behavioral Decision-Making Is A Fallacy
    This thread is a followup to a bullpen post:
    https://mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/40777/is-loss-aversion-a-myth
    That post links to a column that in turn cites the paper that the Scientific American piece linked here is summarizing. How's that for circular references :-)
    That column argues that loss aversion is still real, though it suggests a refinement to the concept.
    My question is: if investors do not weigh losses more heavily than gains (i.e. are averse to losses), then why do so many people here keep looking at Sortino ratios and maximum draw downs? Why don't we have maximum gain data as well?
    That's not a joke. I'm as concerned when a fund I have performs way out of line with my expectations on the upside as when it underperforms.
    I owned a legacy fund that had originally been an income oriented sector fund that evolved into a respectable broad based large cap value fund. I had been considering selling it for a variety of reasons. What finally made me pull the trigger was one year when it wound up as the top performing LCV fund (can't verify, but M* says it was in the top 1%).
    The fund was so volatile that even with top quartile returns for the past 3, 5, and 10 years, it had a 1* rating. Yet the last straw for me was the upside risk.
    So, why all these biased metrics? Junk statistics, or do investors really care more about their risk of loss then their risk of gain?
  • Charles Schwab vs. Vanguard
    Perhaps I should be a little clearer about the ACH issue. Have you ever tried to link an outside account to a brokerage account and gotten a message along the lines of: "can only link to a bank account"? I have, but it's very rare.
    One wouldn't be able to link such an outside account to, say, Fidelity. Generally, though, there's no problem linking banks to Vanguard, or to Fidelity. I've even linked a Fidelity account to Vanguard.
    https://personal.vanguard.com/us/whatweoffer/accountservices/banking?lang=en
    When using Schwab bank as a transfer point to external accounts, you'll have to transfer brokerage money to the bank. It's just that since it's all internal at Schwab, that transfer is very easy and fast.
    The only thing special about Schwab's debit/ATM card vs. that at many brokerages (including TD Ameritrade) is that you get ATM rebates worldwide, not just in the US, and 0% foreign transaction fees. Most other cards (aside from Capital One) pass this charge through to you; Schwab absorbs it.
  • Serious Mutual Fund Returns: 40 Years Of Annual Returns: (FMAGX) - (SPECX) - (ACRNX)
    FYI: If you have any clients retiring today, and they’ve had money working for the past 40 years, large caps were their best bet. Ideally, large-cap growth.
    With all due respect to small-cap enthusiasts, high-yield fanatics or gold bugs, large caps have dominated a rollicking good ride from the late 1970s to today. These funds powered through good times and bad: sky-high inflation, bull markets, crashes and irrational exuberance. There were low points along the way, of course. That’s why we added both the best, and worst, annual performances for each fund, in addition to the 40-year annualized average.
    Spoiler alert, the worst year for each one was 2008, the year of the financial crisis. The best year for 11 of 20 of these funds was either 1979 or 1980. But before you get too envious of the days of disco, bear in mind that the 30-year mortgage rate reached 16% in 1980, according to numbers from FreddieMac.
    To be sure, a lot of funds aren’t eligible for this list. Any fund launched in the past 40 years obviously won’t be here, impressive gains notwithstanding. The biggest case in point: There are no ETFs on this list because they’re too new for our time frame in this analysis. The first ETFs made their appearance on the scene in the early 1990s.
    So which funds have posted the best performance for the past 40 years? Scroll through to see the top 20. All data is from Morningstar as of 12/31/2016.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://bic.financial-planning.com/slideshow/top-funds-for-the-past-40-years
    FMAGX annual return since inception, 2/5/63, is 16.04%
  • Here comes Vanguard’s global credit bond fund: News Scan Money Management Executive
    With today's lower expected return environment, potential for rising interest rates, inflationary pressures and increasing volatility, it is critical for investors to maintain a well-designed allocation to alternatives that can help their portfolios weather uncertain markets," said Matthew Bass, head of global product strategy and alternatives business development at AllianceBernstein.
    PRODUCTS
    Assetmark launches 12 new portfolios
    AssetMark announced 12 new portfolios coming to its platform, which the firm expects will drive higher returns.
    "Dimensional Fund Advisors' robust investment process addresses a growing advisor need for low-cost, tax-efficient strategies," said David McNatt, senior vice president of product management and development at AssetMark.
    The portfolios, known as AssetMark MarketDimensions, are aligned with six risk profiles to target investors in different life stages, says the firm.
    Global X introduces new ETF family
    Global X is releasing two new ETFs aimed at helping investors achieve a specific income level: the Global X TargetIncome 5 ETF (TFIV) and the Global X TargetIncome Plus 2 ETF (TFLT). They have expense ratios of 0.77% and 0.78%, respectively, according to Morningstar.
    The funds were developed by Wilshire Associates. "We've structured indexes that aim to target specific yield objectives while mitigating risks," Jason Schwarz, president of Wilshire Analytics and Wilshire Funds Management, said in a statement.
    TFIV will seek a 5% yield, net of fees, and TFLT will seek the current 10-year US Treasury note plus 2%, according to the firm, which expects the funds to pay distributions monthly.
    Innovator launches ETF with structured outcomes
    Innovator Capital Management listed the Innovator S&P 500 Defined Outcome ETF, which offers protection levels of 9%, 15% or 30% over a near one-year period, the firm said.
    "No other ETFs in the market today seek to offer investors defined exposures to the S&P 500, where the downside protection level, upside growth potential and outcome period can all be known, prior to investing," said Innovator CEO Bruce Bond.
  • The Closing Bell: Dow, S&P 500 Bounce Back As Investors Shake Off Turkish Tantrum
    More Sliced Turkey:
    ...to default on their debt obligations is one of the easiest ways in which the strong men defend their own positions, seemingly protect their peoples and show their independence from foreign influence.
    Events in Turkey in the days and weeks ahead will finally expose the nature of emerging market risks in jurisdictions where there is no strong protection from a constitution to protect either citizens or capital.
    Article by Russel Napier (through ZeroHedge):
    https://zerohedge.com/news/2018-08-13/russell-napier-turkey-will-be-largest-em-default-all-time
  • M*: Q&A With Ed Slott: Backdoor Roth IRA Conversions Alive and Well: Text & Video
    I'd been holding these in my back pocket (meant to post, hadn't gotten around to it):
    Ed Slott's column from a month ago:
    https://www.fa-mag.com/news/irs-finally-says-back-door-roth-s-are-ok-39697.html
    Yale Law and Policy Review, Spring 2017, Slam the Door: Why Congress Should End the Backdoor Roth IRA
    https://ylpr.yale.edu/inter_alia/slam-door-why-congress-should-end-backdoor-roth-ira
    Congress was aware at the time of the backdoor Roth IRA’s passage that it would not facilitate greater retirement savings, particularly for those households for which increasing savings is most critical. As Brookings Fellow Peter Orszag warned Congress in 2005, “[r]ather than bolstering retirement security among middle- and lower-earners, proposals to increase income and contribution limits would generate significant asset shifting and be of primary benefit to households who are already disproportionately well-prepared for retirement.”[31] Instead, the driving force behind the backdoor Roth IRA was the need to facilitate the extension of capital gains and dividends rate cuts.[32]
  • TCW Funds liquidates the TCW/Gargoyle Hedged Value Fund (I and N classes)
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1625654/000119312518248332/d583955d497.htm
    497 1 d583955d497.htm TCW GARGOYLE HEDGED VALUE FUND
    TCW Alternative Funds
    TCW/Gargoyle Hedged Value Fund – Class I and Class N
    Supplement dated August 14, 2018 to
    the Prospectus dated February 28, 2018 (the “Prospectus”)
    Disclosure relating to TCW/Gargoyle Hedged Value Fund
    The Board of Trustees of TCW Alternative Funds (the “Trust”) has approved a Plan of Liquidation for the TCW/Gargoyle Hedged Value Fund (the “Fund”), pursuant to which the Fund will be liquidated (the “Liquidation”) on or about September 27, 2018 (“Liquidation Date”). This date may be changed without notice at the discretion of the Trust’s officers.
    Suspension of Sales. Effective the close of business on August 14, 2018, the Fund will no longer sell shares to new investors or existing shareholders, including through exchanges into the Fund from other funds of the Trust.
    Mechanics. In connection with the Liquidation, any shares of the Fund outstanding on the Liquidation Date will be automatically redeemed as of the close of business on the Liquidation Date. The proceeds of any such redemption will be equal to the net asset value of such shares after the Fund has paid or provided for all of its charges, taxes, expenses and liabilities. The distribution to shareholders of these liquidation proceeds will occur as soon as practicable, and will be made to all shareholders of the Fund of record at the time of the Liquidation. Additionally, the Fund must declare and distribute to shareholders any realized capital gains and all net investment income no later than the final Liquidation distribution. TCW Investment Management Company LLC (“TIMCO”), investment advisor to the Fund, intends to distribute substantially all of the Fund’s net investment income and realized capital gains, if any, prior to the Liquidation. TIMCO will bear all expenses in connection with the Liquidation to the extent such expenses exceed the amount of the Fund’s normal and customary fees and expenses accrued by the Fund through the Liquidation Date, provided that such accrued amounts are first applied to pay for the Fund’s normal and customary fees and expenses.
    Other Alternatives. At any time prior to the Liquidation Date, shareholders of the Fund may redeem their shares of the Fund and receive the net asset value thereof, pursuant to the procedures set forth under “Selling Shares” of “Your Investment – Account Policies and Services” in the Prospectus. Shareholders may also exchange their Fund shares for shares of the same class of any other fund of the Trust, as described in and subject to any restrictions set forth under “Exchanging Shares” of “Your Investment – Account Policies and Services” in the Prospectus.
    U.S. Federal Income Tax Matters. For tax purposes, with respect to shares held in a taxable account, the automatic redemption of shares of the Fund on the Liquidation Date will generally be treated as any other redemption of shares (i.e., as a sale that may result in gain or loss for federal income tax purposes). Instead of waiting until the Liquidation Date, a shareholder may voluntarily redeem his or her shares prior to the Liquidation Date to the extent that the shareholder wishes to realize any such gains or losses prior thereto. See “Distributions and Taxes” in the Prospectus. Shareholders should consult their tax advisors regarding the tax treatment of the Liquidation.
    If you have any questions regarding the Liquidation, please contact the Trust at 1-866-858-4338.
    Please retain this Supplement with your Prospectus for future reference.
  • The Closing Bell: Dow, S&P 500 Bounce Back As Investors Shake Off Turkish Tantrum
    FYI: U.S. stocks halted a multiday tumble Tuesday, with the three main equity benchmarks advancing as Turkey’s currency slide abated, allowing investors to focus instead on a healthy domestic economy and strong corporate results. All 11 S&P Sectors were in the green with XLY up .97%.
    The session, however, has been marked by seasonally light volume which can make benchmarks prone to volatile intraday moves, market participants said.
    Regards,
    Ted
    Bloomberg:
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-13/asian-stocks-set-for-mixed-open-dollar-holds-gain-markets-wrap
    Reuters:
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks/wall-st-gains-on-earnings-recovery-in-bank-stocks-idUSKBN1KZ19R
    IBD:
    https://www.investors.com/market-trend/stock-market-today/stocks-today-walgreens-mcdonalds-lead-dow-jones/
    MarketWatch:
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-look-set-to-pop-higher-as-global-markets-try-to-shake-off-turkish-tantrum-2018-08-14/print
    CNBC:
    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/14/us-markets-investors-shake-off-turkeys-economic-crisis.html
    Bonds:
    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/14/us-bonds-and-fixed-income-auction-data-and-turkey-crisis-in-focus.html
    Currencies:
    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/14/forex-euro-in-focus-as-lira-emerging-market-currencies-seen-vulnerab.html
    Oil:
    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/14/oil-markets-saudi-cuts-output-but-looming-demand-slowdown-drags.html
    Gold:
    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/14/gold-markets-focus-on-dollar-after-currency-touches-13-month-high.html
    WSJ: Markets At A Glance:
    http://markets.wsj.com/us
    SPDR's Sector Tracker:
    http://www.sectorspdr.com/sectorspdr/tools/sector-tracker
    SPDR's Bloomberg Sector Performance Pie Chart:
    https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/sectors
    Current Futures: Positive
    https://finviz.com/futures.ashx
    Quote
  • Einhorn's Greenlight Cuts Back Many Top Holdings, Slices Apple: Fund Down 19% Through July
    FYI: Billionaire investor David Einhorn, whose Greenlight Capital is posting some of the hedge fund industry’s worst returns, cut back several long-term holdings, including Apple Inc (AAPL.O), Voya Financial Inc (VOYA.N) and Consol Energy Inc (CEIX.N), a filing made on Tuesday shows.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-investments-funds/einhorns-greenlight-cuts-back-many-top-holdings-slices-apple-idUSKBN1KZ1K3
  • Case for staying invested in bonds
    I've become rather disenchanted with bonds and consequently find the paper's arguments less than persuasive. In part because I question why, at least for long term investors, volatility should even matter. Long term a pure stock portfolio wins out; even over "just" a decade, stocks win out around 80% of the time.
    In part, because bonds have done worse than the graphic suggests. A common complaint with the US aggregate bond index is that it is heavily weighted toward federal bonds. They have significantly less risk. In 2008 "Lower-risk Treasury-backed debt whipped most fixed-income categories, while company-issued bonds and more daring overseas debt suffered a similarly grim fate as stocks."
    This is not to suggest that bonds have near the risk of stocks, simply that the numbers don't tell the full story.
    If you're investing for income, then you're investing behind the "efficient frontier", which is okay. But I'm more interested in total earnings, whether that comes from coupons or dividends or capital gains.
    I do agree that bonds can serve a very useful role if you "must meet an expense at a particular time in the future. " For that, see bond immunization. The simplest form of immunization is just buying a zero bond that matures when you need the money. No reinvestment risk, and bond (as opposed to cash) rate of return.
    In one sense, absence of reinvestment risk makes zeros less risky than coupon bonds. Sure there's the risk that rates will rise and you'll be stuck with your low YTM zero. However, coupon bonds have a similar risk - you're still stuck with the bond paying low coupons. That is somewhat mitigated by the fact that you are getting cash out (interest payments) that you can reinvest at a higher rate, if rates rise. But if rates fall instead of rise, you lose because you reinvest those interest payments at lower rates. That's the reinvestment risk.
    Regarding not knowing markup: at least for munis, there's EMMA. Enter a CUSIP in the search box here, and you get not only real time trades, but information about the type of trade (inter-dealer, customer buy, customer sell), that let's you estimate markups in real time as well. Different markups by different dealers.
  • Vanguard Warns Of Worsening Odds For The Economy And Markets
    >> To be clear, Vanguard isn’t predicting a recession; it is merely saying that the odds of one have risen. ... “You could also say the chance of a recession not occurring by the end of 2020 are 60 to 70 percent,” ....
    Yawn. Be prepared. Etc. Okay, sure.