Which great mutual fund that's closed, will be opening because of money outflows? Copy of GP email that I received yesterday:
March 11, 2020
Dear Fellow Shareholders,
In light of the COVID-19 outbreak and resultant market turbulence, we are reaching out to share our current plan of action. While we cannot predict the outcome of the current volatility, we do know that market corrections have historically rewarded long-term investors who are able to maintain a steady hand. We recognize the current pain being experienced by market participants, but we strongly believe that our thoughtful, active approach in the face of volatility is what sets us apart. Our research team is using this time to increase communication with our companies, conduct other forms of due diligence and modeling of our companies, comb through our watch lists, and do additional screenings of our investment universe. We are using this environment as an opportunity to meaningfully upgrade the quality of Grandeur Peak portfolios.
We have been impressed with the confidence that our fellow shareholders have had in us, as demonstrated by very limited redemptions. We share your confidence and have recently invested more of the firm’s balance sheet into the funds. As you may have seen in a press release earlier this week, due to the sell-off, we announced the upcoming launch of the US Stalwarts Fund on March 19. A few of our funds will be moving from hard to soft close, allowing investors the opportunity to buy in this period of market weakness (clients in those specific funds will receive separate communication detailing the changes). Please check www.grandeurpeakglobal.com for the most current fund status.
Finally, we are taking the health of our team and business very seriously. As a firm, we have suspended all business travel and are converting scheduled meetings with companies and clients to calls or video conferences. We have asked that any employee who has traveled to a Level 2, 3, or 4 country in the last 14 days to self-quarantine. We are also insisting that any employee who has a fever, flu or cold symptoms, or if any family member has symptoms, that the employee stay at home for the duration of the illness and 24 hours after.
Every one of our employees is set up to work remotely, and we are very used to doing so. We have a thorough business continuity plan that is continuously evaluated and regularly tested. As a lengthier test, all Grandeur Peak employees will be working from home on March 16 and 17. These days, and those leading up to them, are an opportunity for our team to gain 100% confidence in our ability to work off-site for an extended period of time if necessary.
Thank you for being an investor in the Grandeur Peak Funds. If you have any questions, do not hesitate to reach out to our team.
Best Regards,
Mark Siddoway, CFA, CAIA, MBA
Todd Matheny, CAIA
Amy Johnson, MBA, CFP®
AAA longer duration bonds a bit better, U.S.T. issues, March 20, Friday PM close, watching..... @catch22-
@davidmoran just
posted a link to a
current NYT article. Seems that you're not the only one wondering what's happening. Here's an excerpt:
Wednesday was an unsettling day on global financial markets, and not just because the stock market fell sharply enough to bring a decade-plus bull market to an end.
Underneath the headline numbers were a series of movements that don’t really make sense when lined up against one another. They amount to signs — not definitive, but worrying — that something is breaking down in the workings of the financial system, even if it’s not totally clear what that is just yet.
Bond prices and stock prices were moving together, not in opposite directions as they usually do. On a day when major economic disruptions resulting from the coronavirus pandemic appeared to become likelier — which might be expected to make typical market safe havens more popular — many of them fell instead. That included bonds of all sorts and gold.
And there were reports from trading desks that many assets that are normally liquid — easy to buy and sell — were freezing up, with securities not trading widely. This was true of the bonds issued by municipalities and major corporations but, more curiously, also of Treasury bonds, normally the bedrock of the global financial system.
People, it is fair to say, are worried about bond market liquidity.
Chart advisor -bear market Everything red today, no where to run even tgd funds
/Bear market
Logo
Chart Advisor | Focus on the Price
By Gordon Scott, CMT
Wednesday, March 11, 2020
1. Volatility pricing at foreboding levels
2. Some target funds look ugly right now
3. A remote portfolio
Market Moves
Stocks fell to their lowest close of the year so far and fell by a larger amount than any other day this year (besides Monday). Today's roughly five percent drop has only been bested a handful of times in the last decade on any of the major market indexes. State Street's S&P 500 index ETF (SPY), and Invesco's Nasdaq-100 ETF (QQQ) have both hit this mark no more than five times. Perhaps that's why stocks staged a sucker's rally yesterday, since each previous time it did so was near a short-term swing low. However, this time it might be different.
That's because almost none of the previous occurrences coincided with the kind of pricing shown today in the options of the CBOE's Volatility Index (VIX). The chart below gives a visual representation of the pricing of options on the VIX. Based on the pricing, these ranges represent just over a one-standard-deviation range of probability for each given expiry. What stands out is that the pricing of all of these ranges puts them above 30 for the next six months. Option market makers are basically saying they think that the market is going to remain crazy and generally trend lower for the foreseeable future. The fact that the Dow Jones Industrial Index (DJX) slipped into bear market territory only confirmed what they fear.
There is one other possibility, and that is that these prices are simply overdone, the market correction is over, and all will soon return to normal. Seems like a slim chance. More specifically a fifteen percent chance of avoiding a bear market. At least that's the way options were priced today at the close.
Image
Some Target Funds Look Ugly Right Now
If you hate the idea of having to watch charts and look at stocks, you're probably not reading this right now. That simply says you aren't like most people. Most people would rather set their retirement choices up once and walk away and forget them. That's why target funds were invented. You pick a fund that matches your planned-for retirement year (or thereabouts) and simply put all your eggs in that basket. The fund will diversify for you and change that diversification over time.
The chart below shows how a comparison of two such funds (from Vanguard) and compares them with a couple bond-heavy funds. Younger individuals using such a fund and targeting retirement in 2050 probably won't want to look at their portfolio today. It has likely dropped about 15 percent in value over the past two weeks. Retirement hopefuls targeting five years out have had to endure significantly less volatility, but even these kinds of funds have dropped about ten percent recently. By comparison, funds that are 80 percent or even 100 percent composed of bonds are up for the year. That likely sounds attractive, but if you think about the way the bond prices collapsed over the past three days, such funds may have more volatility than desired in the days ahead.
That's why looking at these funds over the course of a full year can help. It's true the drop lately has been precipitous, but over the past year, the 2050 fund has only lost 3.9% and the 2025 fund is nearly unchanged. These amounts can easily be compensated for in any subsequent upward trend of the stock market./
AAA longer duration bonds a bit better, U.S.T. issues, March 20, Friday PM close, watching..... The below article link, written late today, expresses some reasoning as to yield increases today. Nothing really defined to me; and I will monitor for other writes about this subject that may offer definitive reasoning or examples.
ARTICLE
Morningstar: the most resilient international stock funds Morningstar today ran an analysis of which funds have the best downside capture ratio during the current panic, which they date as 2/19 - 3/9/2020.
Slightly surprising:
Best: Matthews Asia Growth & Income (MACSX), 69.5%
2. First Eagle Overseas (SGOVX), 70.7%
3. Matthews India (MINDX), 71.4%
4. FPA International Value (FPIVX), 71.6%
5. Matthews Asia Dividend (MAPIX), 74.1%
One almost would have suspected that being at the heart of the storm - i.e., Asia - would have sunk the Matthews folks. Nope.
Best US equity funds?
Royce Special Equity (RYSEX), 63.5%
Yacktman Focused (YAFFX), 69.7%
Yacktman (YACKX), 71.6%
First Eagle US Value (FEVAX), 77.0%
FMI Common Stock (FMMIX), 77.4%
Royce. Hmmm. A lot of cash in the portfolio and an averse to leveraged (i.e., debt ridden) companies helps. The others keep cropped up on our "best of" screens.
As ever,
David
T. Rowe Price Institutional Africa & Middle East Fund to liquidate https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/852254/000174177320000504/c497.htm497 1 c497.htm IAM STICKER
T. Rowe Price Institutional Africa & Middle East Fund
Supplement to Prospectus and Summary Prospectus Dated March 1,
2020At a Board meeting held on March 9,
2020, the fund’s Board of Directors approved the closure and liquidation of the fund. The closure and liquidation are expected to occur on May 8,
2020 (“Liquidation Date”). Prior to the Liquidation Date, the assets of the fund will be liquidated at the discretion of the fund’s portfolio management and the fund will cease to pursue its investment objective. In anticipation of the closure and liquidation, effective April 27,
2020, the fund will be closed to new investors or existing shareholders to purchase Fund shares. At any time prior to the termination, we welcome you to exchange your shares of the fund for the same class of shares of another T. Rowe Price fund. After the fund is closed and liquidated, the fund will no longer be offered to shareholders for purchase.
The date of this supplement is March 11,
2020.
E171-041 3/11/20
Dodge and Cox D&C have good funds but many of them are riskier and it shows at market stress such as 2008 and many times when stocks go down at least 10%. This is why when volatility increases, such as the last 3 years, their funds lag.
I have never owned their funds because I found better choices.
DODBX-->I used to own PRWCX. In the last 3-5 years, DODBX ranks in its category at 90 and 50. 90 means it's in the bottom 10%. JABAX is much better too.
DODIX-->is probably their best fund but I still owned PIMIX for several years, I know, it's not the same category. DODIX is really Multi sector light and why yesterday it lost -1% while most core plus did better.
DODGX--->SP500(VFIAX/VFINX) has better performance for 5-10-15 years. This is PorVis(
link) for 15 years that shows that SP500 had better performance, SD, Sortino.
DODFX has a negative performance for 3-5 years and ranks in its category at 77,78 which is pretty bad. Very easy to find better funds such as AFCNX.
D&C funds have low expenses which is nice but only one part of the puzzle.
While I agree performance is only one piece of the puzzle, it's not reasonable to compare a value shop like D&C (DODFX) to a growth shop like AC (AFCNX). Growth has been a major tailwind for folks like American Century, WCM, etc.
funds that are holding up in bad markets, thriving in good I'm always curious to learn and, in particular, learn about who's managing well across different environments since those strike me as candidates for long term holdings (though certainly not sure things). I ran a quick screen at Morningstar looking for funds that have top 15% returns over the past month (through 3/9/2020) and over the past three years as well.
Here's the code: fund / category / 4 week percentile rank / 36 month percentile rank / 36 month APR. In each category I took the fund with the lowest combined rank: a fund in the 1st percentile and 4th percentile would beat out a fund in the 5th percentile and 1st percentile (total 5 versus total 6). With more time, I would have done something more sophisticated.
Columbia Thermostat / 15-30% equity / 3 / 2 / 7.2%.
Madison Conservative Allocation / 30-50% equity / 1 / 9 / 5.3%.
Walden Balanced / 50-85% equity / 9 / 3 / 6.5%
PIMCO Stocks Plus Long Duration / 85%+ equity / 1 / 1/ 20%
ATAC Rotation / tactical allocation / 1 / 2/ 10.8%
Voya Global Perspectives / world allocation / 7 / 2 / 5.6%
iShares Edge MSCI Minimum Volatility USA / large blend / 4 / 1/ 10.9%
Akre Focus / large growth / 1 / 3 / 18.5%
BMO Low Volatility Equity / large value / 1 / 1 / 7.3%
ABR Dynamic Blend Equity & Volatility / long-short equity / 1 / 1/ 10.5%. Ummm ... up 20% in the past four weeks?
Infinity Q Diversified Alpha / multi-alternative / 1 / 2 / 7.7%
Government Street Mid-Cap / midcap blend / 5 / 2/ 6.6%
T Rowe Price New Horizons / midcap growth / 1 / 2 / 18.2%
Virtus KAR Mid-Cap Growth / midcap growth / 2 / 1 / 21.2%
Jensen Quality Value / midcap value / 3 / 2 / 4.0%. A sad reflection on the state of value investing
Calvert Small-Cap / small blend / 5 / 3 / 3.3%
Wasatch Ultra Growth / small growth / 5 / 2 / 21.3%
Camelot Excalibur Small Cap / small value / 1 / 5 / -0.4%. Eeek.
The ABR fund invests in the S&P500, VIX futures and cash. In low vol markets, it increases equity and in high vol markets, it increases exposure to the VIX. Expensive but it's sort of worked.
Akre is amazing. New Horizons, likewise. Columbia Thermostat keeps cropping up. Government Street Mid-Cap is tiny but excellent. The Virtus KAR folks are mostly closed, mostly really good.
Just some thoughts on what's been working a bit.
David
Dodge and Cox "This is why when volatility increases, such as the last 3 years, their funds lag."
Volatility decreased for DODFX and in foreign markets.
Std dev Jan 2014 - Jan 2017DODFX: 14.81%
EFV: 12.97% (iShares MSCI EAFE Value, used as proxy for foreign large cap value market)
VEU: 12.58% (Vanguard FTSE All-World, ex-US, used as proxy for foreign market)
Std dev Jan 2017 - Jan 2020DODFX: 14.13%
EFV: 12.12%
VEU: 11.80%
Dodge and Cox D&C have good funds but many of them are riskier and it shows at market stress such as 2008 and many times when stocks go down at least 10%. This is why when volatility increases, such as the last 3 years, their funds lag.
I have never owned their funds because I found better choices.
DODBX-->I used to own PRWCX. In the last 3-5 years, DODBX ranks in its category at 90 and 50. 90 means it's in the bottom 10%. JABAX is much better too.
DODIX-->is probably their best fund but I still owned PIMIX for several years, I know, it's not the same category. DODIX is really Multi sector light and why yesterday it lost -1% while most core plus did better.
DODGX--->SP500(VFIAX/VFINX) has better performance for 5-10-15 years. This is PorVis(
link) for 15 years that shows that SP500 had better performance, SD, Sortino.
DODFX has a negative performance for 3-5 years and ranks in its category at 77,78 which is pretty bad. Very easy to find better funds such as AFCNX.
D&C funds have low expenses which is nice but only one part of the puzzle.