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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Dodge and Cox
    D&C have good funds but many of them are riskier and it shows at market stress such as 2008 and many times when stocks go down at least 10%. This is why when volatility increases, such as the last 3 years, their funds lag.
    I have never owned their funds because I found better choices.
    DODBX-->I used to own PRWCX. In the last 3-5 years, DODBX ranks in its category at 90 and 50. 90 means it's in the bottom 10%. JABAX is much better too.
    DODIX-->is probably their best fund but I still owned PIMIX for several years, I know, it's not the same category. DODIX is really Multi sector light and why yesterday it lost -1% while most core plus did better.
    DODGX--->SP500(VFIAX/VFINX) has better performance for 5-10-15 years. This is PorVis(link) for 15 years that shows that SP500 had better performance, SD, Sortino.
    DODFX has a negative performance for 3-5 years and ranks in its category at 77,78 which is pretty bad. Very easy to find better funds such as AFCNX.
    D&C funds have low expenses which is nice but only one part of the puzzle.
    While I agree performance is only one piece of the puzzle, it's not reasonable to compare a value shop like D&C (DODFX) to a growth shop like AC (AFCNX). Growth has been a major tailwind for folks like American Century, WCM, etc.
  • funds that are holding up in bad markets, thriving in good
    I'm always curious to learn and, in particular, learn about who's managing well across different environments since those strike me as candidates for long term holdings (though certainly not sure things). I ran a quick screen at Morningstar looking for funds that have top 15% returns over the past month (through 3/9/2020) and over the past three years as well.
    Here's the code: fund / category / 4 week percentile rank / 36 month percentile rank / 36 month APR. In each category I took the fund with the lowest combined rank: a fund in the 1st percentile and 4th percentile would beat out a fund in the 5th percentile and 1st percentile (total 5 versus total 6). With more time, I would have done something more sophisticated.
    Columbia Thermostat / 15-30% equity / 3 / 2 / 7.2%.
    Madison Conservative Allocation / 30-50% equity / 1 / 9 / 5.3%.
    Walden Balanced / 50-85% equity / 9 / 3 / 6.5%
    PIMCO Stocks Plus Long Duration / 85%+ equity / 1 / 1/ 20%
    ATAC Rotation / tactical allocation / 1 / 2/ 10.8%
    Voya Global Perspectives / world allocation / 7 / 2 / 5.6%
    iShares Edge MSCI Minimum Volatility USA / large blend / 4 / 1/ 10.9%
    Akre Focus / large growth / 1 / 3 / 18.5%
    BMO Low Volatility Equity / large value / 1 / 1 / 7.3%
    ABR Dynamic Blend Equity & Volatility / long-short equity / 1 / 1/ 10.5%. Ummm ... up 20% in the past four weeks?
    Infinity Q Diversified Alpha / multi-alternative / 1 / 2 / 7.7%
    Government Street Mid-Cap / midcap blend / 5 / 2/ 6.6%
    T Rowe Price New Horizons / midcap growth / 1 / 2 / 18.2%
    Virtus KAR Mid-Cap Growth / midcap growth / 2 / 1 / 21.2%
    Jensen Quality Value / midcap value / 3 / 2 / 4.0%. A sad reflection on the state of value investing
    Calvert Small-Cap / small blend / 5 / 3 / 3.3%
    Wasatch Ultra Growth / small growth / 5 / 2 / 21.3%
    Camelot Excalibur Small Cap / small value / 1 / 5 / -0.4%. Eeek.
    The ABR fund invests in the S&P500, VIX futures and cash. In low vol markets, it increases equity and in high vol markets, it increases exposure to the VIX. Expensive but it's sort of worked.
    Akre is amazing. New Horizons, likewise. Columbia Thermostat keeps cropping up. Government Street Mid-Cap is tiny but excellent. The Virtus KAR folks are mostly closed, mostly really good.
    Just some thoughts on what's been working a bit.
    David
  • Dodge and Cox
    "This is why when volatility increases, such as the last 3 years, their funds lag."
    Volatility decreased for DODFX and in foreign markets.
    Std dev Jan 2014 - Jan 2017
    DODFX: 14.81%
    EFV: 12.97% (iShares MSCI EAFE Value, used as proxy for foreign large cap value market)
    VEU: 12.58% (Vanguard FTSE All-World, ex-US, used as proxy for foreign market)
    Std dev Jan 2017 - Jan 2020
    DODFX: 14.13%
    EFV: 12.12%
    VEU: 11.80%
  • Dodge and Cox
    D&C have good funds but many of them are riskier and it shows at market stress such as 2008 and many times when stocks go down at least 10%. This is why when volatility increases, such as the last 3 years, their funds lag.
    I have never owned their funds because I found better choices.
    DODBX-->I used to own PRWCX. In the last 3-5 years, DODBX ranks in its category at 90 and 50. 90 means it's in the bottom 10%. JABAX is much better too.
    DODIX-->is probably their best fund but I still owned PIMIX for several years, I know, it's not the same category. DODIX is really Multi sector light and why yesterday it lost -1% while most core plus did better.
    DODGX--->SP500(VFIAX/VFINX) has better performance for 5-10-15 years. This is PorVis(link) for 15 years that shows that SP500 had better performance, SD, Sortino.
    DODFX has a negative performance for 3-5 years and ranks in its category at 77,78 which is pretty bad. Very easy to find better funds such as AFCNX.
    D&C funds have low expenses which is nice but only one part of the puzzle.
  • Vanguard's VMVFX... not so Minimum
    @bee
    Volatility is opportunity.
    High volatility on the downside creates buying opportunities and high volatility on the upside create capital appreciation.
    It feels like VMVFX misses the mark on both counts.
    Volatility is not an opportunity for those with short-time horizons and low risk tolerance. While one could argue such investors should just be in bonds or cash, that is not practical for many investors seeking to achieve their investment/retirement goals. I feel like this fund largely does a good job of helping investors stay in the market even when times are rough. A lot of what volatility is depends on your perspective and individual psychology. Some people can't stomach it and the idea that one size fits all in this regard is not realistic.
  • Vanguard's VMVFX... not so Minimum
    Seems to me a minimum volatility fund should be positioned to deal with both upside (optimize positive volatility) and downside (minimize negative volatility). In a sense, I am referring to successfully positioning a fund to maximize "upside/downside capture".
    IMHO, when a fund is successful at capturing more of the upside (positive volatility) while limiting some of the downside (some of the selloff or negative volatility) you've "maximized" volatility.
    According to M* VMVFX has an upside capture of 65 (65/100th of the upside of the category) and a downside capture of 35 (35/100th of the downside of the category). These numbers are not much different than VWINX capture of 68% of upside and 37% of the downside. That is impressive under normal market conditions. Under stressful conditions the difference between the two (VMVFX vs VWINX) YTD looks like this:
    https://screencast.com/t/mdvS7utO
    @rforno Maybe these are not normal markets, but isn't that the point for owning such a fund? I don't want a fund like this to mimic the market during extremes (up or down)...well I am OK with extreme upside correlation...instead, I want a fund like this to position itself to maximize volatility.
    Volatility is opportunity.
    High volatility on the downside creates buying opportunities and high volatility on the upside create capital appreciation.
    It feels like VMVFX misses the mark on both counts.
    For what it's worth PRGSX has an upside capture of 116 while maintaining a downside capture of 53. Better volatility numbers in my opinion.
    Other note worthy "captures" (upside/downside):
    PRWCX - 119/79
    PRMTX - 123/66
  • Harvard Indirectly Holds Nearly $100,000 Worth of Stocks in Tobacco Companies
    https://www.thecrimson.com/article/2020/3/10/harvard-tobacco-stocks-divestment/
    Harvard Indirectly Holds Nearly $100,000 Worth of Stocks in Tobacco Companies
    The Harvard Management Company indirectly holds an estimated $98,265.08 worth of shares through exchange-traded funds which include tobacco companies, an industry Harvard divested from in 1990, according to The Crimson’s analysis of HMC’s public filings to the Federal Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Looking For The New Bottom
    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4330687-spy-looking-for-new-bottom
    SPY -Looking For The New Bottom
    Mar. 09, 2020 S&P 500 Trust ETF
    The SPY is smart about the novel coronavirus, COVID-19.
    However, its first attempt at discounting the economic impact just failed.
    When the news becomes worse than expected, the SPY drops to a lower bottom.
    Sunday, overnight futures dropped to 2,818 and the SPY is looking for a new bottom below $286.
    The next support level is at $277 and near the 50% retracement of the last move up to the last high. However, there are no supports in a falling market until price stops falling
  • BRUFX Bruce Fund
    @bee Still not actually IN VLAAX yet. It may never happen. The paperwork seems to have landed in the Twilight Zone. I'm researching alternatives. And at this point, we can afford to wait for the Market to recover. I must keep an eye on that old 403b, though. Lots of firms charge a fee just for holding your money, if you're not still an active employee. That one (VEIRX) is by now, down -17% YTD. BRUFX is, as Vintage Freak mentioned, "holding up well." VLAAX is still UP by a fraction for 2020. Cripes. I just love paying for other people's screw-ups.
  • the quants weigh in: "not yet"
    Blaine Rollins, founder of 361 Capital and former Big Dog at Janus:
    The moves are extreme but reflect the now-dual uncertainty of something that we have not seen since the Great Financial Crisis of 2008. Don’t expect this volatility to end anytime soon. COVID-19 cases are far from peaking in the U.S. The Fed is getting more limited in its market assistance options, and Washington D.C. is failing to inspire confidence. A “V” shaped bounce to all-time news highs will not be happening for the equity and risk asset markets this time around.
    But this also does not look like a 2008 GFC panic which led to a collapse in real estate valuations and an 80-90% decline in bank stock prices. (Investor Letter, 3/9/2020)
    "Getting worse but not 2008" currently passed for calm, thoughtful optimism.
  • Grandeur Peak US Stalwarts Fund to start accepting monies
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/915802/000139834420005579/fp0051767_497.htm
    497 1 fp0051767_497.htm
    FINANCIAL INVESTORS TRUST
    Grandeur Peak US Stalwarts Fund
    (the “Fund”)
    Supplement dated March 9, 2020 to The Fund’s Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information dated December 23, 2019
    Shares of the Fund will be offered for sale effective March 19, 2020.
    PLEASE RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT FOR FUTURE REFERENCE. YOU MAY DISCARD THIS SUPPLEMENT ONCE SHARES OF THE FUNDS ARE OFFERED FOR SALE.
  • How long it takes for savings Bond to Reach Its Face Value?
    Just like Social Security retirement age, the government has defined two different end points for savings bonds:
    SS: full retirement age (65-67 depending on date of birth)
    Savings Bonds: original maturity (20 years)
    SS: Maximum delayed retirement age, or something like that (70)
    Savings Bonds: final maturity (20 year original maturity plus 10 year extended maturity)
    For most purposes, it's these latter dates that matter. They determine when credits end:
    SS: Delayed retirement credits
    Savings Bonds: interest credits
    https://treasurydirect.gov/forms/savpdp0039.pdf
    Note: you are required to declare interest income from savings bonds when they reach final maturity, regardless of whether or not you redeem them. You can't shift income into the next year by, say, redeeming a savings bond in January 2021 that reaches final maturity in December 2020.
    So there's no advantage, or at least none I can think of, in holding a savings bond past its final maturity date.
    https://www.irs.gov/publications/p550#en_US_2018_publink10009904
  • 1.90% 30 yr UST.....change notice, 1.00% w/.54% on 10 yr UST; "Welcome to the Twilight Zone"
    Stay tuned: The UST 10 year breached .5% yield, to .49% and the UST 30 year breached the 1% yield to .97%.
    ARTICLE
    This is the time, for those with cable access; to be able to stay up all night if you choose, as CNBC and Bloomberg will likely drop the info-mercial times and be business programming x 24 hours.
  • SP-500 futures halted Sunday evening, after triggering down-limit circuit breaker rules
    The article below is fairly well written for a description of how the current rules function and the connection to last Friday's market activity. My recall is that the limits rules were changed or established after the October, 1987 "quick melt".
    ARTICLE
  • A look ahead for the overnight potentials in the markets......

    The Guardian is currently reporting that:
    The Australian share market is now down 6.5% on what is proving to be one of the most disastrous days for the ASX200 in recent history. The mounting concerns about a global recession caused by the virus have been compounded by the shock decision by Saudi Arabia to start an oil price war, sparking a 20% fall in the cost of benchmark Brent crude. Stocks in Japan, Korea and Hong Kong are also deep in the red.
    The above news item was excerpted from a current Guardian news report.
  • Got oil ??? Saudis plan all out price war with output increase

    Oil Prices Plunge 30% After Saudi Arabia Stuns World With Massive Discounts
    NPR is currently reporting that:
    Oil prices were in freefall on Sunday after Saudi Arabia announced a stunning discount in oil prices — of $6 to $8 per barrel — to its customers in Asia, the United States and Europe. Benchmark Brent crude oil futures dove 30% in early trading Sunday night before recovering somewhat to a drop of 22%.
    Saudi Arabia, the world's second-largest producer, this weekend also said it will actually boost oil production instead of cutting it to stem falling prices, in a stunning reversal in policy from just two days ago.
    U.S. consumers are likely to see lower prices at the gas pump, but American oil producers — who lead the world in output — could be hurt by the oil price slide.
    Economies from China to Italy have ground to a halt as quarantines shut down factories and demand for products and services craters.
    Saudi Arabia and other OPEC members sought to cut production to shore up oil prices. But the once-powerful cartel can no longer move markets alone. It needs the support of Russia, which is not an OPEC member but has recently been coordinating with the organization. Yet Russia has resisted calls for production cuts. On Friday, the talks ended in failure.
    Now, Saudi Arabia is doing an about face. If it can't get the price back up, it's going to drive the price way down. It's offering to cut the oil price for the U.S. market by $7 per barrel, to Europe by $8 and Asia by $6. Paired with Saudi Arabia's ability to rapidly increase production — flooding the market with cheap crude — those unilateral price cuts will push the price of oil down for everyone.
    And even with ample supply and low production costs, Saudi Arabia is not guaranteed to come out on top in a prolonged face-off with Russia – especially if fears of a pandemic keep planes grounded and cars in driveways no matter how cheap crude oil gets.
    This abridged news report was selected and edited for brevity.
  • COVID-19 and the portfolio
    Sunday, March 8, 2020
    Barring the possibility of an intergalactic species/craft which visits planet Earth, and creates a healing golden orb surrounding the planet; which in turn results in a eradication of COVID.....well, if this does not happen; then I can not find otherwise but to expect disruption at many levels to continue.
    I'll blip a few things as a thought arises, and then let this thread become whatever.....
    --- The investment side: The Fed. and other central banks have already played round 1 on the monetary side, for any number of reasons; based upon their thinking to attempt to protect the investment markets and other.
    Next, FISCAL policy. The President, et al; which includes most Republicans (my opinion) may be forced to become "socialists". The farmers bailout is already at this status, however; I see the following possibilities:
    --- another reduced taxes plan
    --- monetary back stop for some industries with large losses
    --- income replacement for those out of work for "x" period of time
    --- mail a U.S. Treasury check to every U.S. household.....$2,000, non-taxable at any government level
    All the other, the what IF:
    --- consider everything one uses in a given week in your area, what if; 25% of the stores, gas stations, etc. are closed
    --- the services you seldom use in a community, but now have 25% of the staff or facilities closed/quarantined, being; first responders (paramedics, fire, police), walk-in clinics; services, electrician, plumber, etc....add to your list
    ---employment, the majority of large gatherings being void people. Sporting events, localities that rely on tourism...add to your list. The ramifications in these areas becomes the large numbers of folks who have their income attached to these businesses.
    For the D.C. scene, well; you may be draw you own conclusions about effective leadership.
    Trump, "I know so much about corona virus.....
    Mike Pence stated that, "..... announced that 21 people on a cruise ship being held off San Francisco had tested positive for coronavirus. He also urged older Americans to “use caution” in planning any cruise ship vacation."
    NO S^*T ??? Well, one may guess that there are "x" number of Americans who don't know that a cruise ship vacation is not the way to go, at this time.
    Okay, I'm tired of writing and thinking about this; and you're probably tired of reading what I've written.
    Take care of you and yours,
    Catch
  • Got oil ??? Saudis plan all out price war with output increase
    For those holding oil investments.
    Another aspect of "disruption" relative to COVID-19.
    Note: one might expect a big ding to HY bonds related to U.S. energy companies.
    Disclosure: we've no direct holdings
    ARTICLE
    FINVIZ FUTURES