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You could try digging around on this government data site.Is there a case for that, that the outlook for corporate earnings is better now than in 2016?)
For sure corporations won't be buying back their shares this year with cheap borrowed money to jack up the price for executive compensation packages.Corporate profits rose ever so slightly in the fourth quarter of last year after three consecutive drops in the first part of 2019. Heading into 2020, analysts were optimistic that earnings would continue to rebound.
Then the coronavirus outbreak happened. And now, all bets are off.
Gonna be rough out there today.The 10-year Treasury yield jumped to 1.13% Wednesday after trading around 0.77% midday Tuesday before details of the potential stimulus emerged. It began the week at around 0.65%. It wasn’t the outright rate level that caused uneasiness among traders, but the rapid nature of the move overnight.
Emerging markets are trading on a Shiller P/E of 13x. This is the level of valuation that generally gets me excited. We have not experienced permanent impairment of capital from this level outside of markets that have shut down due to war. This doesn’t guarantee short-term returns or that we have reached a bottom: cheap stocks can always get cheaper. But it does provide a compellingly attractive entry point for those with a long horizon.
Even better are the value stocks within emerging markets, which trade on single-digit Shiller P/Es. So, embrace career risk, dare to be different, and recall the motto of the Special Air Service: Who Dares Wins.
© 2015 Mutual Fund Observer. All rights reserved.
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