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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • IOFIX - I guess it works until it doesn't
    M* (link) NAV vs PRice
    Example as of 3/23/2020...for one week...Price=+1.28...NAV=-0.51%
  • IOFIX - I guess it works until it doesn't
    Related, more or less to this investment area....... story link below.
    Invesco Mort. Cap. REIT, IVR , Down -43% today. Can not meet margin calls.
    Overview indicates a -82% from 52 week high.
    Disclosure: we don't have any horses in this area of racing.
  • Recapturing Portfolio Loss
    Experience tell me in order to fully recover the loss that would be time, recovery time that is. During 2008 drawdown, S&P500 index took over 4 years to full recovery the loss from peak to trough. Depending on your asset allocation, it may be shorter (hopefully not longer).
    At presence the sell-off is severe, i.e. the rate of decline is even steeper than 2008. There are days when the supposedly opposite asset classes such as bond vs. equity move in the same direction, which indicates panic selling to cash. So jumping to one ship on fire to another is not a viable option to recover the loss.
    If you follow Charles Bolin article on MFO, he is near retirement and his portfolio is constructed very conservatively with 20% equity. He should be doing quite well now considering S&P 500 index is down over 30% as of 3/20/2020.
  • IOFIX - I guess it works until it doesn't
    Thanks for sharing sma3.
    The “recent dislocation is one of the most rapid and severe we’ve seen—and this is all with the backdrop that there are no solvency concerns around the mortgage agencies, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, in contrast to the experience during the financial crisis,” Daniel Hyman and Ryan Murphy of Pimco wrote in a Sunday note.
    Tom Barrack, chairman and chief executive of Colony Capital (CLNY) ... called for regulators to suspend “mark to market” requirements for real-estate holdings to allow real-estate investors and operators to negotiate terms of new loans and payment schedules as the coronavirus slows (or halts) a lot of economic activity.
  • ? DSENX-DSEEX a little help please if you can
    I've sold TRBUX BBBMX NEAR MINT GSY and JPST at my brokerages to capture what gains I had. I'm looking at funds like SNGVX THIFX BSV SHV and BIL which have held up better.
  • Vanguard Capital Value Fund reorganization
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/836906/000168386320000717/f2615d1.htm
    497 1 f2615d1.htm CAPITAL VALUE FUND MERGER
    Vanguard Capital Value Fund
    Supplement Dated March 23, 2020, to the Prospectus and Summary Prospectus Dated January 31, 2020
    Reorganization of Vanguard Capital Value Fund into Vanguard Windsor™ Fund
    The Board of Trustees of Vanguard Malvern Funds (the Trust) has approved an agreement and plan of reorganization (the Agreement) whereby Vanguard Capital Value Fund, a series of the Trust, would be reorganized with and into Vanguard Windsor Fund, a series of Vanguard Windsor Funds.
    The reorganization will consolidate the assets of the Funds and allow Capital Value Fund shareholders to merge into a significantly larger fund with a similar investment objective, similar expenses, and the combined utilization of multiple investment advisors. We anticipate that the reorganization will eliminate duplicative expenses and spread fixed costs over a larger asset base of the combined fund.
    The reorganization does not require shareholder approval and is expected to close on or about July 24, 2020. Prior to the closing, shareholders of the Capital Value Fund will be issued a combined Information Statement/Prospectus, which will describe the reorganization, provide a description of the Windsor Fund, and include a comparison of the Funds.
    Under the Agreement and after the closing, shareholders of the Capital Value Fund will receive Investor Shares of the Windsor Fund in exchange for their Investor Shares of the Capital Value Fund, and the Capital Value Fund will cease operations. Following the reorganization, shareholders owning Investor Shares of the combined fund that meet the applicable eligibility requirements for AdmiralTM Shares of the combined fund may request a self-directed conversion to the lower-cost Admiral Shares at any time, and may be automatically converted to the lower-cost Admiral Shares upon Vanguard's review.
    We anticipate that the reorganization will qualify as a tax-free reorganization under the Internal Revenue Code of 1986, as amended.
    Closed to New Accounts
    Effective immediately, the Capital Value Fund is closed to new accounts, and it will stop accepting purchase requests from existing accounts shortly before the reorganization is scheduled to occur...
  • IOFIX - I guess it works until it doesn't
    This from Bloomberg:
    A crisis in credit markets deepened on Sunday as a cluster of funds that own mortgage bonds sought to sell billions in assets to meet investor redemptions, sparking pleas for government intervention.
    The sales included at least $1.25 billion of securities being listed by the AlphaCentric Income Opportunities Fund on Sunday, according to people with knowledge of the sales. It sought buyers for a swath of bonds backed primarily by private-label mortgages as it sought to raise cash, said the people, who asked not to be identified discussing the private offerings. The fund plunged 17% on Friday, bringing its total decline for the week to 31%.
    “The coronavirus has resulted in severe market dislocations and liquidity issues for most segments of the bond market,” AlphaCentric’s Jerry Szilagyi said in an emailed statement on Sunday. “The Fund is not immune to these dislocations” and “like many other funds, is moving expeditiously to address the unprecedented market conditions.”
    The best way to obtain favorable prices is to offer a wider range of securities for bid, Szilagyi said. He declined to discuss the amount of securities the fund put up for sale.
    image
    https://bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-23/mortgage-bond-sales-flood-market-amid-pleas-for-help-from-u-s
  • From the "We Have Your Backs" Department
    Mark - This article https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/20/us/politics/kelly-loeffler-richard-burr-insider-trading.html?searchResultPosition=1 refers to Sen. Feinstein's office stating that her investments are in a blind trust. (There's a link.) Not sure about a link from Sen. Loeffler. Both senators are married to wealthy investors.
    By Loeffler's own admission, her holdings are not in a blind trust. She is routinely told what she owns (independent of whether it is in a trust).
    I was informed of these purchases and sales on February 16, 2020 — three weeks after they were made.”
    She says that she is not involved in the trades made. That's effectively the same you as putting your holdings into a traditional discretionary account. "Not involved in the trades" says only that she is not the one making the trading decisions.
    The intelligence community provides the President raw data while not getting involved in policy decisions. Likewise, her statement allows for the possibility that she passed "secret" (non-public) information to her portfolio managers who were the only ones involved in making the "policy" (trade) decisions.
    This is also a concern about Feinstein's disclaimer. She too says that she was not involved in the trade decisions.
    "Ms. Feinstein’s office said her assets were in a blind trust and she was not involved in her husband’s financial decisions."
    IMHO one should assume that all statements are carefully crafted by lawyers and one should pay as much attention to what is not said as to what is stated.
  • From the "We Have Your Backs" Department
    Mark - This article https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/20/us/politics/kelly-loeffler-richard-burr-insider-trading.html?searchResultPosition=1 refers to Sen. Feinstein's office stating that her investments are in a blind trust. (There's a link.) Not sure about a link from Sen. Loeffler. Both senators are married to wealthy investors.
  • When to start buying
    @MikeW,
    As a subscriber to MFO Premium many of your questions can be found through the database collected and analyzed by our very own @Charles. The tools provide powerful insights to analyze mutual fund's performance and risk in terms of Ulcer Index, bear rating and other statistic parameters (Sharpe, Sortino and Martin ratios) over the lifespan of each mutual fund including the bear markets. For example, Vanguard Total Stock Market Index fund, VTSMX had a maximum drawdown of -50.9% during 2008. It took 52 months or 4.3 year to fully recover. The emerging market and developed market indeces have equally if not worse drawdown % and long recovery periods.
    There are few bright spots in the mutual fund universe and they are posted here as the Great Owl funds. In order to qualify as Great Owl funds, the funds are analyzed monthly using the above metrics. For example, T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation fund, PRCWX is an asset allocation fund with 70/30 stock/bond composition. In 2008, the maximum drawdown was -36.5% but the recovery period was 29 months while the annual return is higher by 1% higher from 2008 to Feb 2020. And there are a number of Great Owl funds where I can use to construct a solid portfolio. The subscription rate is $140/year and I am more than happy to pay 10X of that amount. Can you say the same for Morningstar?
    Charles Lynn Bolin who writes for MFO's monthly commentary as well as Seeking Alpha, utilized the database of MFO Premium as the basis for his informative articles.
  • IOFIX - I guess it works until it doesn't
    Yep, in a real meltdown like 2008 and 2020, correlation goes much higher. CEFs actually lost a lot more. Funds with extra risk such as NHMAX+IOFIX lost more than similar funds.
    In the above situation, treasuries do best. Remember Bogle 2 simple indexes SP500 + US Total bond index(which is not all treasuries but a good LT index)?
  • Old_Skeet's Market Barometer ... Spring & Summer Reporting ... and, My Positioning
    As of market close March 20th, according to the metrics of Old_Skeet's stock market barometer, the S&P 500 Index remains extremely oversold with a reading of 180+. This is on the high side of the barometer's scale. A higher barometer reading indicates there is more investment value in the Index over a lower reading. This past week, the weekly short volume average declined, a little, from 64% to 59% of the total volume for SPY. However, the VIX (which is a measure of volatility) went from a reading of 53 to 62. The stock Index's valuation lost ground during week moving from a reading of 2711 to 2305 for a decline of 15% and a decline of 32% off it's 52 week high. From a yield perspective, I'm finding that the US10YrT is now listed at 0.92% while at the beginning of the year it was listed at 1.92%. With the recent stock market swoon the S&P 500 Index is currently listed with a dividend yield of 2.53% while at the beginning of the year it was listed at 1.82%. As you can see there is a good yield advantage for the stock Index over the US Ten Year Treasury at this time. With this yield advantage, I'm favoring my equity income funds over my fixed income funds due to this yield spread and I feel equities have some good longterm upside potential more so than my fixed income funds. I also feel that the stock market is oversold and bonds are overbought but some bonds are now starting to become more attractive due to their selloff this past week. According to my advisor, and what they are seeing, the good stuff is getting sold to cover margin calls as those margined are short of cash. I would have thought most margin folks would have been gone by now.
    I thought I'd include with this weeks blurb a link to Morningstar's Market Fair Value Graph. It reflects that stocks in general are at about a 28% discount. https://www.morningstar.com/market-fair-value
    For the week, I was a buyer of equities at the 29% decline mark with also having bought earlier at the 8%, 13%, 19% & 27% decline marks. I most likely will continue to buy equities, at a slower pace though, as long as they remain in bear market territory; and, there is a fit for them within my asset allocation. However, my advisor/broker thinks I should limit my next two equity buys to the decline marks of 36% & 44% (if reached). In doing this would put my average equity buys at the 25% decline mark. For equities I'm still with buying in my equity income funds (IDIVX & INUTX) and in growth area in (KAUAX). In addition, the feeling is I should buy some on the income side of my portfolio since income has taken a beating of late. With this, I'm looking at real estate (FRINX) and muni's (FLAAX). In addition, I'm thinking of buying some more of CTFAX as it recently went from an equity allocation of 15% to 60% this past week. This asset move in of itself (by CTFAX) increased my overall equity exposure by better than 1% and reduced my income exposure by a like amount. My three best performing funds were PCOXX & TTOXX +0.01% ... IDIVX -0.99% ... and TSIAX -5.35%.
    With equities taking the beating that they have in this downdraft (and to play the eventual rebound) I am temporairly moving to a 15% cash, 40% income and 45% equity allocation. This will be done in steps, of course, and based upon stock market movement.
    In compairing myself against a 50/50 portfolio split between SPY (down -32.5%) & AGG (down
    -7.75%) puts the model portfolio off it's 52 week high by about 20% which is in line with some of my asset allocation funds and where I bubble as well. However, the 50/50 model has a yield of 2.25% while I'm at a yield of 3.75%. Now being retired, I'm invested more towards income generation more so than capital appreciation although that is important, to me, to offset inflation.
    My late father's asset allocation was 25% cash, 25% bonds, 25% stocks and 25% real estate. He felt that they would cycle at different times and while one might be falling another would most likely would be rising. But, that was way back then when you could make something off your cash. This asset allocation model would be off its 52 week high by about 16.6% with bonds and cash acting as stabelizers.
    Thanks for stopping by and reading.
    Take care ... and, I wish all ... "Good Investing."
    Old_Skeet
  • PIMCO on mortgage-based securities
    I posted this information also in the IOFIX thread but thought it might merit a thread of it's own. For those who are interested:
    If you would just like to see the PIMCO blog report: PIMCO's blog Insight Report
    For further discussion on mortgage backed securities you might want to give this M* community discussion a look.
    PIMCO says mortgage-backed securities are cheap
    Also a good discussion of what has been happening in mortgage bond land lately by Lou Barnes at Premier Mortgage Group:
    Mortgage Credit News March 20, 2020
  • IOFIX - I guess it works until it doesn't
    I had several hundred thousand in IOFIX but I sold most of it on Feb 28 and all on March 9. That was based on the fact that stocks are crashing + bonds don't behave rationally to rate drop + even treasuries didn't act on rates properly every day + thousands global coronavirus + VIX > 50. Let's call it what it is..a black swan.
    The market will turn and I will first look at the 2 funds I owned several weeks ago. NHMAX = HY Muni (includes leverage > 20%) + IOFIX. What comes down further usually goes up faster.
    Several months ago I talked to the manager of EIXIX and he explicitly mentioned that his holdings have a much lower risk than IOFIX and one day IOFIX will explode.
    The Pimco guys always say that MBS is the best place to be ;-)
    AGC has great articles about CEFs but you get a lot of info on fixed income...see this (article)
    "So what do you do at this point?
    Sitting still and doing nothing can be the hardest thing in the world but is likely the best course of action. Resist selling and even buying much of anything at this point. We need to see some stabilization before really buying anything further: 1) we need volatility (VIX) to peak and start to subside. 2) Oil prices need to stabilize. 3) We need to see new cases of COVID19 trend similar to China or South Korea with the second derivative trail off.
    Once these things happen, we believe that the market will bottom and start their recovery."
    As usual, I follow my chart/trends and they come directly from the price which is the end result of the opinions of all traders.
  • IOFIX - I guess it works until it doesn't
    Also a good discussion of what has been happening in mortgage bond land lately by Lou Barnes at Premier Mortgage Group:
    Mortgage Credit News March 20, 2020
  • IOFIX - I guess it works until it doesn't
    Alphacentric just released this letter. I'm not sure this relieves my concerns. It doesn't explain the steep drops:
    March 20, 2020
    Valued Investor,
    We appreciate your commitment in the AlphaCentric Income Opportunities Fund IOFIX | IOFCX | IOFAX, especially
    during periods of uncertainty and volatility. We believe the Fund is positioned well for this low mortgage rate
    environment.
    Markets have seen an enormous amount of cash being raised out of fear over COVID-19.
    The recent NAV decline in our Fund is largely technically driven. On the flip side, the large draw down in the
    corporate world, in both equities and bonds, can mostly be explained through deteriorating fundamentals (ex.
    massive drop in airline, hotel, restaurant, retail, travel revenues).
    While we are prepared for potential continued technical volatility, longer-term we are as confident as ever in the
    fundamentals of our portfolio and believe the current rate environment may accelerate upside returns for our
    Fund.
    Here are the underlying reasons:
    • Legacy mortgages originated back in 2002-2007, are 13-18 years old, why this is important:
    o These borrowers made it through the worst housing crisis ever in 2008/2009.
    o They have on average 43% equity in their homes today and have spent over a decade building
    this equity.
    o A good portion of their monthly payment today is on principal.
    • YTD mortgage rates have dropped around 17% to historical lows, why this is important:
    o Lower rates = increase in refinancing by homeowners and bond calls by service providers.
    o Many of the legacy bonds that we paid less than par for are now likely to be paid off at or near
    par.
    o The increase in refinancing and foreseeable bond calls sets the table for nice price appreciation
    over the next 12-18 months, in addition to the monthly income.
    o Average price of the homes in the portfolio is around $260k, this segment of the housing market
    continues to remain strong with low rates and a shortage of homes.
    • Unlike corporate debt, our bonds are backed by hard assets - homes with real equity and in many cases,
    the biggest asset a homeowner has.
    o 10 out of the last 11 recessions have had minimal impact on housing.
    o The Government provided many mortgage assistance programs to keep homeowners in their
    house during the last recession and now, more than ever, it is of the utmost importance for
    homeowners to stay put in their homes and away from others.
    o In many cases, homeowner's two largest expenses, mortgage and energy, just got reduced.
    o The Fund has no exposure to CLO's, CMBS, consumer credit, etc...just housing.
    This will not continue forever, and as always markets will eventually stabilize. We know that being an investor
    today, and during any period isn't exactly a stress-free experience, but we believe value investors should consider
    adding to this portfolio.
    Please let me know if you have any questions. If you would like to schedule a call with one of the portfolio
    managers, we are happy to schedule it.
    Thank you,
    AlphaCentric Advisors
    Garrison Point Capital LLC
  • IOFIX - I guess it works until it doesn't
    IOFIX was only at a little over 2% of my portfolio when the storm hit, so its not a major hit for me. I feel for those who were more concentrated in it. I am a chicken little when it comes to concentrating my portfolio into any one "specialty" holding even if I have respect for the managers....which I did (and do) with IOFIX.
    I saw a pretty interesting chart the other day comparing covid-19 with the Spanish flu in terms of market reaction. Nearly identical to this point. With the Spanish flu the market recovered rapidly and well before the virus subsided. If we follow the same pattern now is the time to buy. We may not follow the 2008 model, which was a financial crisis.
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/market-behavior-a-century-ago-suggests-the-worst-could-be-over-for-stocks-if-not-for-the-coronavirus-pandemic-2020-03-19
    Thanks for that chart @wxman123 . I, like many, am trying to figure out when to move in a substantial way to reenter the market of stocks. This history lesson from 1917 to 1918 is helpful in that regard. It suggests that at some point living with a pandemic becomes the new normal and gets priced into the market. So far I have been nibbling enough to keep the stock % in my portfolio from dropping significantly, but nothing more. I am currently inclined to wait at least until fall to see if there is a new surge in covid-19 cases then before moving back into stocks in a more substantial way.....assuming the initial surge peaks within the next several weeks. That will also provide time to get a sense for peoples willingness to restrict their interactions over an extended period of time as a vaccine is probably not going to be available any time soon.
  • IOFIX - I guess it works until it doesn't
    I saw a pretty interesting chart the other day comparing covid-19 with the Spanish flu in terms of market reaction. Nearly identical to this point. With the Spanish flu the market recovered rapidly and well before the virus subsided. If we follow the same pattern now is the time to buy. We may not follow the 2008 model, which was a financial crisis.
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/market-behavior-a-century-ago-suggests-the-worst-could-be-over-for-stocks-if-not-for-the-coronavirus-pandemic-2020-03-19