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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Massive Carnage In The CEF Space
    And I'm still failing to see your point. His client's can see the portfolios you refer to and can judge for themselves whether to stay or go. He's under no responsibility to share them publicly with non-paying interested parties such as yourself much like you or I.
    Hopefully we all formulate our portfolios in accordance with our own tolerance for expectations in line with the risk we're comfortable with taking. If I, or he and/or his clients failed to see this event coming we're in good company:
    Mohamed El-Erian: 'We Did Not Prepare for Something As Severe As What We’re Facing’
    Surely a drawdown seemed to be coming but I doubt that very few figured it to be this massive. Similarly, I would venture to guess that very few expected the unusually large gains seen in their portfolios in 2019. It works both ways. My point is that there's no reason to rub peoples faces in the mess on either side of the fence and that's how I read your post.
  • If you do this now, you might be able to double your retirement portfolio
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/if-you-do-this-now-you-might-be-able-to-double-your-retirement-portfolio-2020-03-23?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo
    /The counterintuitive investment call you probably did not expect
    The coronavirus crisis has created an extraordinary buying opportunity in emerging market stocks for anyone hoping to save for their retirement, say two independent investment houses./
    High risks high rewards situations. May work out long term, perhaps start a small position and watch closely.
    Symbols mentioned in article
    SPX
    -3.36%
    DEM
    -5.60%
    PXH
    -5.69%
    DVYE
    -5.87%
    QEMM
    -4.65%
  • Old_Skeet's Market Barometer ... Spring & Summer Reporting ... and, My Positioning
    As of market close March 27th, according to the metrics of Old_Skeet's stock market barometer, the S&P 500 Index remains extremely oversold with a reading of 175. This is on the high side of the barometer's scale. A higher barometer reading indicates there is more investment value in the Index over a lower reading.
    This past week, the weekly short volume average increased, a little, from 59% to 60% of the total volume for SPY. However, the VIX (which is a measure of volatility) declined from a reading of 62 to 54. This is good as the stock Index's valuation gained ground during week moving from a reading of 2305 to 2541 for a gain of 10.2% but has a decline of 25% from it's 52 week high. With this, the Index remains in bear market territory.
    From a yield perspective, I'm finding that the US10YrT is now listed at 0.68% while at the beginning of the year it was listed at 1.92%. With the recent stock market swoon the S&P 500 Index is currently listed with a dividend yield of 2.29% while at the beginning of the year it was listed at 1.82%. As you can see there is a good yield advantage for the stock Index over the US Ten Year Treasury at this time. With this yield advantage, I'm favoring my equity income funds on the equity side of my portfolio as I'm investing more for income generation more so than capital appreciation being retired. And, I feel my equity income funds presently offer me greater total return going forward, more so, than most of my bond funds.
    I also feel that the stock market is oversold; but, not so much for bonds. It seems bonds are just now starting to look more attractive due to the sell off some have received this past week due to liquidity factors. According to my advisor, with whom I speak with weekly, the good stuff is still getting sold to cover margin calls as those margined are short of cash. For some asset classes, that are thinly traded, there seems to have been a liquidity crunch which has created downward price pressure. This for some investors could mean opportunity. And, now that I have a near full asset allocation in equities I have now begun to shop on the income side of my portfolio. Some funds that are on the income side of my portfolio that I'm seeing value in along with opportunity are FLAAX ... FRINX ... and, JGIAX.
    My three best performing funds this week were all found in the growth area of my portfolio. They were LPEFX +16.51% ... PGUAX +14.04% ... and, AOFAX +12.87%.
    Thanks for stopping by and reading.
    Have a good week ... and, I hope all goes well for you.
    I am, Old_Skeet
  • Coronavirus Dividend Cuts and Suspensions
    Regarding Boeing, it's quite possible that the company is just using the virus as a cover for eliminating its dividend. Sure, it put on a brave face in January ("Boeing CEO says it will keep paying its dividend despite Max crisis").
    But it did that by choosing to stop 737 production (thus "saving" cash), rather than cutting its dividend and using the cash to keep its supply chain in place. Now with the virus Boeing has the perfect excuse for doing what it should have done in the first place, suspend its dividend.
    It had exhausted its credit lines. "According to AFP banking sources, the aircraft manufacturer drew on the full $14 billion credit line it only just secured from banks last month". It had negative shareholder equity (-$8.6B) at the end of 2019. It couldn't have sustained the facade much longer, virus or not.
    From The New Republic, December 23, 2019, Boeing Axes CEO as Company Hits New Heights of Self-Denial
    https://newrepublic.com/article/156092/boeing-axes-ceo-company-hits-new-heights-self-denial
    Literally everyone The New Republic has approached on the vexing question of why Boeing keeps coughing up dividends throughout this fiasco has said the same thing, using almost the exact same words: Boeing has been extremely effective at pacifying Wall Street. Throughout this nightmarish year, Boeing’s stock has remained rock steady and may yet end the year with a modest gain. “Investors”—“people” even—“rely” on those dividends. If Boeing slashes or suspends its dividend, it will send “shock waves” throughout Wall Street.
    From the NYTimes, December 16, 2019
    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/16/business/boeing-737-max.html
    At the very moment Boeing announced it was ceasing production of its most important product, the company took steps to meet Wall Street’s expectations. As it announced the shutdown on Monday, it sent a simultaneous news release announcing a regular quarterly dividend for shareholders.
  • Massive Carnage In The CEF Space
    I think you missed my main point. If you use his services he has 3 portfolios for you to select from, the funds/ETF/CEFs/whatever in each and all the trades he does. So yes, you do know his portfolios in detail.
    Going to cash with these portfolios and/or what other managers do? I doubt many do it because most managers don't have this flexibility, after all, you pay them to invest your money. Over the years I looked at many mutual funds and from memory, I remember Romick with FPACX at 30-40% cash and Eric Cinnamond in 2008-9 (can't remember the fund) was over 50% in cash.
    I don't know any fund that invests at any given time so much in cash.
    But, I can do what I want and it's the first time I ever sold everything. It was a great move I will remember for many years to come and probably saved me about 25-30%.
    I did sell in the past 20-40% but never that much.
    My situation has changed too, I'm retired now so protecting my capital is very important.
    So, maybe you should say good for you. I love when other investors are making money and making great moves.
    Since I'm flexible I can own any fund at any given time and since last week I'm mostly in HY munis. Why do you need to see my portfolio at all times? if you know my style (2-3 funds) and I said in January this year and several times after that I owned HY Munis and the 3 funds I like are NHMAX,ORNAX,OPTAX and the rest are in Multi and I mentioned IOFIX as the best one, you don't need to be rocket scientist to know that I probably own 2-3 funds out of these 4 funds.
    In the last 1-2 days, I also said that since last week I'm in again mostly in HY munis, which funds do think I have? really?
  • Fed Lifeline Shields Bond Funds Teetering on Brink of ETF ‘Hell’
    This contents of this article may be behind a firewall if you press on the link. The following excerpts provide a general sense for its contents:
    The Federal Reserve’s unprecedented step into U.S. corporate bonds helped cure many of the massive dislocations in exchange-traded funds -- and may have saved mutual funds from a similar fate.
    After prices for the biggest fixed-income funds held in a kind of dazed stillness during the worst of the sell-off -- presumably because the bonds they owned simply weren’t trading -- net-asset values on some of them dropped precipitously earlier in the week as their outflows forced sales on a frozen market.
    The steep declines were beginning to mirror prices reached in fixed-income ETFs, which were already trading at deep discounts to their underlying securities. Faced with $149 billion of redemptions so far in March -- after not seeing a monthly outflow since January 2019 -- mutual funds were forced to sell their holdings into a market caught in a cash crunch.
    However, the Fed’s pledge Monday to buy investment-grade credit and certain ETFs helped halt the slide in mutual fund net-asset values and sparked a rally in higher-rated debt. That’s largely due to the fact that fund managers now have a willing buyer on the other side of the trade, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.
    “Mutual funds dodged a big bullet by not having to unload bonds into a market with no buyers,” said Eric Balchunas, senior ETF analyst. “The Fed has now brought liquidity, and so they will get to avoid the ‘hell’ we saw ETFs in for the past month.”
    The pain had just started to spread to mutual funds, which were initially able to satisfy redemptions by burning through cash and their more liquid securities, according to Kingsview Wealth Management’s Paul Nolte. The net-asset values began to drop as the fund managers were forced to try and liquidate harder-to-unload holdings into a market with few buyers -- but the Fed announcement broke the cycle, he said.
    “They’ve stepped in, and we’re now finally starting to see a little bit more of a normal bidding process in the market,” said Nolte, a portfolio manager at Kingsview Wealth Management. “We’re probably a week away from a normally functioning market. It’s going to take some of these funds a while to work their way back to where they used to be.”
    https://bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-28/fed-lifeline-shields-bond-funds-teetering-on-brink-of-etf-hell
  • Coronavirus Dividend Cuts and Suspensions
    "In this article I discuss dividend cuts or suspensions resulting from the coronavirus and oil price wars. Currently I count 49 total companies that have cut the dividend since the end of February to March 27,2020. Please see the list at the bottom of the article. Most of the companies are in the travel, leisure, hospitality, restaurant, REITs, or energy sectors. The two most prominent dividend cuts to date are Occidental Petroleum (OXY) and Boeing (BA)."
    by Dividend Power
    In a related vein there is also this found snippet which I can neither confirm or deny from the latest issue of Barrons:
    "Pg 35: Many companies have cut or suspended dividends [MAR, F, JWN, BA] to conserve cash in anticipation of revenue and cash flow declines. But some financials, healthcare [CVS] and techs [INTC, TXN] may continue with their dividends – they may cut on buybacks and/or capex instead. [Companies that get bailout funds under CARES Act would have to suspend dividends and buybacks]."
  • AGG Up 8.4% This Week
    Usually, but not always. Index funds, especially bond index funds, are also managed, though perhaps not in the way you are thinking.
    A long narrative about nothing. We are talking about US tot bond index. The following 3 different funds from 3 different companies are very close. For 5 years as of 3-27-2020...BND(VG)+FXNAX(Fidelity)+AGG(Blackrock) performance is 3.36-3.37%.
    This is what you call investing based on an index and why they are so close.
    I didn't say ALL indexes in all cases, but, you knew all that.
  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    Isn't this bond crash just a misallocation of capital? In reality, those who bought into bond funds that crashed hard took on bad debt, the conduit being the fund itself.
    FD, several weeks ago, I commented on the investing principle of Taleb's or Bodie's black swan investing approach...85-90% of funds invested in the safest investment possible, the balance invested aggressively...I think that style has worked well and will continue to work well going forward. To the point you made then and for certain, one would have made greater gains over the past decade but then again the best gains can be made by compounding wealth, limiting drawdowns.
    Not sure that I would touch Muni bonds here...recognizing there are many different types of muni bonds, I can't see folks buying new cars going forward, don't see how muni's can raise property taxes, folks will just stop paying them, local shops are going to be slow to ramp back up if at all, can only write so many parking tickets...and is counting on the gov't to fund/backstop an investment really investing or is it smart to do so, meaning having the wind at your back, kind of like front running the POMO (published permanent open market operations) in prior QE programs?
    Good luck and good health to all,
    Baseball Fan
  • Stocks close sharply lower after massive 3-day rally fizzles out
    "Stocks ended sharply lower Friday, giving back some of the strong gains from the previous three days to cap another volatile week on Wall Street.
    Sentiment took a hit as investors focused back on the coronavirus outbreak as the U.S. became the country with the most confirmed cases.
    The Dow closed down 915 points, or 4%. The S&P 500 slid 3.3%, while the Nasdaq shed 3.8%."
    Article From CNBC
  • All Wasatch Funds are open except International Opportunities (unless directly from Wasatch)
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/806633/000119312520017093/d842170d485bpos.htm
    From the 1/31/2020 prospectus:
    Open/Closed Status of Funds. The Emerging India Fund, Emerging Markets Select Fund, Emerging Markets Small Cap Fund, Frontier Emerging Small Countries Fund, Global Opportunities Fund, Global Select Fund, Global Value Fund, International Select Fund, Micro Cap Fund, Micro Cap Value Fund, Small Cap Value Fund, Ultra Growth Fund, and U.S. Treasury Fund are each open to investors.
    The Core Growth Fund, International Growth Fund, International Opportunities Fund and Small Cap Growth Fund are each closed to new purchases, except purchases by new or existing shareholders purchasing directly from Wasatch Funds, existing shareholders purchasing through intermediaries, and current and future shareholders purchasing through financial advisors and retirement plans with an established position in the Fund. Fund officers may waive or revise the conditions of a closed fund for an intermediary depending on its ability to systematically apply the conditions .
  • When to start buying
    or jeez, you can feel hapless and then write about it shamelessly, like this reputable business writer and prof
    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/27/business/stock-market-pandemic-coronavirus.html
  • Massive Carnage In The CEF Space
    RiverNorth, whose strategy centers on CEF arbitrage as the key to their competitive advantage, posts the following "Cliff Notes" version of their recent conference call.
    The following provides a brief recap of the RiverNorth conference call held on March 19th.
    Capital markets and economic volatility/uncertainty has led to unprecedented volatility in the CEF markets
    RiverNorth estimates that 90%+ of the CEF market is owned by retail – and they are in full retreat
    Co-portfolio manager Steve O’Neill described some of the CEF price action last week as a “9.5 out of 10 on the CEF panic scale”
    Discounts hit (and in some cases exceeded) levels last seen during the Global Financial Crisis of 2008
    To keep investors appraised of the opportunity set, RiverNorth started posting discount data here: rivernorth.com/cef-discount-info
    The opportunity is broad based – nearly all CEF asset classes trading at historically wide discounts
  • Massive Carnage In The CEF Space
    Thanks Mark. Yes, I've seen the devastation there too. The Great Liquity Crisis of 2020. Something tells me things are going to change big time in the way CEFs, ETFs, and OEFs are priced. c
  • Infinite QE Is Destroying Traditional Bond-Fund Strategies
    Interesting reading. Themes include low interest rates for now, inflation possible down the road, cash is king, and lack of clear historical context for current situation.
    Core tenets such as what constitutes a safe asset, the value of bonds as a portfolio hedge, and expectations for returns over the next decade are all being reconsidered as governments and central banks strive to avert a global depression.
    QE Kills Valuation Models -- Ordinarily, the prospect of a multi-trillion-dollar government spending surge globally ought to send borrowing costs soaring. But central bank purchases are now reshaping rates markets -- emulating the Bank of Japan’s yield-curve control policy starting in 2016 -- and quashing these latest volatility spikes.
    Inflation Risk -- Many market veterans agree that faster inflation may return in a recovery awash with stimulus that central banks and governments may find tough to withdraw...“There’s tension in all of this,” said Hamish Pepper, fixed-income and currency strategist at Harbour Asset Management Ltd. in Wellington, New Zealand. “I don’t think it’s necessarily about waking up one morning realizing that bond yields should be 100 basis points higher from here -- but you have to think about inflation at some point.”
    Haven or Not? -- “Will government bonds play the same role in your portfolio going forward as they have in the past?” he said. “To me the answer is no they don’t -- I’d rather own cash.”
    “It’s very hard to look at this in a historical context and then apply an investment framework around it,” said BlackRock’s Thiel. “The most applicable period is right before America entered WW2, when you had gigantic stimulus to spur the war effort. I mean, Ford made bombers in WW2 and now they’re making ventilators in 2020.”
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/infinite-qe-destroying-traditional-bond-174459945.html
  • Edward P. Bousa of Wellington Fund to retire
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/105563/000168386320001038/f2772d1.htm
    497 1 f2772d1.htm WELLINGTON FUND 497
    Vanguard Wellington™ Fund
    Supplement Dated March 27, 2020 to the Prospectus and Summary Prospectus Dated March 27, 2020
    Important Change to Vanguard Wellington Fund
    Effective at the close of business on June 30, 2020, Edward P. Bousa will retire from Wellington Management Company LLP and will no longer serve as a portfolio manager for Vanguard Wellington Fund.
    Loren L. Moran, Daniel J. Pozen, and Michael E. Stack, who currently serve as portfolio managers with Mr. Bousa, will remain as portfolio managers of the Fund upon Mr. Bousa's retirement. The Fund's investment objective, strategies, and policies will remain unchanged.
  • RMB Mendon Financial Long/Short Fund to be reorganized
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/30126/000089418920002257/rmbmendonreorganization497.htm
    497 1 rmbmendonreorganization497.htm RMB MENDON 497E
    RMB Mendon Financial Long/Short Fund
    Class A Ticker RMBFX
    Class C Ticker RMBCX
    Class I Ticker RMBIX
    Supplement dated March 26, 2020 to the
    Statutory Prospectus and Summary Prospectus dated May 1, 2019
    IMPORTANT NOTICE REGARDING FUND REORGANIZATION
    At a special meeting of the Board of Trustees (the “Board”) of RMB Investors Trust (the “Trust”) held on March 25, 2020, RMB Capital Management, LLC (“RMB”) proposed, and the Board approved, the reorganization of the RMB Mendon Financial Long/Short Fund (the “Financial Long/Short Fund”), a series of the Trust, into the RMB Mendon Financial Services Fund (the “Financial Services Fund”), also a series of the Trust (the “Reorganization”) (each, a “Fund” and together, the “Funds”). In making its decision, the Board considered the recommendation of RMB, the Funds’ investment advisor, that the Reorganization has the potential to benefit shareholders of both Funds through increased efficiencies leading to lower Fund operating expenses borne by shareholders.
    Pursuant to an Agreement and Plan of Reorganization, the Financial Long/Short Fund will transfer all of its assets and liabilities to the Financial Services Fund and Class A, Class C and Class I shareholders of the Financial Long/Short Fund will receive the same class of shares of the Financial Services Fund that are equal in value to their shares of the Financial Long/Short Fund that they held immediately prior to the closing of the Reorganization (although the number of shares and the net asset value per share may be different). Upon receipt of the Financial Services Fund shares, the shares of the Financial Long/Short Fund will be null and void. Shareholders of the Financial Long/Short Fund will not pay any sales load, commission, or other similar fee in connection with the Financial Services Fund shares received in the Reorganization. Expenses associated with the Reorganization will be borne by the Funds to the extent of a Fund’s estimated operating expense reduction during the first year following completion of the Reorganization.
    It is currently anticipated that the Reorganization will be completed as of the close of business on or about June 12, 2020. It is also intended that the Reorganization will qualify as a tax-free reorganization under the Internal Revenue Code of 1986, as amended, which means that generally no gain or loss will be recognized for federal income tax purposes by the Financial Long/Short Fund or its shareholders as a direct result of the Reorganization. However, prior to completion of the Reorganization, the Financial Long/Short Fund may make net investment income and capital gains distributions to shareholders. Shareholders of the Financial Long/Short Fund should consult their tax advisors regarding the effect of the Reorganization and income and capital gains distributions on their particular tax situation.
    Shareholders of the Financial Long/Short Fund will receive an Information Statement/Prospectus that describes the Reorganization in greater detail, as well as important information about the Financial Services Fund. The Board determined that the Reorganization does not require approval by the Funds’ shareholders.
    Please retain this Supplement with the Statutory Prospectus and the
    Summary Prospectus.
  • The Fed Goes Nuclear
    Here are some possible next steps by the Fed. (Its sounding more and more like the low rate world will be with us at least until the crisis passes) --
    Potential Monetary Response
    • Forward guidance to signal FFR will remain at 0.00% well beyond the
    current crisis
    • Purchase short-term municipal bonds (six months or less to maturity)
    • Request authority from Congress to purchase a broader array of
    corporate and/or municipal bonds
    • Reinstate the Term Securities Lending Facility (TSLF)
    • Adopt a negative fed funds rate, though we view this as unlikely
    https://www08.wellsfargomedia.com/assets/pdf/commercial/insights/economics/policy-response-2020.pdf
  • Best websites for tracking portfolios?
    This is a problem I have struggled with as I am unwilling to give my passwords to Personal Capital or Yodele because of security concerns, or link my Vanguard accounts to Schwab or vice versa.
    I dont find Schwab portfolio analysis tools very helpful anyway.
    I continue to use Quicken ( have for decades) and it seems to work although it is clunky. However it will update the dividends buys and sells pretty easily pulling in data from the brokerage account. I do not keep my passwords in Quicken but paste them in when necessary, nor do I export my portfolio to their web service.
    I have set up my own system of asset classes and investment goals on Quicken and put each fund or stock in an appropriate class. Quicken has a link to Morningstar that will produce a portfolio xray report automatically ( although that seems to be down recently for some reason) that is helpful although it doesn't go into enough detail for me. For example it only has domestic and international equities bonds and cash and can't separate out anything else
    Quicken will export an excel tab delineated file easily and I import that into a watch list in Portfolio at Morningstar to get regular quotes. it takes a couple of minutes or less and is a lot easier than trying to update the share numbers dividends etc directly at Morningstar.
    I haven't had the problem with Morningstar web page crashing on a regular basis as is mentioned above.
    I used to use single shares to avoid giving Morningstar any information but I have so many watch lists there I don't think they could figure it out what is real and what is not
  • If today's gains hold up....
    If today's gains hold up, it will be our 3rd sharply higher day in a row, and we will be all the way up to Ghastly Horrible for the year!