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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • New Labor Department Guidance Takes Aim at ESG Investing
    I'm not disagreeing with you regarding the "ESG managers" part, but with the author's assertion that "Their environmental and social concerns less clearly reflect self-interest." I fundamentally disagree. The average employee age is irrelevant unless you believe this current generation is the last to invest in 401ks. The future of 401k investors is on the line. Actually, I am disagreeing with you somewhat because using a phrase like "ESG managers maintain..." casts doubt on the reality of the business risks climate change poses. The verb "maintain" suggests a weak lawyerly defensive argument by ESG managers as opposed to the scientific facts of the risks, which in 2020 are more couched in reality than any finance theory currently treated as gospel. The equivalent phrasing would be "Bill Cosby maintains his innocence."
  • The coronavirus has given investors a ‘once-in-a-lifetime opportunity,’ says hedge-fund billionaire

    Yes. To live or die. ;(((((( Sorry, cynical me couldn't resist that one.
    2020 has provided a trading market, that's for sure. I've done well in the areas I've actively traded in/out/around various positions ... while letting my long-term stuff just boringly creep higher, reinvest, and/or otherwise do their thing.
  • Why Own T-Bills?
    "Corporate bonds are now very liquid and may stay that way given the likelihood the Fed will again provide a buffer during the next crisis."
    So, why own T-Bills paying less than 1%?, asks Jon Seed, in another thoughtful piece.
    https://alphaarchitect.com/2020/07/09/do-treasuries-have-a-place-in-a-modern-portfolio/
  • The coronavirus has given investors a ‘once-in-a-lifetime opportunity,’ says hedge-fund billionaire
    Hi Sir Old_Skeet, you are exactly right.
    In my experiences, the first 100K 'balance' in our portfolio is so hard to get with all the market gains/401K div-redisbributions. The 2nd, 3rd 100K gained are easier than the first 100K [after 5-7 yrs or so].... So are the subsequent gained monies. You may have same feelings once reaching 1M [then 2M].. We did have a great bull run since 2009 when I first started investion. Think the rules for 7.5 years for doubling your total assets work well here [unless we have a massive recession/depression - contractions which we are facing right now]
    Couch potatoes and picking mutual funds that you like work well too if you have no time to fiddle around. Hard to time the market these days; we have to trust the managers that we hired to run our Mutual Funds or ETFs. Although stocks may appear cheap still these days. We may have Dows @ 35K by next few years - [12 months]; we did have NASDAQ at records highs recently [yesterday]
    fwiw
    regards
  • We're Forecasting a Strong Long-Run Economic Recovery
    https://www.morningstar.com/articles/989371/were-forecasting-a-strong-long-run-economic-recovery
    We're Forecasting a Strong Long-Run Economic Recovery
    We don't think the market's engaging in irrational exuberance.
    Preston Caldwell
    Jun 30, 2020
    The Morningstar US Market Index has come thundering back since its late March nadir and is now down merely 7% year to date, even as the coronavirus pandemic persists. While many investors are wondering if the market is exhibiting irrational exuberance, we think the rebound has been broadly warranted, as we forecast a strong long-run recovery in the U.S. economy. We expect U.S. GDP to drop 5.1% in 2020 but surge back in 2021 and experience further catch-up growth in following years. By 2024, we think U.S. GDP will recover to just 1% below our expectations before the pandemic.
  • The coronavirus has given investors a ‘once-in-a-lifetime opportunity,’ says hedge-fund billionaire
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-coronavirus-has-given-investors-a-once-in-a-lifetime-opportunity-says-hedge-fund-billionaire-2020-07-08?siteid=yhoof2
    The coronavirus has given investors a ‘once-in-a-lifetime opportunity,’ says hedge-fund billionaire
    /'The question is how long will it take to get back to normal?’
    ‘I know you’re not supposed to say this, but it’s a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. You’re not going to see this again: Where you’ve actually got an economy that’s fine, and you’ve got a Fed pumping trillions of dollars in.’/
    Maybe he is right...we maybe laughing our ways to the bank 3 yrs from now if keep buying since late March2020
  • Cash Is Trash; Choose Bond Funds Instead
    Cash Is Trash; Choose Bond Funds Instead
    https://www.google.com/amp/s/seekingalpha.com/amp/article/4357202-cash-is-trash-choose-bond-funds-instead
    Jul. 06, 2020 5:08 PM , PRRIX, PTTRX...8
    The average money market fund is now offering dividends of about 0.09%.
    Bond fund/ETFs dividends are quite low too but much higher as compared to money market funds.
    Since the Fed has as much as promised not to raise rates through 2022, there appears little chance of higher dividends for money market funds.
    But investors worried about stocks have poured cash into bond funds/ETFs raising NAVs; thus, especially on a total return basis, bonds appear to be a much better choice.
  • June MFO Ratings Posted
    This past Sunday, 5 July, all fund risk and return metrics, ratings, and analytics were uploaded to MFO Premium, reflecting performance through June 2020.
    You can read more about the update here.
  • This spot-on predictor of who will win the 2020 presidential election is not the stock market or eve
    Biden is leading from his basement home/headquarters and powerful online virtue rallies 52-39% in polls last months according to cnbc msnbc abc
    Many folks maybe overhyped thrilled enthused raved up regarding potential 8 more yrs of Obama*s wonderful policies.
    Right based Rasmussen has trump approvals at 47%
    I do think trump could be in troubles and biden may win it very close
    If economy takes off many folks returning to work, All bets are off and could be very cloudy predictions Nov 2020
  • Hey Buddy, Can you Vemo me a dime?
    Getting Closer to cashless:
    “We have a world in which there is less contact,” he said. “People’s habits are changing as we speak.”
    Those dynamics are creating a golden moment for credit card companies, banks and digital platforms, which are capitalizing on the crisis to advance the cashless revolution by encouraging consumers and retailers to use cards and smartphone apps that yield lucrative fees. In Britain alone, retailers paid 1.3 billion pounds (about $1.7 billion) in third-party fees in 2018, up £70 million from the year before, according to the British Retail Consortium.
    Payment and processing companies such as PayPal (whose stock is up about 55 percent this year) and Adyen, based in the Netherlands (up 72 percent), also stand to gain. So do data analytics and fraud prevention companies, and businesses that enable merchants to accept card payments.
    https://nytimes.com/2020/07/06/business/cashless-transactions.html
    Instead of handing out spare change you can now hand out Acorns:

  • This spot-on predictor of who will win the 2020 presidential election is not the stock market or eve
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-spot-on-predictor-of-who-will-win-the-2020-presidential-election-is-not-the-stock-market-or-even-opinion-polls-2020-07-07?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo
    This spot-on predictor of who will win the 2020 presidential election is not the stock market or even opinion polls
    Published: July 7, 2020 at 6:55 a.m. ET
    By Mark Hulbert
    /Does the stock market predict the winner of U.S. presidential elections? Many argue that it does, pointing to the historical correlation between the incumbent party retaining the White House and the stock market’s strength in the months leading up to Election Day in November./
  • Old_Skeet's Market Barometer ... Spring & Summer Reporting ... and, My Positioning
    I believe the barometer has a good value in accessing short term market movement which is difficult to achieve. Good work :-)
    In the last several years I find Tony Dwyer to be pretty good at forecasting short term market movements. Yesterday has said the following (link)
  • The Bubble
    The title caught my eye. This opinion piece provides several reasons to be alert. There are some good visuals. Here is some takeaway advice for traders and market timers (as well as for those like me who act more like buy and hold observers):
    Bottomline: We have an asset bubble in tech, dependent on unrealistic multiple expansions as Fed liquidity has prompted a chase in the supposed save havens creating the most divergent stock market in decades.
    Buy the dips, sell the rips and watch your back. The natural market is much lower in price and risk remains that the broader market is still in bear market rally mode. As it stands $SPX remains below the June highs, as does $DJIA, $RUT, $NYSE, $BKX, you know, the broader market altogether.
    https://northmantrader.com/2020/07/06/the-bubble/
  • Which TSP Fund Up 8.65% in 12 Months?
    The Fed is stuck between a rock and a hard spot. The only way to get rid of all this debt is to inflate our way out, but when that happens, the interest payments on the debt go thru the roof. Better hope the economy picks up, but if it does higher rates are inevitable, unless you believe Lacy Hunt that Government borrowing will crush the capital markets
  • Which TSP Fund Up 8.65% in 12 Months?
    Fund F = Barclays Capital U.S. Aggregate Bond Index.
    As expected it did its job as ballast to stocks.
    What is going to be its performance in the next 5 years? maybe 2-2.5% annually.
    I don't expect inflation to rise beyond Fed expectations. I have seen many predictions by experts to be off in over 10 years.
  • Which TSP Fund Up 8.65% in 12 Months?
    I agree that @carew888 did a nice job of quickly summarizing what the F fund is and why it performed the way it did. The only thing I'd add to that (I'm not a TSP participant, so please correct me if I'm mistaken), is that divs, cap gains, etc. are already incorporated into the share prices. This is in response to @dstone42's question.
    In this regard, the TSP funds resemble variable annuity portfolios. The TSP funds are not mutual funds and are not required to distribute their earnings in the form of dividends. "The net earnings are reflected in the share price of the funds."
    https://www.tsp.gov/InvestmentFunds/FundsOverview/earningsComponents.html
    I’d be loath to criticize the content, but neither is the financial insight / information equivalent to what you’d find on this board generally, or at any mainstream financial information-based service like the WSJ, Bloomberg, Barron’s, etc.
    I'm not so loathe :-). The FedSmith content includes:
    With the large spending stimulus in 2020, there is a possibility of inflation returning as a new reality. If that should occur, bonds could turn out to be a wise investment.
    Fidelity (and virtually any mainstream financial service) writes:
    Inflationary conditions generally lead to a higher interest rate environment. Therefore, inflation has the same effect as interest rates. When the inflation rate rises, the price of a bond tends to drop, because the bond may not be paying enough interest to stay ahead of inflation.
    https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/investment-products/fixed-income-bonds/bond-prices-rates-yields
  • Which TSP Fund Up 8.65% in 12 Months?
    I'm a federal retiree with a TSP account. The F fund is an index fund based on the Bloomberg Barclays Aggregate Bond Index. IIRC, the duration is around 4.5. The 8.65 1 year return reflects capital gains from falling interest rates, similar to the gains recorded by core bond funds/intermediate bond funds.
    +1
    FedSmith is an advertising-based publication directed at Federal employees and retirees from what I can make out. It reminds me a bit of the publications sent free of charge to me from organizations like AARP and NEA / MEA (related due to prior employment). I’d be loath to criticize the content of any of these. They mean well. But neither do they provide the depth of financial insight / information you’d find on this board generally, or at any mainstream financial information service like WSJ, Bloomberg, Barron’s, etc. That may be because FedSmith (and the ones I cited above) are aimed at a broader, less financially astute population.
    Excellent point about the declining interest rate trend we’ve grown accustomed to. If you’re under 50 you may not even remember previous decades of generally rising interest rates (assuming you can only remember such things back to when you were 20). Some of us who lived through and were investing during the 70s and 80s can assure you that what you’ve lived through is somewhat of an aberration as interest rates go. Rates can and do go in either direction - rising or falling. Someone here recently mentioned paying a 12 or 14% rate on a mortgage for a first time home.
    The fund referenced in the article sounds a lot like the T Rowe Price U S Bond Enhanced Index Fund (PBDIX) which I happen to own. As bond funds go, its fairly “safe” holding all / mostly investment grade bonds having short-intermediate maturities. But in a serious ramp-up of interest rates it would certainly lose money,
  • Which TSP Fund Up 8.65% in 12 Months?
    I'm a federal retiree with a TSP account. The F fund is an index fund based on the Bloomberg Barclays Aggregate Bond Index. IIRC, the duration is around 4.5. The 8.65 1 year return reflects capital gains from falling interest rates, similar to the gains recorded by core bond funds/intermediate bond funds.