Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Get Ready for the Return of Inflation Fed actions have increased...money...at a blistering rate
    Another read from Eric Basmajian on Inflation / Deflation Debate:
    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4340323-inflation-vs-deflation-tug-of-war
    The deflationary thesis holds more weight for three primary reasons.
    Weakening rates of population growth and excessive levels of unproductive debt are two long-term structural forces that have been working to undermine the rate of economic growth, widen the output gap, create excess capacity, and exert a general disinflationary force on the economy. Both of these forces will persist.
    Recessions exacerbate excess capacity. The current recession is one of the worst economic crises the country has ever faced. The rate of inflation nearly always declines during recessions and typically does not trough for years after the conclusion of the recession and the eventual reduction in excess capacity. A severe recession usually knocks several hundred basis points off the rate of core inflation, placing current measures firmly below the zero bound. The strength of the recovery will determine how persistent the deflation will be.
    While the Federal Reserve has engaged in a rapid expansion of its balance sheet and the monetary base, both the money multiplier and the velocity of money will work against the increase in money growth. Velocity tends to decline as debt levels rise. There's no reason to believe the velocity of money will rise significantly. In fact, most evidence points toward a very aggressive collapse in the velocity of money, a force that will continue to negate monetary policy actions as it has for the last several decades.
    and,
    ...various measures of inflation expectations reveal that the bond market is currently expecting deflation for at least the next three years and rates of inflation below 1.5% for more than 10 years.
    Difference Between Monetary Base and Money Supply:
    Often we conflate Federal Reserve "money printing" with an equal and consistent increase in the money supply. This is not the case.
    When the Federal Reserve buys an asset from the private sector, the Federal Reserve increases excess reserves, which represents an increase in the monetary base, not the money supply.
    https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2020/4/23/48075864-15876672613202152_origin.png
    High Level of Unproductive Debt:
    High levels of debt are often misunderstood. Commonly, we hear that debt levels are getting too high and that inflation will ensue. The data actually proves that higher levels of debt, particularly unproductive debt that does not generate an income stream, leads to deflation, not inflation.
    Unemployment Factors:
    In the prior two recessions, it took 47 months and 75 months, respectively, to regain the number of jobs that were lost. In this recession, the number of job losses will erase upwards of 20 million paychecks based on preliminary data from the report of the initial claims.
    On Assets to Hold:
    Gold can perform well during periods of inflation or periods of deflation. The direction of real rates tends to be a more critical factor. As such, my analysis suggests a combination of Treasury bonds, gold, and higher than normal levels of cash is the best way to move forward in the current environment.
  • Old_Skeet's Market Barometer ... Spring & Summer Reporting ... and, My Positioning
    Hi @bee. Thank you for your question. Have I ever considered using other funds and/or etf's as a benchmark? Yes, but I have not found a conserative asset allocation fund that generates the income stream that my master portfolio kicks off. And, besides being a former corporate credit manager I limit how much I will hold in any one fund. With this I spread it out over a number of positions.
    In addition, I use to be more active and engage spiff positions more often as a source of income generation via realized capital gains. Now, I hold a good slug of CTFAX (about a 5% weighting) and I let this fund do this automatically for me. Thus, this has reduced the number of times I have been an active investor with my use of spiffs. I've got a lot of moving parts within my portfolio ... perhaps, to many for some ... but, not to many for me.
    Again in review below is how I govern my portfolio as it does everything needed to meet my needs now in retirement. Why change now?
    Old_Skeet's All Weather Asset Allocation.
    My all weather asset allocation of 20% cash, 40% income and 40% equity affords me everything necessary to meet my needs now being in the distribution phase of investing. The benefit of this asset allocation is that it provides sufficient income, maximizes diversification, minimizes volatility, and provides long-term returns.
    The 20% held in cash area provides me ample cash should I need a cash draw over and above what my portfolio generates plus it can provide the capital necessary to fund a special investment position (spiff) should I choose to open one during a stock market pullback. In addition, cash helps stabilize a portfolio during stock market volatility. Example of investments held in this area are cash, money market mutual funds and CD's.
    The 40% held in the income area provides me ample income generation to meet my income needs in retirement. It is a well diversified area that incorporates a good number of income generating type funds. Some examples of investments held in this area are AZNAX, JGIAX & PONAX.
    The 40% held in the equity area provides me some dividend income along with some growth, that equities generally provide, that offsets the effects of inflation plus, over time. Some examples of investments held in this area are IDIVX, NEWFX & SPECX.
    My five largest positions are AMECX, CAIBX, CTFAX, ISFAX & FKINX. Two of these funds I have had positions in since my early teens AMECX & FKINX). I'm now 72+ years in age.
    Generally, for my income distributions, I take no more than a sum equal to what one half of my five year average total return has been. In this way principal grows over time.
    This works well for me and I have no plans to change the concept. I encourage others to develop something that works well for them and to stick with it even if is a two fund portfolio consisting of a stock index and a bond index fund. If this is what you want then why not use SFAAX? It's yield is too low for me at 1%.
  • Weitz Funds Fixed Income Insights: A Storm Of Opportunities
    https://www.gurufocus.com/news/1119224/weitz-funds-fixed-income-insights-a-storm-of-opportunities
    Weitz Funds Fixed Income Insights: A Storm Of Opportunities
    By Thomas D. Carney, CFA, and Nolan P. Anderson
    April 28, 2020 |
    /The analogies to describe the year's first quarter, particularly the month of March, could seemingly fill a book. The unfortunate human and economic drama that continues to unfold across the globe will certainly be forever etched on the world's collective memory. And while it's important to provide this update on the markets (as out of date as it may soon become in this rapidly changing environment), our hearts, minds and prayers remain with all of those who have suffered and are suffering the direct human effects of the coronavirus outbreak. It's also important to remember those who have suffered direct economic consequences resulting from the fight against the disease, including a historic number of job losses. Since the whole world is in this predicament together, hopefully the words from World Health Organization chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus will bring solace: that the “amazing spirit of human solidarity must become more infectious than the virus itself” and that “we can only succeed together./
    Anyone have WCPBX
    Any thoughts regarding bonds market and where we maybe heading from here?
  • Some of USAA's funds redesignated as "A" class
    Schwab sells Victory Class A funds NTF to its retail investors. It doesn't seem likely that it would turn around and charge the load only to its newly acquired USAA clients.
    Schwab bought USAA management for its client base, both 1.5 million current and 10 million potential. It wouldn't make any sense for Schwab to dissuade its larger potential audience by taking advantage of the USAA members already signed up.
    It's more likely that these clients would be sold the new Institutional class shares. From the new prospectus:
    The Institutional Shares are available for investment through a USAA discretionary managed account program and through certain advisory programs sponsored by financial intermediaries, such as brokerage firms, investment advisors, financial planners, third-party administrators, and insurance companies.
    From the April 23, 2020 Schwab Managed Account Services™ Disclosure Brochure:
    NTF funds used in the UMP [legacy USAA Managed Portfolios] Program include USAA Victory Mutual Funds, managed by Victory Capital, from which Schwab may also receive shareholder servicing fees.
    We've seen this sturm und drang before. When PIMCO did away with its D class shares, there was much handwringing about how investors would have to pay loads for PIMCO's A shares.
  • Mutual Fund Company Rant
    Outsource. Ya, they want your money. The DON'T want to do the work. Motherlovers. It's the name of the game in 2020.
  • Some of USAA's funds redesignated as "A" class
    From a previous rant:
    USAA recently "sold" their Investment division to Charles Schwab for $1.8 Billion. That's $1,800,000,000 in cash. USAA will transfer $90 Billion in assets to Schwab sometime in May 2020. I asked how individual investors (there are 1 million) will benefit from this sale. I am still waiting for that answer. This latest move may not mean anything for the orphan investors who are leaving USAA for Schwab. Doesn't look like individual account holders will receive any of this $1.8B as a "bonus" for this asset transfer. 
    The 1 million investors seem due some it not all of this windfall.
  • Some of USAA's funds redesignated as "A" class
    USAA recently sold its mutual funds to Victory and its management company (including its brokerage and managed accounts) to Schwab.
    The current (August 1, 2019) prospectus starts by saying that "The Adviser Shares listed in this prospectus are available for purchase generally through financial intermediaries by investors who seek advice from them." This is the share class that's being changed, not the retail, noload "Fund Shares" class of shares.
    The Fund Shares are cheaper because they don't have a 12b-1 fee, unlike the Adviser Shares. They are currently available NTF at Schwab. For example, here's Schwab's page for USTEX.
    Best guess is that this change is to better align the USAA funds with Victory's share classes. Victory Class A shares are also available NTF at Schwab, though they carry that 12b-1 fee. Here's Schwab's page for the Victory fund SRVEX.
    As near as I can tell, just move along, nothing here to see.
    FWIW, here's the new (June 29, 2020[sic]) prospectus. It adds the new class of Institutional Shares.
  • Semper MBS Total Return Fund In Doghouse
    It's so tempting to buy now IOFIX,VCFAX and especially EIXIX which I think is "safer" but I don't dare. These broken MBS might have a problem
    [and later ...]
    Corp bonds rated invested grade were down 13% from the top. Black swan is unknown ... Pimco top ones PCI, PDI lost 30-40%.

    The funds you look at do seem broken. As corporates and MBSs recovered, these funds continued going down. Which is why, as Baseball_Fan wrote, it's important to know what you own, not just what their "stats" are.
    Every once in awhile, a picture really is worth a thousand words.
    Here's a graph showing YTD curves for MBB (iShares MBS), PTRIX (Pimco MBS fund), VTC (Vanguard Total Corporate ETF), VCFAX, and SEMRX.
    All dipped to varying degrees, but the first three recovered and are positive on the year.
    VCFAX flattened and is down 13%; SEMRX continued to plunge and is down 22%.
    SEMMX is negative over 1, 3, and 5 years. (It has not been around for a decade yet.) Next to that, DODIX looks pretty good. A problem with putting too much faith in volatility figures over a generally quiescent period is that one is blinded to latent risks.
    These "black swan" events come almost like clockwork. 2020, 2009, 2000, 1987, 1974. Pandemic risk is unknown? That sounds like a politician.
    "Over the past quarter century, warnings have been clear and consistent from both US government leaders, scientists, and global health officials: A pandemic was coming—and whenever it arrived, it would be catastrophic to the global economy."
    https://www.wired.com/story/an-oral-history-of-the-pandemic-warnings-trump-ignored/
    politician? not really. As retiree that wants to make more without the volatility the numbers show it. If you don't understand how and what you do like most then just invest like most. Buy and Hold stocks and high rated bonds for ballast.
    You can see in 20 years black swan happened every 10 years.
    My thread was a proof of what I did, see (this)
    You can also see (this) and what I did, using trades.
    BTW, Today at 10 AM I sold all my stocks(all in QQQ) that I bought earlier in April and posted at M*. I'm not predicting it's the top, I sold sold because I made money the way I do by trading.
    But, you are not the first or last that tried to dismiss it :-) and it looks to me that every post I make you think it's your obligation to criticize.
  • Some of USAA's funds redesignated as "A" class
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/908695/000168386320007766/f5097d1.htm
    (see link to see table of affected funds)
    The Board of Trustees of USAA Mutual Funds Trust has approved redesignating each Fund's current Adviser Shares as "Class A" shares ("Redesignation"). This change is expected to be effective on or about June 29, 2020 ("Redesignation Date").
    The total annual operating expense ratio of the Class A shares of each Fund will be no greater than that of the Adviser Shares on a net basis as a result of the same expense limitation agreement currently in place with respect to the Adviser Shares through at least June 30, 2021. Like Adviser Shares, Class A shares will be available for purchase through financial intermediaries and each Fund will pay ongoing distribution and/or service (12b-1) fees at annual rate of up to 0.25% of the average daily net assets of its Class A shares.
    However, Class A shares will be offered and sold at their public offering price, which is the net asset value per share plus any applicable initial sales charge, also referred to as a "front-end sales load." For purchases on or after the Redesignation Date, Class A Shares will be offered and sold with the imposition of a maximum initial sales charge of up to (i) 5.75% of the offering price for equity funds and (ii) 2.00% of the offering price for fixed income funds. The sales charge may be waived or reduced under certain circumstances to be described in a revised prospectus to be furnished to shareholders upon the Redesignation. In addition, a contingent deferred sales charge of up to 0.75% may be imposed on redemptions of Class A shares purchased without an initial sales charge if shares are redeemed within 18 months of purchase.
    The Redesignation will be made without the imposition of any sales loads, fees, or other charges to Adviser Shares held in shareholder accounts on the Redesignation Date. Any future purchases of Class A shares of the Fund will be subject to a front-end sales load unless such purchase qualifies for a sales charge waiver or reduction to be described in the revised prospectus. The Redesignation will not be considered a taxable event for federal income tax purposes.
    PLEASE RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT FOR YOUR FUTURE REFERENCE.
    Victory Capital means Victory Capital Management Inc., the investment manager of the USAA Mutual Funds. USAA Mutual Funds are distributed by Victory Capital Advisers, Inc., a broker dealer registered with FINRA and an affiliate of Victory Capital. Victory Capital and its affiliates are not affiliated with United Services Automobile Association or its affiliates. USAA and the USAA logos are registered trademarks and the USAA Mutual Funds and USAA Investments logos are trademarks of United Services Automobile Association and are being used by Victory Capital and its affiliates under license.
    Here is the link for the new prospectus:
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/908695/000168386320007758/f4863d2.htm
  • When it comes to alloaction funds___
    @MikeM, I hold a good slug of it in my taxable account and a little slug in my self directed IRA. There are a couple of reasons that I'm holding off until CTFAX makes it June distribution. One, I feel as though I'd be buying the distribution as it, for the most part, has already been made through its investment activity. Two, I have a CD that matures towards the end of May that I will be using some of the CD money to make this purchase. And, three, I want to keep my cost basis in the fund as low as possible (return on invested capital). Some funds (owned for years) have paid out more than enough to cover my cost of buying them. I'm thinking that the June distribution will be a sizeable one. Possibly, double (or more than) what it normally makes. Skeet
  • Shell slashes dividend as earnings sink
    I expect that there will be more dividend payers who will do likewise. First cut in 80 years. "RDS.B Royal Dutch Shell Thursday cut its dividend for the first time since 1945, reducing it by 66% to 16 cents a share after first-quarter profit fell by nearly half. The company warned that the pandemic's impact would be more severe in the second quarter." (Emphasis mine)
    Shell slashes dividend as earnings sink
  • Get Ready for the Return of Inflation Fed actions have increased...money...at a blistering rate
    Getting back to inflation... this article worries more about deflation in the near term:
    The author:
    The mentality of inflation is tomorrow the price of a good will cost more so I will buy as much as I can of it today.
    Deflation is the opposite. Deflation is more toxic than inflation. We saw deflation in the Great Depression. The mentality of deflation is that the price of a good will cost less tomorrow so I will wait to buy. In deflation, everyone sits on their hands. Investment goes into the basement and so does consumption.
    and, a counter comment:
    Friedman said, inflation is a monetary phenomenon. TVs becoming cheaper is a reflection of economies of scale, not a deflated dollar. Just like housing becoming more expensive is a reflection of decreased supply, not an inflated dollar. As long as the currency values are stable, then inflation/deflation is at bay.
    I do think it's important to be concerned about the value of the currency right now.
    inflation-i-think-higher-threat-is-deflation/
  • QCD Rollover?
    I think the hangup is on the term "rollover". The CARES Act allows a "re-contribution" of funds withdrawn from an IRA before the 2020 RMD requirement was suspended. As I see it, I'm getting a "do over" to bring my IRA balance back to what it was before the withdrawal. I do agree that the source of the "re-contribution" is not the recipient of the QCD. I'll cross my fingers and keep you posted.
  • Municipal bonds perspectives- Where do We Go From Here

    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4340466-municipal-bond-perspective-where-go-from
    /where do We Go From Here
    Given the financial strength of the sector, we believe airports have the requisite resources to weather a decline in air travel over the next several months.
    If investment markets do not recover from recent declines before fiscal year-end (mostly June 30), schools will see significant investment losses in fiscal year 2020.
    We expect that sales taxes and income taxes will experience immediate shocks as a result of social distancing and demand-side pressures.
    As the COVID-19 pandemic evolved during the first quarter, the municipal bond market experienced one of its most volatile periods in years. Here, the Franklin Municipal Bond Department shares how they plan to navigate the market, which they think is likely to show signs of distress and elevated volatility for some time
    elieve levels of municipal market volatility are likely to remain elevated over the next few months, and potentially longer. However, our seasoned team of analysts and portfolio managers have experienced difficult market periods in the past, and we are using that collective knowledge to navigate through this panic as well./
    many municipals may end up bankrupted by late/summer fall unless market do rebounds and folks are less worried/install more monies into system/buying more. I think we are slowly getting there. The vanguard advisors that we talked to still recommends balance holdings of different products/vehicles and perhaps may lessen risks just in case another crash /W form recovery takes place
    we are still holding to our munis and corp porfolios, have not buy nor added recently.
    We did have one bond near bankruptcy past few weeks but we are still holding on since it did slightly recovered recently [RIG oil platforms]
  • Semper MBS Total Return Fund In Doghouse
    It's so tempting to buy now IOFIX,VCFAX and especially EIXIX which I think is "safer" but I don't dare. These broken MBS might have a problem
    [and later ...]
    Corp bonds rated invested grade were down 13% from the top. Black swan is unknown ... Pimco top ones PCI, PDI lost 30-40%.
    The funds you look at do seem broken. As corporates and MBSs recovered, these funds continued going down. Which is why, as Baseball_Fan wrote, it's important to know what you own, not just what their "stats" are.
    Every once in awhile, a picture really is worth a thousand words. Here's a graph showing YTD curves for MBB (iShares MBS), PTRIX (Pimco MBS fund), VTC (Vanguard Total Corporate ETF), VCFAX, and SEMRX.
    All dipped to varying degrees, but the first three recovered and are positive on the year.
    VCFAX flattened and is down 13%; SEMRX continued to plunge and is down 22%.
    SEMMX is negative over 1, 3, and 5 years. (It has not been around for a decade yet.) Next to that, DODIX looks pretty good. A problem with putting too much faith in volatility figures over a generally quiescent period is that one is blinded to latent risks.
    These "black swan" events come almost like clockwork. 2020, 2009, 2000, 1987, 1974. Pandemic risk is unknown? That sounds like a politician.
    "Over the past quarter century, warnings have been clear and consistent from both US government leaders, scientists, and global health officials: A pandemic was coming—and whenever it arrived, it would be catastrophic to the global economy."
    https://www.wired.com/story/an-oral-history-of-the-pandemic-warnings-trump-ignored/
  • For those who believe Covid will not affect the young
    Here is a little more info:
    In the vast majority of younger adults, covid-19 appears to result in mild illness with the risk of more severe consequences rising with every decade of age. According to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data, 0.8 percent of U.S. deaths as of Apr. 18 were in people ages 25 to 34; 2 percent among those 35 to 44; and 5.4 percent among those 45 to 54.
    From: https://washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/24/strokes-coronavirus-young-patients/
    Also, there seems to be a fairly strong link between having a severe case of Covid-19 and being obese among young people:
    Young adults with obesity are more likely to be hospitalized, even if they have no other health problems, studies show.
    https://nytimes.com/2020/04/16/health/coronavirus-obesity-higher-risk.html
  • For those who believe Covid will not affect the young
    I said it. It's pretty easy to conclude based on the numbers and people I know who have had it.
    According to the Mass. DPH website: Average age of those hospitalized is 69. Average age of those who have died, 82. To date, the rate of deaths for those 40 years of age and younger is 4 out of 100,000 people. So yes, it affects older people with pre-existing conditions at much greater rate. It's startling, really. Again, this number of saying "young" people, under 60, is ridiculous.
    https://mass.gov/doc/covid-19-dashboard-april-29-2020/download