Re: Investing for Income in Today's Environment ...
Two thoughts:
(1) Like Bartleby, the obstinate law clerk, in Melville's Bartleby, the Scrivener ... "I'd prefer not to."
(2) A contrary opinion might be "Get 'em while they last." - as you now have some serious bond buying competition.
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/federal-reserve-begins-individual-corporate-bond-purchases-secondary-market-relief-2020-6-1029309910

@FD100
you may have told us before but how do you avoid redemption fees on some of these funds?
Congratulations on establishing your system that seems to work almost all the time. How much work does it take to evaluate incoming data daily or hourly and trade so frequently? Sounds close to a real job to me

I do pay commissions sometimes but I try to buy Instit shares because I have an agreement to buy them at Schwab with fees waived. Selling is always free because Instit shares don't have short term fees. Several funds have their own short term fees and why I don't buy them. Even if I pay fees they are negligible when I make thousands.
It takes me just minutes every week for my portfolio because I have all the lists I need to see momentum and looking at my preferred pre-selected funds.
Example: if I want to buy HY Munis the 4 funds (NHMAX,ORNAX,OPTAX,GWMEX) are my top choices and what I have been using but I always take another look at other funds.
Investing has been my passion for years.
I do spend more if I post something that needs research, analysis and more.
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(link) "Stocks erased earlier losses and rose Monday, after the Federal Reserve said it would begin purchasing individual corporate bonds as part of its emerging lending program to inject liquidity into the virus-stricken economy.
Earlier in the session, the Dow was off as many as 762 points, or 3%, as investor jitters over rising coronavirus cases in key parts of the country stirred up an extension of last week’s pullback in equities."
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My main investments are bond OEFs, will see in the next several days where markets are going

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/06/15/asia-markets-coronavirus-china-economy-currencies-in-focus.html
Japan plunges more than 3%, with stocks in Asia dropping as virus fears resurface
Stocks in Asia fell on Monday, with the Nikkei 225 in Japan dropping more than 3% while South Korea's Kospi plunged 4.76%.
The moves regionally came as as investors weighed the potential impact of recent spikes in coronavirus cases.

Call it confirmation bias, but I generally agree with Clements. At least a couple of years ago I wondered (and posted) whether low rates coupled with interest rate risk rendered the value of bonds over cash dubious. I've written favorably about Buffett's propsed allocation, 10% short term (effectively cash), 90% equities. Though I disagreed with his singleminded focus on the S&P 500. This cash/equity approach is also essentially Evensky's 1985 two bucket strategy.
Figuring on a 4% withdrawal rate, the 10% cash could buffer a bear market taking 2.5 years to recover. Clements suggests 25% cash, or around a 6 year buffer. I might split the difference and put half of that 25% in cash, half in vanilla bonds, figuring that the bonds will do better even with modestly rising interest rates, if one waits 3 years or more.
As Clements noted, the expectation value of SS is greater if one delays taking benefits. This is especially true if one is focused on one's own lifetime and not on legacies. If one has a financial need for monthly checks before age 70, one can fill the gap with a temporary life annuity.
Which brings us to annuities. Dr. Wade Pfau says much the same thing as Clements - that the lower the current interest rates, the bigger the bargain annuities are, thanks to mortality credits. "Essentially, while the cost of funding retirement with an annuity increases as interest rates decline, the cost of funding retirement in other ways increases even faster than for the annuity. Therefore, the annuity becomes a better relative deal."
Speaking of Dr. Pfau, while he and Michael Kitces suggested seven years ago that a rising glidepath might provide a slightly higher probability of success (not running out of money over 30 years), subsequent research by Dr. David M. Blanchett showed that a traditional declining glidepath would work better in an environment with low interest rates and highly valued stocks. As it was in 2015 when he wrote his paper, and as it is now.
They had an ongoing exchange about this. Here's one part:

I re-ran the analysis that Michael and I did in our initial article, but I switched to the new capital market assumptions I use which allow for increasing bond yields over time while keeping a fixed average equity premium over bonds. ... It does indeed seem that retiring at times with particularly low bond yields, which can be expected to increase over time, may not favor rising equity glidepaths during retirement. It essentially causes the retiree to lock in low bond returns and even capital losses on a bond fund as bond yields gradually increase (on average) over time.
This is not to say that rising equity glidepaths are never a good idea. ... If interest rates were at a higher initial starting point, I’m guessing that rising glidepaths would look much better in his analysis.

Hi @Derf, Thank you for your question. In responding to it ... I can review my portfolio (performance wise) through M*'s portfolio manager on a daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, year to date, one year, three year, five year and ten year periods. In addition, some of the things tracked are the dividend yield, valuation, % weight of portfolio, daily change, unrealized gains, duration, maturity, expense ratio, & below 52 week high, plus some other things one of them being style box assignment.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/qai/2020/06/12/as-market-volatility-returns-check-out-these-strategies-to-protect-your-portfolio/#214c7ccc538b
As Market Volatility Returns, Check Out These Strategies To Protect Your Portfolio
Take advantage of any recovery today to initiate iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG), iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM), SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust ETF (SPY) and iShares MSCI Hong Kong Index Fund (EWH) put strategies. COVID-19 and economic disappointment potential is not a respecter of equity valuation. Yesterday’s performance reminds us that the markets tether to fundamentals can be loose, but it nonetheless exists.
We’ve been recommending playing for extreme outcomes and it still makes sense. Here is the cocktail designed to improve portfolio diversification against a number of scenarios and severity over the next several months until the picture gets clearer.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2020/06/12/municipal-bonds-swinging-back-up-if-modestly
Municipal Bonds Swinging Back Up, If Modestly
by Rob Amodeo of Western Asset Management,
After some wildness, the municipal bond market has posted strong overall returns in last few weeks. Investment grade municipal bond returns are positive for 2020

@Catch22 and others have been mentioning this very thing, I recall. Makes sense. I had been operating on an "old school" basis. 36% stocks now, 58% bonds. Goal: up to 65% bonds. But I won't be putting in much effort to get there. Looking 5 years out and trying to estimate profit, particularly now, would be a wild guess. Nevertheless, my "go-to" page is still Morningstar. They're telling me via X-Ray that my particular mix of funds will get me a 5-year yield that's 44% better than the Index they're using. As for cap gains, measured by EPS growth over 5 years: 31% better than the S&P500. But maybe that's just wishful thinking, based on normal times, anyhow. Covid-19 changes everything. Anyhow, the dividends I get monthly are not nothing. If I need to start collecting them--- after we move in the Spring to a bigger place, maybe--- they will be a big help with utilities, for example. Lots of solar here, though. If we're fortunate, we'll grab one of those.

Reliable Clements has some thoughts:
https://humbledollar.com/2020/06/farewell-yield/

From the article and then my comments
1) Abandon bonds = Rediculous idea. I have talked to many retirees and they don't want the high volatility that stocks offer
2) Delay Social Security: you can do lots of calculations based on estimates but you can't predict the future. Just start in the middle, my wife and I will start taking SS at age 65 because of the above + Medicare and taxes will be deducted from SS too.
3) immediate fixed annuities: not an easy choice. If you don't have enough you can't afford it. If you have enough you don't need it. You also can't assume treasury yield will stay lower and since I don't care about treasuries I also know funds that pay over 4%. PIMIX stills pays over 5%.
4) tax efficiency: always important.
Most of these generic articles/research hardly ever offer what to do such as 1) not all bonds are treasuries 2) there are several great mutual funds 3) most retirees can't work forever or delay their retirement and don't have enough money. I want to see more ideas.
Example1: in one month, GWMEX,ORNAX,NHMAX made over 6%.
Example 2: I think that Kitces has better ideas than most. See (link) “rising equity glidepath” actually does improve retirement outcomes = start at lower % in stocks and increase gradually

I transferred my Roth IRA to Vanguard a little over one year ago. After the transfer, FMIJX was replaced with VWILX. I did not expect VWILX to significantly outperform FMIJX during severe market downturns.
FMIJX - Max. 2020 Drawdown: -28.24%; YTD Performance: -19.10%
VWILX - Max. 2020 Drawdown: -15.52%; YTD Performance: 6.34%
FMI funds have often performed well during past market selloffs.

Reliable Clements has some thoughts:
https://humbledollar.com/2020/06/farewell-yield/

@WABAC said,

I have also seen activity attributed to sports bettors with no place to go.

Another reference:

Robinhood added more than three million funded accounts in the first four months of 2020, and half of customers who opened accounts this year said they were first-time investors, according to Nora Chan, a spokeswoman for the Menlo Park, California-based firm. E*Trade Financial Corp. had 329,000 net new accounts in the first three months of the year, with 260,000 added in March alone, the firm said in its first-quarter earnings statement. That was more than the company’s previous best annual net record.
While day trading can be risky and Portnoy might not be the best role model for young investors, Emanuel and Geraci said they think younger investors entering the market is positive for the long-term.
“The danger to the accessibility of it is very clear because you are bringing people in who may not be terribly qualified,” Emanuel said. “You learn more when you’re losing.”

barstool-sports-dave-portnoy

Congratulations to the Class of 2020! I must admit, when I pictured my eldest daughter graduating high school, I did not imagine her wearing a mask with her cap and gown while receiving her diploma in my backyard. Although the traditional festivities did not occur, I can say that she, along with all other graduates, are moving onto college or entering the work place with valuable lessons in hand. From adapting to online learning to enduring the uncertainty that life can throw our way, this class has displayed incredible resilience and we wish them the best of luck in their future endeavors. Resiliency also comes to mind when I think of the US equity market. COVID-19 resulted in one of the swiftest declines in history, but the rally has been historic too. Before yesterday’s pullback, the S&P 500 was up ~43% and even briefly turned positive on the year. Due to inflated optimism and the market pricing in an exorbitant amount of positive news, the uptick in volatility had been expected./

https://www.google.com/amp/s/in.mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idINKBN23K033
After jolt, investors still see stocks as long-term bet
Friday, June 12, 2020 10:37 a.m. EDT by Thomson Reuters
By Kate Duguid and Megan Davies
NEW YORK (Reuters) - An interruption to a searing rally gave a jolt to equity investors who had been getting used to weeks of steadily rising U.S. stocks
Imho, nothing is as attractive as long term bets on stocks

Https://www.raymondjames.com/commentary-and-insights/markets-investing/2020/06/12/weekly-investment-strategy
Weekly Investment Strategy
MARKETS AND INVESTING
June 12, 2020
Review the latest Weekly Headings by CIO Larry Adam.
Key Takeaways
Robust Recovery Is The General ‘School Of Thought’
Investors Hope A Second Wave Is ‘The Road Not Taken’
Valuations Require Investors To ‘Put Their Thinking Caps On’

https://money.usnews.com/investing/funds/slideshows/best-t-rowe-price-funds-for-retirement
These funds stand out in a crowded market.
When you’re choosing how to invest for retirement, T. Rowe Price funds are a recognizable name. T. Rowe Price retirement funds vie for investors’ attention alongside options from other large brokerages such as Vanguard and Fidelity. However, these funds feature some unique characteristics that set them apart from the competition. “Their goal seems to strive for steady and consistent returns without the razzle-dazzle of some other firms,” says Steve Azoury, financial advisor and owner of Azoury Financial in Troy, Michigan. “They don’t go for home runs and they rarely strike out, making them one of the most steady and respected firms in the investment business.” With a wide range of mutual fund options to choose from, it’s possible to build a customized retirement portfolio centered on your needs and goals. Here are seven of the best T. Rowe Price funds to consider when investing for retirement.
The seven best T. Rowe Price retirement funds:
— T. Rowe Price Growth Stock Fund (PRGFX)
— T. Rowe Price Blue Chip Growth Fund (TRBCX)
— T. Rowe Price Retirement 2040 Fund (TRRDX)
— T. Rowe Price Retirement 2030 Fund (TRRCX)
— T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation Fund (PRWCX)
— T. Rowe Price U.S. Bond Enhanced Index Fund (PBDIX)
— T. Rowe Price Health Sciences Fund (PRHSX)

This simple equation does a good job of explaining overall market behavior since mid-March.

The stock market equation since March 23 has been: TINA + MMT = MAMU
Mother of All Meltups = MAMU
There is no alternative to stocks = TINA
Modern Monetary Theory = MMT

If this is the case, I am left wondering how the P/E ratio will be evaluated going forward.
blog.yardeni.com/2020/06/mamu-mother-of-all-meltups.html

It doesn't look like they're making ROC payments. These aren't forms I generally look for (because funds I invest in return little if any capital, as is the case for most OEFs), but here is what I know;

Section 19(a) of the Investment Company Act of 1940 (the 1940 Act) generally prohibits a business development company (BDC) or a registered investment company from making a distribution from any source other than its net income (e.g., out of capital), unless that payment is accompanied by a written statement that adequately discloses the source or sources of the payment.
... the Section 19(a) notice [must] be sent to stockholders contemporaneously with the distribution payment.

https://us.eversheds-sutherland.com/mobile/NewsCommentary/Legal-Alerts/214294/Legal-Alert-SEC-Staff-states-that-IRS-Form-1099-DIV-cannot-be-used-to-satisfy-the-requirements-of-Section-19a-of-the-Investment-Company-Act-of-1940
Checking for 19A notices on the TCW (MetWest/TCW funds) site, one finds no 2020 notices, and the only notices for any MetWest fund for any year are for MetWest's Low Duration and Unconstrained Bond Funds, and then only for 2019. Even those notices show only tiny amounts of ROC for those other funds.
https://www.tcw.com/en/Literature/Tax-Center
Here's an example of what one expect to find from a fund that made frequent ROC payments:
https://www.troweprice.com/personal-investing/planning-and-research/tax-planning/distribution-notices.html

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/overheated-momentum-doomed-stock-market-155204976.html
Overheated Momentum’ Doomed Stock Market to
June 11, 2020, 10:52 AM CDT
/Overheated Momentum’ Doomed Stock Market to Quick Reversal
(Bloomberg) -- In a stock market inundated with retail investors rushing in to buy anything that moves, the swift reversal we’re seeing was more or less inevitable./
Is this a fierce corrections Will we see DOWS 18k levels again?...we are at where we were 2 wks ago

This fund has had incredibly strong performance since opening in Nov of 2018, up 27.8% since inception. I can't figure out how the yield is so high, 18%.
It has about 57% in investment grade bonds, mostly mortgages and corporate credit, no EM, a duration of 2.67, an average bond price of $94.11 and 23% in cash. Non of that indicates anything risky. It only dropped about 5% in March and is up 7% YTD.
Are they doing a "return of capital"? Is it because their asset base of 12 million is so small? They have a small amount in a few derivatives but nothing close to what Pimco uses. Seems to good to be true, what am I missing?