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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Portfolio Withdrawal Strategies
    @hank said- "I would advise younger investors who are dollar averaging in, saving for retirement and still in their 20s and 30s to go 100% equities... I’d probably split it into 3 different equity funds for safety if had to do it over."
    And I strongly agree with all of that. I would also add that my preference would be for equity funds that are managed by a group of advisors, such as at American Funds. (But I'm not at all pushing American Funds in any way.) Over the years here at MFO I've seen way too much anguish about funds led by some sort of wizard, who either loses his magic wand, quits to go somewhere else, retires, or dies.
  • Portfolio Withdrawal Strategies
    I would advise younger investors who are dollar averaging in, saving for retirement and still in their 20s and 30s to go 100% equities. Over 40 it becomes less of a ”no brainer” I suppose. My Templeton fee-based advisor put me in a single global fund when I was 23 or 24. While it was an excellent fund and served me well, I’d probably split it into 3 different funds for safety if I had it to do over again. The secret when very young is probably to be so busy with a burgeoning career, growing family, continuing education, new cars, sports etc. that you never think about those investments. The more you think about them the more you begin to worry and possibly get too conservative …
  • Portfolio Withdrawal Strategies
    WABAC said, "
    It's hard to think about retirement when you're hoarding soda bottles for their deposit value." Or aluminum cans for scrap.
  • Portfolio Withdrawal Strategies
    Cash cushions, or emergency funds, are different from investments in those getting-started years.
    It's hard to think about retirement when you're hoarding soda bottles for their deposit value.
    Ahhh, the good old days in San Francisco when a Bohemian life-style was still possible.
    I did end up taking penalties on what little I had in IRA's to help come up with a down payment on a house in Marin. Might be the smartest thing I've ever done with money besides paying cash for used cars.
  • Portfolio Withdrawal Strategies
    "I did not realize that you are supposed to invest 100% of your retirement accounts with equities."
    Some people suggest younger investors (early 20s to early 40s?) could be 100% invested in equities.
    Since their retirement is distant, they would ultimately get compensated for accepting additional risk.
    This of course assumes these investors have the risk tolerance
    necessary to avoid making poor decisions during market downturns.
    I don't believe this suggestion differentiated between taxable, tax-deferred, and tax-exempt accounts.
  • Portfolio Withdrawal Strategies
    I did not realize that you are supposed to invest 100% of your retirement accounts with equities. I never have. In fact equity %age in my retirement accounts is far lower than in my taxable accounts - not saying that is the right strategy, just stating facts. I could be completely wrong in my approach but my favoring taxable accounts for equity allocation has to do with expected lower tax rates on cap gains vs ordinary income and mutual fund distributions vs ETF distributions. I never had any equity or allocation mutual funds in my taxable accounts. It will be good to start a thread asking forum to share their %age equity in retirement vs taxable accounts.
  • Portfolio Withdrawal Strategies
    Thanks for your comments Old_Joe.
    Your retirement planning yielded excellent results!
    My primary reason for starting this thread was to learn more about various portfolio withdrawal strategies.
    I plan to retire relatively soon and wanted to see how others handled portfolio withdrawals in retirement.
  • Portfolio Withdrawal Strategies
    MikeM said- "I personally won't be taking 5% because I don't need to, but the thought of taking 3% sure sounds safer."
    And of course the key words there are "because I don't need to". So it's evident that there really is no percentage "rule" that fits everyone. Everyone's portfolio is different and everyone's needs are different. We, for example, have been retired over 20 years, are in our 80's, and have yet to need to take any percent from our portfolio/savings. In fact that has grown significantly since retirement.
    Neither of us came from wealth- I retired as a radio tech and my wife as a teacher. We both were super fortunate to have pensions and SS retirement income. But we began planning for retirement in 1970, and were very careful about expenditures. Being blessed (so far) with good health is a really major factor also.
    To reiterate: everyone's needs are different. There is no one percentage that fits all.
  • Portfolio Withdrawal Strategies
    "M only regret about my early financial decisions is not having our retirement accounts 100 % inequities when I was in my 30s and 40s. But I wanted to sleep at night!"
    I also was not 100% invested in equities during my 30s and 40s.
    Taking risk tolerance into consideration, it can be beneficial to construct
    a portfolio that an investor is comfortable with to decrease anxiety.
  • Portfolio Withdrawal Strategies
    In general, models like these are helpful to me, but I rarely do exactly what they recommend
    It is difficult I have found to accurately predict what your spending will be in retirement. I ran multiple [plans over the years but the reality in retirement has proven most of them were too high, especially when you look at just the necessities, ie food utilities rent and insurance
    One of the reasons we have adequate savings in retirement is we were rather frugal when we were working. We splured only on the kid's education which paid of. Small house, cheap cars camping vacations mean we don't have to worry about running out of money.
    M only regret about my early financial decisions is not having our retirement accounts 100 % inequities when I was in my 30s and 40s. But I wanted to sleep at night!
  • Portfolio Withdrawal Strategies
    "Investors have been conditioned for decades to believe they can withdraw only 4% a year
    through a theoretical 30-year retirement, adjusted for inflation."

    "But several studies and retirement experts now view 4% as too conservative and inflexible.
    J.P. Morgan, in a recent report, recommended about 5%.
    David Blanchett, who has a doctorate in personal financial planning and has studied retirement withdrawal rates for years, says 5% 'is a much better starting place, given today’s economic reality and people’s flexibility.'”

    "The inventor of the 4% rule agrees.
    Retired financial planner Bill Bengen tells Barron’s he is revising his benchmark in an upcoming book,
    and that a rate 'very close to 5%' may be warranted."

    This article (link below) places too much emphasis on bucket strategies.
    While a formal bucket strategy can be beneficial for certain investors, it is not essential.
    The "4% rule" is not an ironclad rule - it's only a decent starting point for retirement withdrawal rates.
    1) What are your thoughts regarding retirement withdrawal rates of ~5% for the general population?
    2) Which withdrawal strategy do you utilize and why:
    a) fixed real withdrawal amount (FRWA); b) FRWA which skips inflation adjustment after annual portfolio loss;
    c) RMD method using IRS Life Expectancy Tables; d) "guardrails" plan developed by Guyton and Klinger;
    e) other strategy.
    Portfolio Withdrawal Strategies
  • BCM Focus Small/Micro-Cap Fund will be liquidated
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1950357/000121390024076311/ea0213708-01_497.htm
    97 1 ea0213708-01_497.htm 497
    BCM FOCUS FUNDS
    As to its Separate Series
    BCM FOCUS SMALL/MICRO-CAP FUND
    Supplement dated September 6, 2024
    to the Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information dated February 27, 2024
    This Supplement to the Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information for the BCM Focus Small/Micro-Cap Fund, a series of the BCM Focus Funds (the “Trust”), updates the Prospectus for the BCM Focus Small/Micro-Cap Fund, and the Statement of Additional Information for the Trust dated February 27, 2024, to amend certain information as described below.
    NOTICEOF LIQUIDATION
    OF THE BCM FOCUS SMALL/MICRO-CAP FOCUS FUND
    At a meeting of the Board of Trustees held on August 23, 2024, upon the recommendation of Bares Capital Management, Inc., the Fund’s Investment Advisor, the Board of Trustees (the “Board”), including all the independent trustees of the BCM Focus Funds (the “Trust”), as such is defined under the Investment Company Act of 1940, unanimously approved a proposal to liquidate the BCM Focus Small/Micro-Cap Fund (the “Fund”) pursuant to a “Plan of Liquidation”. After careful consideration of several factors which they deemed relevant to their making the decision whether to liquidate the Fund, the Board concluded that it is in the best interest of the Fund and its shareholders to liquidate the Fund. The Board, therefore, approved that the Fund is to be liquidated on or about October 11, 2024 (the “Liquidation Date”). The Liquidation Date may be changed without notice at the discretion of the Trust’s officers.
    Suspension of Sales. Shares of the Fund will close to new purchases as of the close of the market on the date of this Supplement and the Fund will begin an orderly dissolution. To the extent there are any dividend or distribution payments made prior to the Liquidation Date, they will continue to be paid either in cash or in additional shares of the Fund, depending on each shareholder’s current election, as disclosed in the Prospectus. The Fund reserves the right to change this policy at any time.
    Liquidation of Assets. The Fund may depart from its stated investment objective and policies as it prepares to liquidate and distribute its assets to its shareholders. It is anticipated that beginning at the close of the market on the date of this supplement the Fund’s portfolio will be positioned into cash, cash equivalents or other liquid assets. Shareholders who remain in the Fund until the Liquidation Date will automatically receive, promptly following the Liquidation Date, a liquidation distribution equal to the net asset value of the shares of the Fund that such shareholder then holds plus, accrued and unpaid earnings of the Fund at the time of liquidation. The liquidation of the Fund’s portfolio is likely to result in increased transaction costs, which may be borne by the Fund and its shareholders and may result in higher capital gains for taxable shareholders. Shareholders should contact their tax advisers concerning the tax consequences of the liquidation.
    The liquidation of the Fund may result in one or more taxable events for shareholders subject to federal income tax. The redemption of shares prior to the Liquidation Date will generally cause a redeeming shareholder to realize a capital gain or loss depending on the shareholder’s tax basis in the shares. Similarly, liquidation proceeds paid to a shareholder as of (or prior to) the Liquidation Date will generally give rise to capital gains or capital losses depending on the shareholder’s tax basis in the shares. In addition, on or prior to the Liquidation Date, the Fund may declare taxable distributions attributable to its net investment income and net short- and/or long-term capital gain (including capital gains, if any, from the liquidation of the Fund’s assets) in advance of the Fund’s regular distribution schedule. All or a portion of any such distributions may be taxable as ordinary income.
    Shareholders should consult a personal tax adviser with respect to the effects of the liquidation and of any associated distributions.
    IMPORTANT INFORMATION FOR RETIREMENT PLAN INVESTORS
    If you are a retirement plan investor, you should consult your tax advisor regarding the consequences of a redemption of Fund shares. If you receive a distribution from an Individual Retirement Account or a Simplified Employee Pension (SEP), (IRA), you must roll the proceeds into another Individual Retirement Account within sixty (60) days of the date of the distribution in order to avoid having to include the distribution in your taxable income for the year. If you receive a distribution from a 403(b)(7) Custodian Account (Tax-Sheltered account) or a Keogh Account, you must roll the distribution into a similar type of retirement plan within sixty (60) days in order to avoid disqualification of your plan and the severe tax consequences that it can bring. If you are the trustee of a Qualified Retirement Plan, you may reinvest the money in any way permitted by the plan and trust agreement.
    Shareholders who hold their shares through an IRA should consult their tax advisers concerning the tax implications of a distribution, their eligibility to roll over a distribution and the procedures applicable to such rollovers. Caution: If you hold shares through an IRA and do not reinvest liquidation or redemption proceeds through your IRA (i.e., if you cash a check representing those proceeds or deposit or reinvest them in a different account), such proceeds may be subject to a 10% penalty and taxed as ordinary income in the year of receipt.
    ANY SHAREHOLDERS WHO HAVE NOT REDEEMED OR EXCHANGED THEIR SHARES OF THE FUND PRIOR TO OCTOBER 11, 2024 WILL HAVE THEIR SHARES AUTOMATICALLY REDEEMED AS OF THAT DATE, AND PROCEEDS WILL BE SENT TO THE ADDRESS OR ACCOUNT OF RECORD.
    **********************
    Shareholders should read this Supplement in conjunction with the BCM Focus Small/Micro-Cap Fund’s Prospectus and the Statement of Additional Information, each as supplemented from time to time. This document provides information that you should know before investing and should be retained for future reference. This document is available upon request and without charge by calling UMB Fund Services, Inc. at (888)885-8859.
    Investors should retain this supplement for future reference.
  • September Commentary Ben Carlson's chart
    Agree with you 100% @larryB. I wouldn't be able to sleep at night if I experienced five years of hard work earnings go poof in the market within a few weeks...
    Like I stated earlier, easy to say in hindsight just stay invested etc...but the market doesn't care what you need to support your retirement and most crapped themselves when the markets drew down by 30% plus... They say it always comes back like that's a law of gravity or something...just like housing always goes up ..hmmm
  • Fidelity Automatic Account Builder changes
    @Sven is asking what price is received when a purchase is made automatically, as opposed to being entered by the investor. It's a good question.
    Most automatic investments are via DRIP plans. "True" DRIPs are set up with the companies themselves. In these plans, investors often receive shares from a company based on its closing price on the day of reinvestment, frequently at a discount. For example:
    common stockholders may now receive a number of shares based on 95% of the market price per share of common stock at the close of regular trading on The Nasdaq Capital Market on the valuation date fixed by the Board for such distribution
    https://ir.ofscreditcompany.com/shareholder-services/dividend-reinvestment-plan
    However, for "synthetic" DRIPs, where the brokerage is reinvesting the divs, it's not clear what price the investor is paying for the additional shares. Likewise, when the brokerage is automatically purchasing shares (with investor cash, not divs) on scheduled dates, what price is paid for those shares?
    What Fidelity does when reinvesting divs (I don't know about scheduled investments):
    Note ... that the stock price at which your reinvestment occurs is not necessarily the same as the price that is in effect on the dividend payable date. This is because we generally buy the shares of domestic companies two business days before the dividend payable date [likely now one day before with T+1], at the market price(s) in effect at the time, in order to help ensure that we have shares on hand to place in your account on the dividend payable date.
    https://www.fidelity.com/bin-public/060_www_fidelity_com/documents/customer-service/brokerage-retirement-cust-agree-and-commission-sched.pdf
    Related: what price does M* use for purchases in calculating total return including reinvested dividends?
    Reinvestments are made using the actual reinvestment price,
    https://admainnew.morningstar.com/directhelp/Glossary/Performance/Total_Return.htm
  • Kotlikoff..."No one can safely use Fidelity's "Planning Tool" to plan their finances
    @mark. Thanks for sharing that link. Mr .Kotlikoff convinced me his product is not for me. Having been retired for almost six years I have figured out that the finances of retirement are an always moving target that will defy precision modeling ,,, even from a Harvard economist who has published 3.64 million articles.
  • Kotlikoff..."No one can safely use Fidelity's "Planning Tool" to plan their finances
    I couldn't open the link but googled Kotlikoff and found it on his substack page.
    You get what you pay for. Fido is free. MAxFi (Kotlikoff) costs $89 a year, but you only need to run it once and then maybe a few years latter. They will save your data as best I can tell
    I have been pretty impressed by MaxiFi, and consider it money well spent, although it is best for people who are making decisions prior to retirement like "can I afford to retire now" or when to take Social Security
    I suspect most people would come at spending decisions on irregular basis ie "Can I afford that trip this year"
    MAxifi tells you what the max is you can spend every year. A little strange, as I assume most people worried about retirement are having trouble saving enough, not overspending in retirement
  • Kotlikoff..."No one can safely use Fidelity's "Planning Tool" to plan their finances
    Kotlikoff make some interesting comments...curious...for those retired and non-retired, and if you are comfortable answering...how do you plan your finances...self planning, advisor, software tool, "I have a bullet proof govt pension so not too concerned", kind of rough frame work and wing it as man plans and God laughs....??
    https://larrykotlikoff.substack.com/p/fidelitys-retirement-planner-versus
  • Stable-Value (SV) Rates, 9/1/24
    Stable-Value (SV) Rates, 9/1/24
    TIAA Traditional Annuity (Accumulation) Rates
    Rates down by 25 bps
    Restricted RC 5.25%, RA 5.00%
    Flexible RCP 4.50%, SRA 4.25%, IRA-101110+ 4.50%
    (TIAA Declaration Year 3/1 - 2/28)
    TSP G Fund pending (previous 4.125%).
    Options outside of workplace retirement plans include m-mkt funds, bank m-mkt accounts (FDIC insured), T-Bills, short-term brokered CDs.
    #StableValue #401k #403b #TIAA #TSP
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1632/thread
  • WealthTrack Show
    Bill Wilby, former portfolio manager for Oppenheimer Global Fund, is the featured guest this week.
    He's concerned about "unknown unknowns."
    Specifically, his major areas of concern are Private Equity (PE) and Private Credit.
    S&P 500 leverage ratio is 1.6 while PE leverage ratio may be 5 or 6 (difficult to discern).
    PE returns may decline significantly in the next 3 or 4 years.
    Backward-looking endowments/pension funds will probably decide to pull back if this happens.
    Wilby doesn't think this is a 2007/2008 caliber problem but doesn't know for certain since data is lacking.
    Consuelo asked Mr. Wilby how investing has changed over the past 20 years.
    Much more money is being run in quantitative strategies.
    The public market has shrunk relative to the private market.
    US debt to GDP ratio was probably 50% or 60% but is now at 120%.
    The Fed balance sheet has grown 10 times during the past 20 years!
    Not surprisingly, the market cap of gold (hedge against debasement?) has gone up 10 times as well.
    Wilby owns individual stocks and cash (~70%/30% mix) while avoiding bonds in his personal portfolio.
    His one investment for a diversified portfolio is AMSL which he also recommended last year.
    I really enjoyed this episode.
    https://wealthtrack.com/great-investors-retirement-portfolio/