Ad-hoc feature returns this week.
LINK1 LINK2 BarronsLINK
TRADER. Wall Street exhaled as the control of White House and Senate had clarity, but that for House is still in limbo (Republicans need to pick up only 7 more, but Democrats need 19 more). Stocks rose sharply, while the volatility index VIX fell sharply. Investors are reviewing Trumponomics 1.0 to figure out Trumponomics 2.0 and are betting on value/cyclicals (IVE), financials (XLF, KRE), energy (XLE), industrials, defense and small caps. In healthcare, Medicare Advantage (Part C) may get a boost, and ACA/Obamacare the boot.
But the economic and market conditions now are different. It’s unclear how much of the tax cuts, tariffs (on friends and foes) and deregulations will go through. Watch tech and retail for first adverse impacts of new tariffs-counter-tariffs. Inflation may remain above the Fed’s +2% average target and that target may be in question (e.g. why not +3%?). The budget deficit is already double that in 2016, and the bond market may not like a big growth in deficits. That has been the message of the bond market already, but 5%+ 10-yr may pose real problems for both stocks and bonds. Earnings growth estimate remain strong in double-digits.
The elections are over and Trumponomics 2.0 will be here soon. Consider financials (XLF, KBE, KRE; play on lower rates and deregulation), value/cyclicals (IVE; catchup play), small caps (IJR, SPSM; play on domestic companies), bonds (SHY, LQD, HYG; play on lower rates, even if rates may move up later due to inflation, deficits, debt). All these had strong post-election bounces, but there is more to come.
INTERVIEW/Q&A/FUNDS. Meb FABER, Cambria (Cofounder, CEO, CIO; SYLD, etc). Value manager Faber has an active eTF SYLD that focuses on SHAREHOLDER YIELD (dividend yield + buyback yield); the eTF also takes into account valuation, quality, momentum, and has caps on sectors and countries. Since 2009, the SP500 has been a 10-bagger, beating most other things – unprecedented, comparable to the Roaring 1920s, the Nifty Fifty of early-1970s, the Dot. com bubble of late-1990s, or whatever. Both earnings growth and P/E expansion contributed to this fantastic move. But where to now? If you put value and trend (momentum) in 4 boxes, the best box has low valuation and uptrend, but the 2nd best box is expensive valuation and uptrend (meaning trend trumps valuation). The ways to diversify away from market-cap indexes include dividend stocks (obviously, Faber prefers shareholder yield), foreign markets, EMs, etc. The firm also has an active global asset allocation eTF GAA, an eTF of eTFs.
FUNDS. Indexing has benefited large caps. Many startups and early-stage companies remain private longer, and there are several unicorns among the private companies. The M&A and bankruptcy have eliminated many weak public small caps. So, the universe of public small caps has shrunk. The total market Wilshire 5000 index now has only 3,370 stocks. Small cap R2000 has many unprofitable companies (a better small-cap index is SP SC 600). People are thinking that the old Fama-French studies about outperformance of small caps don’t apply anymore. Mentioned are OEFs AVALX, NEAGX; eTFs DFAS, IJR, IWM, SPSM. (By @lewisbraham at MFO)
FUNDS. Post-election, Tesla/TSLA has run up sharply, but the new CEF DXYZ (3/26/24- ) has done twice better; its premium is an astounding +329%. It has high exposure to TSLA and SpaceX. The fund buys private unicorns through their venture-capital financing and pre-IPO stages. But its recent rise may be as fleeting as its moonshot in April. (Retail investors don’t have easy access to the private-equity market, so the premium is so high. The private-equity market is quite illiquid and volatile.)
INCOME. Small caps with good dividends include CWH (retail), CRGY (energy), KGS (energy); eTFs DES, OUSM. Small caps are seen among the beneficiaries of Trumponomics 2.0.
OTHER VOICES. Allan SLOAN. There aren’t many companies that now offer traditional/DB PENSION plans. Those that still offer them to current employees or retirees are offloading the DB pension plans for ANNUITIES from insurers. The characterization and evaluation of liabilities are different for pension plans and insurers. So, companies typically have large one-time gains on these conversions. An obvious loss for beneficiaries is the loss of PBGC guarantee for the pension plans (and they don’t have a say on what insurer was chosen for conversion).
RETIREMENT. Just when investors thought that bond yields were head lower, they rose instead. The bond market is getting nervous about annual deficits and total debt. Bond volatility index MOVE is high (it has eased some post-election). But the bond market is more than the rate-sensitive Treasuries. Consider shorter maturities with more credit risks – VMBS, IGSB, USHY, FRA (CEF).

The main issue apparently isn't about salary increase. The union is trying to restore some version of a defined benefit retirement plan. Probably a lost cause, but I wish them well.

Good luck with that. Losing the accumulation phase is nearly impossible to catch up. Besides, pension plans have been disappearing from the work place and replace with define contribution plans. Workers have to contribute to it and manage it throughout their lives.

Opened a position in QQMNX today. No trade fees at Schwab which was a pleasant surprise so I purchased additional small lots too with the small cash positions I had in a few retirement accounts.

Though a bit shorter than usual (six stories instead of seven or eight) because I suspect it will be a bit hard to be heard above the clamor of the election. Just finished reading a story on coping with election anxiety which made good points even if it's a bit hard to chill out.
Devesh, as I note in the publisher's letter, has been called back to active service in the world o' finance. I will miss his voice even though I cheer for his opportunities.
Lynn continues to humble and inspire me with the breadth of his post-retirement vision and engagement. That continues this money with his advice on living paycheck-to-paycheck and his work with a group that helps folks facing that exact challenge.
The unifying theme on the three fund specific pieces might be "a redemption story." AlphaCentric has been mightily troubled, into which CrossingBridge might bring an island of calm and strong performance. David Sherman is very sure that "approach with caution" is good advice for folks interested in AlphaCentric Real Income. His team is working to create a smooth portfolio transition and a valuable tool for you, but both with take time.
Bridgeway is one of those groups whose culture is utterly admirable (from capping executive comp to donating half of their earnings to charity to have the senior people answer the phone when you call) but whose performance is streaky. Back in the days of Brill's MFI we used to have portfolio contests judged on monthly performance. If you wanted to use, toggle Bridgeway Ultra-Small with Bridgeway Ultra-Large and a soupcon of Technology Value was nearly unbeatable. For a long while Aggressive Investor (and not-quite-as Aggressive Investor II) were golden. Then ... In any case, they think they've found a powerful tool in their Intangible Capital Intensity metric, they've been running private money successfully with it and the lead manager built a $15 billion practice at QMA using a similar discipline.
Even Tweedy, Browne has elements of redemption. They're 100 years old now, deeply committed to value and famously authors of What Has Worked in Investing. Except that it hasn't worked quite as it used to which has led Tweedy in the direction of "value in a new century" research. High dividend was one move, insider alignment (along with value) is the next. They rarely take impulsive steps, so I'll be curious to see how things play out.
And The Shadow is chronicling a lot of active ETF from mutual fund guys and fund-to-ETF conversions, signs of a reorienting industry.
Finally, you'll note our podcasting foray. Let me know if there's any gain there, and we can try using the tech on investing-specific articles. In theory it's just "upload and stand back." In practice, it takes five or six sets of revise-and-resubmit to get the "podcast hosts" to catch our meaning and direction. That said, if it works for folks, we'll do it.
Cheers.

Retirement plans COLA adjustments for 2025:
2025-cost-living-adjustments-retirement-plans

Back when I was trading futures, they were the only way to act on things during the overnight sessions. There's a chance I might dabble with this 'feature' on stocks a few times just for kicks and to see how it works if there's something I want to do or respond to (I do well in the pre/post-markets when I use them) -- but I have no desire to become a 24x5 trader or investor that's glued to their screens.
I fear this will further turn investing into a Robin-Hood/Sports-Betting type of gamification for the masses that induces them to gamble with their savings in ways that provide a dopamine hit in the here-and-now while drawing down their retirement assets for the future.

Stable-Value (SV) Rates, 11/1/24
TIAA Traditional Annuity (Accumulation) Rates
Rates up by 25 bps
Restricted RC 5.25%, RA 5.00%
Flexible RCP 4.50%, SRA 4.25%, IRA-101110+ 4.50%
(TIAA Declaration Year 3/1 - 2/28)
TSP G Fund 4.375% pending (previous 3.875%).
Options outside of workplace retirement plans include m-mkt funds, bank m-mkt accounts (FDIC insured), T-Bills, short-term brokered CDs.
#StableValue #401k #403b #TIAA #TSP
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1719/thread

Food for Thought... @msf popcorn for thought
@WABAC highlighted:

Americans believe they need to save an average of $1.8 million for retirement

@ a 4% SWR that $1.8M would provide $72K of income for spending. Seems like a reasonable retirement spending amount.
Looking at this $1.8M nest egg another way, one could assign a 25 year asset value to one's pension, SSI or a combination of the two by adding up the 25 years of payouts.
SSI Only:
Those that will receive SSI, one could assign a "25 yr asset value" to SSI. An average earner will receive $24K while a high earner will receive about $42K for 2024. In today's dollars, one would need $600K to provide a $24K SWR for an average earner and $1.05M to provide a $42K SWR for a high earner.

Average earners will still need ($1.8M-$600K) or $1.2M to bridge their $24K SSI income of $72K
High earners will still need ($1.8M-$1.05M) or $750K to bridge their $42K SSI income of $72K
For most Americans who have little or no savings, SSI optimistically will provide about 30-60% of a retiree's income needs. Retirees will need to make up the difference by spending down savings/assets, working after age 65, and modifying their spending.
Sadly for some, it's a bridge too far.

I may have a 403(b) from the university, but *all* of my investments are in my taxable accounts that I consider as 'retirement accounts'. So just focusing on tax-deferred/exempt accounts doesn't present a complete or accurate picture, umho.

Speaking of paying cash- we recently had extensive tree work done at the place in Guerneville. It ran about 14k, and the tree service company sent us an email invoice which was set up to pay by credit card. That got me thinking- by CC we would get 1% back, right?
So I used two JPM credit cards to pay the invoice instead of sending a check, as we usually would have done. By coincidence the JPM checking account had just received two retirement deposits and was flush, so I just transferred 14k from the checking account to pay the CC charges. The $140 CC spiff paid for a new garden edger which we needed.
Every little bit helps!

Yes, this does not compute.
Possible explanations include:
a) Americans have saved huge amounts in taxable accounts.
b) Americans will sell their businesses for large profits and use proceeds to fund retirement.
c) Americans will sell their pricey homes for large profits and use proceeds to fund retirement.
d) Americans will receive a huge inheritance and be on "easy street" in retirement.
I don't believe most Americans will experience the scenarios listed above.

e) Winning the lottery
f) Successfully suing something, or somebody, for something, anything, and the lawyers didn't take all of it.
g) Elon Musk will give a million dollars to anyone that says a nice thing about the app formerly known as Twitter.
Strategies that won't be tried:
a) Paying cash for used vehicles

@msf
Good points!
I realize this is "financial popcorn" but I sometimes read these articles for entertainment.
Perhaps I should pursue a different hobby? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
The average IRA balance could be skewed much higher if Peter Thiel's IRA was included.
Lord of the Roths

Per the OP provided link - The average retirement account balance for U.S. households was $333,940 in 2022, according to the Federal Reserve Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF). That’s a 12.9% increase from $295,740 in 2019.

Another possibility - multiple sources (with different sampled populations), multiple definitions.
Americans believe they need to save an average of $1.8 million for retirement,
From Charles Schwab, presumably but not necessarily Schwab customer beliefs.
The average 401(k) balance in the second quarter of 2024 was $127,100
From Fidelity - probably just the accounts that Fidelity administers. How representative is that of the working (and retired) population? Also and importantly, this is an average per account, not per person, and people may have multiple 401(k) accounts, not to mention 403(b) accounts, 457 accounts, and other employer-sponsored accounts.
68% of American workers in 2024 feel somewhat or very confident in their ability to have enough money in retirement
From EBRI - a source I consider more reliable, but I'd still have to look at their methodology to know whom they were polling and how the question was phrased.
https://www.ebri.org/docs/default-source/by-the-numbers/ebri_rsrc_facts-and-figures_011923.pdf
I view this piece as financial porn, or more magnanimously financial popcorn - fun to munch on but ultimately just airy fluff. Enjoy it for what it's worth.
Bonus: The average IRA balance, as opposed to the median retirement account balance could be skewing high thanks to IRA accounts like Mitt Romney's, which was worth $1M over a decade ago.

Yes, this does not compute.
Possible explanations include:
a) Americans have saved huge amounts in taxable accounts.
b) Americans will sell their businesses for large profits and use proceeds to fund retirement.
c) Americans will sell their pricey homes for large profits and use proceeds to fund retirement.
d) Americans will receive a huge inheritance and be on "easy street" in retirement.
I don't believe most Americans will experience the scenarios listed above.

Kind of bizarre I think. Op. cit.
A one,

Americans believe they need to save an average of $1.8 million for retirement,

And a two:

The average 401(k) balance in the second quarter of 2024 was $127,100

And a three:

68% of American workers in 2024 feel somewhat or very confident in their ability to have enough money in retirement,

That don't add up, do it?

Lots of interesting Stats
deposit accounts retirement statistics

The main issue apparently isn't about salary increase. The union is trying to restore some version of a defined benefit retirement plan. Probably a lost cause, but I wish them well.

Thanks @yogibearbull.
I'd like to add (since I just turned 65):

2025 standard deduction over 65
There's an additional standard deduction for taxpayers 65 and older and those who are blind. For 2025 that additional amount is $1,600 ($2,000 if unmarried and not a surviving spouse).
Those eligible can add the extra standard deduction to the regular amount for their filing status. So, a single taxpayer 65 or older (or who is blind) can claim a total standard deduction of $17,000 on their 2025 federal tax return.

Source:
https://kiplinger.com/taxes/the-new-standard-deduction-is-here
Also, found these contribution limits for 2025:
"Remember there are catch-up provisions that increase some of these limits"
-I noticed they missed the $1K catch-up provision for HSA

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/754510/000075451024000276/filing8195.htm
497 1 filing8195.htm PRIMARY DOCUMENT
Supplement to the
Fidelity® Small Cap Growth Fund
Class A, Class M, Class C, Class I, and Class Z
September 28, 2024
Prospectus
The following information supplements information found in the "Fund Summary" section under the "Purchase and Sale of Shares" heading.
The fund is currently closed to new investors. For more information, see the "Additional Information about the Purchase and Sale of Shares" section of the prospectus. Remember to keep shares in your fund position to be eligible to purchase additional shares of the fund.
The following information supplements information found in the "Shareholder Information" section under the "Additional Information about the Purchase and Sale of Shares" heading.
Effective the close of business on October 16, 2024, new positions in Fidelity® Small Cap Growth Fund (the fund) may no longer be opened. Shareholders of the fund on that date may continue to add to their fund positions existing on that date. Investors who did not own shares of the fund on October 16, 2024, generally will not be allowed to buy shares of the fund except that new fund positions may be opened: 1) by participants in most group employer retirement plans (and their successor plans) if a qualifying fund is already established as an investment option under the plans (or under another plan sponsored by the same employer), 2) by participants in a 401(a) plan covered by a master record keeping services agreement between Fidelity and a national federation of employers that included a qualifying fund as a core investment option, 3) for accounts managed on a discretionary basis by certain registered investment advisers that have discretionary assets of at least $500 million invested in mutual funds and already included the fund in their discretionary account program, 4) by a mutual fund or a qualified tuition program for which Fidelity serves as investment manager, 5) by a portfolio manager of the fund, 6) by a fee deferral plan offered to trustees of certain Fidelity® funds, if the fund is an investment option under the plan, 7) by qualified intermediaries to facilitate in-kind redemption activity when deemed by the Adviser to be in the best interests of the fund, and 8) by certain asset pools associated with an organization that already offers a qualifying fund as an investment option in its retirement plan(s). These restrictions generally will apply to investments made directly with Fidelity and investments made through intermediaries. Investors may be required to demonstrate eligibility to buy shares of the fund before an investment is accepted.
ASCP-PSTK-1024-138
1.808092.138
October 16, 2024
Supplement to the
Fidelity® Small Cap Growth K6 Fund
September 28, 2024
Prospectus
The following information supplements information found in the "Fund Summary" section under the "Purchase and Sale of Shares" heading.
The fund is currently closed to new investors. For more information, see the "Additional Information about the Purchase and Sale of Shares" section of the prospectus. Remember to keep shares in your fund position to be eligible to purchase additional shares of the fund.
The following information supplements information found in the "Shareholder Information" section under the "Additional Information about the Purchase and Sale of Shares" heading.
Effective the close of business on October 16, 2024, new positions in Fidelity® Small Cap Growth K6 Fund (the fund) may no longer be opened. Shareholders of the fund on that date may continue to add to their fund positions existing on that date. Investors who did not own shares of the fund on October 16, 2024, generally will not be allowed to buy shares of the fund except that new fund positions may be opened: 1) by participants in most group employer retirement plans (and their successor plans) if a qualifying fund is already established as an investment option under the plans (or under another plan sponsored by the same employer), 2) by participants in a 401(a) plan covered by a master record keeping services agreement between Fidelity and a national federation of employers that included a qualifying fund as a core investment option, 3) for accounts managed on a discretionary basis by certain registered investment advisers that have discretionary assets of at least $500 million invested in mutual funds and already included the fund in their discretionary account program, 4) by a mutual fund or a qualified tuition program for which Fidelity serves as investment manager, 5) by a portfolio manager of the fund, 6) by a fee deferral plan offered to trustees of certain Fidelity® funds, if the fund is an investment option under the plan, 7) by qualified intermediaries to facilitate in-kind redemption activity when deemed by the Adviser to be in the best interests of the fund, and 8) by certain asset pools associated with an organization that already offers a qualifying fund as an investment option in its retirement plan(s). These restrictions generally will apply to investments made directly with Fidelity and investments made through intermediaries. Investors may be required to demonstrate eligibility to buy shares of the fund before an investment is accepted.
SCPK6-PSTK-1024-104
1.9886693.104
October 16, 2024
Supplement to the
Fidelity® Small Cap Growth Fund and Fidelity® Small Cap Value Fund
September 28, 2024
Prospectus
The following information supplements information for Fidelity® Small Cap Growth Fund found in the "Fund Summary" section under the "Purchase and Sale of Shares" heading.
The fund is currently closed to new investors. For more information, see the "Additional Information about the Purchase and Sale of Shares" section of the prospectus. Remember to keep shares in your fund position to be eligible to purchase additional shares of the fund.
The following information supplements information found in the "Shareholder Information" section under the "Additional Information about the Purchase and Sale of Shares" heading.
Effective the close of business on October 16, 2024, new positions in Fidelity® Small Cap Growth Fund (the fund) may no longer be opened. Shareholders of the fund on that date may continue to add to their fund positions existing on that date. Investors who did not own shares of the fund on October 16, 2024, generally will not be allowed to buy shares of the fund except that new fund positions may be opened: 1) by participants in most group employer retirement plans (and their successor plans) if a qualifying fund is already established as an investment option under the plans (or under another plan sponsored by the same employer), 2) by participants in a 401(a) plan covered by a master record keeping services agreement between Fidelity and a national federation of employers that included a qualifying fund as a core investment option, 3) for accounts managed on a discretionary basis by certain registered investment advisers that have discretionary assets of at least $500 million invested in mutual funds and already included the fund in their discretionary account program, 4) by a mutual fund or a qualified tuition program for which Fidelity serves as investment manager, 5) by a portfolio manager of the fund, 6) by a fee deferral plan offered to trustees of certain Fidelity® funds, if the fund is an investment option under the plan, 7) by qualified intermediaries to facilitate in-kind redemption activity when deemed by the Adviser to be in the best interests of the fund, and 8) by certain asset pools associated with an organization that already offers a qualifying fund as an investment option in its retirement plan(s). These restrictions generally will apply to investments made directly with Fidelity and investments made through intermediaries. Investors may be required to demonstrate eligibility to buy shares of the fund before an investment is accepted.