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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • The Presidential Election Correction Continues
    To ram through his 11th-hour Supreme Court nominee El Gran Jefe introduced Barrett to many senators who were maskless like him: https://politico.com/news/2020/10/02/trump-coronavirus-lawmakers-exposed-425026
  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    Numbers as of 9/30/2020.
    image
    Observations for one month as of 9/30/2020:
    Multi- Flat for the month but securitized shined with 1-2.9%/
    HY Munis – Flat for the month but Nuveen (NHMAX,NVHAX) did better.
    Inter term – (-0.1%) for the month. TGLMX (mostly securitized) did 0.4%.
    Bank loans – up 0.3-4% for the month.
    Uncontrain/Nontrad -0.2 for the month. Securitized(JASVX,DFLEX)
    HY+EM – HY -0.9 and EM=-1.7% for the month with correlation to stocks.
    Corp – down month. PIGIX -0.4%.
    SP500(VFIAX)-Down monthth at -3.8, YTD=5.55%.
    PCI-CEF huge upside at 7.1%. YTD still at -13.7%
    My own portfolio
    I started the month with IOFIX+DFLEX and replaced DFLEX with JASVX+NHMAX. It’s pretty obvious that funds loaded with securitized bonds are doing well. HY Munis don’t have a momentum yet but I bought NHMAX because it’s in my taxable and it showed a better momentum than others but the last 2 days are down, I was too early but now I’m watching closely. It was another good month for me.
    FD, what is the source for the chart you posted? Many thanks.
  • Donut Day !
    @Derf,
    Linked article addresses the nature of what are commonly termed donuts. I believe these distributions are done primarily to comply with regulations imposed by either the IRS, the SEC, or likely, both. So it’s a way for investors in the funds to pay their legitimate taxes. Of course, in a tax deferred account, it doesn’t make any difference.
    Sometimes an investor will suffer a mild “panic attack” on what’s called “the record date.” That’s the date the distribution amount is drawn from funds through a reduction in NAV. Typically, investors will experience surprise at a big drop in their fund’s NAV. On the following day, however, that temporary reduction is plowed back into accounts in the form of additional shares. Bottom line: investor owns more shares but at a lower NAV. The term donut actually refers to the circuitous nature of the transaction.
    I had that happen with DODLX a week ago, a fund one wouldn’t ordinarily associate with cap gains. But it really rocked my boat when the NAV fell through the floor one day for no apparent reason. Of course, next day the $$ was back in my account via additional share purchase. Should add here that often both cap gains and normal income distributions are credited to the account on the same day. Likely, you observed some of both.
    Article
  • "Off-Topic" previously "Off Limits"... now "back in service".

    Point of order?
    Would it be permissible here to note that former President Jimmy Carter turns 96 today?
    Full Story
  • Donut Day !
    I suspect that what @Derf might actually be observing is income or dividends being paid out and than used to buy additional shares, as some funds pay out income on a quarterly basis. Technically, the payout likely occurred at the end of the day yesterday.
    In any event, Derf may be inaccurate in assuming that distribution donuts amount to extra food on the plate. In reality, the distribution in whole is extracted from the shareholder’s pie at the end of the day before it is reinvested back into the same account. So slice-to-slice, distributions shouldn’t affect the total amount of pie on the plate.
    Re: Distributions Dates: Generally the payout date for capital gains falls somewhere around the end of the quarter for those funds that have donuts to dish up. Some funds‘ distributions more closely resemble pizza than donuts, being issued only once a year - if at all. Don’t confuse distribution donuts with the income frosting most bond funds (but not all) serve up monthly or quarterly. Two different desserts.
    Me? Doesn’t make much difference. With rates so low, income funds are shucking out crumbs these days.
  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    Numbers as of 9/30/2020.
    image
    Observations for one month as of 9/30/2020:
    Multi- Flat for the month but securitized shined with 1-2.9%/
    HY Munis – Flat for the month but Nuveen (NHMAX,NVHAX) did better.
    Inter term – (-0.1%) for the month. TGLMX (mostly securitized) did 0.4%.
    Bank loans – up 0.3-4% for the month.
    Uncontrain/Nontrad -0.2 for the month. Securitized(JASVX,DFLEX)
    HY+EM – HY -0.9 and EM=-1.7% for the month with correlation to stocks.
    Corp – down month. PIGIX -0.4%.
    SP500(VFIAX)-Down monthth at -3.8, YTD=5.55%.
    PCI-CEF huge upside at 7.1%. YTD still at -13.7%
    My own portfolio
    I started the month with IOFIX+DFLEX and replaced DFLEX with JASVX+NHMAX. It’s pretty obvious that funds loaded with securitized bonds are doing well. HY Munis don’t have a momentum yet but I bought NHMAX because it’s in my taxable and it showed a better momentum than others but the last 2 days are down, I was too early but now I’m watching closely. It was another good month for me.
  • American Airlines Leaves Small Texas Company Holding The Bag On 1.7 Million Pounds Of Nuts
    An example of how Covid-19 effects continue to ripple through the economy. Forbes
    In March ... American Airlines, without notice, cancelled its order for 1.35 million bags – or 1.7 million pounds – of mixed almonds, cashews, pecans and pistachios, the much-loved mix that it had been serving warm to its premium-class passengers for more than 30 years.
    -
    Related : After posting the above, this more sobering story broke:
    Fort Worth-Based American Airlines to Cut 19,000 Jobs CNBC
    The flowers died on fields of hope
    All the way from east to west
    Where the mighty winds will blow
    I'll put my dreams to rest
    This scary monster is very much alive
    Like a hundred years ago

    From: The World We Used to Know
  • Transferring TRP Account to a Broker
    You can actually sell or buy both....it’s just you do so for different reasons. But a call gives the holder the right to buy the underlying security (if exercised)....and the put gives holder the right to sell the underlying security.
    I’m by no means an expert! And VF got me thinking about using this for income again (I have done covered-calls for several years now). But I’ve been noodling around with selling some out of the money puts (thereby “going short” on the put) on triple-digit-priced stocks for 1-6 weeks out.....hoping to not have it exercised, and it “sidelines” the money required to purchase the underlying stock, at the exercise price, for the duration that the put option is held short.
    Also, when buying calls (“going long” a call), most do this to take advantage of a price increase on the underlying stock (bullish stance) without having to put as much capital at risk (theoretically, only the cost of the call premium is put at risk). Sometimes, you can make more when a stock increases by holding the call option, depending upon maturity and how far out of the money the exercise price is. Many do not hold the option until expiration/exercise, but trade in the value of the option contract itself.
    It seems very complicated when you explain it, but if you paper traded some options (maybe on the CBOE website or something?), it makes a little bit more sense. But I have very little idea when it comes to option spreads (multiple options on the same security)....
    Sorry to hijack the thread! :)
  • Distribution Of U.S. Stock Returns In 2020
    A bird's eye view of stock market performance in 2020:
    I decided to examine year-to-date returns of every component in the S&P Total Market Index (ITOT), including large caps, mid caps, small caps, and even smaller listed companies that do not qualify for the small-cap index.
    image
    Of the nearly 3,664 listed stocks with full year 2020 returns, the median return (e.g. the 1832nd ranked return) is -14.75%. There is a large gap between the median return for U.S. stocks in 2020, and the weighted average mean performance for large cap stocks that are up between 4-5% on the year.
    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4377000-distribution-of-u-s-stock-returns-in-2020?utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&mail_subject=ploutos-distribution-of-u-s-stock-returns-in-2020&utm_campaign=rta-author-article&utm_content=link-0
  • What are your 5 or 6 largest holdings? *Or where are the bulk of your holdings?*
    @FD1000; I'm guessing you bought in around 3/25/20 ?
    Derf

    Nope, I sold over 90% at the end of 02/2020 and the rest days later.
    Made several good trades with QQQ+PCI in 03/2020.
    Start investing back in bond funds to over 99+% in 04/2020.
    I had a huge % in GWMEX for several months. I owned IOFIX only in the last several weeks.
    I wish I was brave enough to buy IOFIX on 3/25/2020. It made over 50% since then.

    How do you square owning IOFIX with your later comment in this string to avoid risky funds?
    I'm a trader and don't recommend what I do to others. My posts are generic unless someone asks me specifically about my portfolio.
    This thread isn't about avoiding risky funds. Please read the original posts "What are your 5 or 6 largest holdings? *Or where are the bulk of your holdings?"
    BTW, I don't believe in just lower risk funds, I believe in great risk/reward funds. You should look for funds that have good performance but also good risk attributes(SD, Max Draw, Sharpe, Sortino).
    For allocation my go 2 funds are:
    Moderate=PRWCX. In the last several years VLAIX is good too.
    Conservative=VWINX,VWIAX
  • What's going on at the Matthews funds?
    Not trying to pile on Matthews, because I don't currently own any of their funds, but another PM recently departed after co-managing the Pacific Tiger fund for several years. He was replaced by two people, one of whom had earlier been at Matthews but then spent a short while at Seafarer (leaving there under what looked like less than the best of circumstances). Matthews appears to be a fund company in flux right now.
    You're right SFnative. Just googled and found the article below from April 2020. Two PMs actually not mentioned in the recent articles also left earlier in the year: Lydia So who was lead pm on the Asia Small Fund and had been with the firm for 15 years based on her linkedin, and Rahul Gupta who was co manager of Pacific Tiger fund (this is the one you referenced) both left the firm in April 2020. Tiffany Hsiao actually took over Asia Small when Lydia departed before leaving herself a few months later.
    So that's 5 very senior PMs departing in the span of 6 months, plus the President/Global CIO, COO and CHRO. I see smoke!
    https://citywireusa.com/professional-buyer/news/fund-files-matthews-managers-depart-invesco-fund-under-review-after-index-error/a1354995
    https://www.linkedin.com/in/lydia-so-cfa-b9b0171b3/
  • What are your 5 or 6 largest holdings? *Or where are the bulk of your holdings?*
    @FD1000; I'm guessing you bought in around 3/25/20 ?
    Derf

    Nope, I sold over 90% at the end of 02/2020 and the rest days later.
    Made several good trades with QQQ+PCI in 03/2020.
    Start investing back in bond funds to over 99+% in 04/2020.
    I had a huge % in GWMEX for several months. I owned IOFIX only in the last several weeks.
    I wish I was brave enough to buy IOFIX on 3/25/2020. It made over 50% since then.
    How do you square owning IOFIX with your later comment in this string to avoid risky funds?
  • If you invest $750 every month for 20 years at a 7% return, how much it will be worth?
    I love these fantasyland hypothetical scenarios that presume that A. most Americans have $750 extra a month to stash in the stock market and B. that the stock market's past returns will be the same in the future. Depending on which study you believe, on the low end, 40% of Americans have less than $1,000 in liquid assets to invest: https://bankrate.com/banking/savings/financial-security-january-2020/
    But more importantly, who can say with any honesty what the next 20 years of stock performance will bring? No one.
  • What are your 5 or 6 largest holdings? *Or where are the bulk of your holdings?*
    @FD1000; I'm guessing you bought in around 3/25/20 ?
    Derf
    Nope, I sold over 90% at the end of 02/2020 and the rest days later.
    Made several good trades with QQQ+PCI in 03/2020.
    Start investing back in bond funds to over 99+% in 04/2020.
    I had a huge % in GWMEX for several months. I owned IOFIX only in the last several weeks.
    I wish I was brave enough to buy IOFIX on 3/25/2020. It made over 50% since then.
  • What are your 5 or 6 largest holdings? *Or where are the bulk of your holdings?*
    MaxFunds is too generic instead of looking at risk/reward as the best measure of funds. MFO is a fantastic source too.
    Easy example: VWENX(98 by MF) vs PRWCX(83 by MF) in the last 10 years (link)
    VWENX has a bit lower SD but PRWCX is beter for the following: performance was at 2+% annually, Worse+Best year, Sharpe+Sortino.
    ===============
    What are my 5 or 6 largest holdings?
    As a trader I use only 2-3 funds and now I have a big % in IOFIX and smaller % in JASVX+NHMAX. I could change it any week or stay with it for weeks.
  • The Fiscal Dance
    Summary
    ° Household equity allocations (as a % of household assets) are near the high end of their historical range.
    ° An analysis of corporate capital structures in terms of equity and debt, and how it changed over time.
    ° Why fiscal policy is a key variable to consider within any tactical investment framework, at this particularly juncture.
    By Lyn Alden Schwartzer at SA
  • What are your 5 or 6 largest holdings? *Or where are the bulk of your holdings?*
    While I'm a fan of using standardized periods (e.g. calendar years) for comparing funds because it prevents cherry picking, when it comes to looking at one fund's performance cherry picking may be what one wants. For example, one disregards year (and often month) boundaries when looking at max drawdowns.
    With that in mind, AKREX lost 9½% in the year spanning Feb 11, 2015 to Feb 11, 2016 roughly matching the S&P 500. FWIW, CPOAX lost 16¾% over the same 365 days.
    M* chart.
    Also, as I've said before, an unusually hot (or cold) few months for a fund can make not only its past year performance look great (or lousy), but can also skew 3, 5, and sometimes even 10 year figures.
    For example, if we back up just six months, and look at the ten year period between March 19, 2010 and March 18, 2020, we see that AKREX outperformed CPOAX. Similar result if we stick to calendar years (2010-2019). The 10 year comparison is skewed by a few months of hot performance by CPOAX.
    M* 10 year chart (ending March 18, 2020; cherry picked to filter out impact of latest hot streak)
    M* 10 year chart (2010-2019)