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Hello,
I have been using great risk reward funds since 2000 but in the last several years and especially since retirement I just sell to cash when I see extreme market conditions. It's the only sure way to protect my portfolio. When a black swan shows up is years such as 2008,2009,2020 there is no way to know what will work and what used to work before may not work in the future.
Thank you, FD1000,
I agree that each bear market is different and they are less predictable with massive quantities of stimulus. I reduce my exposure to stocks to 25% following Benjamin Graham’s guidelines late in the business cycle. MFO has been great to identify lower risk funds. I am pleased with the low downturns in my portfolio which is rising slow and steady.
Agreed there is a definite need for government assistance. Both parties are acting like spoiled children, they want what they want or will stomp their feet and go home. That being said, and as these many posts point out, people can disagree on what's "disastrously wrongheaded." I'm no expert on what the best relief/stimulus package is but I can tell you personally, firsthand that expanded unemployment absolutely does contribute to some workers not wanting to return to work in the current setting. I don't know how prevalent the issue is nationwide, but it is a real issue. I would never have believed it before, I do believe people want to work in general. Perhaps it's legitimate fear over covid exposure at work...but I can tell you that for many whose expanded unemployment had them making close to or more than they were earning at work, they would prefer to stay home. Economists can use whatever data they want to show a "thoroughly debunked myth" but ask anyone who actually employs lower wage-earners if expanded unemployment led to workers preferring to stay home and see what you hear.here is a basic econ review of the tradeoffs, sort of
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/10/opinion/trump-coronavirus-relief.html
So what we need at this time is
- drastic and disciplined behavioral policies (mandates, enforcement) to prevent disease transmission
- massive disaster relief to those harmed by the above
one-portfolio-risk-to-rule-them-allSequence risk is the risk that investment returns happen in an unlucky order. It can make or break portfolios and this post shows how to protect against it.
corporations-and-civil-disobedienceToday, Nordstrom corporate is doing all they can to get people to shop online. Meanwhile, they still pay their in-store employees on commission. Except, no one is in the store because of Covid fear-mongering and policy. Nordstrom corporate won’t change their pay policy to amend it for the new reality, and employees are suffering terribly. All employees in-store do is process returns. The overarching Covid policy combined with the corporate policy is bankrupting them.
Story Here:At the start of 2020 the big industrial economies were healthy, investors were optimistic, and West Texas Intermediate was trading at about $60 a barrel. Prices began to fall in February after the first reports of the coronavirus. That accelerated as the outbreak turned into a pandemic. By the end of March, WTI futures were at $20, the lowest they’d been since after Sept. 11. Then, after tense negotiations, the big oil producers—led by Russia, Saudi Arabia, and the U.S.—agreed to reduce production by 10% to try to stabilize prices.
Then on April 20th, 2020 oil prices sank.
Here’s how it works: Imagine a trader sees that WTI is at $10 and predicts it’s going to end the day at $5. To capitalize, he buys 50,000 barrels in the TAS market, agreeing to purchase oil at wherever the price ends up by 2:30 p.m. At the same time, he starts selling regular WTI futures: 10,000 barrels for $10 and then, if the market is falling as predicted, 10,000 more at $9, and again at $8. As the settlement window approaches, the trader accelerates his selling, offloading a further 10,000 contracts at $7, then another chunk at $6, helping push the price lower until, sure enough, it settles at $5. By now he is “flat,” meaning he’s sold as many barrels as he’s bought and isn’t obliged to take delivery of any actual oil.
The trader’s bet has come off. His profit is $150,000, the difference between what he sold oil for (50,000 barrels at prices ranging from $10 to $6, for a total of $400,000) and what he bought it for in TAS contracts (50,000 barrels at $5 a barrel, or $250,000). All of this is perfectly legal, providing the trader doesn’t deliberately try to push the closing price down to an artificial level to maximize his profits, which constitutes market manipulation under U.S. law. Manipulation can result in civil penalties such as fines or bans, or even criminal charges carrying a potential prison sentence of up to 10 years. It’s also illegal in the U.S. to place trades during or before the settlement with “intentional or reckless disregard” for the impact.
Basically if you're under 60 and healthy there's a 99% chance you'll live. As you get older the risk of death increases greatly.Additional side effects are surfacing with regard to the Pfizer vaccine that were not observed during trails (individuals with allergy sensitivities at greater risk to negative side effects). This may slow its deployment.
Allergy-risk-Pfizer-jab-TWO-patients-fall-ill
MA reporting today that 64% of all state deaths are still occurring in senior care facilities. Many of these residents leave the care facility to be treated by area hospitals and then are being sent back to the facility where special wings are being setup when possible. Contracting Covid-19 complicates the already compromised health of this population.
Using MA data, that means 36% of Covid-19 related deaths are occurring outside of these facilities. Again, do some / most of these individuals often have compromised health issues? The vaccines (with all there potential side effects) may be the best response for both of these populations.
We hear a lot about positivity rates which is important when dealing with the problem of transmission, but does anyone have numbers on the death rate of "healthy" individuals? Herd immunity...which is a thing... will play a part in this population because we mingle more in herds.
Seniors home residents seem to be our top priority going forward, then our general population that have preexisting conditions.
coronavirus & preexisting conditions
Masks, vaccines, and common sense behavior all play a part for the rest of us
As far as the economy is concerned. Senior facility have little impact. E-commerce has entered into a perfect storm and should emerge stronger than ever. Home based businesses will grow. Small businesses (in- store retail) are being tested, while big box retail gains market share. Travel and leisure businesses are in full stress test mode. For individuals whose jobs are going away we'll need re-training programs, Shifting resources toward construction and infrastructure projects would make good sense.
Thank you, FD1000,
I have been using great risk reward funds since 2000 but in the last several years and especially since retirement I just sell to cash when I see extreme market conditions. It's the only sure way to protect my portfolio. When a black swan shows up is years such as 2008,2009,2020 there is no way to know what will work and what used to work before may not work in the future.
M* site shows you several risk metrics see (this) or the old site was easier where you can compare several funds see (this)Does M* calculate fund metrics (for example risk and volatility measures or value and growth measures) themselves or is data provided by a third party?
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