The Roaring Twenties May Be Back (44 minutes)
Featured on Bloomberg recently. A half-decent, thoughtful appraisal of the current global investment climate. Yardini lays out several different scenarios going forward and offers up some “odds” on each occurring.

“Dr. Ed Yardeni is the president of Yardeni Research, Inc., a provider of global investment strategy and asset allocation analyses and recommendations. He previously served as chief investment strategist for Oak Associates, Prudential Equity Group, and Deutsche Bank's US equities division in New York City. Dr. Yardeni taught at Columbia University's Graduate School of Business and was an economist with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. He is frequently quoted in the financial press, including the Wall Street Journal, the Financial Times, the New York Times, the Washington Post, and Barron's.” Source

There’s a pretty bullish article in Barron’s this week supporting that cover (”The Next Bull Market is Here. Don’t Miss Out”). Brian Belski & Ed Yardeni are cited as proponents of the bull thesis. Of course, it’s all conjecture. But they’re putting their a** on the line to an extent. Could come back to bite them. They’re pretty good about owning up to mistakes. My take is they (Barron’s) are often very premature in their calls (about a year early with home builders) but usually get it right longer term.

Wealthtrack - 04/28/2023
We continue our interview with Ed Yardeni, an experienced economist, strategist, and Fed watcher who has been closely following the Fed throughout his 40-year investment career.
Yardeni is the author of “Fed Watching for Fun and Profit: A Primer for Investors” and head of his own global investment strategy firm, Yardeni Research. He believes that anticipating the actions of the Federal Reserve System's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is critical to successful investing.
Despite the historically aggressive pace of interest rate hikes over the past year, Yardeni thinks the Fed is done hiking interest rates for now. We will discuss whether "Don't Fight the Fed" still works as an investment strategy.

14 April, 2023 show. Ed Yardeni. investing through the present environment's cross-currents.
https://wealthtrack.com/navigating-todays-investment-crosscurrents-with-veteran-macro-strategist-ed-yardeni/

I saw that on Twitter. But +20% from the recent lows applies only to Nasdaq 100 QQQ/$NDX from the late-December lows, and not to Nasdaq Comp ONEQ/$COMPQ. Other major indexes had their lows in October and are still struggling.
Ed Yardeni, neither a perma-bull nor a perma-bear, now has 4,600 for SP500. I am watching 4,300-4,600 range myself to do some asset reallocations. https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/us-stocks-could-end-14-110609639.html

Bet against it inverse tsla if think more downtrends
#Tsls
My personal opinion is that it reached oversold states, macd crossed over, and at near 2yrs low points.... Very difficult bet against it now
Lots analyst predictions could be 200s 300s by 12 24 months. 2030 maybe near 1000 per share. Very difficult bet against best EV Company long term
So much speculation
**'*Forward PEG Ratio Valuation [Updated Dec 14, 2022]
☑️ S&P 500: 1.6
☑️ S&P 500 Tech: 1.8
Tesla
($157/$5.52)/48 = 0.59
$TSLA fair market PPS = 1.8 * 48 * $5.52 = $477 ~ 3x of current price
Ref:
https://yardeni.com/pub/spearnrevalgrpeg.pdf
$TSLA estimate was from on YF, next 5y growth of 48%***
Been adding LCID TSLA + chips-techs Small amt past weeks

Folks (not just @hank), when you quote something, or even just state a figure, please give the source. The quote above seems to have come from here:
https://lplresearch.com/2022/05/24/how-do-bonds-perform-during-and-after-equity-bear-markets/
I gave figures for 10 year Treasuries. One can't get higher grade than that. Though both longer and shorter term Treasuries are included as well in aggregate figures.
Below is the data table in the quoted piece. For many reasons (enumerated below) I discount it. The conclusion given may or may not be correct, but it is not well stated and the arithmetic is suspect.

Issues:
1. "Falling" market, as hank described it, is different from "equity bear markets", which is in the text. However, the data itself covers "Bear (And Near Bear) Markets". This fuzzy definition doubles the number of data points (increasing the number of rows from 6 to 11).
For bear markets and corrections, see p. 4 here:
https://www.yardeni.com/pub/sp500corrbeartables.pdf
2. It uses a fairly short time frame (Yogi and I provided data over twice as many years).
3. The "average" values in the chart are unweighted. A "bear-ish" market of one month 2/19/20 to 3/23/20 counts as much as a "bear-ish" market of 2½ years 3/24/2000 to 10/9/2002. Arguably weighting is incorporated by using cumulative returns (i.e. total return over each bear-ish market), but that just fixes (weights) the numerator without adjusting the denominator for the mean.
4. The medians are dubious. With 11 rows, the (unweighted) median should be the 6th highest (or 6th lowest) figure in each column. That's what is presented for the first column (1.8). But in the other columns, the median isn't a value in the column, let alone the middle one.

Dr Ed Yardeni is generally bullish but is not a perma-bull. His data oriented website has some open access. He does built his own estimates bottoms up (like Scott Black) and I find that to be useful info.

@yogibearbull and anybody else in the know,
I started coming across Ed Yardeni commentary only recently and wanted to check with the MFO community if Ed Yardeni is considered as having a bullish or a bearish bent or is it difficult to label him that way?

While the fwd P/E for small-cap (SC) R2000 has dropped dramatically, R2000 has many unprofitable companies (30-40% ?). Looking at more selective SP MC 400 and SP SC 600, those fwd P/Es have also dropped dramatically. See these charts by Yardeni via a Twitter post,
https://twitter.com/ayeshatariq/status/1538469641722413062

The Russell 2000 is a flawed benchmark.
As was mentioned, it includes many unprofitable companies since it doesn't screen for profitability.
Also, the Russell 2000 index reconstitution process enables front-running.
The S&P 600 is a better small-cap index.

While the fwd P/E for small-cap (SC) R2000 has dropped dramatically, R2000 has many unprofitable companies (30-40% ?). Looking at more selective SP MC 400 and SP SC 600, those fwd P/Es have also dropped dramatically. See these charts by Yardeni via a Twitter post,
https://twitter.com/ayeshatariq/status/1538469641722413062

This was in Barron's, 5/30/22, LINK
"ECONOMY. Soft-landing or hard-landing/recession? The economic data are pointing to SLOWDOWN – home sales, household savings, PMI, jobless claims, Atlanta Fed GDPNow, business inventories, layoffs, consumer confidence, rents/owners’-rent-equivalents. Rising fed fund RATES and QT combo will result in strong monetary tightening. A way out may be for the FED to just move its average inflation target from +2% to, say, +4%, so say several strategists and economists (YARDENI, own firm; ROMER, NYU; El-Erian, Allianz). Fed’s favorite inflation indicator PCE already lags others, and it is down to +4.9%, not far from +4%."

@shipwreckedandalone, in its Market Laboratory data tables, Barron's publishes TRAILING P/Es for indexes and the current edition has for SP500 as 25.02. I don't think Barron's presented fwd P/E for major indexes in these data tables. It does have fwd P/E for Barron's 50 weekly and that is 21.20.
But fwd P/E for SP500 is often mentioned within Barron's articles that in the current edition is 19.6 (Trader column).
M* has fwd P/E for SPY as 20.1, for VOO 19.7 (the difference not accounted by their ER difference).
Yardeni has fwd P/E for SP500 as 19.7 and also has a chart for P/E. Analysts may differ on this based on their outlook. Notably, Yardeni develops his own estimates. https://www.yardeni.com/pub/stockmktperatio.pdf

This short post by Edward Yardeni discusses how the Fed is utilizing the yield curve as it searches for the neutral rate....

What about the narrowing yield spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasuries? During the Q&A session, Powell countered that the yield spread between the 18-month forward 3-month Treasury and the current 3-month Treasury has actually steepened signaling economic growth.

Edward Yardeni

Ed Yardeni mentioned Exoskeleton Technology...very cool!
exoskeleton-and-exosuits-in-the-workplace
eksobionics
top-10-companies-in-exoskeletons-market
A fund like FSMEX may be exposed to this type of Technological Innovation.

Thanks Hank. A good interview also with Ed Yardeni on Wealthtrack who is alot more positive. Richard Bernstein is more middle of the road and favors energy and consumer staples. Always good to see different opinions

Maybe we will eventually get some lasting inflation.....

All this amounts to a backward-looking, rather than a forward-looking, monetary policy approach. Ironically, all the talking Fed heads now are saying that their “forward guidance” is no longer relevant since that was based on their outlook, which has not been relevant since the pandemic started. What matters now is the outcome, which can only be known after it happens!

Link to Yardini Blog

Worthwhile blog entry that discusses the tightening relationship between the Fed and the Treasury. Also discusses the Fed's increasing embrace of MMT.
blog.yardeni.com/2020/10/dont-fight-t-fed.html

Mr Yardeni is interviewed on WealthTrack Oct 2, 2020: