Well here we are at the end of another dreadful month. Had too many of these kinds of months this year. October didn't start to bad but finishing horribly for me.
I'm trying something different for the finish of the year. I plan to post results on M* as usual and also Armchairinvesting and Mutual Fund observer. While we all know the downside of M* discussion forum (such as unable to edit post or easily get to the last page of a thread/topic) we don't know the downside of the other forums. Armchairinvesting doesn't automatically give one notifications of post to a thread/topic or allow ability of to selectively remove oneself from notifications for a thread/topic. I have created an ID for Mutual Fund Observer but have not attempted a post there yet.
So get your results in at the end of today's close. Feel free to post on one or all three. If nothing else its giving me something to do. I am so bored with our self isolation. When will it ever end?
Rich

Key Points:
° Over the last 25 years, exceptionally outstanding fund performance nearly across the board was followed 5 years later by poor performance; this happened beginning in 2000, 2007, and 2014.
° When only a small number of funds excelled after the 2007-09 bear market, all were doing poorly by 5 years later.
° In early 2015, funds that were previously among the biggest performance winners suffered sharp dropoffs by 2020; the table below shows these funds and how badly they wound up doing.
° If these trends continue, the funds I list doing unusually well right now may not be your best choices for the next 5 years.
November Edition

What's a SPAC?

A special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) is a company with no commercial operations that is formed strictly to raise capital through an initial public offering (IPO) for the purpose of acquiring an existing company. Also known as "blank check companies," SPACs have been around for decades. In recent years, they've gone mainstream, attracting big-name underwriters and investors and raising a record amount of IPO money in 2019. In 2020, more than 50 SPACs have been formed in the U.S., as of the beginning of August, raising some $21.5 billion.

https://investopedia.com/terms/s/spac.asp
Investments in SPACs ETFs and BDCs:

I sold almost everything. My portfolio lost just -0.1% from its last top.

But you must still have taken the hit yesterday in the downdraft? How can you be sure you will buy back in at a better price than you sold? How long are you willing to be out of the market? To each his own, but given that you're almost all in bond funds (I think) how much can really be gained by market timing, even if you mostly guess right on your buys and sells? Just wondering, not criticizing,

My bond funds didn't take a hit. I had IOFIX,JASVX and HOBIX.
Below are my portfolio numbers as of yesterday from Schwab
YTD performance is 14.9%.
3 year average annually = 10.13%...SD(volatility)=2.16
In 2018 I lost less than 1% in Q4.
In 2020 I sold most of my funds in late Feb and all early in March (documented in this thread)
The key is good timing in/out + using momentum + not your usual funds + several times per year I trade riskier stuff (stocks, ETFs, CEFs, GLD, whatever) for hours-days based on technical analysis.

Greg Ostedgaard, president of Financial Professionals, Inc., and an MFO reader was on a conference call with Chuck Akre and the Akre Focus (AKREX) folks today. In that case, they announced that Mr. Akre is stepping away from day-to-day management at the end of December.
The Akre folks have been prepping for this day for years, and Mr. Akre seems comfortable that he's leaving his shareholders in good hands. I've attached our succession story, from February, for what interest it holds.
https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/2020/03/manager-changes-february-2020/
David

AllianzGI Funds:
https://us.allianzgi.com/documents/AllianzGI-Funds-2020-Capital-Gains-Distribution-Estimates-with-NAV
Liberty Street Funds: (NEW)
https://libertystreetfunds.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Liberty-Street-2020-Year-End-Capital-Gains-Estimates.pdf
DWS Funds:
https://www.dws.com/globalassets/cio/dam-us/pdfs/resources/tax-center/forms/2020-capital-gains-distributions.pdf?v=-1258172827
Vanguard Funds:
https://advisors.vanguard.com/VGApp/iip/advisor/csa/investments/taxcenter/yearenddistributions

Some slightly contrarian contextual takes here, of high-level interest perhaps:
https://humbledollar.com/2020/10/follow-the-fed/

Interesting article
1)Employment: has nothing to do with stocks. Disregard.
2+5)Inflation + Plan for higher inflation.: I don't see any inflation coming soon. Still high unemployment, Covid, big tech improve processes, globalization. Disregard
3)Expect low yields. Of course, the Fed told us that
4)Favor the middle. intermediate term bonds are where you should be long term. Disregard
6)Rethink asset location: Same old narrative. Not all bonds are treasuries. Example: PTIAX,PIMIX pay about 4% annually.
6)Stay flexible. Keep your style and why disregard. If you are buy and hold investor and it worked for you changing isn't your strength. I'm a trader for about 20 years and why flexibility works for me.
7)Avoid gold. Sure. Most should avoid other stuff such as CEFs, risk parity and other exotic funds. KISS. Use only several funds, Core funds: wide indexes, explore funds: a few managed.

Some slightly contrarian contextual takes here, of high-level interest perhaps:
https://humbledollar.com/2020/10/follow-the-fed/

VIX is one of my main criteria based on daily movements.
VIX has been elevated since early September, it finally broke above 30 and that's not a good sign.
I use other criteria relate only to my goals (low volatility and never lose more than 3% from any last top). Making 2.5 times more in 2020 than my goals and I'm fine sitting out for days.
Interest rates are inching higher since early August, they are lower for several days but I think the 10 year treasury may go higher, maybe 0.9-1%

First, I’m not trying to tout any fund. Most of my “wealth” rests with TRP for better or worse. And, heaven knows their fixed income funds don’t always shine. With munis, I didn’t see any great options to tell the truth. I do think PRIHX has potential. At this juncture, I like shorter duration bonds (lower potential gain but less interest rate risk).
“ ... its below average returns. This in turn is likely because it has one of the shortest durations of any high yield muni fund.” -
Yes - (using Yahoo) PRIHX has a duration of 4.34 years vs 7.07 years for the category average. What I want. Of course, it’s being measured against more aggressive competitors. I suspect this is a major problem in most bond rating efforts.
I don’t follow M*, but watching the Lipper scorecard, bond funds’ fortunes tend to wax and wane depending on the climate. ER - ISTM is the greatest predictor of success, all other factors being roughly equal.
“I don't see anything unwanted about Roth distributions.” -
Ahh ... Mine were all converted during retirement. There was a price paid in paying the tax as well as the hassle. To me the Roth is “the gift that keeps on giving”. All your gains remain tax free. Convert at the right time (ie: early ‘09) or goose the returns with a few good speculative plays and those untaxed gains can be considerable. Meanwhile, with a traditional IRA, not just your original (untaxed) contributions, but also all your gains - even those you’re compiling today - stand to be taxed as ordinary income at withdrawal.
Not against pulling from the Roth. But considering the trouble expended in doing the conversions and the nice tax treatment, would rather save for a rainy day.

Out of tax considerations I also decided to take a modest 2020 distribution from the Traditional side, even though that was not required in 2020. Didn’t need the money. So it went into Price’s PRIHX - a “limited term“ HY muni fund that I think is probably a better fund than M* and the others currently rate it. ... As to the tax considerations, I’d rather write the IRS a check next April 15 than have to wait in line for a tax refund. Building up the non-IRA assets may prevent having to take an unwanted withdrawal from the Roth someday

I have an inherited Roth that requires me to take unwanted distributions. The only reason why I don't want those distributions is that after sticking the money into a taxable account all the future earnings are taxable. Aside from moving money out of a tax-sheltered account, I don't see anything unwanted about Roth distributions.
It's a different question when comparing T-IRAs and Roths. There are several reasons for keeping at least some money in a T-IRA (QCDs, lower tax bracket for heirs, leave to charity, etc.) But given a choice between adding eligible money to a Roth or leaving it in a taxable account, I'm not aware of a reason to keep it in a taxable account. So I'm not clear on your thinking here.
The muni bond fund does let you escape federal taxes (it's still substantially subject to state taxes). However that comes at a cost - muni bond yields are less than taxable bond yields (which would be tax free in a Roth).
For example (this is just the first one I picked, not necessarily the best comp), RPIHX is a taxable junk bond fund with a duration of 3.58 years and an unsubsidized SEC yield of 4.94% (subsidized is 5.08%). PRIHX is a muni junk bond fund with a duration of 4.44 years and an unsubsidized SEC yield of 1.40% (subsidized is 1.84%)
Though most multi-sector funds don't hold equity worth mentioning (5%+), about 1/8 of the nearly 100 funds do. They can get a fair amount in dividends plus a small growth kicker, but at the expense of higher volatility.
When Kathleen Gaffney left Loomis Sayles, it seemed she tried to outdo her mentor Dan Fuss at LSBDX by upping the equity to 20% in Eaton Vance Bond (EVBAX). That resulted in a fund even more volatile than LSBDX.
https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/23855/wealthtrack-preview-guest-kathleen-gaffney-manager-eaton-vance-bond-fund
PRIHX appears to merit a 2* rating because of its below average returns. This in turn is likely because it has one of the shortest durations of any high yield muni fund. A problem with M*'s ranking of junk bond funds is that it groups funds together regardless of duration - no short term, intermediate term, long term breakdown. There are only five muni high junk bond funds with durations under five years. Four have 2 stars; only ISHYX which has done slightly better, has a 3* rating.

Thanks For your replies @msf and @Vegomatic. I am not at all familiar with portfolio Visualizer... I will dig in and try to learn. I am primarily looking at international multi cap - relying on the managers to choose the best spot moving forward on map size. VDIGX and VIG,SCHD are both of interest, I am screening them also - but not as replacement for international allocation . According to MFO Premium screen HEFA & Prcnx are good candidates - both lower MAXDD ( primary importance) .TBGVX was great for a long time - (still lower volatility and standard deviation - but zip on the upside and the recovery ) but of late has even underperformed other hedged funds, so it cant be just due to the hedging. I am looking at some large cap gains in my taxable account - so I sold it to harvest the loss - I can of course get back in after 31 days - all advice welcome - many thanks

I think "Best" is only relevant to each individual investors portfolio criteria for what purpose/role an individual investor is attempting to fill in their portfolio. Portfolio criteria can vary widely, based on age, risk metrics, total return metrics, etc.

Yeah - That was my reaction as well. While an interesting discussion here, the topic is a little “nuts-o” when you think about it. The topic narrows it down only to “taxable” bond funds. :)
The chart is cool and gets specific. I’ll confess to generally being fog-bound with regards to bond funds anyhow. RPISX is probably listed as a bond fund, but I beg to disagree owing to its 5-25% allowable weighting in an equity fund. Also, its “bond” holdings, ranging from EM to Treasuries are so diverse as to demand a more specific moniker than simply “bond fund.”
Another consideration in the overall equation here: Some investors find value in sticking with only one or a few houses. In that case, they may be “comfy“ in settling for only “third best” or “fifth best” fund in any particular category of fund. And, as has no doubt already been mentioned, various economic forces at work at any one time can greatly lend favor to or create havoc for virtually any bond fund, regardless of name, management or style.
FWIW - I closed out long held RPSIX today. Not only has it stunk up the joint in recent years, but its diverse holdings no longer fill my perceived portfolio needs. I’d rather today hold generally short term and / or high quality bond holdings as a stabilizing influence in the portfolio rather than seeking growth or high income with such a broadly diverse “income“ fund. The small remaining amount was moved into their .25% ER index bond fund PBDIX, which I’ve held for about a year. Why bonds over cash? IMHO they would act more like a hedge against rapidly falling equity prices - if only temporarily.
Out of tax considerations I also decided to take a modest 2020 distribution from the Traditional side, even though that was not required in 2020. Didn’t need the money. So it went into Price’s PRIHX - a “limited term“ HY muni fund that I think is probably a better fund than M* and the others currently rate it. It appears almost stable enough to use as a cash alternative (not recommended however).
Part of my thinking on munis - No matter which side wins the election, municipalities and states will eventually get some federal help. (But still waiting for my official “Oracle“ license to arrive in the mail.) :) As to the tax considerations, I’d rather write the IRS a check next April 15 than have to wait in line for a tax refund. Building up the non-IRA assets may prevent having to take an unwanted withdrawal from the Roth someday (which is now near 70% of invested assets).

I don't look at M* ratings by category (Medal ratings) as a significant criteria for determining "Best" Bond funds. I think "Best" is only relevant to each individual investors portfolio criteria for what purpose/role an individual investor is attempting to fill in their portfolio. Portfolio criteria can vary widely, based on age, risk metrics, total return metrics, etc. and you may reach a different conclusion if you are a trader, a buy and holder, and how important longer term total return performance is likely to repeat itself going forward. I am a preservation of principal investor in my retirement years, but I do look for enough total return to offset RMDs annually, and to hopefully increase my overall principal amount each year. I am on the sidelines right now, with a nominal positive year in total return, but I choose to wait and see how this election is going to play out, how this Covid 19 pandemic will be addressed, and then sort through total return and risk information in the latter part of 2020, and early part of 2021, and build back my portfolio going forward. M* medal ratings will have minimal importance to me in my investing decisions.

Charles Schwab to Cut 1,000 Jobs in TD Ameritrade Integration
The move will trim the combined workforce by about 3%, San Francisco-based Schwab said Monday in a statement. The cuts are part of an effort to reduce “overlapping or redundant roles.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-27/charles-schwab-to-cut-1-000-jobs-in-td-ameritrade-integration?srnd=premium&sref=368neHRO

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/26/ant-group-to-raise-tktk-billion-in-biggest-ipo-of-all-time.html
"Ant Group would raise $34.5 billion in its dual initial public offering after setting the price for its shares on Monday, making it the biggest listing of all time.....The Chinese financial technology giant previously said it would split its stock issuance equally across Shanghai and Hong Kong, issuing 1.67 billion new shares in each location.....the largest IPO of all time, putting it ahead of previous record holder Saudi Aramco, which raised just over $29 billion.....Ant’s valuation based on the pricing would be $313.37 billion, larger than some of the biggest banks in the U.S., including Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo....."

VIX closed over 30 means I got to sell some, so I sold 50% of my portfolio which was in IOFIX. If VIX goes back under 30 I will buy it again.
It's probably just a temporary spike but I have got very little to lose. I'm already at 15% for 2020 + only one down week at -0.3% (I write down weekly results every weekend).

Hi, Crash.
My dirty take: https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/2020/10/harbor-global-leaders-investor-hggix/.

I believe the age for distributions has been moved up. I got screwed again !

Not as much as you think.
Someone born between Jan and June in 1951 would have been required to start their RMDs in 2021 (age 70.5). Now they can start in 2023 (age 72). Two years grace. Same two year grace for anyone born between Jan and June in years after 1951.
Someone born between July and Dec in 1950 would have been required to start their RMDs in 2021 (age 71). Now they can start in 2022 (age 72). That's only one year's grace. Same one year grace for anyone born between July and Dec in years after 1950.
Someone born between Jan and June 1950 would have been required to start their RMDs in 2020. Now they can start in 2022 (age 72). That's still two extra years, though one of those is coming from the fact that no one has to take RMDs this year.
Someone born between July and Dec 1949 would have been required to start their RMDs in 2020 (age 71). Now they can start in 2021 (age 72). So they're also getting one year of grace, though that is coming from the 2020 waiver, even without the age extension.
Someone born before July 1949 gets a year of grace (2020) not because of the change in RMD age but because everyone is excused this year. So they're also getting one year of grace.
In short, these "oldsters" get a one year break. That's the same amount as those born between July and December of any year from 1949 on, and just one year less than the two years anyone born between Jan and June from 1950 on get.
People born late 1949 are the ones who should be complaining. They're covered by the extension to age 72, but that doesn't get them even a single year extension.

@catch22 ...A 3 or 4 year plan to rebuild a house on the cheap, in the Philippines, on the lot my wife's family owns. Her cousin and brothers will get it done. The lion's share of everything we have invested has always been in T-IRA. The allocation and location of the money (taxable or tax-sheltered accounts) has never been ideal. The initial amounts were dropped in my lap, unscheduled, at the passing of family members, while I was still working. So, I dumped the money in T-IRA and grabbed the deduction, at the time. So, the plan is to take only profit, not bite into the balance in the T-IRA, and redeploy it in a taxable account, in order to grow it, over that 3 or 4-year time period. We are in the 10% bracket and don't have to worry about taxes on cap gains/dividends, as long as we are not stupid with the money. Wife still works, under the table. I get decent retirement income. Spacing the withdrawals seems the way to go. We won't have to face the taxes this way, and the $$$ will grow in the new account, hopefully. Right now, the Fed is backstopping everything. I appreciate your interest. :)