Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Rotation from growth to value
    This gentleman opines:
    "The "great rotation" doesn't have to be all that great. In other words, when investors do see a rotation, it may not necessarily mean that all large-cap growth or the "Big 5," i.e. FAAMG, need to be sold.
    It could simply mean that large-cap growth and Tech and many of the names seeing multiple expansion with the COVID-19 lockdown spend a year consolidating the gains of the last 4-5 years, as the underperforming styles and sector laggards like Financials and Energy play a little catch-up."
    Style-Box Strategy Update: The Great Rotation Begins
  • Rotation from growth to value
    Here is one prognosticator's thinking about the durability of the recent value bump.
    Notably, the rotation to "value" is likely premature as these companies specifically require a more robust economy to generate revenue and earnings growth. The current environment is not conducive to that. Expect a reversal of the trade soon, and money rotates back towards "pandemic" related companies.
    image
    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4389100-market-breaks-out-on-vaccine-hopes-cases-surge
    But, at least for a short time FMIJX and some other funds with a value tilt have shown some some signs of life!
  • LLSCX (Longleaf Partners Smallcap) spike in July 2020?
    LLSCX had a tremendous spike at the end of July 2020; on 7/28/2020 the NAV was 20.03 and on 7/29/2020 it was 29.39. Up by almost 50% in one day! Does anyone know what happened? It looks like an anomalous pricing of an underlying asset which quickly reverted to the mean. If it was a reverse share split it shouldn't have reverted so quickly. Within a few days it was back down into the low 20s.
  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    image
    Semi-month update for limited funds
    Observations for one month as of 11/14/2020:

    Rates for 5-10 year Treasury went up in the last month
    Bonds: Surprisingly, it was good for all the above funds. Several funds in Multi, Non Trad, HY muni, EM, Bank Loans, HY, Proffered made over 1%. Even higher-rated bond funds were up too.
    Stocks: did well but QQQ was down after a very strong YTD
    My own portfolio
    In the last week of October I sold most of my portfolio for the third time this year. When VIX goes above 30-35 and both stocks+most bonds categories are going down it’s a good sign for me to sell. I bought back (IOFIX,JASVX) at 99+% at the beginning of the month. YTD: so far it's the best risk-adjusted return I have ever had.
  • Palm Valley Capital (PVCMX) is live at Schwab
    Mr. Cinnamond just dropped a note, letting me know that they'd succeeded in getting placed on Schwab. No-load, NTF with a $100 minimum.
    Assets have been growing slowly, and they're nearly $20 million according to Morningstar. They had a surge of buying during the spring panic but the rebound has forced them back to the sidelines. At the moment, about 25% small cap value, 25% T-bills and 45% cash. Mr. Cinnamond reports that "we continue to find value in areas that carry elevated career risk for most managers, like energy. So we're keeping busy even though small caps on average remain expensive, in our opinion." Up about 16% YTD (pretty much first in its category) but only 0.3% in the last three months (pretty much last in its category).
    As to energy: 24% of the fund's equity exposure is energy compared with 2% for its peers. The biggest position is Helmerich & Payne. The firm owns a fleet of oil drill rigs. Natural Gas Services Group, which rents and services compressors, is the second largest energy holding.
    As ever,
    David
  • Industry Veterans Lydia So and Karl R. S. Engelmann Join Rondure Global Advisors
    From an email I received today from Rondure Global Advisors:
    Dear Investor,
    We are pleased to announce Rondure Global Advisors recently added two industry veterans to the team. Lydia So, CFA joins Rondure as a portfolio manager for the Rondure New World Fund (RNWOX) after having spent the past 15 years with Matthews Asia, managing portfolios since 2008. She will have a secondary focus on developed markets outside the US. Karl R.S. Engelmann, a 27-year industry veteran, also recently joined the Rondure Global team as a Senior Vice President of Client Service and Business Development after having spent the past 18 years with Cambiar Investors. He will be responsible for maintaining client relationships and building new relationships in the institutional, bank trust, and retail channels for Rondure.
    Said Rondure Global Founder and CEO, Laura Geritz, CFA, “We are thrilled to have two incredibly talented industry veterans join Rondure at such an exciting time in our growth as a firm. Lydia brings tremendous depth of experience in international and emerging markets and shares a similar investment approach that will greatly enhance our quality of research and strengthen our team. Likewise, Karl brings similar depth to the business side of the firm with significant experience in building lasting relationships across all channels. Both Lydia and Karl will be an integral part of the continued growth of the firm and I am excited to work alongside both of them.”
    Ms. Lydia So shared, “I am thrilled to join this great organization alongside high caliber people in such a collegial environment. Laura and I share the same investment philosophy and passion for uncovering opportunities anywhere in the world. I believe that an active, all-cap, unconstrained approach is to key to generating long-term success. I look forward to contributing to Rondure and driving long-term results for our clients.”
    Mr. Engelmann stated, “I have a great admiration for Rondure’s long-term and disciplined investment approach in finding quality compounders and in the firm's unwavering commitment to clients to deliver a consistent strategy over time. I look forward to helping with Rondure’s continued growth and developing great long-term relationships with our clients.”​
    Please click here to read the full release. If you have any questions, please feel free to contact us.
    https://www.rondureglobal.com/documents/rondureglobal-pr-20201112.pdf
    Sincerely,​
    Crystal Gourley
    Head of Sales and Client Relations
    Rondure Global Advisors
    136 S. Main Street, Suite 720
    Salt Lake City, Utah 84101
    801.736.8555
    [email protected]
    The objective of both the Rondure New World Fund and Rondure Overseas Fund is long-term growth of capital. ​
    RISKS: Mutual fund investing involves risks and loss of principal is possible. Investing in foreign securities entails special risks, such as currency fluctuations and political uncertainties, which are described in more detail in the prospectus. Investments in emerging markets are subject to the same risks as other foreign securities and may be subject to greater risks than investments in foreign countries with more established economies and securities markets. ​
    An investment in the Rondure Funds involves risk, including loss of principal. An investor should consider objectives, risks, charges, and expenses carefully before investing. To obtain a prospectus containing this and other information, visit www.rondurefunds.com or call 1-855-755-3337. Please read it carefully before investing.
    ​Wasatch Advisors is not affiliated with Rondure Global Advisors.

    Rondure Global Advisors and Wasatch Advisors are not affiliated with ALPS Distributors, Inc. Rondure Funds are distributed by ALPS Distributors, Inc. ("ADI"). Crystal Gourley and Karl Engelmann are registered representatives of ADI.
    ​RON000339 exp. 11/12/2022
  • Roth IRA- Preferred buying and holdings-Owners in their 80's
    Roth money is often mentioned as the last pool of money that one should draw from.

    If you often spend more money in your early days of retirement, would you not want to draw on Roth vs traditional to not realize the income for tax purposes?
    I personally agree that taxes matter. I presently try to manage my taxable withdrawal verses tax free withdrawals to stay below (or at) the 12% tax bracket. Roth withdrawals have the advantage of being a tax free withdrawal.
    Even if one does not need income (equivalent to the 12% threshold) it seems to me that Roth conversions (up to the 12% threshold) make good sense as well. They my be the lowest rates we ever experience going forward.
    For 2020 the 12% threshold:
    Single = $40,125
    Joint = $80,250
    H of H = $53,700
  • Seeking Yield With Safety
    @FD1000
    I'm not a long term holder but a trader and avoided the big losses of March 2020.
    Were they really big losses?
    If you had instead, not sold and just held your positions the draw down for JASVX was 6% in March of 2020. By May of 2020 you would have recovered from that loss without timing the market.
    Had you been taking monthly withdrawals, those withdrawals would have been impacted slightly over 2 months. Having a 3-6 month cash position for withdrawals would solve that problem.
    To be fair, IOFIX and SEMMX have yet to recover. Owning these two funds (that exhibit deep draw downs and slow recovers) may not the best choice for those seeking "yield with safety". I learn this the hard way owning THOPX.
    JASVX - Hindsight is a great thing when you can look back until today :-)
    I have used PIMIX until 01/2018, SEMMX for most of 2018 and then IOFIX in 2019+2020. HOBIX,JASVX are funds I started using in 2020.
    The above are all mentioned on my thread (link)
    JASVX - at least one of the managers came from SEMMX but it did much better than SEMMX. I love fresh new funds where the managers can do better.
    These funds can have very good risk/reward for months, even years, until markets are volatile and why I exit. VIX > 35-40 is a good indicator of that.
  • Rotation from growth to value
    Interesting Week:
    The ten worst-performing stocks this year through November 8 were up an average of 23% on Monday and Tuesday!
    cws-market-review-november-9-2020
  • Rotation from growth to value
    There’s a growth vs value chart in the link that I find fascinating. It shows that as of 11/11/20, on a one-year basis, the growth fund IVW has outpaced the value fund IVE by close to the extreme for the last 20 years. A spread of 34.2% . (!). No thoughts on when that might revert.
    The Capital Speculator
    What happened today? The markets never move in a straight line.
  • Resolute Investment Managers, Inc. exercising option in ARK ETF TRUST
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1579982/000110465920123650/tm2035586-1_497.htm
    497 1 tm2035586-1_497.htm 497
    ARK ETF TRUST
    ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK)
    ARK Genomic Revolution ETF (ARKG)
    ARK Autonomous Technology & Robotics ETF (ARKQ)
    ARK Next Generation Internet ETF (ARKW)
    The 3D Printing ETF (PRNT)
    ARK Israel Innovative Technology ETF (IZRL)
    ARK Fintech Innovation ETF (ARKF)
    Supplement dated November 10, 2020 to the Prospectus for the ARK ETF Trust dated November 30, 2019, as supplemented.
    This Supplement updates certain information contained in the Prospectus with respect to each of the following series of the ARK ETF Trust: ARK Innovation ETF, ARK Genomic Revolution ETF, ARK Autonomous Technology & Robotics ETF, ARK Next Generation Internet ETF, The 3D Printing ETF, ARK Israel Innovative Technology ETF and ARK Fintech Innovation ETF (collectively, “Funds”). You may obtain copies of each Fund’s Summary Prospectus, Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information free of charge, upon request, by calling toll-free 855-406-1506, sending an email request to [email protected], or by writing to ARK Investment Management, LLC, 3 East 28th Street, Seventh Floor, New York, New York 10016.
    Effective immediately, the Prospectus is revised as follows:
    On page 70, the first paragraph of the section “Management of the Funds” is deleted and replaced with the following:
    Investment Adviser. ARK Investment Management LLC, located at 3 East 28th, Seventh Floor, New York, NY 10016, serves as the Funds’ investment adviser. The Adviser registered with the SEC in January 2014. Under the terms of an investment advisory agreement between the Trust and the Adviser with respect to each Fund (“Advisory Agreement”), the Adviser serves as the adviser to each Fund, subject to the general supervision of the Board, and is responsible for the day-to-day investment management of each Fund. Pursuant to the terms of an agreement between the Adviser and Resolute Investment Managers, Inc. (“Resolute"), Resolute acquired a minority investment in the Adviser in July 2016 as well as an option to purchase a controlling voting and equity interest in the Adviser (such option exercise and purchase is referred to as the “transaction”) that is exercisable in early 2021. On October 29, 2020, Resolute notified the Adviser that it intends to exercise that option and delivered documentation with respect to the transaction. If the option is exercised in its current form, the closing of the transaction would result in an “assignment” of the Advisory Agreement for purposes of the 1940 Act and, therefore, its automatic and immediate termination. As a result, in connection with any exercise of the option resulting in a change of control of the Adviser, the Adviser anticipates submitting a new investment advisory agreement to the Board and the shareholders of each Fund for approval in accordance with the procedural and other requirements of the 1940 Act, and that new agreement would become effective upon the closing of the transaction. There is no guarantee that the option will be exercised in its current form (or at all), that any change in control of the Adviser will occur or that the Board or the shareholders of any Fund would approve a new investment advisory agreement.
    Please retain this supplement for future reference.
  • Seeking Yield With Safety
    @FD1000
    I'm not a long term holder but a trader and avoided the big losses of March 2020.
    Were they really big losses?
    If you had instead, not sold and just held your positions the draw down for JASVX was 6% in March of 2020. By May of 2020 you would have recovered from that loss without timing the market.
    Had you been taking monthly withdrawals, those withdrawals would have been impacted slightly over 2 months. Having a 3-6 month cash position for withdrawals would solve that problem.
    To be fair, IOFIX and SEMMX have yet to recover. Owning these two funds (that exhibit deep draw downs and slow recovers) may not the best choice for those seeking "yield with safety". I learn this the hard way owning THOPX.
  • Seeking Yield With Safety
    Yep, I have been using Fidelity CC 2% cash back and Penfed CC 5% cash back on all gas for years. We charge all we can from $1 to paying our property taxes with no additional fees.
    But, that's not really the subject of this thread :-)
    As part of my goals and style I mainly use bond funds + trading on momentum. I'm concentrated on total returns and not higher income but I have noticed that I used funds such as PIMIX for years until 01/2018 and since then SEMMX,IOFIX,EIXIX,HOBIX,JASVX and they pay at least 4%. I'm not a long term holder but a trader and avoided the big losses of March 2020.
  • Wealthtrack - Weekly Investment Show - with Consuelo Mack
    Hey folk!
    I thought this one was good. I’ve been meaning to re-listen and take notes.
    October 21, 2020

    Value Investors Dream Markets https://youtu.be/TzRtZ292_7w
  • an economic dream scenario next year?
    Tim Duy (an economist mostly known for his Fed Watch blog) thinks the economy is set to boom in 2021. Not sure of the investment implications (if true, the Fed may need to raise interest rates sooner than currently thought) but it sure is different from how I had been thinking of things.
  • Futures jump with news on vaccine for covid (news link from CNBC)
    Exclusive: Europe to pay less than U.S. for Pfizer's German BioNTech vaccine under initial deal
    By Francesco Guarascio, Reuters - 9:56 AM ET 11/11/2020
    BRUSSELS (Reuters) - The European Union has struck a deal to initially pay less for Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine candidate than the United States, an EU official told Reuters as the bloc announced on Wednesday it had secured an agreement for up to 300 million doses.
    The experimental drug, developed in conjunction with Germany's BioNTech , is the frontrunner in a global race to produce a vaccine, with interim data released on Monday showing it was more than 90% effective at protecting people from COVID-19 in a large-scale clinical trial..
    Under the EU deal, 27 European countries could buy 200 million doses, and have an option to purchase another 100 million.
    The bloc will pay less than $19.50 per shot, a senior EU official involved in talks with vaccine makers told Reuters, adding that partly reflected the financial support given by the EU and Germany for the drug's development.
    The official requested anonymity as the terms of the agreement are confidential.
  • Gold Prices Fall By Most In 3 Months on Covid Vaccine News
    In its latest Form 13F filing, Warren Buffet invested $597,856,475 in Barrick gold (miner stock). His investment is evolving as many of decision are made by his successors.
    https://forbes.com/sites/robertberger/2020/08/28/warren-buffetts-gold/?sh=24cebf506a63
  • Seeking Yield With Safety
    @msf
    Thank you for this clarification. I was including capital gains. Here is my source.
    https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/GAVIX/dividends/scorecard