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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    wxman: "GIBLX hasn't really "cooled off." It is a bond fund, and a darn good one
    From the end of March 2020 to August 7, GIBLX had a steady increase in total return, with no downturns. From August 7 to the end of October, Giblx had a small downturn and did not get back to its August high until close to the end of October. Since the end of October to the end of November, Giblx had another uptick. From a "trading" standpoint, I considered the 3 month period of flat/negative performance as "cooling off". If you are not a trader, but more of a buy and holder, then you have a different set of criteria for total return performance.
  • Janet Yellen supposedly Biden's pick for Treasury Secretary
    @wxman123
    As for the coal minor, sure, a comparatively small industry, but one that is directly affected by the new green movement. Every life matters, right?
    Not apparently the thousands--soon to be millions--already displaced as climate refugees from their homes or apparently the sea otter to you. And of course there's the sheer absurdity of your assuming that reducing fossil fuel dependence and carbon emissions only destroys jobs and won't create any simultaneously. Reducing the world's carbon footprint will be an immense task that will create more jobs certainly than it destroys in the already moribund coal industry. But as I said previously and I maintain, none of this really matters to you. You know the science is true and the impact will be severe but just don't care.
    More "meaningless" science-y stuff: https://scientificamerican.com/article/would-a-green-new-deal-add-or-kill-jobs1/
    We estimate that the more conservative $25 carbon tax would boost U.S. employment by 1.4 million jobs each year between 2020 and 2030, which is nearly a 1 percent increase above the reference–case forecast of 160 million jobs in 2030. As the economy expands and the tax increases, job growth from the GND [i.e., Green New Deal] would accelerate, creating, on average, 3.4 million new jobs each year between 2040 and 2050—a nearly 2 percent increase above the 182 million jobs forecast for the U.S. in 2050. Overall, it is estimated that 72 million job years would be created over the three decades with a $25 carbon tax. (Note that if one job continues after one year for another 12 months, it represents two job years.)
    With the more aggressive $60 carbon tax, U.S. employment would still exceed the reference-case forecast, but the increase would be less than that of the $25 tax. The higher tax causes much larger supply-side job losses, but they are still smaller than the gains in energy-efficiency jobs motivated by higher energy prices. Overall, 35 million job years would be created between 2020 and 2050, with net job increases in almost all regions.
    According to the latest data, in 2018 about 9.2 million Americans (5.7 percent of the U.S. workforce of roughly 162 million at the time) were employed in an energy industry. Nearly half of these jobs (about 4.3 million) made up the traditional supply-oriented categories: fuels, including petroleum, natural gas, coal and woody biomass (1.1 million); electric power generation (900,000); and transmission, distribution and storage (2.3 million). The motor-vehicle-related industries employed 2.5 million, and energy efficiency employed 2.4 million.
    The GND would cause traditional supply-oriented jobs to decrease, but energy-efficiency jobs would more than compensate for the losses. New jobs from energy-efficiency investments would be significant, totaling 1.8 million in 2030 and 4.2 million in 2050. These estimates reflect the labor-intensity of jobs in construction, which account for more than half of the energy-efficiency workforce in 2018. Other large gains would be associated with heating, ventilation, air-conditioning and refrigeration systems—the largest share of energy-efficiency investments in the residential and commercial sectors. In industry, the greatest investments estimated would be in energy and environmental management and smart controls, followed by industrial-machinery manufacturing such as that of high-efficiency motors and variable-speed drives. The result would be job growth across all nine Census divisions of the U.S., in all three decades with a $25 carbon tax. The $60 tax would boost job growth in the U.S. overall and across a majority of its nine Census divisions and three decades.
  • Janet Yellen supposedly Biden's pick for Treasury Secretary
    How many people did the U.S. coal mining industry employ in 2019? 53,000. https://statista.com/statistics/215790/coal-mining-employment-in-the-us/
    How many people are employed in the retail service sector: 9.8 million.
    https://census.gov/library/stories/2020/09/profile-of-the-retail-workforce.html
    Yet guys like wxman123 and our soon to be ex-president wax poetic about the poor coal miners while millions in retail are struggling to stay afloat because of Amazon and covid. You know what the difference is? This is who the retail sector employs--not the Fox News demographic--according to the Census bureau:
    Retail workers are younger. Over half of all retail workers were ages 16 to 34.
    Women were more likely to work in retail jobs. About 56.5% of retail workers were women, compared with 43.5% who were men.
    Blacks and Hispanics were overrepresented in retail work. Blacks comprised 12.5% of the retail workforce compared to 11.4% of the total workforce; Hispanics were 18.7% and 17.5%, respectively.
    But oh, the poor coal miners! The symbolism is perfect to stoke that tribalistic white nationalist animosity because 91% of coal miners are white males, and only 0.9% are black: https://bls.gov/cps/cpsaat18.htm They are being replaced by technology regardless whether we have a green new deal or not. Meanwhile, the retail workforce is being decimated by Covid: https://cnbc.com/2020/07/22/coronavirus-retail-workforce-faces-permanent-decline.html
    We finally agree on something. Covid, and, more accurately stated, the overblown and ineffective response, is decimating not only the retail industry, but also travel, food and beverage, personal care, etc. As is my point on climate, the cure cannot be worse than the disease. That clearly has been the case with Covid. As for the coal minor, sure, a comparatively small industry, but one that is directly affected by the new green movement. Every life matters, right? That said, if I bought your premise that shutting down American energy independence is needed to save the planet, I can get on board with that. But it probably isn't and won't even if it is.
  • Janet Yellen supposedly Biden's pick for Treasury Secretary
    >> What sacrifices do we need to make to save that half a degree?
    You write as though you keep up, but it is clear you do not, not really. There is a lot of work out there, hardcore practical effective proposals, a lot of them by your mocked academics, covering what is entailed to effect such a huge course alteration as a half a degree.
    You must have read, while worrying about working coalminers (of whom there are very very few), and about John Kerry's lifestyle indicating what, hypocrisy? seriously? Kerry?, about the temperature point (which is close, meaning not that far off) at which human life becomes nearly impossible.
    >> How about moving north?
    Oh, go for it.
    Eventually, and not so far off either, those forests will burn every summer too.
    Or ... get hep to renewables and feasible policy:
    https://blogs.imf.org/2020/10/07/finding-the-right-policy-mix-to-safeguard-our-climate/
    I am fascinated that someone literate and thoughtful-sounding falls back on the tiredest of Fox editorials:
    \\\ ... causing substantial damage to the environment and people in other respects? This is the real and fair debate among knowledgeable people,

    Yes, there absolutely is real discussion of trades. Moneys for retraining. Serious moneys. Disaster relief. Can you cite the debates you think are most informed or fairminded or interesting or promising?
    \\\ and to deny it makes you the ignorant one.
    You probably had best not go there, honestly, and not just with LB.
    \\\ Some honest and good people do care about an entire industry and its workers being told to shut down. If your brother, son, daughter or best friend made their living as a coal minor or working an oil rig I think you would see this point.
    Again, best not to personalize or go to anecdote.
    There is no helping coalminers or rig workers no matter what anyone does or what policies are adopted. Everybody but you and the most extreme of rightwingers know that --- National Review, the industries themselves, any of the candidates except for the departing pantsloaded infant. 'See this point'? What point would that be? Have you followed (e.g.) coal trends and the data over the last decades ?
    These are old and tired arguments, from the 1970s, as though you are 95yo and just waking up and never read the number-crunching.
    \\\ I doubt you know any of those types.
    oh, here we go. You probably also do not want to turn this into some blue-collar cred thing either, not if you want to present as thoughtful. It's not like a Clifford Odets play from 1934.

    You are one angry man. Retraining? You go for that. Your long drone did not identify a single thing to save that half a degree nor explain how deals drawn up by elite hypocrites in Europe are going to prevent those in the rapidly expanding developing world from spewing smoke and driving in their gas-powered vehicles for years to come, and it's a good thing too or else they might burn up on the spot according to you. It's cool and all to have new age green ideas, even for a probable old white guy like you, but you still haven't explained what should be done that's preferable to what is already being done, like better emission controls, clean coal, etc. I simply don't agree that extreme measures like banning fracking and giving up American energy independence will benefit our country and, despite hopes and dreams, will not even save that half a degree.
  • S&P 500 and it's new Addition -Tesla
    Wall Street’s 3 Most Hated Stocks
    It’s no secret that “hedgies” and “sophisticated” investors have been shorting Tesla for several years. You’d think they’d have lost their britches by now.
  • Janet Yellen supposedly Biden's pick for Treasury Secretary
    How many people did the U.S. coal mining industry employ in 2019? 53,000. https://statista.com/statistics/215790/coal-mining-employment-in-the-us/
    How many people are employed in the retail service sector: 9.8 million.
    https://census.gov/library/stories/2020/09/profile-of-the-retail-workforce.html
    Yet guys like wxman123 and our soon to be ex-president wax poetic about the poor coal miners while millions in retail are struggling to stay afloat because of Amazon and covid. You know what the difference is? This is who the retail sector employs--not the Fox News demographic--according to the Census bureau:
    Retail workers are younger. Over half of all retail workers were ages 16 to 34.
    Women were more likely to work in retail jobs. About 56.5% of retail workers were women, compared with 43.5% who were men.
    Blacks and Hispanics were overrepresented in retail work. Blacks comprised 12.5% of the retail workforce compared to 11.4% of the total workforce; Hispanics were 18.7% and 17.5%, respectively.
    But oh, the poor coal miners! The symbolism is perfect to stoke that tribalistic white nationalist animosity because 91% of coal miners are white males, and only 0.9% are black: https://bls.gov/cps/cpsaat18.htm They are being replaced by technology regardless whether we have a green new deal or not. Meanwhile, the retail workforce is being decimated by Covid: https://cnbc.com/2020/07/22/coronavirus-retail-workforce-faces-permanent-decline.html
  • Janet Yellen supposedly Biden's pick for Treasury Secretary
    >> What sacrifices do we need to make to save that half a degree?
    You write as though you keep up, but it is clear you do not, not really. There is a lot of work out there, hardcore practical effective proposals, a lot of them by your mocked academics, covering what is entailed to effect such a huge course alteration as a half a degree.
    You must have read, while worrying about working coalminers (of whom there are very very few), and about John Kerry's lifestyle indicating what, hypocrisy? seriously? Kerry?, about the temperature point (which is close, meaning not that far off) at which human life becomes nearly impossible.
    >> How about moving north?
    Oh, go for it.
    Eventually, and not so far off either, those forests will burn every summer too.
    Or ... get hep to renewables and feasible policy:
    https://blogs.imf.org/2020/10/07/finding-the-right-policy-mix-to-safeguard-our-climate/
    I am fascinated that someone literate and thoughtful-sounding falls back on the tiredest of Fox editorials:
    \\\ ... causing substantial damage to the environment and people in other respects? This is the real and fair debate among knowledgeable people,

    Yes, there absolutely is real discussion of trades. Moneys for retraining. Serious moneys. Disaster relief. Can you cite the debates you think are most informed or fairminded or interesting or promising?
    \\\ and to deny it makes you the ignorant one.
    You probably had best not go there, honestly, and not just with LB.
    \\\ Some honest and good people do care about an entire industry and its workers being told to shut down. If your brother, son, daughter or best friend made their living as a coal minor or working an oil rig I think you would see this point.
    Again, best not to personalize or go to anecdote.
    There is no helping coalminers or rig workers no matter what anyone does or what policies are adopted. Everybody but you and the most extreme of rightwingers know that --- National Review, the industries themselves, any of the candidates except for the departing pantsloaded infant. 'See this point'? What point would that be? Have you followed (e.g.) coal trends and the data over the last decades ?
    These are old and tired arguments, from the 1970s, as though you are 95yo and just waking up and never read the number-crunching.
    \\\ I doubt you know any of those types.
    oh, here we go. You probably also do not want to turn this into some blue-collar cred thing either, not if you want to present as thoughtful. It's not like a Clifford Odets play from 1934.
  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    FD: "But I understand what you do and it suits your style"
    I did quite a bit of trading this year, but limited my trading to more risk averse trades, consistent with my rather conservative Retirement objectives--bought GIBLX in a trade this year and was very pleased with its performance until it cooled off. I hope to return to my preferred investing approach for the remainder of 2020 and 2021--trying to select solid bond oefs, that I hope to hold for longer periods. IOFIX and SEMMX may be good for traders, but they would not fit my more risk averse fund selection criteria. I am trusting that VCFIX will return to its lower risk days going forward, but that is just my optimistic projection, based on what I have seen from it in the last 6 months. Schwab's embracing of it in their Select Fund lists, is reassuring to me and my approach to fund selection. I wish you continued success with your trading and look forward to following how that is working out for you.
  • Pension Funds are Still Struggling
    Bloomberg Opinion Piece:
    Every silver lining has a cloud. Stock markets’ recovery since March has been prodigious. Now the notion of a reflationary 2021 is turning into a new orthodoxy. But the combination of events in the last few months has been toxic for some of the crucial building blocks of the financial system that was already in trouble — pensions.
    image
    Article Link:
    https://bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-12-03/there-s-a-toxic-cloud-behind-the-stock-recovery
  • S&P 500 and it's new Addition -Tesla
    Top 3 Mutual Fund Holders of Tesla (TSLA)
    4-mutual-funds-hold-tesla-stock
    S&P 500 Forecast: How Will the Addition of Tesla Impact the Index?
    SP-500-Forecast-How-Will-the-Addition-of-Tesla-Impact-the-Index
    @MikeM2,
    ETFs prepare for balancing act as Elon Musk’s Tesla joins S&P 500:
    S&P still hasn’t announced what stock Tesla will be replacing, saying it will release that decision after the market closes Dec. 11.
    The S&P 500 isn’t the only index affected. Several other benchmarks will be rejiggered to accommodate the car maker, as well as any deletions from the S&P 500.
    Tesla, for example, is the largest weighted stock in S&P’s completion index, a benchmark tracking all U.S. stocks except those in S&P 500, and will have to be removed. Any stock taken out of the S&P 500 will trigger its addition back into the completion index, as well as step downs into S&P’s mid and small-cap benchmarks.
    State Street’s Mr. Bartolini said at least five of its exchange-traded funds will have to be rebalanced as a result of Tesla’s addition, including the biggest ETF in the world, the SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF, and its growth-focused ETF, the SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 Growth ETF.
    Tesla’s inclusion “will require a fairly numerous amount of trades,” said Mr. Bartolini.
    global-investing/2020/12/01/tesla-sp-500-2
  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    wxman123,
    PIMIX is still a good fund but when I owned it I like the way it was. Since PIMIX is so huge the managers had to compromise and own more HY + EM + lower the distributions and still behind. PIMIX ranked at 78 in category in 2019 and 52 in 2020. The best risk/reward in bond land was in securitized. I'm never concerned about outperformance, it's what I do.
    JAVSX is a small fund where the managers can be flexible and use their best ideas.
    The question as is always what investor you are, goals and style. You need to do your own due diligence to suit your needs
    ==================
    dtconroe,
    I am willing to revisit usage of funds like VCFIX/VCFAX as a fund that was considered one of the safer, less riisky funds, prior to the crash, especially when you look at its relatively smooth performance track since the crash. When a reputable brokerage, like Schwab, is willing to put it on its Select fund list, I tend to give that fund more "benefit of the doubt" than funds like IOFIX, DHEAX, and SEMPX, which had terrible crash performance
    If you look at 3 years prior to the crash and compare VCFIX,IOFIX,SEMMX,PIMIX (link) you see the following:
    1) SEMMX+IOFIX had the best risk/reward with Sharpe+Sortino.
    2) SEMMX had good performance annually over 5% with very low SD=0.9.
    3) IOFIX had double the performance with reasonable SD=2.6
    4) VCFIX had good risk/reward and beat PIMIX
    March 2020 changed is all.
    I don't invest based on crashes just as I didn't after 2008. There are investors who see danger while I see an opportunity (chart).
    But I understand what you do and it suits your style.
    HOBIX is another fund with good risk/reward since March 2020 see (chart).
  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    10 years is too long. PIMIX was great until 01/2018 but its AUM got much bigger than 5-6 years ago, the managers had to look outside their best ideas in securitized and now more HY and EM and the yield is now at 4%.
    For mostly special securitized and still lower SD you can use JASVX. 2 of the managers are from SEMMX but this fund performance was much better in March 2020 than SEMMX,PIMIX,VCFIX and good YTD. I know it's new but the managers aren't. YTD (chart)
    I like and own JASVX but it is not exactly the same type of fund as PIMIX at this point. Also not sure I see PIMIX doing so bad outside of this year (still up 4.6%) and last. Agree that the bloat won't allow "secret sauce" outperformance going forward, but still can be a good fund. Definitely watching closely. My concern with JASVX is it's outsized performance this year. I have a rule that when you see a fund outperform that much you need to expect that it could underperform just as badly, like IOFIX. Put differently, I'd tell my elderly mom it's fine to park a good chunk of her savings in PIMIX, not so sure about JASVX. But being the bond master I'm interested in your take on this.
  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    10 years is too long. PIMIX was great until 01/2018 but its AUM got much bigger than 5-6 years ago, the managers had to look outside their best ideas in securitized and now more HY and EM and the yield is now at 4%.
    For mostly special securitized and still lower SD you can use JASVX. 2 of the managers are from SEMMX but this fund performance was much better in March 2020 than SEMMX,PIMIX,VCFIX and good YTD. I know it's new but the managers aren't. YTD (chart)
  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    image
    I agree that BASIX is pretty good, MNCPX looks better when you look at performance + SD.
    Schwab have 2 recommended Multi funds JMSIX,VCFIX and I think they are not as good the others on my list. TSIIX is clearly better as a generic fund. PTIAX is another good one specializing in securitized and Munis. If I wanted to use riskier fund I would go with HSNYX over these two. It has much better performance for 1-3 years and lower SD
  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    For What It is Worth, BASIX is a very good NonTraditional Bond fund, that has a very favorable M* Fund Analyst Report, and has held up pretty well in 2020, and has a nice longer term performance record. Its portfolio has a very diversified mix of Government, Securitized, and Corporate holdings. At Schwab, it is a NTF offering that has very low requirements to invest in the fund.
    Another fund worth looking at is VCFIX, an institutional class fund at Schwab, that is now available with very low initial investment requirements. It got clobbered in the March crash, but has had a very smooth performance trend since then. Schwab now has it as one of 2 funds in its "Select list" of recommendations for the Multisector bond oef category.
  • VGENX Vanguard Energy
    As the one of the few places not part of the market's current irrational exuberance, and where there is "blood in the streets" it is time to buy oil and nat gas.
    Unless you believe ( incorrectly ) that no one will ever again fly in an airplane, drive an internal combustion engine automobile, or heat their house with anything other than solar or geothermal
    It is unclear if XOM will preserve the dividend as their strategy of increased capital investments hit the Covid Wall, but their are lots of other companies whose share price will rise as the cost of oil goes up when the economy gets back to more nearly normal.
    I would not bet on AMC surviving, and the future of the shopping mall is very uncertain, but PXD, EOG and CVX will survive until "alternative energy" takes over. This is at least ten years away, and probably longer.