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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Re JohnN's Q: Which funds would you folks most likely hold for another 1-3 yrs?
    Over three years, through 2015, I expect to keep PREMX and DLFNX....PREMX is my biggest position. DLFNX is one of my smallest.
    MAPIX, MAINX, MAPOX and MSCFX will be held, too, the way things are looking now. If TRAMX somehow manages a good run-up, I might roll it back into PREMX. I took only $3,000 of my PREMX stake and bought TRAMX shares late last summer at $7.19, hoping that some circumstances might converge to cause TRAMX to outperform for at least a short time. In the Middle East, this is the Rothschild "blood in the streets" moment.
  • Which fund (that you own) disappointed you the most in 2012?
    Though I bought-in only as late as September: DLFNX. But all things are relative, eh? I'm only disappointed in this case cuz my other funds lived up to expectations or exceeded them. Once again: here's my others, NOT in any particular order:
    PREMX TRAMX SFGIX MAINX MACSX MAPIX MAPOX and MSCFX.
  • Aston River Road Long Short call highlights and mp3 link
    Good, informative conference call; the explanation of the "drawdown plan" and reversal answered the main question I had about it.
    I'll be really interested in the T. Kong call if that comes about; been thinking about ramping up investment in MAINX. Thanks for setting up and running these, David.
  • Aston River Road Long Short call highlights and mp3 link
    Here's the link to a recording of the ARLSX call. We'll host it (and several neat new features) on-site in January.
    Quick highlights:
    1. they believe they can outperform the stock market by 200 bps/year over a full market cycle. Measuring peak to peak or trough to trough, both profit and stock market cycles average 5.3 years, so they think that's a reasonable time-frame for judging them.
    2. they believe they can keep beta at 0.3 to 0.5. They have a discipline for reducing market exposure when their long portfolio exceeds 80% of fair value. The alarms rang in September, they reduce expose and so their beta is now at 0.34, near their low.
    3. risk management is more important than return management, so all three of their disciplines are risk-tuned. The long portfolio, 15-30 industry leaders selling at a discount of at least 20% to fair value, tend to be low-beta stocks. Even so their longs have outperformed the market by 9%.
    4. River Road is committed to keeping the fund open for at least 8 years. It's got $8 million in asset, the e.r. is capped at 1.7% but it costs around 8% to run. The president of River Road said that they anticipated slow asset growth and budgeted for it in their planning with Aston.
    5. The fund might be considered an equity substitute. Their research suggests that a 30/30/40 allocation (long, long/short, bonds) has much higher alpha than a 60/40 portfolio.
    An interesting contrast with RiverPark, where Mitch Rubin wants to "play offense" with both parts of the portfolio. Here the strategy seems to hinge on capital preservation: money that you don't lose in a downturn is available to compound for you during the up-cycle.
    Negotiating now with Matthews about talking with Teresa Kong (MAINX) in January. They've agreed and we need to arrange date and time. The good folks at Seafarer are on-board to celebrate their first birthday with us in February. Still thinking about ultra-focused folks (RiverPark Wedgewood, Bretton, maybe Cook & Bynum) thereafter.
    For what interest it holds,
    David
  • Wifey's (new) Retirement Plan
    Thank you both. I appreciate the cogent, brief but precise information... Another thought that came to me, and which my wife is willing to do is to simply not use this plan at all, and decide upon X amount from her bi-weekly checks and invest it in our existing portfolio, which is now spread out further than it was just a year ago. We have but TWO non-retirement funds: MACSX and DLFNX.
    Without necessarily intending to do so, we've ended-up with a barbell. The heavy ends are MAPIX and PREMX. In between---not necessarily in order of size, is: DLFNX, MACSX, MAINX, SFGIX, MAPOX, MSCFX, and TRAMX.
    PREMX is 41.18% of total. MAPIX is 33.46% of total. None of the others is more than 3.56% of total. We could just use her portion to even things out, what? And these are all standard items, not peculiar, annuity-wrapped things with hidden, non-transparent fees and their own arcane fund ticker symbols and all of that. We know what we've got. It may be simpler and wiser to simply add to what we've got?..... I've shared the contents of my portfolio here numerous times, but there it is again, for reference. Thank you for the informative, thoughtful replies.
  • November is posted - plus a reminder
    Scout Unconstrained Bond manager interview--
    Q: How much cash do you have in the fund?
    A: We’re running about 30 percent net cash because of so many things we sold. We’re looking for short-term bonds and securities to purchase with one-year maturities to hold our ground against that zero cash interest rate which can eat up real returns over time. We’re looking at floating-rate securities, asset-backed securities and high-quality short-term assets. The best times are gone. Longer term, fixed income in the traditional sense is almost an uninvestable asset class and should be shunned by almost all investors.
    We’re slightly short high-yield bonds, which is unusual for us. The absolute level of yield on high-yield bonds is so low now it highlights an extraordinary risk people are taking. And the reason for the runup in high yield, which is primarily because of central bank activity, makes us cautious. So we’ve exited our derivative exposure going long and now we’re in a small way buying insurance for the portfolio for what we think is likely to be a decline in the prices of high-yield securities and a rise in volatility.
    We also think oddly enough the policies the U.S. Federal Reserve is pursuing in an attempt to bring volatility down are inherently destabilizing. The combination of the various quantitative easing programs they’ve undertaken are outright balance sheet expansions for the government. These expansions feel good in the short term like an injection of drugs to an addict but are destabilizing in the long term.
    The Fed has absorbed the entire supply of mortgage bonds and long-term Treasuries. Central banks are monetizing everything and causing a shortage of high-quality fixed-income securities. That destroys the price mechanism because nobody knows where a BB-rated credit should be priced today in the absence of all this central bank activity to prop up the markets.
    http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-10-02/the-best-bond-fund-manager-youve-never-heard-of#p1
    Confessions of a fund alarm/mfo addict--holding RNSIX, MAINX, RPHYX and probably adding this one. Now where would one get those ideas. Given this infernal fixed income
    market brought about by the financial engineering activities of central banks our fixed income allocations have evolved into betting on a Snowball's chance in hell. A significant cash position when warranted along with actual shorting holds capital preservation appeal
    among a mix of fixed income funds.
  • The Purpose Of Bond Funds - Total Return Or An Equity Hedge
    Both of the above, as you say. Took the words out of my mouth...Hank, your response in its entirety makes a great deal of sense to me. I have a domestic balanced fund which I'm very happy with: MAPOX, at just 3.21% of my total. I have been using PREMX for its very satisfying returns over time as well as the monthly dividends. I'm still overweight there. Lately, it has been on a tear. I am always telling myself I need to grow the proportion of my stuff which is in ostensibly safe, mundane, conservative domestic bonds. I'm using DLFNX for that, but I chose it because it's not QUITE what it's advertised to be. It's not, for example, the same sort of common-garden domestic bond fund that DODIX is. My MACSX and MAINX (6.4% of total portfolio combined) give me Asian convertibles, sovereigns and corporates. For the moment, I suppose we'd all do well not to own much in the way of zero-interest USA sovereign debt!
  • Anyone Buying/Selling (Open "ideas" Thread)
    Just came into some $$$ and:
    1) ADDED to MAPOX (div. paid today, share price down unexpectedly on a rather good UP day for the BIG DAWGS. Normally, the div. per share is 45 cents, except the year-end distrib, which historically looks to be a bit higher.)
    2) Finally took the opportunity to BUY into DLFNX. It's my only domestic bond fund holding. My one, single, zero-coupon bond holding will mature and be paid next July. Also, bond-wise, I'm in MAINX and PREMX. By far, my biggest holding is PREMX, though it has shrunk lately, in proportion to my others.
    3) bought SFGIX. I am anticipating the day when it will be further diversified beyond Asia.
    Portfolio:
    a) DLFNX 2.7% of holdings
    b) Zero-coupon foreign bond, owned now for 9 years, matures in 10 years at 5.68% (This is 5.38% of holdings)
    c) MAPOX at 3.21% of holdings
    d) MSCFX 2.54% of holdings (up 13% for me just since the Spring.)
    e) MAPIX 33.62%
    f) MAINX 2.84%
    g) MACSX 3.53%
    h) SFGIX 2.71%
    i) TRAMX 2.72%
    j) PREMX 40.75%
    .....Ya, I know it's a train-wreck. But I like it the way it is, dammit.
    MAPOX is balanced. Equities AND bonds. Apart from that, I have: 49.24% in bonds.
    ...I'm 58, retired early. Reduced pension, but nice to have. Housing, medical covered these days. If we move to Philippines, I'll have to buy scripts retail. But it's not awful. We've checked out prices. Hospitalization would be something else again. Maybe we WON'T move to Asia? No hurry right now to decide...
  • Anyone Buying/Selling (Open "ideas" Thread)
    Good idea for a thread, Scott.
    I've just been rearranging a bit over the past month or so: reduced municipals, beefed up my stake in Gross's BOND and Pimco's multisector PDIIX, reallocated some EM from MACSX to SFGIX, and added some to MAINX and DBLTX. All within "the margin of error" in portfolio terms ... no significant change to allocation.
    DGS is looking good; I thought about buying but have decided to wait a bit, hopefully for a bit of a pullback. I'm liking the pairing of ARTKX and FMIJX for developed foreign stock, and will add to the latter at some point.
    On risk parity funds, after some study, I realized the way my portfolio is set up, as a whole, is at least somewhat similar to an actively managed risk parity approach, so I probably won't be buying a fund of that variety, at least for now.
    Cheers, AJ
  • Advice on Bond Fund Consolidation
    Thank you all for your comments. I forgot to mention that I do own MAINX. Think I could live without BERIX and DBLTX if something interesting turns up. I've cut PRPFX by 50% and thinking about letting that one go too.
  • Who's gonna buy the donuts this time? (Matthews)
    20th Sept. 2012:
    MAINX div. .11029 cents and MAPIX .12971
  • SCOTTS PORTFOLIO
    We have some points of intersection. And is it one or both of my Matthews funds which hold Jardine Matheson? It's in my mix, somewhere....These days, after waiting for my ship to come in, I'm able now to add some basics to my portfolio which have been missing--- things such as a domestic, less risky (at least "according to Hoyle") bond fund, as compared to my EM bond fund. The new addition is DLFNX. Yes, uncle Jeff Gundlach. The EM bond piece is represented by PREMX. I hold only 6% in US equity funds. I'm heavy into bonds for preservation these days. Sixty years of age is not far away for me. It would seem that my choice to throw a bit less than 3% of portfolio into TRAMX just before the recent Fed decision to "juice" the economy was fortuitous in terms of timing, though I wasn't trying to time the market. MACSX has pleased me greatly, as well as MSCFX. And PREMX.
    My others are: MAPOX, MAPIX and MAINX.
  • Bondland was a bit muted today
    Yup. I'm heavy in EM bonds. My PREMX was down 2 cents. It's been down very mildly over the past few days. My MAINX was up a penny. Best performer was TRAMX, up by 1.38% on the day, but that's just 2.96% of portfolio.
  • What would you do with a large inheritance?
    Greetings, Dian. I want to ask, how large is a "large" inheritance? Anyhow:
    1. Yes, pay off debt.
    2. PRESERVATION of capital must be a chief concern.
    -That means: lots of safe bonds or bond funds with regular dividends AND
    -investing is SOME equities to attempt to keep up with inflation.
    If you are well-enough-off, look into muni bonds, which would be tax free for you. If not so well-heeled, the no-tax feature will serve little purpose.
    3. Decide how much you don't want to touch, in order to leave it for the generation behind you. Segregate that in an IRA, Roth or Trad. (I don't know the fine points well enough to recommend one type of IRA over the other, given your particular situation.)
    Samples, to start the decision process:
    BONDS: DODIX, MWTRX, maybe a bit of high yield, MWHYX. And a bit of EM debt: PREMX, MAINX.
    Equity funds: MAPIX and/or MACSX. MAPOX (balanced fund with both stocks and bonds.) PRSVX, BERIX (the latter is also balanced.)
    BREAK A LEG!
  • EM Allocations.How much??
    I have ~12% right now in EM equity and bond funds.
    eq funds I'm using:
    MACSX 5%
    MSMLX 1%
    ODVYX 1% new to me. continuing to DCA into
    and em bonds:
    FGBRX 4%
    MAINX 1%
  • EM Allocations.How much??
    How much in EM Bonds? Mine:
    46.52% of total portfolio is in PREMX
    3.05% in MAINX
    TOTAL: 49.57% in EM bonds. But let me also recommend, via Catch-22: FNMIX, at Fido. Its performance might be even better than PREMX, which lately has been on a tear.
    There is another, single bond I own, maturing in July, 2013. When the proceeds get to me, I believe I'll be adding it to MAPOX, which is holding about 30% domestic, "safer" bonds in its portfolio. It pays quarterly, like MAINX. But PREMX pays monthly.
    As for EM equities: do the Matthews funds count?
    MAPIX: 35.31% of portf.
    MACSX: 4.06%
    So: 39.37% total.
    MAPOX and MSCFX combined are 5.11% of portfolio.
    "Break a leg."
  • mutual fund strategy
    I dunno if I am even able to describe for you how I've done what I've done. Due to work/career surprises, in one sense, I've always been reacting rather than planning, playing catch-up rather than being even ABLE to be sitting where I want to sit.... But we all live through all sorts of variables. I wouldn't be able to invest at all without being lucky. I've mostly been using inheritance and 403b money.
    The 403b is gone, it's now in a Rollover IRA. To reduce tax burden, I have no Roth. I went with Traditional IRA, all the way. In the lowest tax bracket, there's no advantage to paying Uncle Sam NOW rather than later. (Trad. = tax deferred. Roth= pay now, but free-and-clear later, when you claim the money.)
    In broad terms, I did a lotta homework, listened to the tv talking heads and read the guys who write on money. Barry Ritholtz is good, and Danielle Park, in Toronto. But along the way, you need to pick-up on the buzzwords and twist-phrases. These tv guests and hosts, and the writers mostly SEPARATE money from anything having to do with ethics. Money can be used for good purposes or it can be a tool to screw others. We're in a dirty game. The very nature of the Market is one-upmanship. Digest that fact, and move on, or else you'll just have to look on from the sidelines...
    I became aware of the various niches which together, comprise the Market. I have maintained the KISS Principle. I never went into an investment too complex for me to understand how it worked. Using the information at hand, I created my own Big Picture of what's going on in the Macro sense. But that's just background, not the basis for particular fund choices. I looked and looked and looked at a million fund profiles at Morningstar, starting with those recommended here at MFO.
    -Always go "no-load."
    -When one particular sector is swooning, that's when to buy-in. I don't mean strange, complex, arcane derivatives. I mean, when the Western World is booming, like S & P, Dow Jones and Germany & England, more than likely, EM bonds will be drooping, so get in THEN.
    -Don't try to predict tops and bottoms. You should have a long-term horizon anyhow.
    -Babysit, but don't micro-manage your holdings. Watch them ride up and down. Hopefully up, overall. If you hold a fund for, let's say two years, and it has been a "dog" all along, dump it in favor of something else.
    -Watch the PROPORTION of your holdings toward one another. Try not to let winners become so big that they become their own source of risk for you. If you have HALF of your stuff in a single fund, a bad day will make you sick to your stomach. But after all, if you're not going to need the money soon and you are generally satisfied with Fund X despite a one-day disaster, don't unload it just on the basis of one bad day.
    These days, my biggest holding is in EM Bonds: PREMX. I won't be using the money for at least a couple of years, so I'm still reinvesting the dividends. (That's another thing. You want your money to grow? Re-invest all cap. gains and divs.)
    Bonds are inherently less volatile than equities. PREMX never is down more than 3 cents or so in a day. So although it's way too big a portion of my stuff, I can live with it. You'll learn to make these kinds of judgment-calls for yourself, too.
    ...So, I'm told that I ought to cover these bases: Large Growth, Large Value, Mid-Growth and Value. Foreign. Domestic, safe bonds. Investment Grade FOREIGN bonds. EM bonds. you can find all sorts of categories. DO NOT attempt to cover all these bases using an approach that treats the whole investment process like baking a recipe. You'll NEVER get anywhere by covering all the bases, just in order to cover them all. In my case, here's what I've got covered;
    1) Asia dividend-paying equities, bonds and convertibles through MAPIX and MACSX.
    2) Asia gov't and corporate bonds through MAINX.
    3) EM gov't and corporate bonds including a larger menu of countries through PREMX.
    4) Domestic large-caps and bonds through MAPOX.
    5) Domestic small-cap via MSCFX.
    *I just recently sold PFE Pfizer for a nice profit.
    For an amateur, I have become knowledgable enough to be dangerous. Know your limitations. Don't bet the farm on ANY single play. I will make a point here as I finish by specifying just ONE specific fund to stay away from: OAAAX. It carries a big front-end load, and over the last ten years, $10,000 would have today become $8,300.00. I rescued a friend's account from there and put him into TRP. I don't remember ANYONE in here ever offering a NEGATIVE recommendation, but there it is.
    'Happy Motoring,' said the old Texaco Tiger...
  • mutual fund strategy
    Laugh. Impatient and delirious. OK, I'll bite. I cannot claim to know all about the funds you've listed. Real Estate is doing beautifully, I hear, because it was in the crapper. Nowhere to go but up...And also, BOND funds, particularly EM bonds these days. But hey! I do believe this is a good time to get into equities. The shine on the EM bonds will surely fade soon enough. Unless you want to include "alternatives" like owning physical gold or Art, you have either bonds or stocks. And when interest rates rise---which they must, eventually, equities will do very well for a period of time, as opposed to bonds. ...If you're looking for a white-hot small-companies fund, look at MSCFX. I got in rather early, but could not afford very much, so it's a small position. Anyhow, y-t-d it is on fire. But look, if you get in NOW, you're "chasing performance." Best to wait for a bit of a fall, THEN buy. The fund's been in existence for less than a year, now.
    ***Best thing is to have a plan, then stick to it. That doesn't mean holding onto funds that turn out to be losers forever. But stick to your strategy, in light of your risk tolerance. And then, needless to say, there are the surprises: like losing a job, divorce, whatever. Then ya just gotta re-evaluate....I see that you own 7 or 8 funds. Some may tell you that you're too concentrated. For me, that would be the limit of what I'd want to be worried about keeping track of.
    Stick with no-load funds, and try to buy funds with lower relative Expense Ratios. In my case, what I've done is to pull together a small bunch of non-core funds which will hopefully even-out each other's volatility. That's another thing. Try to avoid volatility.
    The EU thing these days is scaring the Markets. It's artificially screwing everything up. Stocks (and bonds?) are not trading on fundamental values lately, they're trading on the latest headlines. I wish it would stop. But this is what makes a Market: if I happen to own stuff that will benefit from a slide in value somewhere else, it's difficult not to enjoy it.
    Don't go "chasing performance." If you buy into a hot, rising fund near a top, be prepared to wait a while for it to come back up again, after the inevitable drop. None of these funds have performance histories that run in a straight line.
    Well, I hope this doesn't sound condescending. And I hope it's not "old news." Just in case you might find it useful, here's what I own, though not in the proportions to each other that I'd prefer. I got a couple of bets in this list that are way too big, as compared to the size of my other positions. But I certainly am satisfied with my choices:
    MAPOX
    MSCFX
    MAPIX
    MAINX
    MACSX
    PREMX
    ...OK, then. "Break a leg."
  • Favorite buy and hold fund?
    Here's my list of long term equity mutual fund holds:
    APPLX
    MAPIX
    MAPTX
    MSMLX
    PRPFX
    Long term bond fund holds:
    LSBRX
    PEMDX
    Added in 2012:
    MFLDX (Likely to be sold when it goes load)
    PAUDX
    MAINX
    CYS
    FHY
    FCG
    IGR (I tend to trade in and out of this)
    MOO (I tend to trade in and out of this)