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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Infinity Q Capital Management Plans to Return $500 Million to Mutual-Fund Investors
    “Infinity Q Capital Management says it plans to return approximately $500 million to investors who were unable to get their money back after the investment firm halted redemptions on a then-$1.7 billion mutual fund earlier this year. It remains unclear how much investors will eventually recoup from the Infinity Q Diversified Alpha Fund. The fund currently has around $1.3 billion on hand—well below where it was last valued in February—and it will keep $750 million in reserve …
    “(The) firm unexpectedly halted redemptions in February and said it couldn’t value its holdings. The move stunned market participants, some of whom viewed their investments in the fund as a hedge to their broader portfolios. Infinity held wide-ranging bets across stock, currency and derivatives markets, including over-the-counter positions … Infinity appeared to have misvalued its large derivatives portfolio. Some of the valuations it disclosed were too high and, in one instance, mathematically impossible.”

    From WSJ June 9, 2021
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/infinity-q-capital-management-plans-to-return-500-million-to-mutual-fund-investors-11623181417
  • Inflation Is Real Enough to Take Seriously
    Best to keep in mind how today's inflation number is calculated - year over year - and what was happening a year ago.
    Hank's right about the usual inflation-related investments having already been bid up, starting months ago. In the case of the analyst group I follow the closest, it was about nine months ago they recommended getting into inflation assets -- specifically with the jump in the official numbers in mind, the numbers that would be coming in the quarters ahead, set up by the lowflation/deflation of late Q1/Q2 of 2020.
    I could be a little wealthier now if I'd gone into that trade more heavily back then, instead of cautiously.
  • How many different mutual funds do you own?
    I try to structure my portfolio into three buckets.
    Bucket 1 - Cash / Bond Funds (for Income)
    I hold a cash or bond positions with each account I have. Presently this bucket has 17% of my portfolio and represents 3-5 years of income (I may need to spend in retirement).
    Bucket 2 - Asset Allocation Funds (for Capital Preservation)
    I hold 3 AA funds and they make up 35% of my portfolio. These funds attempt to outpace inflation, reduce downside market risk, and achieve moderate growth.
    Bucket 3 - Sector / Category Funds (for Growth)
    I hold 10 funds here. These tend to be buy and hold positions and represent 48% of my portfolio. My plan is to periodically sell shares to replenish/enhance bucket 1 (Cash / Bonds) especially when these "Bucket 3 funds" capture above normal gains. I am more actively evaluating these funds for consistent performance, manager risk/reward, and trend momentum.
  • What caused the rating drop of VLAAX for one year ?
    @shipwreckedandalone : Found it or one would say part of the problem.
    How did the Fund’s overall asset allocation shift from beginning to end of the semi-annual period?
    At the end of September 2020, the Fund had a weighting of approximately 56% in stocks, 36% in fixed income securities and
    8% in cash equivalents. This compared to the allocation at the end of March 2020 of approximately 62% in stocks, 31% in fixed
    income securities and 7% in cash equivalents. After the U.S. equity market rebounded sharply from its first quarter 2020 lows,
    we positioned the Fund more defensively by increasing its allocation to fixed income in recognition of the heightened
    uncertainties faced by the market.
    Thanks Derf
  • SFHYX (Hundredfold Select Alt Fund) available at FIDO
    SFHYX has performed extremely well, but is somewhat opaque. Would you buy this fund?
    The recent issues with IQDAX (Infinity Q Capital Mgmt) have made me hesitant to trust smaller shops that lack full transparency.
  • Where’s the “fly in the ointment” here? (short term bond etf as “core” position instead of cash)
    ”You can use an ETF as a savings account. But you're going to have to manually move money into the "checking" account (core fund) if you want to use it.”
    *** Have to? Are we simply talking sound financial practice here? Or, does Fido prevent you from using the more direct route between ETF and another purchase or sale?
    What I kind of surmise is that buying directly out of an ETF would take at least 1 extra day to settle, making the intended purchase more susceptible to price fluctuation. If true, that would be enough to convince me to use a money market fund for transactions.
    And at TRP they won’t allow you to sell 99% of a non-money market fund because the system is set up to retain a certain % in case of daily price fluctuation. Found that out the hard way recently when I tried to sell / exchange most, but not all, of TRBUX from IRA to my TOD account. (However, you can do so by selling all and closing the account.)
    Re cap gains. This is a tax deferred account. But the headache caused by using TRBUX as a checking account is the reason I began using Price’s short term and money market muni funds. And did see @Investor’s comment on the matter.
    I’m one not to worry about putting cash at an elevated level of risk. I know others don’t feel the same. Even 0.5% earned on an ultra short bond fund looks better than 0.0%. :)
    Thanks for all the thoughts.
  • Tactical Plays for rest of 2021 and near term
    I find very little that I am comfortable with, at present, for a long term buy and hold investment. As a result, I have become more of a reluctant trader, focusing on bond oef categories that are doing well overall, that I think will last at least 3 months, and hopefully longer. I have been using several nontraditional bond oefs for trades--some more risky than others. Recently, I have chosen to open up positions in FR/BL bond oefs, as inflationary issues seem to be growing in frequency. FR/BL do well when interest rates stay flat, or increase, and over the past year FR/BL have been doing well. Nonagency mortgages were outstanding fund choices for much of the last decade, but they can be risky and many of them did not do well in the black swan crash in March 2020, but starting in April of 2020, they have been outstanding rebound investments, and now are settling back into a performance pattern, resembling the last decade--as a result I use funds like SEMMX as a short term aggressive trade choice, but don't trust it for too large of a position. I have short term trade positions in HY Munis, but in general I do not find HY Munis as a category I can trust for long term--when it comes to the fall, around September/October, HY Munis often get clobbered because of seasonal pressures. With HY Munis, I got clobbered early after the March 2020 crash, and so I limit how much I will put into this category, and ususally with a time limited criteria in mind. For my more conservative taxable account, I will use a fund like RPHIX because of its long term performance record, in good and bad markets, but do not use it as a trade vehicle because of fees--RPHIX/RPHYX is scheduled to close to new investors, but apparently stay open to current investors. Another fund I use in my taxable account is the very aggressive short term bond oef, DHEAX. I sold it during the March crash, but bought it back later in 2020, and have held it since. It is risky, and the DHEAX management will not permit frequent trading, so when I own it, I plan on holding it for at least 3 to 6 months--but I will sell it after that time period if market conditions merit that.
  • Where’s the “fly in the ointment” here? (short term bond etf as “core” position instead of cash)
    Hi @hank
    Taxable or sheltered account?
    I ask, as the paperwork for a taxable account isn't worth my time; for the small amount of interest earned for a tax year via an investment as FLDR. Note: I recall that one doesn't have to report an interest earned amount if less than $15. So, perhaps not a problem; depending on the amount of money invested. If we have money parked in the core cash account, it is likely from the sale of an investment. Generally, we will leave the money in place, versus a purchase of an issue, such as FLDR; awaiting a better investment opportunity.
    Hi @davfor
    Your graph is correct, but this reflects a one-time event (hopefully).
    So, yes; FLDR was volatile during a time period; as well as other debt investments within mutual funds or etf's holding this type of debt. I suspect that most folks who don't watch often, we not aware of anything happening with these holdings; and that all looked well when viewing 6 months later.
    The credit markets lockup was discussed here beginning in late February, 2020.
    Spring 2020 credit related liquidity lockup
    Regards to both of you,
    Catch
  • Where’s the “fly in the ointment” here? (short term bond etf as “core” position instead of cash)
    Think of traditional bank accounts. There's a checking account where you can write checks, pay bills, buy things. And there are savings accounts that pay higher interest.
    You can keep all your cash in a savings account, but when you need to buy something, you transfer the cash to your checking account. (Technically some transfers from savings accounts are limited, but we'll ignore that detail.) The point is that there's a difference; you can't use a savings account in exactly the same way as a checking account.
    Same thing here. You can use an ETF as a savings account. But you're going to have to manually move money into the "checking" account (core fund) if you want to use it. And with an ETF, it's going to take two days before you can take the money out of Fidelity. (You can use the ETF proceeds for trading almost immediately - different brokerages handle this slightly differently and I'm not positive about Fidelity's rule here.)
    There's also the matter of tracking cap gains. @Investor had a subthread (under RPHYX) that covered this a few days ago. But you already know this, as you've been using a TRP short term fund this way. Likewise you also know that these funds fluctuate in value.
    ETFs, especially when used for cash and traded short term have additional costs. Notably spread. The spread on FLDR is sizeable: 0.06% (on average). If you were to buy $100 and immediately turn around and sell it, you'd lose around 6¢. You might pay $100.03 to buy the fund and receive $99.97 when you sold it. You could try to mitigate that by placing limit orders, but then you run the risk of seeing some of your orders go unfilled.
    6¢ might not sound like much, if you're doing this even once a month, that's nearly 3/4% eaten up in transaction costs.
    If on the other hand you're letting most of the cash sit (so you're only losing 3/4% on a small part of the cash), then you don't need usually need instantaneous access for much of the cash. In that case, you could still use a short term bond fund for your cash reserve.
  • Style drift and star ratings
    Oh, I am thinking I would fault them a bit. They know how their star system is used, and when it lacks nuance and context to this extent, and when star changes seem capricious, what's a consumer to do? (As an instructions writer, I know the answer: read deeper, read harder, RTFM. So why have stars in the first place? CU does a better job.)
    This is just a remarkable, damning summary, which I repost for emphasis:
    ... reclassified VPMCX as large cap blend. It had been classified large cap growth even though its portfolio had been in the blend column since 2018.
    Its performance looked very poor compared with its "peers": 50th percentile (2018), 84th percentile (2019), 94th percentile (2020). (Though in 2021, with value ascending, it looked great - somewhere in the top 5%).
    As a result of its long term "poor" performance, it had been rated 2 or 3 stars earlier this year. But with the reclassification, it's suddenly a five star fund. Nothing has changed.
  • Style drift and star ratings
    M* recently reclassified VPMCX as large cap blend. It had been classified large cap growth even though its portfolio had been in the blend column since 2018.
    Its performance looked very poor compared with its "peers": 50th percentile (2018), 84th percentile (2019), 94th percentile (2020). (Though in 2021, with value ascending, it looked great - somewhere in the top 5%).
    As a result of its long term "poor" performance, it had been rated 2 or 3 stars earlier this year. But with the reclassification, it's suddenly a five star fund. Nothing has changed. Its half brother POGRX is a bit more growthy, so M* has left it in the LCG category. As a result, that fund sports a 2 star rating.
    An example how even unintentional drift affects star ratings is FSMAX. It tracks the S&P 500 completion index. M* writes: "This has been one of the strongest performers in the mid-cap blend category over the trailing 10 years through July 2020." But it has been on the blend/growth boundary since at least 2017, and M* recently reclassified it as growth. So this perennially strong performer is now rated 2 stars.
    I'm not faulting M* here. Funds that do not sit near the center of a style "box" have a good chance of being over- or under-rated. This will happen regardless of what box they're dropped into.
  • Why do you still own Bond Funds?
    hank: "I hope that better quality, longer duration bonds continue to suck air. Because if they begin to perform well in a meaningful way it means that other, riskier, markets (including junk bonds) are in a heap of trouble."
    Depends on what kind of investor you are. Equity oriented investors, tend to only think of bonds as "ballast" instruments, focusing on treasuries and investment grade options. Bond oriented investors, are aware that there are a wide variety of bond oefs, that perform differently in different environments. Funds like PIMIX and DBLTX were birthed in the ashes of the 2008 crash, purchased nonagency mortgages that were out of favor, and over the following decade of equity bull market performance, those junky bond oefs became hugely popular, replacing CDs for income flow, and making great total return, without the volatility of equities.
    I am not a great trader, but I have found that bond oefs move slowly enough that I can establish sell points for bond oefs, and easily switch to other bond oefs, in other categories, and still make a nice, lower stress, total return result. I did that in March 2020, when I sold my junkier bond oefs (with a small loss after hitting my sell point criteria), replaced them with some safe harbor bond oefs like GIBLX and BIMIX, and then when those junky bond oefs were once again performing well, I was able to switch back into funds like DHEAX and SEMMX, and make a nice total return. I am beyond my youthful days of heavy equity oriented investing, but have found my bond oef stage in retirement, provides a very nice total return result, allowing me to preserve what I have accumulated, and still grow the principal each year, even with the required RMD harvesting.
    I am 73 years old, in retirement, with no company pensions to provide me a safety net. My preservation of principal objectives, with modest total return, fits my current investing objectives and needs. I am quite content making 4% to 6% annual total return, with minimal volatility and stress, using bond oefs.
  • MUTUAL FUNDS WHY?
    This added efficiency should be true for most ETFs, except for Vanguard's, which for complicated reasons I'm too tired to explain aren't more efficient than Vanguard's index mutual funds as they are actually another share class of those funds.
    IMHO this perspective is backward. This added efficiency is true for Vanguard ETFs as well - so far they have been able to dump all gains onto APs. As a result, it is not that Vanguard's ETFs are less efficient than those of other families, but that Vanguard's OEF share classes are more efficient than mutual funds of other families.

    Most of Vanguard's ETFs were created as a new share class of an existing mutual fund.
    Former Vanguard CIO Gus Sauter even patented (expires 2023) this innovative solution.
    This solution increases the tax efficiency for associated mutual funds.
    Dan Wiener from "The Independent Advisor for Vanguard Investors" compared the after-tax returns of Vanguard ETFs with their corresponding mutual funds.
    Some ETFs had a small advantage of several bps but the same was true for some mutual funds.
    There also were ETFs and mutual funds which generated identical after-tax returns.
    The following Bloomberg article from 2019 discusses Vanguard's mutual fund taxation in more detail.
    Link
    Here's Barry Ritholtz's take.
    Link
  • MUTUAL FUNDS WHY?
    This added efficiency should be true for most ETFs, except for Vanguard's, which for complicated reasons I'm too tired to explain aren't more efficient than Vanguard's index mutual funds as they are actually another share class of those funds.
    IMHO this perspective is backward. This added efficiency is true for Vanguard ETFs as well - so far they have been able to dump all gains onto APs. As a result, it is not that Vanguard's ETFs are less efficient than those of other families, but that Vanguard's OEF share classes are more efficient than mutual funds of other families.
  • QYLD: Covered Call ETF
    https://www.google.com/amp/s/seekingalpha.com/amp/article/4432955-qyld-covered-call-etf-11-9-percent-yield
    QYLD: Covered Call ETF - 11.9% Yield
    Jun. 3, 2021 4:36 PMGlobal X Funds - Global X NASDAQ 100 Covered Call ETF (QYLD)QQQ, SPY
    Summary
    Covered call funds provide investors with strong yields and outperformance during flat markets, at the expense of lower capital gains and long-term returns.
    QYLD is a covered call ETF tracking the Nasdaq 100 index.
    11.9% yield, what can go wrong?
  • MUTUAL FUNDS WHY?
    @Tarwheel
    The only advantage of ETFs in these cases would be the potential ability to get better prices for sales or buys during the day rather than end-of-day prices.
    The other advantage of ETFs is portability. You can trade those ETFs cheaply or for free pretty much anywhere. Those zero-fee Fidelity index mutual funds only trade free at Fidelity, and I think actually are only sold at Fidelity, so you really can't do anything with them anywhere but Fidelity. They are essentially locking you in as a customer for life.
    Another advantage, although this is debated somewhat, is tax efficiency. The in-kind redemption system via authorized participants gets appreciated stock out of the ETF without realizing any taxable capital gains inside the portfolio that have to be distributed to shareholders. This added efficiency should be true for most ETFs, except for Vanguard's, which for complicated reasons I'm too tired to explain aren't more efficient than Vanguard's index mutual funds as they are actually another share class of those funds.
  • Tactical Plays for rest of 2021 and near term
    Good question. I’m not seeing anything near term. I prefer to call those “spec plays” anyway. As to “tactical” plays, I scale in or out slowly over months or years. So it’s a matter of portfolio weight or emphasis. I’ve lightened up a bit on the commodities / NR area just because it’s done so well. I’ll continue to lighten up there in “smigits”, but like the area too well to abandon it. BTW, I’ve plugged in PRELX as an (unlikely) substitute inside my real assets sleeve. And it’s beginning to move. A less dicey play on inflation than pure commodities.
    I’m looking at what to add at Fido when I have some money there. Kinda like their utilities fund, FSUTX, which would replace some of my commodities exposure. Last evening I went back and re-read David Geroux’s December 2020 Fund Report for PRWCX. In it he makes a compelling case for utilities (which constituted 10% of his holdings at the time). I’m more convinced after reading that than ever. A real long-shot is Fido’s less than 2 year old Infrastructure fund FNSTX. At only 50 mil AUM, should it pop - you’d make out like a bandit. It’s mostly outside the U.S. Heavily in Italy and Spain for reasons unclear. (Maybe they like olives & wine?) However, that’s a pretty far-fetched gamble. It could just as easily go the other way.
  • Why do you still own Bond Funds?
    Would it be an over simplification to say that you own bond funds if you are afraid that you might panic and sell if there is an equity crash? Is that the primary reason? The market watch article says you own bond funds for safety and not return.
    Ignoring the definition of a bond fund for the moment… as PRWCX (an AA fund with a LOT of equities) and HY (junk) bonds are not the same as an FXNAX. Those that held mostly or a large percentage of bond funds in their portfolio in Feb or March 2020 were probably very happy. How did they feel at the end of 2020 when measuring their bond returns vs equities or the S&P Index?
    My investment style broke several myths because I don't follow simple rules and indexes.
    Myth1: own bonds for ballast, it's about 10 years now that I own bond funds for performance too, starting with PIMIX in 2011.
    Myth2: there is no free lunch. I had a free lunch for over 20 years. Anytime a portfolio Sharpe is higher than the index, it's usually free lunch. PRWCX performance since 2000 shows that it made more money than the SP500 with lower volatility. PIMIX in its glory days (2011-2017) made more money with lower SD than many allocation funds 30-40% in stocks.
    Myth3: Momentum and trading don't work. It worked for me.
  • RiverPark Short Term High Yield Fund to close to new investors through financial intermediaries
    In terms of general tax efficiency, it's like any other short term bond fund - the divs are ordinary income and share price fluctuates mildly.
    My approach to handling cost basis with short term bond funds is:
    • Send divs to a MMF or bank account (do not reinvest) - to avoid creating a monthly small lot nightmare
    • Set the account to use specific lot identification - for full control, to optimize recognition of cap gains
    • Sell as needed in mid size blocks and use MMF or bank as buffer - to avoid a nearly daily stream of tiny transactions; identify lots appropriate for your cap gains objective
    • Purchase in larger blocks - simplifies identifying lots when selling
    P.S. I haven't seen you posting in years. Welcome back.