Thanks for reading @sma3. I don’t make any claim to making a better return. I strive to make a better risk adjusted return and am more focused on making a decent return with capital preservation.
Following trends and studying business and investing is a good idea. Those that put more effort into it or are better at will generally do better. There are always exceptions in both directions. Too much of most things usually ends poorly.

+1 stay calm UDF website bullet-point dated 10/25/21 mentions the allegation that James Dondero siphoned millions from his former company Highland Capital Management. Certainly increases my confidence in HMEZX! Snarky comment well-deserved !

Another fund with a nifty record, as all of its 17 (calendar) years show gains......AVEFX (Ave Maria Bond Fund). It holds a 20% allocation to equities, despite the name.
You know darn well what happens in 2022 if I buy it.

OAKBX -22.03 loss in 1Q 2020 eliminates my interest in the fund-perhaps harsh on my part,but still!

VSCGX had a very difficult 2008-09 period compared to similars but did better in the 2020 1Q. Sticking to VG limits your Allocation category choices greatly although VG offers great balanced funds compared to peers IMO.

Interesting interview from Nov. https://www.morningstar.com/articles/1063412/these-renowned-stock-pickers-are-taking-change-in-stride
One gets a clear sense of the differences between these two fund managers but some similarities too… and even with dare I say Cathie Wood?
Favorite quotes:
TESLA
“Lynch: I think it’s a tough business. Selling cars that are expensive for the average customer, that require financing, is a little different than selling Internet ads. We did own Tesla for about three years. It was a small, more of a speculative-size position back when the first consumer reports came out around the product, and the company was starting to have a real revenue stream in front of it. But the constant need for capital from the capital markets does put you in a position, potentially, during times of uncertainty of relying on the kindness of strangers to continue the business model. Cathie Wood would say it’s not just about selling cars. There might be more to it than that—energy storage, energy services, and things of that nature. Still, ultimately, it’s a car company, and there are a lot of other big car companies that scale. They do a lot of things differently that are interesting, but ultimately the capital intensity and the constant need for external financing for us became problematic.”
ZOOM
“ Nygren: When we weren’t able to be in the office, we were using Zoom as much as anybody else was, and as a consumer, I loved the product. The concern that we had was that Zoom was being priced as if it were going to be the dominant market leader for a long time. But one conference call would be on Zoom, and then the next one on Google Meet, and then Microsoft (MSFT) Teams and BlueJeans, and they all look just about alike as a user.” <— He’s absolutely right on this point.
BUBBLE? Stocks vs Bonds
Nygren: “ I’m not going to sit here and argue that it’s a generational opportunity to buy equities or anything like that. But given where interest rates are, owning an equity like the S&P that pays almost a 2% dividend yield and has earnings that are growing at 6% or 7% a year, compared to a long-term bond, is an easy choice to make.
Lynch: “ But all things equal, I would rather own smaller companies with smaller market caps that we think could be much bigger over time than some of the larger companies that exist today.”
BITCOIN
Lynch: “ We talked about persistence earlier. Bitcoin’s kind of like Kenny from South Park. It dies every episode, and then it’s back again. As for adoption, it’s almost like bitcoin’s a virus and we’re all a little bit infected. Some people fully have gone there, and some people haven’t, but we all know about it. That’s interesting to me from a viral mechanism.”
BANKING
“Reichart: Bill, you own a lot of financials. How worried are you about disruption in the financial sector?
Nygren: Most of the financial names we own are selling relatively close to stated book value. In a world where they get disrupted and their business goes down every year, they could liquidate for relatively close to the current stock. Brian Moynihan [CEO of Bank of America BAC ] said that the pandemic has pulled forward mobile banking by a decade. If you go into a bank to a teller, it costs them $4 to process your check. If you do it at an ATM, it’s 40 cents. And if you do it on your phone, it’s 4 cents. The big banks are a disruptor there because they are so far ahead in mobilization for their clients. I don’t see a big downside for most of the companies that we own.”

Keep in mind that David Rosenberg is among generally bearish strategists and he has been so for a long while. He was formerly with ML/BoA and Gluskin Sheff. He started his own consulting in 2020.

@stillers, @sma3,
Couple questions for you...
@stillers...I need to read your post carefully as it resonates with me...question if you are ok answering...by chance did you move to a lower tax state when you retired? I'm in a very high tax state but also own a home in a much lower tax state...wife and I are thinking of making the move in the next year or so. Question for all: Has anyone else moved to lower taxes in retirement? Did it work as planned? Happy with decision?
@sma3...agreed floating rate funds scare me...usually not highest rated bonds....took a real flush in the down draft in 2020.
I too am concerned about the rattling, swift elevator down in the markets...who knows...
Another fund I am dabbling with (and have owned in the past before it stalled out) is PMEFX, Penn Mutual 1847 Income fund. Really like the mgr who used to run Berwyn Income...seems like a fund you might be able to hang onto in "rough waters". I like the fund mgr's poise and thought process in the interviews I've seen him on.
Best,
Baseball Fan

FRIFX is a good real estate hybrid - RE stocks & bonds. It did have a terrible 2020 when both real estate stocks and bonds were badly hit. It is less volatile than all-equity VNQ, FRESX, etc.

@Newgirl, to clarify my earlier statement, we moved more equity to defensive sectors such as health care and utility. Traditionally, these sectors plus consumer staples are considered defensive while the other sectors are considered cycincal. This is a more of a tactical move to better position our portfolios in 2022. We have done well in 2020 when we bought REIT and energy when they were down over 30% due to the lockdown and they have since fully recovered plus another 30-40% in 2021, Now it is time to rotate to elsewhere.

From Ben Levisohn in this week’s Barron’s:
“Worse still, despite (ARKK’s) fantastic gains since it was launched in 2014—it has returned more than 340%—its investors have been terrible market timers. They poured billions into the fund during 2020 and the beginning of 2021, driving its flow-weighted price to about $109, according to StoneX strategist Vincent Deluard, or nearly 13% above Thursday's close of $96.70.”
“Up & Down Wall Street” / Barron’s - January 3, 2022

FWIW, the investment manager, IndexIQ appears to have thrown in the towel with respect to index construction.
This fund currently tracks the IQ Real Return Index, developed by IndexIQ LLC. This index targeted a positive real return. The index is "based on the premise that capital market returns tend to be forward looking and anticipate economic developments including inflation expectations."
Summary Prospectus
However, as of Feb 28, the fund will track a different index, constructed by Bloomberg.

the Fund will begin seeking investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield (before the Fund’s fees and expenses) of the Bloomberg IQ Multi-Asset Inflation Index (the “New Index”). ... Bloomberg Index Services Limited serves as the index provider for the New Index.
The New Index seeks to provide investors with a hedge against the inflation rate by providing diversified exposure to assets that have historically exhibited positive sensitivity to the Consumer Price Index, or CPI.

https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/1415995/000110465921150893/tm2135117-10_497.htm
That sounds like a different, less ambitious objective (inflation hedge vs. positive real return) and a different approach (less psychic, more traditional). It also suggests the risk of high turnover early this year.

The estimable Professor Snowball wrote about ARKK in this month's 'Briefly Noted' commentary.
"Despite a multitude of warnings, here at MFO, at Morningstar, and elsewhere, investors absolutely poured money into the ARKK Innovation ETF in December 2020 and January 2021. The warnings were pretty straightforward: (1) you can’t buy last year’s returns, so don’t let those sway your decisions, (2) ARK was wildly understaffed and inundated (net $20 billion in 2020) with dumb money, and (3) manager Cathy Woods has a consistent long-term boom-and-crash track record, with the boom having just occurred."
"Good news for investors committing their money on December 1st: you’re only down 13% since then. Less good news for folks who made ARKK one of their New Years 2020 resolutions: you’re down 24%. Folks who gave shares as a Valentine’s Day present? They’re underwater by 39%."

Entering 2022 portfolio positioned as:
TANDX (Castle Tandem Fund)
ARTTX (Artisan Focus Fund)
FMSDX (Fidelity Multi Asset Income Fund)
PVCMX (Palm Valley Capital Fund)
5 YR CDs laddered (3.25-3.55%)
MMmkt (FDIC insured)
IBonds - max amount
Do like Tandem, you can look up archives at tandemadvisors.com, ~30% in cash, invests in companies that can grow, their Large Cap portfolio which is run similar to TANDX..."seeks to produce superior risk-adjusted returns, while minimizing volatility over a complete market cycle. Tandem’s investment philosophy requires that portfolio companies consistently grow both earnings and dividends. LCC differs from Tandem’s other strategies in that dividends must be paid to be included in LCC. Tandem believes dividend growth justified by earnings growth should allow stocks to perform well over time regardless of economic or market conditions. A proprietary semi-quantitative investment methodology is utilized to produce returns that experience less volatility than, and correlation to, the broader market."
TANDX's lower volatility keeps me from janking in and out of the fund, regardless of what noise is in the markets that day.
Like ARTTX as there is a strong thought of mine that there is NO WAY that Powell is going to raise rates...so I hold this fund...keep in mind during this recent Santa Claus rally, $126B was pumped in by Powell...ya really think he is concerned about inflation...jawboning or clown show? Dunno. This fund has proactive risk managment and invests in profitable companies with strong forecasted earnings growth.
PVCMX holds a lot of cash but has shown during a "flush/drawdown" they know what to do and will act.
Here's to a great, healthy, properous and joyful new year to all,
Baseball Fan

One more "change" that I noticed while reconciling Realized Gains/Losses between my brokerage accounts and Quicken. At one point in the past, Quicken said it would default all mutual funds to "Average Cost" for the cost basis. So I stopped taking the extra step to "check the Average Cost box" on the security details page. Well ... Quicken no longer is using average cost as its default method for mutual funds. I've had to drill into multiple funds in Quicken to explicitly check the "Average Cost" box in order to reconcile gains/losses with my brokerage. Next project? Drill into every mutual fund in Quicken and set it to Average Cost where applicable. Another change that I was unaware that Quicken made.

Climate change is real and extraordinarily dangerous to the future of humanity and the planet itself. Yet this long-short vehicle you mentioned does not sound like a good fund. Part of the reason is the difference in time horizons between Wall Street and a phenomenon like climate change. Wall Street investors are short-sighted and only think at best generally about the next quarter while climate change is a slow moving train wreck that has taken decades to unfold. The private sector is ill-equipped to fight climate change because of its own short-sightedness. A company that might offer a technological solution years down the road with R&D will not receive the patience it needs from Wall Street to deliver that solution. Meanwhile, a company that is actively hurting the planet and could ultimately facilitate its destruction could have a good quarter and thus have strong performance. Neither the long side nor the short side may work here. The better option for investors is to starve the worst offenders of capital while trying to change the less worse offenders via shareholder activism. The best option for citizens is to encourage greater regulation of the private sector to fight climate change and global cooperation in hitting emmission goals. Regarding funds fighting the good fight in climate change, Green Century Balanced (GCBLX) holds no fossil fuels companies and is very active filing resolutions to change companies. It is conservatively managed.

The month of December has been a risk-off and risk-on scenarios where investors are trying to figure out how badly the market can be impacted by Omicron variant. It has been a risk-off scenario for the last weeks.
This year uptick of infected cases exceeded last year's cases and the peak has yet to be reported. Hospitalization is dominated by the unvaccinated patients, >90%. Breakthrough cases are reported but these vaccinated (and boostered) patients are experiencing mild symptoms while being protected from serious hospitalization. We will see the peak of this wave several weeks after the New Year.
Lockdown is unlikely to take place this time around. I expected the market will be volatile in the first part of 2022. So have a decent cash position may not be a good idea. Several fund managers who have done well in 2020's drawdown are all holding 10%+ cash.

I don’t think @davidmoran likes the post. No problem. I agree Ritholtz’s “tips” are overly simplistic. Probably intended for a less educated and sophisticated audience than here. And I personally agree with some and disagree with others of his ideas.
Agree: Consider crowd behavior when making investments. Just because a fund or asset has appreciated rapidly isn’t in itself a reason to jump on the bandwagon. Consider the “crowd” (hot money) effect that might be in play before investing.
Agree Reduce investing friction.. Here, he’s talking about expenses. Yes, I’ve been making a conscious effort to move to ETFs having lower fees than some of the funds I previously owned.
Disagree : Avoid making predictions and forecasts. I can’t help myself from doing this, While I don’t go “all in” or “all out” on an investment based on prediction, I do try to “tilt” one way or another based on what I think is coming down the road. I’m currently cautious about the coming year. I’m guessing the Fed will have to back down somewhat on their path toward rate hikes due to market turmoil. Just a guess. Probably wrong.
Not sure: Hold on to your winners and cut your losses short. I see this working for many others. He’s right in a sense. Yet, I do find myself bailing early from winning positions and “locking in” gains. To be honest, the habit has not served me well. I’d be wealthier if I’d let more of the winners run longer.
Gosh. Fatuous is pretty harsh. Rather than take offense, I’m inclined to defer to the wisdom the longtime host of PBS’s Prairie Home Companion, Garrison Keillor.
“Whatever Floats Your Boat”

It's been almost 3 weeks, and TR Price still hasn't worked on my disclaimer trust which I wrote the Medallion Signature complaint about earlier. But that's not why I'm posting today. With the large distributions that went into my Government Money account, I wanted to have some of it Direct Deposited to my bank account (eventually to Vanguard). Guess what - Unavailable Online
Online/phone redemption disabled. Call (800) 225-5132 to enable redemptions!
If you can't redeem online or by phone, what do you have to do? Go to their office in Baltimore? If it wasn't for the capital gains hit I would take, I'd get out of Price altogether.

I suspect we are now beyond the 2020 crash rebound period, and I think we will have to accommodate more rising interest rate impact. I don't have strong predictions about particular funds, but I am expecting bond oefs like IOFIX will come back down to earth and have more "normal" returns.

Today’s 3 cent gain continued a recent pattern of outsized gains one to two trading days before ex dividend date. This is the reverse of the pattern in effect prior to 2020. Their portfolio is trading around 96 cents on the dollar up considerably from the 60 to 80 cents since 2017. So I agree its best days are behind it and thinking 2022 may only see a 4% to 5% total return. Hopefully I am dead wrong. Can’t think of many or any bond fund that had such a stellar return this year. The managers feel the fund has another 25% to 30% before the legacy non agencies play is over. I would probably cut those numbers in half if only because fund managers in general tend to be overly optimistic. Sure has been a unique and special bond fund over the years and if one was able to sidestep the carnage in March 2020 and return the following month.