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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • CEF. SOR. Source Capital
    Trading at not an awful discount. Just unearthed it. Consistent dividends. Global equities, with bonds, too. Playing shorts with some cash. Is this the needle in the haystack?
    https://www.morningstar.com/cefs/xnys/sor/quote
  • Ping the Board
    Yep, state laws set up the basic public utility regulatory structure, and a public commission does the details based on the state law, covering all forms of energy generation. Solar net metering, for example, is governed the same way.
    But, there are sources of variability. For example, a number of states have renewables portfolio standards, and the commissions are very political bodies, more than a few of them pure lap dogs of the utilities, while others take the word "public" at least somewhat seriously.
    The structure for allowable profit may be different in different states, not sure how much that varies. My state has a return-on-capital formula, which leads the dominant utility in bizarre directions: the more they pay for a new source, the more they get to charge the ratepayer.
    The coal in the utility's portfolio costs the ratepayers more than twice as much per unit as the one large wind farm, which almost qualifies as historic now, having been finished in 2005, positively ancient and costly compared to newer ones. And yet, the utility doesn't want another watt of renewable power, and is trying to buy more coal for the portfolio, and thus can charge ratepayers more.
    Utility Dive is a good source for learning about the ins and outs of utility policy and regulation. Much of the news these days is about evolving renewables issues, but UD goes into just about every aspect of public utility power generation.
    P.S. This may be obvious, but in case it's not, the basic setup for regulated utilities is letting them act as a monopoly provider for a certain area/population, in exchange for public regulation with provisions for the utility's profitability.
  • Golden Dragon China PGJ
    #3
    I think the Chinese recognize ( but will not admit) that their vaccine is only 50% effective against delta; it may be even worse against Omicron.
    While we all think Omicron is milder, I do not have data on it's relative virulence vs delta in unvaccinated, or ineffectively vaccinated people ( will find some).
    Hong Kong ( apparently only 30% of old people are vaccinated) is having a bad time with covid, with seven day average death rates currently as high as 35/1,000,000. At it's worse, last summer USA death rate was 10/1,000,000 ( that was Delta. Omicron peak was 8.
    They hope with draconian measure they can stop deaths and hospitalizations unlike USA where both just kept on trucking.
    I don't think many people in China have died yet or at least the Chinese haven't said many people have died)
    If you are still interested in China investments, look at Krane ETFs. they have a long article on avoiding ADRs and buying only shares listed in Hong Kong or China directly. While the ADRs may stop trading, shares overseas will not, although they could fall in value, as capital in ADRs disappears.
  • Do any of your funds own Dish ?
    Appears, @hank, that Starlink might be available in SE MI in 2023, or so they say.

    @BenWP - Wow.I’d assumed they covered the entire U.S. by now. It was such a high priority with me I signed up / applied for the beta version in early 2020 and was fortunate to be included in the very early rollout in late 2020. I’m surprised it’s not more widespread by now. Suspect it’s more related to bandwidth capacity than geography - particularly in urban areas. Also, learned that the kits are in limited supply due to a silicone shortage - of all things.
    One may log on to their webpage and enter zip code. They’ll let you know if and when available.
    Found this. Appears quite recent: “Starlink is still in its early stages as a satellite provider and isn’t available everywhere yet. Even if there is service in your region, you might live in a place where it's oversubscribed for the number of satellites in orbit. If that's the case, you'll have to wait for additional Starlink launches to bring more bandwidth to your area.”
  • deferred income annuity for ltc
    Between marcom babble, poorly informed writers, and sometimes well intentioned attempts at "simplification", some of what's written about annuities winds up as confusing and contradictory as it is enlightening.
    Basic annuities (ignoring bells and whistles), while not as simple as bank accounts, are not as complex as they may seem. There is what annuitization means, and then a few parameters to think about.
    Annuitization is where you give an insurance company a lump sum and in exchange it promises to pay you a stream of checks. When you choose to annuitize, when the checks start after that, and how long those checks keep coming - those are some of the basic parameters.
    One often (not always) buys an annuity with a lump sum. That is called a "single premium" annuity.
    Buying an annuity with a lump sum and waiting to annuitize is to buy a single premium deferred annuity (SPDA). See Investopedia:
    https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/single-premium-deferred-annuity.asp
    Until you annuitize (give the money to the insurer in exchange for that promised income stream), an annuity is like a nondeductible IRA. Tax sheltered, growing in value. This is called the "accumulation phase".
    If you wait before annuitizing, i.e. if there is an accumulation phase, the annuity is said to be deferred. Otherwise the annuity is immediate.
    One you annuitize (exchange the money in the annuity for a promised income stream), you can start getting checks immediately, or you may postpone the income stream. That's deferred income.
    Annuitization may be deferrred and income (post-annuitization) may be deferred. People are so used to the idea that when one annuitizes one starts getting checks at once that they tend to conflate the two types of deferral.
    Regarding Partnership for Long Term Care policies: one can find official state sites (each state runs its own program), but I do not believe there is any official national site. The AALTCI site looks solid. Recognize though that this is a website of an insurance trade group with a mandate of promoting all types of long term care coverage.
    The national trade association for professionals dedicated to serving the long-term care planning needs of individuals, businesses and organizations.... Request a free, no-obligation cost comparison from an Association member today.
    Your state doesn't have an official Partnership site because yours is one of the few states that hasn't legislated to implement Partnership plans. The most recent bill (not passed) was proposed by the 2019-2020 legislature, not the current one.
    Sample official state sites include New York (I'm disappointed to read that no new policies are currently being written), Kansas, and South Dakota.
  • My Commodities Basket got clobbered today - DBC
    COM recommended by @lynnbolin2021 is an interesting idea. I am partial to actively managed funds here, and two of my choices SPCAX and GRHAX have better 1 year records. However, a quick analysis shows COM did have much less MAX DD 3/2020.
    It has been around since 2017 although an OEM using the same strategy DXCIX died on the vine, for unclear reasons. There is still a reference on the website
    While it claims it follows an index, the index is revamped monthly and it looks like the mangers have the ability to make daily changes to the portfolio. It seems to be a bit of a black box to me
  • Russia Now Going for Poland Perhaps.
    Below are extensive excerpts from a current article in The Economist. The article focuses on the parallels with the Soviet Union under Stalin. I've seriously abridged the article to include some of the more serious points that it makes.
    Of those points, I think that this is one of the most important: "American army doctrine says that to face down an insurgency—in this case, one backed by NATO—occupiers need 20 to 25 soldiers per 1,000 people; Russia has a little over four."
    When Vladimir Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine, he dreamed of restoring the glory of the Russian empire. He has ended up restoring the terror of Josef Stalin. That is not only because he has unleashed the most violent act of unprovoked aggression in Europe since 1939, but also because, as a result, he is turning himself into a dictator at home.
    Consider how the war was planned. Russia’s president thought Ukraine would rapidly collapse, so he did not prepare his people for the invasion or his soldiers for their mission. After two terrible weeks on the battlefield, he is still denying that he is waging what may become Europe’s biggest war since 1945. He has shut down almost the entire independent media, threatened journalists with up to 15 years in jail if they do not parrot official falsehoods, and had anti-war protesters arrested in their thousands.
    And to gauge Mr Putin’s paranoia, imagine how the war ends. Russia has more firepower than Ukraine. It is still making progress, especially in the south. It may yet capture the capital, Kyiv. And yet, even if the war drags on for months, it is hard to see Mr Putin as the victor.
    Suppose that Russia manages to impose a new government. Ukrainians are now united against the invader. Mr Putin’s puppet could not rule without an occupation, but Russia does not have the money or the troops to garrison even half of Ukraine. American army doctrine says that to face down an insurgency—in this case, one backed by NATO—occupiers need 20 to 25 soldiers per 1,000 people; Russia has a little over four.
    The truth is sinking in that, by attacking Ukraine, Mr Putin has committed a catastrophic error. He has wrecked the reputation of Russia’s supposedly formidable armed forces, which have proved tactically inept against a smaller, worse-armed but motivated opponent. Russia has lost mountains of equipment and endured thousands of casualties, almost as many in two weeks as America has suffered in Iraq since it invaded in 2003.
    And, as Stalin did, Mr Putin is destroying the bourgeoisie, the great motor of Russia’s modernisation. Instead of being sent to the gulag, they are fleeing to cities like Istanbul, in Turkey, and Yerevan, in Armenia. Those who choose to stay are being muzzled by restrictions on free speech and free association. They will be battered by high inflation and economic dislocation. In just two weeks, they have lost their country.
  • 2022 YTD Damage
    Those of you with good memory, could please share how (Fed, fiscal, turn in business cycle, or simple exhaustion) we snapped out of the 2015/2016 correction / bear market?
    Hmmm … Not to make too fine a point of it, but the S&P lost less than 1% in 2015. It was preceded in 2014 by an 11% gain and followed in 2016 by a 9.5% gain. There may have been a bear market in there somewhere, but I don’t remember it.
    - 2007-2009 was one of the worst bear markets in history based on peak to trough. But one of the shortest based on duration.
    - A more recent nasty stretch was in 2018 when the S&P lost 6.24% for the year, most of that in the 4th quarter.
    - Than there was the first quarter of 2020 when we fell off a cliff. However, by year end markets had recovered.
    Why we snapped out of recent bears or corrections I can’t answer. But I’d say your “Fed, fiscal, turn in business cycle, or simple exhaustion” are all somewhat correct. To pick just one, I’d guess the highly accommodative Fed was the single biggest contributor. Therein lies the problem today. With short term rates so low and inflation rising the Fed might not be able to ride to the rescue next time as it has in the recent (10-15 year) past.
    S&P Performance By Year
  • US Gasoline Prices at Pump
    I understand tthat shale oil producers learned a hard lessonthe last time they over committed capital to drill wells that only produce a year away, but $89 a barrell is adequate for them to make a profit, especially since they can lock that price in
    But you can't help but wonder if this is also a FU move, telling environmentalists " Since you want to drive me out of business, let's see how much you like it when I won't pump now"
  • Inflation
    From the same WSJ Article. Photo of economist and former U.K. central banker Charles Goodhart
    who in March 2020 predicted inflation of 5-10% post pandemic.
    Looks believable to me.
    image
  • Does your state pay more in fed taxes than it gets back?
    The answer is "no". At least in 2020, with reduced income and economic impact checks coming from the Treasury due to the pandemic, every state was a "winner". That doesn't mean states fared equally well, nor is this a situation that will persist.
    For the 2020 federal fiscal year, all 50 states came out ahead. That included New York, which got a return of $1.59 for every tax dollar sent to Washington, a dramatic increase from the 91 cents it received in 2019...
    Every state – and particularly hard-hit New York – received large sums of COVID-era relief at the height of the pandemic, buoyed by programs like the Payroll Protection Program for businesses and nonprofits. States also received a boost in unemployment benefits for out-of-work Americans. The extra federal funds contributed to a projected $5 billion surplus in New York’s budget this year.
    It was a period that saw Congress and then-President Donald J. Trump pass the CARES Act, a $2.2 trillion package that authorized $1,200 direct stimulus payments to most Americans. ...
    While New York netted $7,236 per resident on a per-capita basis, 39 states fared better. New Mexico ranked best at $16,999; New Jersey ranked last at $4,454.
    ... While various COVID relief programs have continued into 2021 and 2022 – helping bolster the state government’s financial footing – they will ultimately run out and return New York to its status as a “donor state.”
    https://gothamist.com/news/new-york-is-no-longer-a-donor-state-at-least-for-now
  • Only 3 Multi-Sector Income Mutual Funds Above Water YTD
    Here are all bond mutual funds, excluding Specialty Income, that are above water (month ending February), sorted by return, highest on top:
    Fairholme Focused Income (FOCIX)
    Eaton Vance Short Duration Inflation-Protected Income I (EIRRX)
    Northeast Investors Trust (NTHEX)
    American Century Short Duration Inflation Protection Bond Inv (APOIX)
    Fidelity Series 0-5 Year Inflation-Protected Bond Index (FSTZX)
    T Rowe Price Limited Duration Inflation Focused Bond (TRBFX)
    SEI Real Return A (RRPAX)
    Franklin Templeton Floating Rate Daily Access A (FAFRX)
    SEI Real Return F (SRAAX)
    Franklin Templeton Global Bond A (TPINX)
    Catalyst Stone Beach Income Opportunity I (IOXIX)
    BlackRock iShares Short-Term TIPS Bond Index K (BKIPX)
    Invesco Sh Dur Infl Prot R5 (ALMIX)
    Sit Quality Income (SQIFX)
    River Canyon Total Return Bond Inst (RCTIX)
    T Rowe Price US Limited Duration TIPS Index I (TLDUX)
    Advisors Preferred Quantified Government Income Tactical Inv (QGITX)
    Franklin Templeton International Bond Adv (FIBZX)
    CrossingBridge Low Duration High Yield Inst (CBLDX)
    Catalyst Enhanced Income Strategy I (EIXIX)
    Regan Total Return Income Inst (RCIRX)
    Invesco Senior Flt Rate Fd A (OOSAX)
    Lord Abbett Inflation Focused F (LIFFX)
    RiverPark Short Term High Yield Inst (RPHIX)
    DFA Short-Duration Real Return Portfolio Inst (DFAIX)
    CrossingBridge Ultra-Short Duration Inst (CBUDX)
    Weitz Ultra Short Government (SAFEX)
    CM Advisors Fixed Income (CMFIX)
    Pacific Funds Floating Rate Income I (PLFRX)
    Putnam Ultra Short Duration Income Y (PSDYX)
    SEI Conservative Income F (COIAX)
    AMF AAAMCO Ultrashort Financing Y (REPYX)
    Brinker Capital Destinations Low Duration Fixed Income I (DLDFX)
    Rational Special Situations Income Inst (RFXIX)
    Advisors Preferred Quantified Tactical Fixed Income Inv (QFITX)
    CBIS Catholic Responsible Investments Ultra Short Bond (CRHSX)
    Ed actually shared with me recently that this could be a good year for FOCIX. Berkowitz's JOE does indeed seem to be paying off, finally.
  • Chinese Metals Tycoon loses fortune on short bets on nickel
    WTI shorts made lot of money in 2020 when futures went below deeply below 0. Problem was entirely local - WTI futures contracts have physical delivery (unlike Brent futures that are settles with money only), WTI contracts were expiring and Cushing, OK was out of storage capacity.
    Real risk for shorts is that the underlying keeps going up and their brokers will issue margin calls or just liquidate positions before their accounts totally blow up. It is myth/urban-tale that one could lose infinite amounts by shorting.
  • US Gasoline Prices at Pump
    Perhaps if prices rise sufficiently, lease and permit holders in the US might be encouraged to actually drill.
    "Historically, the United States has been a net importer of petroleum. During 2020, COVID-19 mitigation efforts caused a drop in oil demand within the United States and internationally. International petroleum prices decreased in response to less consumption, which diminished incentives for key petroleum-exporting countries to increase production. This shift allowed the United States to export more petroleum in 2020 than it had in the past.
    Also in 2020, the difference between U.S. crude oil imports and exports fell to its lowest point since at least 1985. Net crude oil imports subsequently rose by 19% in 2021 to an average of 3.2 million barrels per day (b/d) as crude oil consumption increased in response to rising economic activity. We forecast that the United States will continue to import more crude oil than it exports in 2022, reaching an estimated annual average of 3.9 million b/d. However, we expect net imports to fall to 3.4 million b/d in 2023 as domestic crude oil production increases to an all-time high of 12.6 million b/d.
    Since 2010, the United States has exported more refined petroleum products, including distillate fuel oil, hydrocarbon gas liquids, and motor gasoline, among others, than it has imported. Net exports of refined petroleum products grew to 3.3 million b/d in 2020 and remained about the same in 2021. We expect petroleum product net exports will reach new highs of 3.6 million b/d in 2022 and 3.8 million b/d in 2023."
    https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=51338
  • Only 3 Multi-Sector Income Mutual Funds Above Water YTD
    Only 3 Multi-Sector Income mutual funds above water so far this year: RCTIX, EIXIX, DLDFX. Each have a healthy dividend and held-up pretty well in March 2020.
    Dennis Baran profiled River Canyon Total Return Bond Fund Institutional Class (RCTIX) for MFO in 2019.
    David Sherman of Cohanzick Management is one of the subadvisors on DLDFX.
    Nice performance summary table here.
  • Roth Conversion during Market Pullbacks
    Some of our mutual funds are down significantly YTD. This might not be a bad time to consider executing a Roth conversion if you were planning on doing one.
    roth-ira-conversions-in-a-down-market-6-things-to-consider
    According to a March 2020 report from Fidelity Investments, in the year after the “trough” of a bear market, the S&P 500 has gained an average of 47%. That is in comparison to the little over 8% per year on average that the S&P 500 has returned over the last 20 years*. To go back to my example of a $50k conversion, let’s assume you did that when the market was at the low on March 23rd of this year. The S&P 500 is up 44.54%* from March 23rd through yesterday, July 28th, so that $50k grew to just over $72k in about 4 months, $22k of tax-free growth.
    getting-the-most-bang-for-your-buck-roth-conversion-during-a-market-pullback/
    A Roth conversion may not always be in a
    taxpayer’s best long-term economic interests if:
    • The current tax cost of the conversion is prohibitively high. A Roth conversion, in
    its simplest sense, is a trade-off between paying taxes now vs. paying taxes later.
    For the strategy to be impactful, the current tax cost of the conversion should not
    be so expensive that it outweighs the benefit of any expected future tax-free
    investment growth.
    • The taxpayer is making regular and material withdrawals from their pre-tax IRA.
    • The taxpayer does not have the cash to pay the tax due on conversion.
    Tip:
    We recommend converting shares of investment positions rather than selling investments in
    the IRA and then converting cash proceeds. This ensures that the taxpayer continues to have
    market exposure during the conversion process, and also saves on the transaction fees that
    may be levied when selling an investment position.
    2020_was_the_Perfect_Year_for_a_Roth_Conversion
  • US Gasoline Prices at Pump
    Shale oil production was cut back drastically in 2020. Now the US shale oil producers are not rushing in to produce when they see huge backwardation in the oil futures market (it takes several months for new shale oil to bring to the market), with WTI for April $117.21, May $113.13,..., December $91.57,..., June 2023 $84.88.
    I think that a temporary solution for the US to replace Russian heavy/dirty crude is with Canadian (friendly) or Venezuelan (unfriendly) crude. The US WTI is sweet/light, and the old US refineries have to mix it with some heavy/dirty crude for processing.
    https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html
  • Minimum Volatility ETFs Failing Again?
    In highly volatile markets, minimum volatility ETFs end up on the wrong side, or rebalance inappropriately. If it was a fluke in 2020, well, it is happening again. Of course, they are not adjusting in real-time, so this is understandable, but their names sound more reassuring.
    Shorter-term YTD view from Stockcharts, LINK1
    Longer-term 3-Yr view from PV, LINK2
  • Wealthtrack - Weekly Investment Show
    The Anatomy of a Recession (AOR) program is designed to help you stay on top of the business cycle and provide thoughtful insights through our exclusive risk and recovery dashboards. Updated monthly, AOR offers a concise, practical look at what the key indicators are saying about the United States economy and the potential impact on the equity markets. The data suggests that the economy exited the COVID-19 recession around mid-year 2020. As we move into 2021, investor focus has shifted to the possibility of a double dip recession which is why ClearBridge has re-introduced the Recession Risk dashboard. Click on each tab for a different view of the dashboard data.
    perspectives/anatomy-of-a-recession