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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Funnyman WB. He is paying $848.02 for his newest acquisition Alleghany/Y. Why such an odd price? Well, that is $850 minus the fee for Goldman Sachs/GS that Y is paying - WB doesn't think GS found him as buyer for Y and his cash offer doesn't need any fancy footwork from GS.
    Alleghany/Y was captured in my summary then (although I didn't buy it) LINK
    "BULLISH. Insurer Alleghany (Y; no dividends but special dividends with the last one in 2020; fwd P/E 14.1 (2021), 9.7 (2022); P/B 1; like mini-BRK; businesses include P&C insurance, reinsurance and noninsurance businesses such as steel fabrication, toys, funeral products, etc; pg 15);"
  • Harbor Strategic Growth Fund is to be reorganized
    @BaluBalu, unclear but as noted by @TheShadow, it looks like a roundtrip. In 2016, Mar Vista Strategic Growth Fund became Harbor Strategic Growth Fund, and now it is back to Mar Vista Strategic Growth Fund. Strange dealings between Mar Vista and Harbor. It may be a matter of who needed whom and when? Harbor has also been in the news lately for introducing flashy funds, firing Pimco, etc. New CEO (2017- ) and new CIO (2020- ) making lots of noises/changes?
    Mar Vista Investment Partners Website https://www.harborcapital.com/subadviser/mar-vista-investment-partners
    Harbor in the news https://www.harborcapital.com/about-us/news
  • 2022’s Most & Least Federally Dependent States
    The fraud in the Covid relief is shameful, but it is misguided to assume that some billions fraudulently misappropriated in $5.1 trillion worth of two relief--2020 and 2021--packages indicate some sort of failure in policy:
    https://cbpp.org/research/poverty-and-inequality/robust-covid-relief-achieved-historic-gains-against-poverty-and
    When COVID-19 began to rapidly spread across the United States in March 2020, the economy quickly shed more than 20 million jobs. Amid intense fear and hardship, federal policymakers responded, enacting five relief bills in 2020 that provided an estimated $3.3 trillion of relief and the American Rescue Plan in 2021, which added another $1.8 trillion. This robust policy response helped make the COVID-19 recession the shortest on record and helped fuel an economic recovery that has brought the unemployment rate, which peaked at 14.8 percent in April 2020, down to 4.0 percent. One measure of annual poverty declined by the most on record in 2020, in data back to 1967, and the number of uninsured people remained stable, rather than rising as typically happens with large-scale job loss. Various data indicate that in 2021, relief measures reduced poverty, helped people access health coverage, and reduced hardships like inability to afford food or meet other basic needs.
    These positive results contrast with the Great Recession of 2007-2009, when the federal response was large compared to measures taken in other post-World War II recessions but less than one-third as large as the fiscal policy measures adopted in 2020-2021, when measured as a share of the economy. While decried by some at the time as too large, the relief measures enacted during the Great Recession were undersized and ended too soon. As a result, the economy remained weak for longer than was necessary — and families suffered avoidable hardship. Two years after the Great Recession began, unemployment was still 9.9 percent and food insecurity remained one-third above its pre-recession level. While some of that difference stems from differences in the trigger to the downturn, some is clearly due to the strength of the policy response.
    What I don't like is states and politicians claiming they don't need federal assistance and shouldn't have to pay taxes while taking loads of federal assistance.
  • Tough Day in Bond Land
    It is a bad year for Munis. I sold what I could without taking large gains in VWIUX ( Down 4% YTD) and kept overall duration low with VWSUX ( down 1%) and VMLUX ( Down 2%).
    I bought NVHAX, figuring the good economy would keep the default rate in lower rated Munis low, and the low duration would cut interest rate risk, but NVHAX is still down over 3%
    Only one of my bond funds that is close to zero for the year is RCTIX
  • U.S. inflation rate climbs again to 7.9%, CPI shows / MarketWatch Article
    @BaseballFan - I consider you a great asset to the board based on your investment related contributions over the years. As long as everyone is civil no harm in voicing dissenting views. I actually pay $$ to subscribe to Bill Fleckenstein’s “Daily Rap.” His political opinions run similar to yours - and distinctly contrary to my own. But I’m willing to overlook that right wing dogma because it’s all about investing. And I think he, like you, has some interesting thoughts on investing.
    It’s not for me to decide, but I would hope everyone tries their best to talk about “best ideas” for preserving and growing our capital and less about politics or which party is best for growing wealth. I do believe there are investments for every “season”. So let’s size up the current macro financial environment as it exists today and work to come up with investments that work.
  • Vanguard created big tax bills for target-date fund investors, lawsuit claims
    What Vanguard did here could be legal but inexcusable. It just reeks of incompetence and I think incompetence is not illegal on this planet but lack of duty to care is. Capital gains recognized by departing shareholders can be used by the fund to reduce fund level capital gains. Not too many funds employ this rule to reduce capital gain distributions to staying shareholders. Did Vanguard employ this rule to reduce capital gain distributions in this case?
    I hold some Vanguard index equity ETFs (and no OEFs) in my taxable accounts and the thought that they could sock me in the face at YE with cap gain distributions crosses my mind every year. This is more true for Vanguard ETFs because they are a class of the OEFs. Not trying to digress but wanted to convey that blindly outsourcing one's welfare to an institution has its costs and there are a lot of die hard Vanguard fund shareholders with blind faith in Vanguard.
  • How often do you rebalance?
    @Derf Yes. It was the latter. But, overall, my portfolio is down 4.4% YTD. So, there has been a slight downturn. Non-stock investments have tended to drop in tandem with stock investments so far this year....somewhat to my surprise. Decisions to overweight energy in 2020 when the sector was very much out of favor and to shift some bond $'s into individual utility stock $'s in the latter part of that year have proved helpful. But 2022 is still young. Perhaps the market will return to emphasizing the potential adverse impact of rising rates on utility stock profitability. The road ahead may be somewhat bumpy for those income stocks. (This original "bond replacement" investment has returned 20.7% exclusive of dividends so far and is providing a 4.34% YOC.)
  • Short and distort - the inverse of pump and dump
    @Old_Joe is right. Our chitchat is illegal. We MFOers have so much capital and influence that all we have to do is mention a fund or stock favorably to effect massive buy orders. The obverse must logically follow. If a single member becomes disenchanted with a fund and sells, watch out below!!
    Enjoy the bball this weekend. The market can’t sting you if it’s closed.
  • Hold On or Move On
    Sold out of MGGIX the other day as part of early tax loss harvesting for 2022. It was acting too much like a concentrated tech fund and that's not what I wanted when I bought into it.
    Their 2021 Annual Report came today. Call me spoiled or misguided after years of the informative, descriptive, reflective personal multi-page discussions in the annual letters from Giroux, Capital, Vanguard, and other funds, but when fund management's commentary for an annual report is only one page, unsigned, and doesn't even say 'thank you for investing in our fund' (*) it just suggests to me they don't really care about building a relationship with shareholders.
    (*) I refer to the manager of the fund itself, not the Chairman's introduction note on behalf of the fund manager's firm.
    I noticed a similarly annoying thing an a recent report from Blackrock. They (Blackrock) were the investment advisor, yet they kept saying "the Investment Advisor...." as if to rhetorically distance themselves for some reason. And it was only 1 or 2 of their funds doing that, the rest were more first-person in tone. Weird, but noticeable.
    Edit: Interesting too that the majority of MGGIX directors come from Perkins-Cole. One would think there would be greater diversification there.
    I posted a pissed off thread about MGGPX recently, but held on. Good thing I did. Guess, you gotta trust a good manager. Doesn't have the jitters during rough times. He killed it during covid. Let's hope he pulls through on all this.
  • Short and distort - the inverse of pump and dump
    Here's the page from which @bee's except was taken:
    https://www.deepcapture.com/the-story-of-deep-capture-by-mark-mitchell/
    naked shorters ... (it's flatly illegal goes the argument
    Is naked shorting flatly illegal, or is that just one side's argument?
    Naked shorting is not unconditionally illegal, just as going long without having the money to cover it on the trade date is not unconditionally illegal.
    Is it illegal to buy a security and then talk it up? It depends.
    "[A]busive 'naked' short selling as part of a manipulative scheme is always illegal under the general antifraud provisions of the federal securities laws, including Rule 10b-5".
    SEC Rule 10b-21 https://www.sec.gov/rules/final/2008/34-58774.pdf
    Absent fraud, naked shorts can be legal, so long as they comply with other SEC regs. "'Naked' short selling is not necessarily a violation of the federal securities laws or the [Security and Exchange] Commission’s rules. Indeed, in certain circumstances, 'naked' short selling contributes to market liquidity."
    https://www.sec.gov/investor/pubs/regsho.htm
    Apparently naked shorting is not flatly illegal, goes the official argument. The DTCC agrees, saying that "there is some legal naked short selling.
    With respect to Overstock, "In 2004, Cohodes, a partner at a hedge fund called Rocker Partners, and David Rocker, the fund’s founder, shorted Overstock after concluding that Byrne was making untenable promises about its financial performance. "
    https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020/12/14/a-tycoons-deep-state-conspiracy-dive
    That's 18, not 15 years ago. This matters because Regulation SHO became effective January 2005, and Rule 10b-21 became effective Oct 2008.
    For a very different, expansive perspective of the alleged conspiracies, here's Joe Nocera's business column from Feb 2006:
    https://www.nytimes.com/2006/02/25/business/overstocks-campaign-of-menace.html
    To bring this back to the Reuters piece - put options were purchased. That's a way to gain the same exposure as with a short, but there's no failure to deliver; no security lending is involved. As the CEO of Farmland stated, ""This is not about shorting. This is about securities fraud."
  • Vanguard created big tax bills for target-date fund investors, lawsuit claims
    @MSF One thing I think you may be missing is that when a fund makes such a large distribution, often, although not always, it has performed quite well and it may be time to reallocate one's portfolio into another asset class that has underperformed and is cheaper. This however may not apply to TDFs as they do the allocating for investors. Such a strategy as you described may add value in TDFs but in more traditional single asset funds could be just throwing money at an overvalued position for an extra 2%. I've often taken such distributions and put them somewhere else. It's rather interesting from a psychological perspective of an investor thinking about the manager's psychology. If the manager is selling stocks and realizing large gains in them, perhaps his/her portfolio isn't quite as attractive as it once was. There may of course be many reasons why he/she is selling the positions, but valuation is often one of them. A big distribution is almost a tacit admission by the manager in some cases I imagine that it's time for fund investors to move on. I wonder if anyone has ever done a study on how equity funds perform after they've made large distributions.
  • Vanguard created big tax bills for target-date fund investors, lawsuit claims
    I greatly appreciate preannouncements because they facilitate YE tax planning - how much gain to take this year (or whether to recognize losses), how much of an IRA to convert.
    But in terms of managing large distributions, the preannouncements are a double edged sword. I admit to playing the game (as described below) to the disadvantage of other shareholders when it benefits me to do so. (That happens very infrequently.) It's legal, but it isn't especially fair to other investors.
    Total distributions of the retail target date funds were estimated to be around 14%, depending on the fund.
    https://advisors.vanguard.com//iwe/pdf/taxcenter/FAFYEEST_122021.pdf
    If I had owned shares of a fund that had appreciated less than 14%, I would have sold the shares by the record date (so that I would not receive the distributions). Immediately after that (on the ex-date) I would have reestablished my position. Even if I recognized 12% in gain, I'd come out better than being handed a tax bill for a 14% distribution.
    This would hurt remaining investors (in taxable accounts). The same cap gains and income would still have to be distributed, but now divided into fewer shares (because I'd redeemed mine). That would increase the taxable distributions to others.
    If I'd had, say, a 16% unrealized gain, I wouldn't make this move. Otherwise I'd recognize a 16% gain when I could have recognized "just" 14% by staying put and taking the distributions.
    The fact that this maneuver was available to everyone may be another argument that Vanguard could make to limit damages, assuming it is found to have breached its fiduciary duty.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Mortgage credit in the port now at zero; it was by far my largest allocation in recent years. Last to go was EIXIX. AlphaCentric and Regan's entries in the category have been ~ 75% ROC recently, thus with a pitiful income yield. The category was flat early in the big 2022 selloff, weakening lately, and just not a whole lot of upside left in the tank. This is my obituary for the great debt trade of the last decade-plus. (I might buy in again on a true selloff and signs of recovery.)
    I'm probably more cautious than a lot of posters, given no pension and adequate but not massive savings/investment $. #1 position now is cash, #2 is PQTAX, with some ETFs mainly in trading mode. Capital preservation is the main objective at this point.
  • Vanguard created big tax bills for target-date fund investors, lawsuit claims
    Their statutory prospectii are very clear. Distributions may be made
    Suppose a fund had short term shares and long term shares with the same cost basis. And suppose Vanguard chose to sell the short term shares instead of the long term shares to raise cash. That's something no prudent investor would do.
    I don't think there's any doubt that in such a situation Vanguard would have breached its fiduciary duty of care. The fact that shareholders are on notice that the tax liability on recognized gains is passed through to them does not relieve Vanguard of this fiduciary duty in all situations.
    https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/duty_of_care
  • CEF. SOR. Source Capital
    Yes, Eaton Vance. Since everyone's tax situation is different take a look at last years distributions/share and see how you may be affected. The distributions were all either long-term capital gains or income.
    ETV
  • Hold On or Move On
    Sold out of MGGIX the other day as part of early tax loss harvesting for 2022. It was acting too much like a concentrated tech fund and that's not what I wanted when I bought into it.
    Their 2021 Annual Report came today. Call me spoiled or misguided after years of the informative, descriptive, reflective personal multi-page discussions in the annual letters from Giroux, Capital, Vanguard, and other funds, but when fund management's commentary for an annual report is only one page, unsigned, and doesn't even say 'thank you for investing in our fund' (*) it just suggests to me they don't really care about building a relationship with shareholders.
    (*) I refer to the manager of the fund itself, not the Chairman's introduction note on behalf of the fund manager's firm.
    I noticed a similarly annoying thing an a recent report from Blackrock. They (Blackrock) were the investment advisor, yet they kept saying "the Investment Advisor...." as if to rhetorically distance themselves for some reason. And it was only 1 or 2 of their funds doing that, the rest were more first-person in tone. Weird, but noticeable.
    Edit: Interesting too that the majority of MGGIX directors come from Perkins-Cole. One would think there would be greater diversification there.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 3/16/22
    Thanks. Interesting that two consecutive days of good market gains and bearish sentiment got worse for the week.
  • Golden Dragon China PGJ
    Really appreciate your assessment. Wild day for emerging market. Will rebalance more once things settle a bit.
    What concerns me is China is undergo lockdown in several large cities with several thousands cases of COVID. One is the city equivalent to the silicon valley where they manufacture high value products include Apple products. Could this be a replay of March 2020?
  • TRP CEFs

    Many of these semi-transparent ETFs from TRP or Capital are based broadly on and/or will try replicating the models/holdings of their 'equivalent' mutual funds but won't necessarily contain the same holdings, too.
    (For example TRP's Growth ETF might almost be the same as TRBCX and even have the same name, managers, and relatively similar holdings, but it won't be quite identical.)
  • CEF. SOR. Source Capital
    SOR - Source Capital is a storied CEF with lots of history. Warren Buffett once thought so highly of the fund that he considered buying it, but that didn't happen. Activist Saba owns a stake. There was a big management change in 2016 and also changes in objectives from aggressive-allocation (70-85% equity) to moderate-allocation (50-70% equity) - so ignore record prior to 2016. Historically, the equity portion has been small/mid-cap using the GARP approach and fixed income riskier preferreds/convertibles, HY; there is income/distribution tilt - there are not many allocation funds with this mix. Effective-equity is 76% vs 61% nominal. Leverage is not indicated but there are common and preferred shareholders, so check this aspect. There is some value bounce lately. Also look at the info at CEFConnect.
    https://www.cefconnect.com/fund/SOR