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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Barron's
    @hank,
    This past Friday was ugly. Mining stocks including NGLOY took quite a hit. GOLD took a dive too.
    In next several weeks we will learn more on test results on "Omicron". There was flash of fear reflecting the consequences of February 2020 when the pandemic started. Two possible scenarios: (1) Omicron is no worse than the Delta variant and there is no significant reduction on the vaccine's efficiency, and (2) Omicron turns out to evades all vaccines and the spread cannot be readily contained unless lockdown is being imposed. If scenario #1 plays out, there is already restricted travel imposed on African countries to EU and US and the spread is NOT widespread. Also there are advanced made with Merck's and Pfizer's antiviral drugs for treatment. Scenario #2 can be quite damaging to the world since there is no vaccine solutions (and it will take at least a year to develop and manufacturing new vaccine for the world population).
    To complicate the matter, the inflation, the timeline of Fed tapering, and rising rates are all taken place concurrently. COVID risk was reduced this year with vaccination, but now it is placed on top of everything else.
  • Blackrock Systematic Multi Strategy Fund (BAMBX)
    (Lipper* generally quotes from the manager’s description):
    “The Fund seeks total return comprised of current income and capital appreciation. BlackRock will invest the Funds assets through a diversified set of strategies that seek to provide total return comprised of current income and capital appreciation in both periods of strong returns and periods of market stress.”
    77% in bonds likely reason the fund was up a bit yesterday. Longer dated high quality bonds were up sharply.
    Since the asset breakdown on Lipper adds up to 100%, it’s unlikely they’re doing much (if any) shorting - which generally skews the total to something over 100.
    I tend to like Blackrock. Rock Rieder, one of their fixed income people, talks a good game. Bright and articulate.
    No fund is a “spaghetti bowl” if one is willing to invest the time and energy into exploring the contents. In the case of TMSRX I’ve not done the due diligence I probably should have, trusting in TRP whom I’ve been with for about 30 years to run that complex fund on the straight and narrow and not put my money at excessive risk. But that’s laziness on my part - not dereliction on theirs.
    @Baseball_Fan - Could you share a little about your current investment approach? What do you like in addition to near 0% cash? I recall about 6-7 months ago you were buying Home Depot and also looking for inflation hedges. The problem with those inflation hedges is that a lot of other people caught the scent in the wind 6 months ago and chased. It’s a diverse lot. Some areas (certain industrial metals) are doing fine and may not be overpriced. But it’s a rough playing field as evidenced by the more than 6% drop in oil yesterday.
    *Link to BAMBX Lipper profile: http://www.funds.reuters.wallst.com/US/funds/overview.asp?YYY622_6m0GgCfSF7IkKdT1pfwHShuZTH3KwZb8EX/lL+8rQLcR/QKIWm+VprdhsazlKneG
  • Life Insurance Issuers Adding Riskier Investments
    In an important respect, the risks of owning private equity and debt are far greater in mutual funds, ETFs and hedge funds than life insurers. Life insurers have long-term floats or capital bases as people don’t “redeem” their capital until they die. Meanwhile mutual funds/ETFs must provide daily liquidity and hedge funds quarterly liquidity. So there shouldn’t be a run on insurer assets of panicked investors during a downturn. That would suggest they can afford to have some illiquid assets in the mix. The problems that could occur would be if they lever their investments—see AIG—or if there is actually a sudden increase in the death rate as, well, in a major pandemic. That said, levering ones bets on a seemingly safe liquid investment like mortgage bonds might be riskier than having less or no leverage on illiquid private debt. Also worth noting, while traditional insurers have been fairly conservative in their allocations historically in high quality bonds, some have chosen more equity exposure, notably Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway.
  • Life Insurance Issuers Adding Riskier Investments
    “U.S. life insurers are backing Americans’ policies with bigger slugs of riskier, higher-yielding investments. Holdings of real estate, below-investment-grade bonds, mortgage loans, private equity, hedge funds, limited partnerships and privately placed debt increased 39% from 2015 to 2020, outpacing the 26% increase in total cash and invested assets, according to a new report by Moody’s Investors Service. As a result, these so-called illiquid assets represented about 35% of insurers’ $4.04 trillion in investments as of Dec. 31, 2020, up from 32% out of $3.2 trillion in 2015.”
    (Move to riskier assets may impact market liquidity - more evident during times of stress.)
    Excerpt from WSJ (11/24/2921) - https://www.wsj.com/articles/life-insurers-use-riskier-assets-to-back-consumers-policies-11637663580 - Subscription Required
  • Retirement Spend Down Discussion
    @davidmoran, I find it interesting that "B" is still a small cap value company. A little history:
    Wallace Barnes began working for both his father Alphonso and grandfather Thomas in the family hotel and general store. The general store specialized in clocks, but it also sold drugs and general merchandise. Wallace eventually became skilled as a druggist. Partly because he and his father did not get along, however, he left to start his own druggist shop in a nearby town. Lackluster returns from that venture prompted him to try his hand at a new business, clockmaking. Wallace started out contracting to supply cut glass, doors, and parts to different clockmakers who were part of the bustling clock trade that had developed in Bristol; in fact, Bristol was known as the clockmaking capital of the United States at the time. Unfortunately, the local clock industry fell on hard times when the Panic of 1857 caused a severe depression.
    At the time of the Panic, Wallace was working for clockmaker A.S. Platt. Platt, for whom Wallace had been working at the rate of $1.25 per day, became unable to pay him for his services. Instead of cash, Barnes accepted some hoop-skirt wire as compensation. In a move that demonstrated his dealmaking savvy, Wallace hauled the wire in a wagon to nearby Albany. There, he traded the wire for a financially troubled haberdashery store. Rather than stay to run the store himself, Wallace turned around and traded it for a Missouri farm that he had never seen. Upon returning to Bristol, he managed to trade the farm for a blacksmith shop, which he sold for the handsome sum of $1,600. Incredibly, Wallace used the money to purchase the troubled A.S. Platt, the company that had given him the wire in the first place.
    https://company-histories.com/Barnes-Group-Inc-Company-History.html
  • Retirement Spend Down Discussion
    Thanks @Junkster,
    Interesting discussion on his website through many of his video interviews...here's one:
    His site:
    https://diewithzerobook.com/welcome

    Thanks bee, actually listened to it. On a somewhat related note, one topic I never see discussed is the cruelty of the constant compounding of our capital over time. Meaning, because of the compound effect the older we get the more money we have. At some point that increasing wealth gets meaningless as we are less likely and able to enjoy our nest egg, That has never been apropos than since 2008 as the markets have steadily marched higher and higher.
  • Tom Madell's November Funds Newsletter
    December Newsletter is out:
    outperforming-the-market-while-the-fed-is-on-hold
    Summary
    Since March 2020, Fed short-term rate policy has been on hold and stocks have soared.
    Such prior "on hold" periods have also led to excellent returns.
    While this hold cycle continues, Growth funds/ETFs are likely to excel the overall market.
    But even better than Growth, small cap stock funds/ETFs have outperformed during these on-hold periods.
    When the Fed does raise rates, Financial and Real Estate funds, along with Growth funds, will be your best bet.
  • Closed-end fund IRL
    This chapter on CEFs of the ICI Factbook shows that CEFs are a rather tiny segment of funds - there were 494 CEFs with total AUM of $279 billion only as of 12/2020. They are the oldest form of funds that have existed since late 1800s but are rather complex in structure and never caught on with the masses. About 38% are equity CEFs and 62% bond CEFs. Mutual funds (OEFs) came along in late 1920s and ETFs in early 1990s. https://www.icifactbook.org/21_fb_ch5.html
    Ireland IRL is quite concentrated, not leveraged, has a high ER of 1.96% (0.65% for management is OK but 1.31% "other" is high considering that there is no leverage), has high distribution due to managed-distribution policy (many CEFs do) but its large discount has persisted. One has to know more about Ireland, N Ireland, UK and EU to be exposed to IRL. Strong dollar also cuts into the return for the US investors.
  • Powell or Brainard Will Struggle to Align Hikes With Hiring Goal
    Perhaps some portion of the population that "retired" during the pandemic will stay retired long term. And, perhaps some younger people who were previously in dual worker households and who opted out of the labor force during the pandemic will remain at home long term thereby causing the the number of single worker households to increase. I suspect both of those changes in the composition of the workforce may be happening. Those issues will factor into the Fed's decision about when to start raising interest rates. That decision will also need to wrestle with the Fed's maximum employment mandate:
    Complicating the decision-making and posing a challenge for communications is the much-hailed revamping of the central bank’s strategy in August and September 2020.
    Chair Powell, Governor Brainard and colleagues agreed then it would “be appropriate” to keep borrowing costs ultra-low until maximum employment was reached, which they redefined as a “broad-based and inclusive goal.”
    One problem: The Fed’s policy framework doesn’t address how officials should balance risks between inflation and employment, an omission drawing criticism from economists such as Harvard University’s Jason Furman, who led former President Barack Obama’s Council of Economic Advisers.
    Powell or Brainard Will Struggle
  • World Stock Funds-Are they a viable alternative?
    In the Foreign Large Blend category, I like SCIEX and MIEIX*.
    The SCIEX management team also manages 30% of VWILX.
    MIEIX has below average costs, low turnover, and usually provides good downside protection.
    Mr. Ling started managing MIEIX on 10/01/2009; Mr. Webber began managing SCIEX on 03/01/2010.
    Portfolio Visualizer Results from Mar 2010 - Oct 2021
    *Morningstar fund category was Foreign Large Growth prior to 2020
    Thank you, @Observant1 as well. I looked up MIEIX and noticed a large outflow of funds this year from M*'s pages. By the way, which brokers allow to hold/trade this fund as Schwab says: "Restricted".
  • 2021 capital gains distribution estimates (mutual funds and ETFs)
    Vanguard list includes ETFs.
    Typically, you have to go to ETF sponsors' sites. There are so many ETFs and ETF sponsors. But I suppose that a thread can be started with the major ETF Sponsors, BlackRock, Vanguard, State Street, Invesco, Schwab. But then it would be lot of effort to make the list complete.
    BlackRock https://www.ishares.com/us/capital-gains-distributions
    Vanguard https://personal.vanguard.com/pdf/FADIVDAT_2021.pdf
    State Street https://www.ssga.com/us/en/intermediary/etfs/resources/documents/capital-gain-distributions
    Invesco https://www.invesco.com/us-rest/contentdetail?contentId=d575f061-c209-45fe-a6f5-cf8d9735aae5
    Schwab - I only found its general schedule https://schwab.bynder.com/m/15dbdbecf7339e7f/
  • 2021 capital gains distribution estimates (mutual funds and ETFs)
    Similar to this thread, is there a website that posts capital gain and year end distribution estimates for ETFs?
  • Old_Skeet's November 2021 Market Briefings
    Copied from the Big Bang Investing Board ... Investment Insights Section ... for posting on the MFO Board.
    This briefing is for the week ending November 19, 2021.
    The Index Review
    For the week the major equity indices finished mixed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gave back -1.38%%. the S&P 500 Stock Index gained +0.32%, the Nasdaq Composite climbed +1.24%% while the Russell 2000 Small Cap Index lost -2.85%. The three best performing major equity sectors for the week were consumer discretionary +3.74%, technology +2.39%, and utilities +0.98%. The widely followed S&P 500 Index closed the week with a dividend yield of 1.26% and is up year to date 25.08%. The widely followed US Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG) was listed with a yield of 1.83% and for the week lost -0.10%. Year to date AGG has had a negative total returned of -1.83%.
    Global Equity Compass: For the week my three best performers in my global equity compass were QQQ (US Nasdaq QQQ) +2.35%, EWT (Tiawan) +1.41% and SPY (US S&P 500) +0.32%.
    Fixed Income Compass: For the week my three best performers in my fixed income compass were TLT (20+Year US Treasury Bond) +0.70%, IEF (7 to 10 Year US Treasury Bond) +0.21% and AGG (US Agg Bond) +0.11%.
    Commodity Compass: For the week my three best performers in my commodity compass were UNG (Natural Gas) +4.11%, DBA (Agriculture) +1.62% and GLD (Gold) -1.05%.
    Producer Compass: For the week my three best performers in my producer compass were PIO (Global Water) -0.16%, MOO (Agribusness) -1.37% and TAN (Solar) -1.50%.
    Currency Compass: For the week my three best performers in my currency compass were UUP (US Dollar Bullish) +0.98%, FXB (British Sterling) +0.14%% and FXY (Japanese Yen) +0.02%
    A Blurb About Old_Skeet's Portfolio: My "All Weather Asset Allocation" of 20% cash, 40% income and 40% equity affords me everything necessary to meet my needs now being retired and in the distribution phase of investing. The benefit of this asset allocation is that it provides me sufficient income, maximizes my diversification, minimizes my volatility, and provides me long-term returns.
    The 20% held in cash area provides me ample cash should I need a cash draw over and above what my portfolio generates plus it can provide me the capital necessary to fund a special investment position (spiff) should I choose to open one during a stock market pullback or to take advantage of seasonal investment trends. In addition, cash helps stabilize a portfolio during stock market volatility. Example of investments held in this area are currency, money market mutual funds, FDIC bank deposits and CD's. Generally, this area benefits from rising interest rates.
    The 40% held in the income area provides me ample income generation to meet my income needs in retirement. It is a well diversified area that incorporates a good number of income generating type funds. Some examples of investments held in this area are AZNAX, BAICX & PONAX .
    The 40% held in the equity area provides me dividend income along with some growth, that equities generally provide, which, over time, helps to offset the effects of inflation. Some examples of investments held in this area are AMECX, IDIVX & SPECX.
    From their neutral weightings, 40% each for my stock and bond areas, overweights (underweights) are allowed at + (or -) 5% with rebalance thresholds set at + (or -) 2% from desired weightings while cash is allowed to float. Thus the maximum weighting for both stocks and bonds could be as high as 47% each with their minimum weightings being as low as 33% while cash is allowed to float with a weighting range of 6% to 34%. So what seemed, at first glance, to be a very conservative asset allocation does allow for positioning based upon market reads along with some other influencing factors. Currently, I am overweight equity through the engagement of a spiff position and a little underweight in my fixed income sleeve due to anticipated rising interest rates.
    Generally, for my income distributions, I take no more than a sum equal to what one half of my five year average total return has been. In this way, I have found, principal grows over time as well as the size of my disbursements. My objective is to continue to grow my principal along with increasing my income stream.
    Articles of Investment Interest
    Is Investing an Art, a Science, or a Craft?
    https://www.gurufocus.com/news/969787/seth-klarman-is-investing-an-art-a-science-or-a-craft
    Europe Lockdown Fears Knock Stocks, Spark Dash for Bonds
    https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/global-markets-wrapup-3-pix-2021-11-19/
    The Big Green Push to Get Rid of Coal Had the Opposite Effect
    https://mishtalk.com/economics/the-big-green-push-to-get-rid-of-coal-had-the-opposite-effect
    Wall Street Forecasts for the U.S. Dollar and 10-year Treasury Yield in 2022
    https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/wall-street-forecasts-us-dollar-10-year-treasury-yield-2022-2021-11-18/
    Old_Skeet's Favored Reference Links
    Short Volume S&P 500 Index ... https://nakedshortreport.com/company/SPY
    Breadth Reading ... https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPXA50R&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p25768973625
    S&P 500 Chart, Elder Ray System ... https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p20881173280
    T/A Stock Opinion, SPY ... https://www.barchart.com/etfs-funds/quotes/SPY/opinion
    T/A Bond Opinion, AGG ... https://www.barchart.com/etfs-funds/quotes/AGG/opinion
    Thanks for stopping by and reading; and, I wish all "Good Investing."
    Old_Skeet
  • Social Security Claiming Strategies - Claim Early & Invest
    I have seen several posters thru the years providing detailed spread sheets comparing taking at 62 and investing vs wait and collect the benefit at a later date. Most "take it now" analysis forgets to reduce the investment portfolio by the tax owed on the SS benefit since most retirees collect other sources of income. They also fail to factor in the tax owed from the SS income + cap gains from the investment each year. If one waits to receive benefits, the base benefit will increase risk free.... this year at a 8% + 5.9% COLA with zero taxes owed obviously. The higher the base, the higher the COLA increase for the rest of your life. Possibility exists for significant COLA next few years. The other side of the coin is longevity... which IMO trumps everything. Most of my good friends died suddenly.
  • Grantham’s at it again …
    Mr. Grantham's investments are quite aggressive despite his gloomy market predictions.
    “This is going on as far as the eye can see. It’s an unfair advantage for green investing, Grantham said.
    There may be a bubble that will affect this for a year or two, but it will come back bigger and better than other groups because of this tailwind. This is going to be the most important investment theme for the rest of your life.”

    "To exploit this green boom, Grantham is making risky bets.
    Venture capital and other private investments now compose more than three-quarters of the $1.4 billion in assets he manages across a foundation, a charitable trust and his personal holdings."
    "Grantham says his venture-capital portfolio has returned 19% annually over the past decade, including a 102% jump in 2020, a 'watershed' year."

    Link
  • Old_Skeet's November 2021 Market Briefings
    Copied from the Big Bang Investing Board ... Market Insights ... Bonds Selling Off.
    Hi guys,
    Thus far, it is high quality bonds and long term maturities that are taking the hit in Old_Skeet's fixed income compass with AGG being in the middle of the pack. Short term and high yield are the better performers. Still, it might be a while before I become a buyer in my fixed income sleeve as I feel we still have a ways to go on the downward slope. Plus, I've got some year end capital gain distributions coming in December on some of the funds held in my fixed income sleeve. I'm thinking lower prices lie ahead as there still remains issues within the FOMC itself. What will Biden do? Who will become the lead Wizard? For now ... I sit ... and, I watch.
    Wishing all ... "Good Investing."
    Old_Skeet
  • Vanguards estimates
    When looking at retirement funds, investor & institutional , why the large difference in % dividend ?
    VITVX 2.87% VS VTXVX 9.75% 2015 year.
    VITWX 1.93 % VS VTWNX 13.94% 2020 year
    Thanks, Derf
  • November Commentary is live!
    Actually your post summed up the dilemma facing bond investors today:stay with intermediate and long term bonds, hoping for lower yields and capital gains from price increases. Or stay invested in MMA and ultrashort bond funds while anticipating higher yields. I got scared by the rate activity this week and pared PTIAX and redeployed to TRBUX RPHYX SQIFX and a timid allocation to PEGAX .
  • RMDs
    RMDs for all T-IRAs can be combined and taken from ANY ONE T-IRA. Brokers'/funds' calculations are OPTIONAL services they offer - I subscribe to those to just double-check my own calculations. Some firms also have contractual signups for calculating AND distributing RMDs but they are good only for straightforward situations.
    RMDs for all 403b can be combined and taken from ANY ONE 403b.
    Then the spoiler. RMDs for 401k must be taken from each 401k (i.e. they cannot be combined like the 2 situations above).
    Note that the RMD tables are changing on 1/1/22, and the IRS will come out with 2022 RMD worksheets LATER so as not to confuse people. But the new RMD tables were decided in 2019/2020, and were initially to go into effect on 1/1/21, but that was delayed to 1/1/22.
    RMDs from Inherited IRAs - the old rule requited annual RMDs. But with the IRA stretch gone, the IRAs must be depleted within 10 years and one can do it in any way, gradually, or all at once by the 10th year.