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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Bogle: We Need to Fix the Bond Index
    Reply to @bee: Sure, I have my mistakes. I certainly did not expect to have interest rates to continue to go down and long bonds appreciate further. You took a big risk and won until now.
    The reason I said You should look for better funds is that Permanent Portfolio funds is pretty much one man operation. I am not sure if they have expertise to properly analyze corporate bonds. I believe he is mostly relying in outside research. The long term performance of this fund is not good. Take a look at its chart since 2003. Only in 2012 the fund started to perform differently. It looks like it changed its strategy. Right now it is investing in shorter term high yield bonds. It used to take much less credit risk before. (And your post from Q4 report confirms that)
    If you are looking for a good corporate bond take a look at a bond shop like PIMCO, Loomis Sayles, Metropolitan West/TCW, Doubleline. Fidelity, T. Rowe Price and Vanguard has good bond offerings as well.
    I currently hold 3 specific bond funds. PONDX, MWHYX, MAINX. The other half of my bond exposure is through GLRBX and FRIFX. This mix is not exactly in line with the article. GLRBX provides most of my government bond and some high quality corporates. FRIFX provides exposure to REIT bonds and CMBS. PONDX currently provides most of Securitized (MBS/ABS etc) and some corporates. MWHYX provides low quality corporates (high yield). MAINX provides regional EM exposure.
    Update: Looking at the recent performance of PRVBX, it has momentum with the new strategy. On surface, it is taking less credit risk by choosing higher grade corporates along with higher yield bonds. I am not sure how long the momentum is going to last. I think you can use this fund for now to dilute a AGG bond index fund but I am not sure if that is what you want to do. Thus, I have removed my suggestions for funds in previous version of this article as the suggestions (with lower government exposure but not zero) were in line of the article but not necessarily alternative for PRVBX.
  • my plus side funds this week
    Lots of good funds listed in this post, seems to me, but some can be very volatile.
    Below is tabulation with emphasis on lifetime downside and drawdown performance. I broke into older and younger bunches, so not direct comparison over same period, just trying to get feel for up versus down.
    First the older bunch, all living through 2008, sorted by Martin Ratio:
    image
    Next, younger bunch, from 2009, sorted by Sortino ratio (since we've basically not had much in way of drawdowns):
    image
    PONDX amazing of course. BPLEX, MAPIX, PRHSX, MACSX all have strong returns and good downside protection. Investor is right about extreme ER for Robeco's LS fund...high even for this already high category. I added WBLFX, which David profiled this month...a tale of two funds.
    See that PETDX was basically left for dead in 2009 with Max Drawdown MaxDD of -73%. I for one could probably not tolerate such a decline, even if it was "only" on paper. Ditto for MAPTX and PRNHX.
    Please beware of RYOIX. It has the highest Ulcer Index of any fund on list. Handle with care.
    As for the younger funds, MAINX continues to post impressive numbers. So does PGDIX. I added AQRIX, ARLSX, and COBYX to list.
    I let out a sigh thinking about WBMIX. Unless things pick-up next week, April numbers will not look so good. If I remember, Mr. Redleaf has been shorting high yield bonds and he remains bullish financials. More on Whitebox later.
  • my plus side funds this week
    I only bought into this fund a couple weeks ago (sold some of my PRNEX to buy it), but RYOIX was my best performer in this down week. It's been sailing along in good weeks and bad. And I'm always pleasantly amazed how well MACSX navigates a steady return.
    In a rocky week, these are the funds having positive returns in my portfolio this week:
    RYOIX +2.6%
    MACSX +.6%
    GASFX +.3%
    MAINX +.2%
    PONDX +.2%
    PGDPX +.1%
    MWTRX +.1%
    Not in my portfolio, but I have it on my watch list because of all the press it was getting on this board, WBMIX. I thought this fund was suppose to protect capital in rough times. That fund was down -4.4% for the week. I guess I would never buy into a fund where I don't understand where it fits.
  • Thoughts on International Funds
    Mona,
    Some of us, including David, sold MACSX and bought MAINX and MAPIX (bought, if already not there in our portfolios). In my case, I replaced MACSX with MAINX (I already had MAPIX) and adjusting the stock/bond exposure appropriately using these two funds (MAPIX and MAINX). In addition, I bought SFGIX (kinda true replacement for MACSX in my portfolio) as I liked the idea of investing MACSX style in the entire EM area. At this point, SFGIX is mostly into Asia but manager is planning to make it a true EM Growth and Income fund as opportunities open up elsewhere. I hope it would also replicate stellar perfomrance of MACSX.
  • MSCFX down 3.85% 4/15/2013
    Reply to @Investor:
    Looking at some other profiled funds:
    COBYX -0.73%
    SFGIX -1.63%
    MAPIX -1.46%
    MACSX -1.08%
    MAINX -0.18%
    APPLX -2.87%
    Long/Short or Hedged equity style investing funds:
    ARLSX -1.54%
    RLSFX -1.61%
    WBLSX +0.10%
    MFLDX -1.91%
    FMLSX -2.52%
    BPLSX -0.28%
    BPRRX -1.17%
  • MSCFX down 3.85% 4/15/2013
    Yes, MSCFX was down the most, of the funds I own.
    In addition:
    MAPOX -1.41%
    MAPIX -1.46%
    MAINX -0.18%
    MACSX -1.08%
    SFGIX -1.63%
    TRAMX -2.17%
    PREMX -0.14%
    DLFNX was UP! Just a penny, at +0.09%
    .......And at last, the share price is back ABOVE the price where I bought-in, at $11.39 per share!
    My full portfolio was down 0.90%. Hurts.
  • Bonds Facing First Q1 Loss Since 2006
    Reply to @AndyJ:
    Bond funds the family holds are:
    PTTRX
    PYGFX
    DIBRX Dreyfus has neg. return for the year.
    MAINX
    FSICX
    TGTRX
    RPHYX
    PFODX
    LSBRX
  • Calamos Long /Short Fund in registration
    Hank ---CVSIX had a distribution on 3/21 according to Morningstar. (Saw unusal drop in MAPIX and MAINX that same day but was relieved to find a 3/21 distribution date listed on the Matthews web site.)
  • Is it too late to start a position in bonds?
    If I had a lot of cash, I would consider RPHYX for some of it to earn some return on it. David has a good analysis of this fund and there was a good discussion held with the managers. Read the fund profile and listen to the interview.
    BTW, it is not that you do not have bonds. You do have significant amount of bonds in your balanced funds. If you want to put the cash to use, consider adding some more to your balanced funds and let the managers manage the duration/credit quality of bonds. For the rest you can keep it in RPHYX.
    If you still want some other bond funds consider the following:
    MAINX - An Asia Region focused Income fund. David has conducted Interview with manager as well. Read the profile and listen to the interview.
    SUBYX - Unconstrained Bond fund. The managers has build a bond fund with 'negative duration'. Read David's profile as well - SUBFX is the instl. class.
    FRIFX - This is actually not a pure bond fund. Consider it as a Real-Estate balanced fund. It has stocks, bonds, preferred and convertibles.
  • Is it too late to start a position in bonds?
    Soupkitchen
    A recent job changed prompted a rollover to Fidelity so in effect " I started over" with allocation and funds. When I was done the mix turned out to be 40% foreign, 20% US and 40% cash /bonds. Some of the funds I used are bond funds and some were allocation funds with bonds or flexibility. Keeping cash is something I do also. Some of the funds might work for you.Funds are:
    Matthews Asia Strategic Income(MAINX)
    Fidelity Strategic Income(FSICX) 4 distinct areas of the bond world
    Templeton Global Total Return(TGTRX)
    Riverpark Short Term HY(RPHYX)
    Northern Global Tactical(BBALX) 30%+ bonds at this time w/flexibilty.
    Payden Value Leaders(PYVLX) A stock fund with a yield over 4%.
    Art
  • Looking for advice
    Reply to @fidia: Wow. You do indeed carry a lot of interest rate risk. I would keep PREMX and PTTDX and dump the rest.
    In particular, get rid of DEEIX, PGOVX immediately. If interest rates rise even a minuscule amount these will be hurt the most.
    With your OAKBX and PRWCX you are about 18% Domestic Equity and 2% International Equity making the current Equity allocation 20%.
    I think you may be able to increase your international allocation a bit and maybe bump up total equity allocation around 30%.
    Here is what I am thinking for you.
    OAKBX 15%
    PRWCX 15%
    FMIJX 7%
    MAPIX 7%
    PTTDX 12%
    SUBYX 12%
    MAINX 10%
    PREMX 10%
    RPHYX 12%
    According to M*, this portfolio has about 18% US Equity, 15% Intl. Equity, about 49% bonds (direct or indirect through balanced funds), 11% cash and about 5% other. The type of bonds should handle interest rate hikes better. If you want more conservative consider replacing OAKBX either with GLRBX or VWINX.
  • Looking for advice
    In case it might work for you, these are the dividend paying equity funds I own. Couldn't hurt to research them for yourself: SFGIX, MAPIX, MACSX, MAINX and MAPOX. The BOND funds I own, PREMX and DLFNX, pay MONTHLY.
    MAPOX is a "balanced" fund, owning both (domestic) equities and bonds. I do believe right now, it's about 30% bonds. It has performed VERY well for me, given its "mission" as a "moderate" risk balanced fund. I bought-in last year.
  • Looking for advice
    Ya, I would caution against any big wholesale moves. As noted above, everything is pretty much riding high right now. Not a good time to buy equities, if you're not already in. My bond funds include PREMX, too. My others are MAINX and DLFNX. They are slowly, slowly, falling by one or two pennies a day. I don't like it, but I remind myself that there were reasons why I selected the funds that I did. More precisely, my bond funds are up and down by a penny or two each day. They ARE definitely lower than they were a few months ago, though. Things rotate. Bonds suck lately, equities have been full steam ahead--- though not in a straight line! Things have indeed been volatile.
    If you're gonna make a move with bonds, I might just lighten-up on Treasuries and acquire a fund that holds some corporates. What I've been reading lately is that those are not the big bargain they were in the past year or two, but not OVERPRICED, either. But bond yields on corporates have been diminishing. I stuck it out through the Crash and the Great Recession, too. Just don't be jerking yourself around, this way and that. It's a market, remember: there is no PERFECT portfolio. Cripes, I sure do know THAT to be true. My "portfolio construction" along the way has been filtered, limited and subject to too many vagaries to even try to mention. But I like where I'm at. I'm heavy in Asia, and heavy in bonds of different sorts. I suppose the flavor of bonds I do NOT own would be government bonds from the DEVELOPED world, out beyond the USA. My DLFNX is heavy into corporate bonds, but also US Treasuries... If you forsake equities altogether, there's no way you'll beat inflation. "Break a leg!"
  • market at 5 yrs high - question for the board
    What I'm currently doing varies by account:
    401K:
    -new money is going into PIFZX. As I'm looking to retire within 2 years, this falls within "bucket 1" within that concept. The equity funds in the 401K get a 20% haircut when they hit a pre-defined amount, with the trimmings going to PIFZX.
    IRA Rollover:
    -equities get the same 20% haircut at pre-defined levels, but the trimmings here are now going to fixed income....which is now a difficult decision. Currently it's MAINX.
    -the divi's from the current fixed income funds are not automatically reinvested, but are collected and invested monthly. Currently these are going into SUBFX.
    Pre-tax:
    -I have a handful of individual equity divi-payors...these get automatically re-invested into the same equities
    -equity mutual funds get the same 20% haircut as I described previously into bucket #1 holdings....the trimmings now go into either a muni, or PAUDX (it seemed like a good idea at the time)
    So...this was a long winded answer to your question. In a 57/33/10 mix in retirement accounts, I'm really not doing too much differently simply because of where the market currently resides relative to a 5 year high. I am just filling my buckets....I currently have 3 years of bucket 1 funding.
    I am not smart enough to figure out if it will be up or down a year from now, so I figure a reasonably well distributed portfolio with some prudent re-allocation fits the bill for me.
  • market at 5 yrs high - question for the board
    Well, I'm 50/50 stocks/bonds or thereabouts. 58 years old, wife still working. Romneycare in Massachusetts already. We're a step ahead of Obamacare. It's better than nothing by about a half-step. (Health insurance is radically screwed-up, so let's force everyone to buy-in. Sure. Perfect.) I'm pretty happy from day to day with my portfolio's behavior. I'm staying the course. Biggest bets in PREMX and MAPIX. Domestic bonds covered with DLFNX. US domestic equities covered with MAPOX and MSCFX. The latter--- after today's record high--- is up just a hair short of 30% for me since buying-in, in April of 2012. Others: MAINX, TRAMX, SFGIX and MACSX. "Break a leg," if you make any changes.
  • New Thread: Open Discussion (What are you buying, selling, considering?)
    Last two weeks, all tweaks, no big-picture portfolio changes:
    * Sold short-term tactical-trade shares in VPU, utilities, for a modest gain; ~ 2-3 times a yr. I do a sector trade like that one, limited to max. of 5% of port. Nice entertainment value, but that's about it.
    * Added to PRBLX, PIGIX, & PRFHX.
    * Kept up a DCA plan into existing positions in MAPIX & MAINX, to slowly bump up Asia % of portfolio.
  • New Thread: Open Discussion (What are you buying, selling, considering?)
    I will be sticking with my current choices. I own only 9 funds, but have big barbells at each end with PREMX and MAPIX. I let the monthly div. from PREMX and DLFNX just ride, reinvesting it all, including these others, too: I get quarterly divs. from MAINX, MAPIX, MAPOX, and semiannually from MACSX and SFGIX. That leaves TRAMX (just $3,000.00 shifted from PREMX bonds into a tiny speculative move into Middle East equities last year) and MSCFX, which pay once a year in Dec.
    I've owned MACSX since 2003. MAPIX since 2009, as I recall. PREMX since 2010. In 2012, I picked up MAINX, SFGIX, TRAMX, MAPOX, MSCFX and DLFNX. As I said above, I am not even tapping into the divs. and cap. gains at all, yet. Normally once per year, we "raid" MACSX, after letting it build-up over the prior 12 months.
  • Portfolios-Your top 3 holdings?
    Top 3: (I hold just 9 funds, total. The lion's share is in tax-sheltered retirement stuff.)
    PREMX 40%
    MAPIX 35%
    MAPOX 3.3%
    All the others are at 3% or less: SFGIX, TRAMX, MACSX, MAINX, MSCFX, DLFNX.
  • Choosing a good International fund
    I'm looking for an all around international fund for my Roth IRA. So many choices makes it difficult decision.
    I am looking for a low ER, NTF, mostly equity, not too large, good all around fund with a good manager.
    What are your top two choices?
    Currently I hold FEDDX and MAINX.
    I have been looking, FIGFX, Artisan funds, Oakmark, Harbor and others discussed here, but feel at some point I just have to choose.
    DPN
  • Are bond funds still a safe investment?
    ***OH, yes, I forgot: MAINX is a bond fund. So I own domestics, foreign and emerging markets bonds, along with a variety of stocks, too.