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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Is the AI trade a speculative bubble waiting to unravel?
    Perhaps we should ask AI? Ahahah
    Key figures on AI's impact:
    -75% of S&P 500 gains: Since the launch of ChatGPT in November 2022, AI-related stocks drove 75% of the gains in the S&P 500, according to a September 2025 analysis by JPMorgan.
    -60% of 2025 market returns: In 2025, approximately 60% of market returns were attributed to AI-related stocks.
    -Dominance of the "Magnificent Seven": Much of this growth is tied to a handful of companies, including Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, NVIDIA, and Tesla.
    -Through the first three quarters of 2025, this group added $3.1 trillion in market capitalization.
    -Sector-specific outperformance: A Morningstar analysis showed that a basket of 38 AI stocks significantly outperformed the overall market in the third quarter of 2025, gaining 15.7% compared to the market's 7.7% return.
    I don't know about you guys, but I am not feeling any better after reading that! If true, this bubble has been forming for 3 years already. And is highly focused on the usual suspects.
  • Is the AI trade a speculative bubble waiting to unravel?
    To be clear, I don't doubt that there is a future in AI. How that plays out, I have no idea.
    What I question, and several here have commented upon, is the enthusiasm and trajectory at this point in the process. What it might lead to if it doesn't produce relatively immediate and massive change (and profits). And what role AI is currently playing in the year's market gains.
    I do see a lot of parallels to Dotcom. Working in telecom, I was right in the middle of all of that. From my perspective, it was all about the routers and optical fiber. Eventually, the big players bought up all that excess fiber capacity at pennies on the dollar. And routers became commodities. Debt also played a huge role. Selling the hardware to start ups, and financing the purchases, turned out to be a big mistake. All sorts of accounting tricks were also employed to make profits look much better than they really were.
    Then reality set in.
  • "Core" Bond Fund Replacement
    Here is the direct QDSIX to BND compare
    https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/fund-performance?s=y&sl=3hYp9dTgZx25fW564h0zrq
    Key take-aways
    CAGR of 12.59% vs. -0.43%
    MaxDD 4.45% vs. 17.54%
    Sortino 2.85 vs. -0.64
    Short story is that QDSIX has blown the lights out of BND across various time periods since inception in 2020 at significantly lower volatility.
  • "Core" Bond Fund Replacement
    @Bitzer
    - QDSIX primarily. Slightly higher volatility than BND but much higher Sortino and returns since inception in 2020 and much lower max dd.
    - I would also consider APHPX as a solid bond sub
  • Is the AI trade a speculative bubble waiting to unravel?
    Some of this has been mentioned in other threads here. What is somewhat surprising to me is how many are all starting to speak up. So, I thought this might deserve its own thread.
    https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/03/goldman-sachs-ceo-david-solomon-warns-stock-market-drawdown-is-coming.html
    -Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon said AI presented opportunities but that some investors were overlooking “things you should be skeptical about.”
    -Speaking at Italian Tech Week in Turin, Italy, he said a “drawdown” was likely to hit stock markets in the coming two years.
    -“I think that there will be a lot of capital that’s deployed that will turn out to not deliver returns,” he said.
    “I wouldn’t be surprised if in the next 12 to 24 months, we see a drawdown with respect to equity markets ...and when that happens, people won’t feel good.”
    Amazon founder Jeff Bezos said Friday that artificial intelligence is currently in an “industrial bubble.”
    Karim Moussalem, chief investment officer of equities at Selwood Asset Management, meanwhile, warned of “enormous risks” on the horizon for the AI trade which could rapidly unravel. “The AI trade is beginning to resemble one of the great speculative manias of market history,”
    Veteran investor Leon Cooperman told CNBC that we are in the late innings of a bull market where bubbles can form — something Warren Buffett had warned about.
    Most believe there is money to be made, but that the euphoria may be overblown.
  • "Core" Bond Fund Replacement
    The First Trust Alternative Opportunities Fund, known as VFLEX, is a closed-end interval mutual fund. It aims to achieve long-term capital appreciation by generating positive absolute returns across various market cycles.
    The fund primarily invests in alternative asset classes, including private equity, private credit, real estate, and hedge funds.
    Well, that sure sounds like an adventure...
  • giroux m* update
    It has underperformed both VWELX and VBINX
    ???
    PRWCX 5 year performance (through 9/26/25): 11.65% (annualized)
    VWELX 5 year performance (through 9/26/25): 10.52%
    VBINX 5 year performance (through 9/26/25): 9.25%
    Portfolio Visualizer gives similar results when looking at returns from Sept 2020 - Aug 2025.

    That’s interesting. Appreciate your comment. I used Chart Fund on M*; Growth including Dividends; 5 year period. For some reason it provided me with different results and I’m not sure why. Definitely wasn’t knowingly providing false information.
    Looks like you did something wrong. As has been noted, M*$10k growth chart shows PRWCX +74% and the other two almost 10 and 20 points behind. (Assuming I am doing it right.)
  • "Core" Bond Fund Replacement
    Although I can't wholeheartedly recommend WAPSX (a Franklin Templeton Core+ bond fund sitting in my IRA) because its metrics can't compare to those discussed already, it does produce consistent returns. For the past decade, for every $50k, it returns about $200/month ($2400/yr), or about 4.8%, which I reinvest. It has had negative growth since Covid (2020) but it is beginning to climb from the valley over the past year. Perhaps it is a risk, but since it is at a low price point (around $9.30/sh), it may be an option to consider.
    Lots of food for thought in this thread. Thx.
  • Mutual Fund ETF Share Classes
    It would be great if Capital Group did ETFs of their OEFs and allowed us to convert into those share classes w/o tax ramifications. Maybe one day?
  • giroux m* update
    It has underperformed both VWELX and VBINX
    ???
    PRWCX 5 year performance (through 9/26/25): 11.65% (annualized)
    VWELX 5 year performance (through 9/26/25): 10.52%
    VBINX 5 year performance (through 9/26/25): 9.25%
    Portfolio Visualizer gives similar results when looking at returns from Sept 2020 - Aug 2025.
    That’s interesting. Appreciate your comment. I used Chart Fund on M*; Growth including Dividends; 5 year period. For some reason it provided me with different results and I’m not sure why. Definitely wasn’t knowingly providing false information.
  • Tariffs
    Just because prices are not going parabolic like 2022, doesn't mean that persistent inflation in the 3-4% range isn't going to wear people down. Tariffs are not going to go away because the FED lowers rates a little. On the contrary, inflation may actually heat up.
    And then the FED may need to raise again. This is all a self-inflicted wound. What impact would a rate reversion have on markets, equities and bond funds? A real fly in the ointment.
    Who saw where a cameraman caught Bessent texting with the Agriculture Secretary, that after handing Argentina $20 billion U.S. tax dollars, it backfired and China is scooping up their soybeans at the expense of American farmers?
    I wonder who put the idea of an Argentine bailout in Trump's ear?
    "However, Bessent’s announcement had massive economic benefits for one American: billionaire hedge fund manager Rob Citrone, who has placed large bets on the future of the Argentine economy. Citrone, the co-founder of Discovery Capital Management, is also a friend and former colleague of Bessent—a fact that has not been previously reported in American media outlets. Citrone, by his own account, helped make Bessent very wealthy."
  • Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau.
    I too expect further rates cuts, and then very possibly a reckoning. With various labor shortfalls as we deport workers and limit visa availability, inflation already knocking at the door of 3%, lofty market valuations and rising credit defaults, there are a lot of things that make the future a bit worrisome.
    My portfolio has earned almost 65% since Jan 1, 2024. Giving back a large chunk of those gains is more concerning that squeezing every drop of juice. I expect lower FED funds rates to juice bond and stock valuations, until something simply doesn't work any more. maybe inflation starts to rise changing the FED perspective, or anything really, then it will be "Katie bar the door", as folks rush to the exits.
    As I have stated here before, I am my lowest equity allocation in my life, and considering going lower. The safe bet may be quality bond funds for the short term. Something I have started owning again for the first time since 2019.
  • Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau.
    One reason bond prices are increasing is that many investors expect further Fed rate cuts.
    What would transpire if inflation became worrisome and the Fed hiked rates in the months ahead?
    It appears that certain bonds are "priced for perfection."
    The spread for IG corporate bonds was only 0.74% in September — the lowest level since 1998.
    The spread for junk-rated bonds is about 2.75% which is near the record low of 2007.
    Private credit defaults have been on the rise with a default rate of 9.5% in July before receding slightly.
    “'There’s been a very positive investment environment for a long time,
    with a large amount of money and a lot of optimism,' said Howard Marks,
    co-chairman of investment firm Oaktree Capital Management, which specializes in credit investing.
    He said that can lead to high pricing and declining quality.
    'The worst loans are made at the best of times.'”
  • giroux m* update
    It has underperformed both VWELX and VBINX
    ???
    PRWCX 5 year performance (through 9/26/25): 11.65% (annualized)
    VWELX 5 year performance (through 9/26/25): 10.52%
    VBINX 5 year performance (through 9/26/25): 9.25%
    Portfolio Visualizer gives similar results when looking at returns from Sept 2020 - Aug 2025.
  • Foreigners Buying US Stocks at Record Pace
    A few thoughts come to mind . . .
    I would like to see a breakdown of where that money is coming from. Is it some sort of flight to safety> Or is it wanting to get in on the AI boom?
    I have a feeling that 30% of our equity market invested from overseas is going to be less sticky than money invested domestically, i.e., it might be likely to flee fastest at any sign of trouble.
    Considering the political drift of this thread, this part of the article caught my eye:
    While returns have been solid in 2025, at the index level, the purchases haven’t been as lucrative as they would have been if executed in other major stock markets. The S&P 500 has underperformed equity benchmarks in Canada, Mexico, Brazil, Japan and China, both in local currency and in US dollar terms.
    The MSCI World Index has advanced 15% this year and is currently on pace to outperform the S&P 500 for the first time since 2017. The MSCI All-Country World Index with US stocks excluded is outperforming more sharply, rising 22% compared with 13% for the S&P 500.
    Well. That's interesting. We're setting records, and all those sleepy country markets are whupping us.
    So I asked my friend Perplexity to scrape the collective wisdom of the internet to learn when, and under what conditions, international equities have out-performed US equities. Perplexity does a nice job of showing the resources it scrapes for its answers.
    The long answer is at the dinky linky. For now I'll skip the history lesson and quote the section on salubrious conditions since foreign beats domestic 40% of the time.
    Conditions Favoring Foreign Equity Outperformance
    Valuation Discounts: Foreign stocks are often priced at substantial discounts to US peers, sometimes at as much as a 35% discount, making them more attractive on a forward-return basis, especially during periods when US valuations are elevated.
    Currency Effects: Periods of US dollar weakness tend to amplify returns for US investors holding foreign equities. Conversely, a strong dollar often dampens relative foreign returns.
    Cyclical Macro Shifts: International equities benefit when global economic growth prospects outside the US are stable or improving, particularly when the US is facing recessions, stagflation, or policy uncertainty (e.g., tariff shocks, higher US interest rates).
    Sector Leadership: Foreign markets with strong sector tailwinds (such as renewable energy in Europe or manufacturing in Asia) can outperform when those sectors are globally competitive.
    Policy and Structural Reforms: Governments outside the US with fiscal capacity and willingness to stimulate growth can boost earnings for local stocks.
    US Market Headwinds: Foreign equities tend to outperform when US equities are affected by factors such as policy-driven uncertainty, overvaluation, or a narrow concentration of gains among a few mega-cap stocks. [In regard to that last insight I'll add that we've boiled our market down from a nifty fifty to a mag7]
  • Do You Really Need 'Private' Investments? (Independent Vanguard Adviser, 05.27.2025)
    Daniel P. Wiener, former editor of the defunct The Independent Adviser for Vanguard Investors newsletter, shares his private market investing experiences.
    "Private equity, venture capital, private debt, real estate investment trusts, and their deformed spawn
    are the current rage, in large measure because the gates are opening for smaller investors.
    At the same time, the thrill seems to be gone for many institutional investors who have had their fill
    of these illiquid, opaque, and often poorly performing alternatives to equities, bonds, mutual funds,
    and exchange-traded funds."

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/savingandinvesting/how-alternative-investments-can-go-wrong-for-average-investors/ar-AA1No0Mk
  • "Core" Bond Fund Replacement
    My question starts with why do you need a core bond fund?
    I looked at CBLDX and IMO, it's better than all the funds above.
    I checked from 1-1-2020 and it's number one.
    For one year it's not number 1, but it's still among the top.
    And it's the best risk/reward fund, AKA Sharpe.
    It still pays about 5.3% yearly dist based on last month.
    The manager's track record is known.
    Thanks, FD1000.
    To complement my equity holdings, I'm seeking a primary bond fund with the potential
    for higher future returns than DODIX or BCOIX without assuming too much risk.
    CBLDX is an excellent fund and David Sherman is a talented portfolio manager.
    However, CBLDX has a greater allocation to below investment-grade bonds
    than I'm comfortable holding within my primary bond fund.
    I am considering this fund as a potential satellite position
    with a considerably smaller allocation in a different account.
    I also like RCTIX and ICMUX for this role.
    CBLDX as of 06/30/2025 (M*)
    BB - 10.79%
    B - 24.24%
    Below B - 0.20%
    Not Rated - 26.75%
    RCTIX as of 08/31/2025 (River Canyon)
    BB - 14%
    B - 22%
    Below B - 10%
    Not Rated - 19%
    ICMUX as of 06/30/2025 (Intrepid Capital)
    BB - 30.8%
    B - 30.7%
    Below B - 7.3%
    Not Rated - 20.9%
  • Low Risk Bond OEFs for Maturing CDs
    davidf: i believe fd once held egrix in a taxable account for that very reason, so he could sell it before the x-div time and avoid all the taxable distributions you get from a monthly payer and the annual EGRIX one. he'd still have to deal w/ short term gains on the sale if there were any, of course, but i think he figured they'd be less than the annual distribution at the very least. or some such. i could be totally wrong.
  • "Core" Bond Fund Replacement
    My question starts with why do you need a core bond fund?
    I looked at CBLDX and IMO, it's better than all the funds above.
    I checked from 1-1-2020 and it's number one.
    For one year it's not number 1, but it's still among the top.
    And it's the best risk/reward fund, AKA Sharpe.
    It still pays about 5.3% yearly dist based on last month.
    The manager's track record is known.
  • High Earners Age 50 and Older Are About to Lose 'Catch-Up' privileges in 401Ks
    the IRS is looking to restrict retirement savings
    The IRS had little to do with this other than restate what Congress required. Give credit where credit is due.
    SECURE 2.0 introduced two notable changes to this system:
    mandatory Roth treatment for catch-up contributions by high earners for taxable years beginning after Dec. 31, 2023
    optional "super catch-up" contributions for participants ages 60 to 63 for taxable years beginning after Dec. 31, 2024
    https://www.hklaw.com/en/insights/publications/2025/05/irs-proposes-key-changes-to-roth-catch-up-contributions
    As a practical matter, the executive branch does have limited discretion in carrying out what Congress says, especially in making sure that the law can actually be executed:
    Due to concerns that plan sponsors and recordkeepers would be unable to comply with the mandatory Roth catch-up requirement by the original deadline, Notice 2023-62 provided a transition period that delayed the effective date until Jan. 1, 2026 (although, a later effective date may apply for collectively bargained plans).
    Even Congress isn't restricting retirement savings; see e.g. rforno's post above. What Congress has always done is to restrain the government's largesse by limiting contributions. That's far and away the larger restriction. And with its new "super catch up" provision, Congress is enabling earners to shelter of another $11K of assets that would otherwise sit in taxable accounts.
    Still, not to worry if you're a really high earner (read business partner). Congress continues to give them favorable tax treatment on profit sharing (carried interest) and even on catch up contributions:
    No FICA Wages, No Roth Mandate. Participants without FICA wages (e.g., partners who have only self-employment income) are not subject to the Roth requirement.