Per "Morning Brief" link posted by @Mark:
"Ambiguity is the No. 1 enemy of a market," former director of the National Economic Council and current IBM (IBM) vice chair Gary Cohn said on Opening Bid. "When a company creates ambiguity in their earnings profile, in their growth profile, in their business model, the market will punish that stock. When politicians, legislators create ambiguity in the way that taxes are going to work, the way that capital gains are going to work, the way that they're going impose tariffs, they create ambiguity to a market and the market as a whole reprices."
But, hey, keep dip-buying.

Some of you may recall my unease over the years at the fact that we no longer manufacture many types of electrical transformers that are absolutely critical to any large grid system. Many of those transformers are special-order items currently made only in China, and that have lengthy time-frames to design and manufacture.
Following are excerpts from a recent Wall Street Journal report, which goes into some detail on this issue:
Transformers used in power grids are especially vulnerable to trade disruptions

America’s power grid is due for some big investments. Tariffs could now make that much costlier.
As surging power demand from places such as data centers is set to strain the system, transformers, the nuts and bolts of the power system, look particularly vulnerable. These are devices that step up or down voltages as electricity moves from power plants to homes and factories. New ones are also required every time a new source of electricity—whether wind, solar or natural gas—connects to the grid. The lack of these components can therefore hold up more power from being brought online.
The power industry has already been experiencing a shortage of transformers, for which demand is expected to jump even more in the coming years. Suppliers have been reluctant to invest large sums of capital to expand production capacity because such investments have long break-even timelines. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory estimates that about 55% of in-service distribution transformer units are older than 33 years and approaching their end of life.
So far, the Trump administration has imposed 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum, as well as a 10% across-the-board tariff on China. But more could come: The one-month pause on Trump’s proposed 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico is set to expire in early March. Meanwhile, Trump has ordered federal agencies to explore reciprocal tariffs on trading partners around the world. He has also floated tariffs on copper.
Transformers could become a chokepoint. Only about 20% of transformer demand can be met by the domestic supply chain, according to Wood Mackenzie, which also estimated that transformer prices have already risen 70% to 100% since January 2020 because of inflation for raw materials such as electrical steel and copper.
Mexico, Canada and China are important sources of electrical equipment to the U.S. In 2024, China accounted for over 32% of U.S. low-voltage transformer equipment imports and Mexico accounted for 36% of high-voltage transformer imports. Canada accounted for about 16% of U.S. imports of high-voltage switchgear and 100% of imported utility poles. Utilities typically go through a lengthy process to test the reliability of transformers they are purchasing and tend to require custom specifications, so it isn’t an easy process to switch to a new supplier.
Tariffs will pile new cost pressures on an already-tight grid. The New Jersey Board of Public Utilities said its residential customers’ average monthly bill is expected to increase by 17% to 20% for the 12-month period starting June 2025, partly due to data center-driven demand growth. Nationwide, electricity prices have increased at a compound annual growth rate of 5.7% over the last five years, a considerable acceleration since the preceding five years when prices were roughly flat, according to data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Also worth watching: If the 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum do result in a reshoring of those energy-intensive industries, that itself would add to long-term power demand.

Comment: How likely is it that the current administration has the slightest idea of what transformers are or how crucial they are to the United States economy and manufacturing capability?

@Observant1: Thanks for bringing this to the attention of the forum.

Morningstar Prospects—a list of up-and-coming or under-the-radar investment strategies that Morningstar Manager Research monitors to potentially bring under full
coverage

Which accounts for the inclusion of Fidelity Fund FFIDX, started in 1930.
Some others (semi-random selection):
VEGBX Vanguard Emerging Markets Bond
BFRIX BlackRock Floating Rate Income
PRCFX TRP Capital Appreciation and Income
ARHBX Artisan International Explorer
JEEIX JHancock Infrastructure
Apparently this is a regularly published list (annually?).

TCAL holding here: https://www.troweprice.com/financial-intermediary/us/en/investments/etfs/capital-appreciation-premium-income-etf.html#primary-holdings
Reads like it will be competing with DIVO. Something to watch.

Thanks @gman57. I owe you one! All of us occassionally mix political and financial content together - self included. It’s a challenge not to. Let’s try the best we can to keep those separate to the degree possible.
Why?
- Both sides of the political spectrum invest and know a lot about investing. It is not in our best interest to discourage input from either side. The more contributions and perspectives on investing, the better for all of us.
- MFO is funded by donations. Why discourage members of “the other side” from contributing? We all lose in that case,
- The Off Topic board has long been utilized for moaning, groaning and political venting. And I can’t ever recall any MFO participant complaining about that. I for one feel fortunate that Off-Topic exists as a place to share things like books, films, travel, songs and - yes, the often unseemly going-ons in our nation’s capital.
Thanks again.
@gmam57 Re: Shorting TSLA - Yes that would be an appropriate investing topic. In fact, @rono has started such a thread.
Shorting is fraught with risk. Losses can be infinite if the stock keeps rising. Even if you know you are right, at some point the costs of “covering” your shorts could drive you out of the market. I like to play the long-short game through funds. Even the experts find it a challenge (lackluster returns). But you won’t lose your house playing with them. In the L/S realm I own CPLSX and CPZ. Together they comprise near 20% of my portfolio. Both of those funds run by Calamos have indeed been shorting TSLA. Another one I used to own is NLSAX. Also a decent fund. Why Shorting Stocks is Risky
@gman57 - Here is the portion of your previous post (later deleted by you) which I objected to: ”Yes, I'm going to a takedown Tesla event 3/29. Sooner or later we each are going to have to stand up. I'm going to do it before it gets so bad it's no longer effective. Are you going to wait until we attack Greenland?”

It looks like one can trade etf MMFs at T Rowe Price, even though you can't do this at Fidelity or Schwab.
https://mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/63581/fidelity-schwab-block-orders-of-blackrock-and-texas-capital-etfs
I agree that Fidelity is top-notch. Though nobody is perfect.

Fido is not as benign as it seems. They are forcing all Advisor Clients to stop using their MMF for sweep vehicles and use FCASH instead. FCASH pays at least 1% less than their MMFs.
I have not checked to see if it is FDIC insured but I don't think so
"Taxable Interest Bearing Cash Option (FCASH), a free credit balance and is payable to you on demand by Fidelity. Fidelity may use this free credit balance in connection with its business, subject to applicable law. Fidelity may pay you interest on this free credit balance, and this interest will be based on a schedule set by Fidelity, which may change from time to time. As of December 23, 2024, the interest rate for this option is 2.19%."
The advisor we are talking to says they are forced to trade into Government MMF nightly just to get a better rate.
It is interesting that Fido thinks it can stiff Advisors who have Billions under management like this.
There are a number of short term Treasury Bill ETFs like BIL very similar to Texas Capital product. I wonder if they will go after them too?
This seems designed to po BlackRock

Per BBG:
Fidelity Investments and Charles Schwab Corp. are prohibiting clients from investing in money-market ETFs on their trading platforms, an unusual move for the financial powerhouses who typically permit easy access to funds that already trade on an exchange.
The two firms are blocking purchases of three exchange-traded funds offered by BlackRock Inc. and Texas Capital, the first to track money—market securities such as Treasury bills and other government-backed debt in an ETF structure.
The new funds serve as a direct challenge to mutual-fund providers, who have long been big, established players in money-market products. Fidelity and Schwab alone manage trillions of dollars in money-market assets, and this month, Schwab filed plans to launch its own government money-market ETF.
A Schwab spokesperson said its decision is consistent with the firm’s “long-standing approach” of only making available Schwab affiliate money-market mutual funds, while a Fidelity spokesperson said this is an extension of the company’s policy to “generally restrict” third-party money-market mutual funds.
Yet, the move stands out because trading platforms like Schwab and Fidelity typically don’t restrict exchange-traded funds, even if those funds are in competition with existing in-house offerings.
In Schwab's case, they need to drive folks into their MMFs because even there they profit from customers' stored cash with those more expensive MMFs. Fido's rationale, I can't tell -- I thought they had more customer-friendly cash management policies/offerings.
I'll stick with SGOV or equivalents at Schwab.

I was recently notified by USPS Informed Delivery that a letter from TRP will be delivered. ... I did not receive the said letter... Two days later my neighbor brought over the TRP letter.
...
I would trust USPS over TRP for service reliability.

Let me see if I've got this right. USPS failed to deliver a letter to you. If not for the good graces of a neighbor, you never would have known what happened to the letter, let alone recovered it. And you are willing to place any measure of trust in the USPS?
I've watched the USPS lose certified letters that I've sent; leave bags of mail destined for various addresses in the middle of our lobby for hours (as though we were some sort of substation); lose packages that it claimed it delivered to me.
Whatever happened to the 31st JANUARY deadline???

Until this year [2009], the deadline for sending Form 1099-B, Proceeds From Broker and Barter Exchange Transactions, was Jan. 31, the same as for Form W-2 and other information reporting forms. Congress extended the deadline to Feb. 15 in the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008, which also will require brokers to report the cost basis of securities sold, effective in phases starting in 2011.

https://www.journalofaccountancy.com/news/2009/feb/late1099bmailings/
More generally, IRS deadlines (unless the financial institution requests an extension) are here:
https://www.irs.gov/instructions/i1099gi#en_US_2025_publink1000287056
Until an institution has the information for an entire account, it will hold off on sending what would be an incomplete combined 1099. For various reasons, some funds are unable to provide complete information quickly and routinely request extensions. For example, in the past PRSVX has distributed some unrecaptured 1250 gains (box 2b). I suspect that it is because of the possibility of these distributions that TRP delays this fund's tax mailings.
Here's TRP's complete mailing schedule (for investments held directly in mutual fund accounts)
https://www.troweprice.com/personal-investing/resources/planning/tax/preparation/tax-mailing-schedule.html
This year, Fidelity delayed sending me a combined 1099 because it was waiting on information from a money market fund, more specifically a Fidelity MMF!

I took a quick peek at BIEAX.
There have been three years since 2015 where the fund's corresponding category and index had losses.
BIEAX outperformed both on all three occasions.
However, the fund did suffer a 2.05% loss in 2020 while the calendar/index gained less than 1%.
Three of the portfolio managers have over 15 years tenure on the strategy (BIEAX inception date: 01/31/2011).
The fund generated top decile returns for the trailing 3 year, 5 year, and 10 year periods according to M*.
https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/bieax/performance
Edit/Add: I almost forgot that Brandes International Equity was featured in a recent Barron's article.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/top-stocks/international-stocks-are-beating-the-u-s-how-one-fund-is-playing-it/ar-AA1Bdcw6

@sma3 and @Observant1: I'm not leaving CBLDX or NRDCX because I think CB is looking out for my capital. Still holding OSTIX, also.
For LC international value, Brandes is my choice. BIEAX or its clone BINV are as highly rated as BISAX, do not suffer from asset bloat, and have the same long-term team successfully running them. Seems like a quality shop, maybe flying under the radar.

@Dt. I am with you 100%. I am way more interested in return of my capital than return on capital. I watch the market with a sense of detachment I haven’t had since the sixties,,, when I cheered for the markets to crash. I too worry about the FDIC. My biggest concern is social security. If it were up to Dodick it would already be shut down. But the intent is pretty clear.

Artisan is usually conscientious regarding mutual fund capacity management.
ARTKX closed to most new investors in 2007, reopened in 2009, and then closed again in 2011.
The fund briefly reopened in March 2020 but was subsequently soft-closed in June 2021.
M* places ARTKX in the Foreign Large Blend category.
The fund has generated top decile returns for the trailing 3 year, 5 year, 10 year, and 15 year periods.
https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/artkx/performance
Edit/Add¹:
"The strategy's asset base of USD 46.6 billion as of September 2024 was sizable,
but its long-term orientation, large-cap emphasis, and quality focus help alleviate concerns.
In recent years, the team has suppressed some holdings information to protect liquidity
when it's entering and exiting positions.
And finally, the fact that this group no longer supports the USD 29.4 billion Artisan Global Value
strategy gives the team more leeway than it had before the 2018 team split."
¹ M* take on ARTKX asset base size

Sold CLF for short-term loss of 21% ... offset by realized gains elsewhere, thankfully.
Total mistake on my part. 'nuff said.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1593547/000139834425005782/fp0092737-2_497.htm
497 1 fp0092737-2_497.htm
THE ADVISORS’ INNER CIRCLE FUND III
(the “Trust”)
FS Chiron Capital Allocation Fund
(the “Fund”)
Supplement dated March 20, 2025 to the Fund’s Summary Prospectus (the “Summary
Prospectus”), Prospectus (the “Prospectus”) and Statement of Additional Information (“SAI”),
each dated March 1, 2025
This supplement provides new and additional information beyond that contained in the Summary Prospectus, Prospectus and SAI, and should be read in conjunction with the Summary Prospectus, Prospectus and SAI.
The Board of Trustees of the Trust, at the recommendation of FS Investments, the parent company of Chiron Investment Management, LLC (the “Adviser”), the investment adviser of the Fund, has approved a plan of liquidation providing for the liquidation of the Fund’s assets and the distribution of the net proceeds pro rata to the Fund’s shareholders. In connection therewith, the Fund is closed to investments from new and existing shareholders effective immediately. The Fund is expected to cease operations and liquidate on or about April 21, 2025 (the “Liquidation Date”). The Liquidation Date may be changed without notice at the discretion of the Trust’s officers.
Prior to the Liquidation Date, shareholders may redeem (sell) their shares in the manner described in the “Purchasing, Selling and Exchanging Fund Shares – How to Sell Your Fund Shares” section of the Prospectus. For those Fund shareholders that do not redeem (sell) their shares prior to the Liquidation Date, the Fund will distribute to each such shareholder, on or promptly after the Liquidation Date, a liquidating cash distribution equal in value to the shareholder’s interest in the net assets of the Fund as of the Liquidation Date.
In anticipation of the liquidation of the Fund, the Adviser may manage the Fund in a manner intended to facilitate the Fund’s orderly liquidation, such as by holding cash or making investments in other highly liquid assets. As a result, during this time, all or a portion of the Fund may not be invested in a manner consistent with its stated investment strategies, which may prevent the Fund from achieving its investment objective.
The liquidation distribution amount will include any accrued income and capital gains, will be treated as a payment in exchange for shares and will generally be a taxable event for shareholders investing through taxable accounts. You should consult your personal tax advisor concerning your particular tax situation. Shareholders remaining in the Fund on the Liquidation Date will not be charged any transaction fees by the Fund. However, the net asset value of the Fund on the Liquidation Date will reflect costs of liquidating the Fund. Shareholders will receive liquidation proceeds as soon as practicable after the Liquidation Date.
PLEASE RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT FOR FUTURE REFERENCE.

From The Barron's Daily
:
The Fed’s Outlook Should Have Spooked Markets. Why It Did the Opposite and 5 Other Things to Know Today.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell showed his strength as a market whisperer on Wednesday. Even though interest rates stayed the same, stocks rose by the most on a Fed decision day since last July.
Most important, perhaps, was that Powell managed to avoid the ire of President Donald Trump. Sure, Trump posted that the Fed should be cutting after the decision. But it was a relatively mild rebuke that doesn’t suggest the central bank and the administration are on a collision course.
The market’s embrace of Powell’s message is a bit of a puzzle. The projections still show just two quarter-point rate cuts this year, the same as in December. In fact, a closer examination shows the bias among rate setters has shifted toward fewer cuts—even though the median outlook is the same, fewer people see more than two cuts. What’s more, Powell was particularly eager to emphasize the uncertainty in the outlook.
It gets worse. The Fed also raised its inflation forecasts and lowered projections for growth. That’s starting to sound a bit like stagflation, or inflation without economic growth, which isn’t good for stocks.
But the market seemed to take this in its stride because Powell instilled confidence in other ways. First, the Fed eased plans to sell bonds back into the market, which is a subtle form of lowering borrowing costs. He also said that if tariffs were to cause an uptick in inflation, the Fed would be able to look through it as long as it’s “transitory.”
That might be an unfortunate word choice. It was used to describe what was happening after the Covid-19 pandemic, which of course didn’t seem like short-lived inflation at all. But it’s true that the Fed could actually make things worse if it responds to temporary price gains that will blow over by themselves.
Investors are right to be encouraged by Powell’s words. There is a lot to worry about these days—tariffs, wars, and rapid changes to government policies. At least Powell brings calm and flexibility in times of heightened market pain.

@a2z, excellent post. Perfectly summarizes the MAGA lens.
https://apnews.com/article/trumps-comments-about-stock-market-dba336a82ffaf000b80e7218d749995a
A look at some of Trump’s observations on the stock market over the last year:
Jan. 29, 2024, on Truth Social
“THIS IS THE TRUMP STOCK MARKET BECAUSE MY POLLS AGAINST BIDEN ARE SO GOOD THAT INVESTORS ARE PROJECTING THAT I WILL WIN, AND THAT WILL DRIVE THE MARKET UP — EVERYTHING ELSE IS TERRIBLE (WATCH THE MIDDLE EAST!), AND RECORD SETTING INFLATION HAS ALREADY TAKEN ITS TOLL. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN”

March 12, 2024, on Truth Social
“High Interest Rates and Inflation are choking our great middle class, and ALL, our Economy is bad, and our Stock Market is rising only because Polls are strongly indicating that we will WIN the Presidential Election of 2024.”
April 25, 2024, on his way into court for his criminal trial in New York
“The stock market is, in a sense, crashing. The numbers are very bad. This is Bidenomics. It’s catching up with him. It’s lucky that it’s catching up before he leaves office as opposed to after he leaves office.”
May 15, 2024, on Truth Social
“Thank you to Scott Bessent, one of the Great Prognosticators on Wall Street! There are many people that are saying that the only reason the Stock Market is high is because I am leading in all of the Polls, and if I don’t win, we will have a CRASH of similar proportions to 1929. I agree, but let’s hope we don’t have to worry about that!”
May 18, 2024, at an NRA event in Dallas, Texas:
“We are a nation whose stock market’s continued success is contingent on MAGA winning the next election.”
July 16, 2024, on Truth Social
“Dow Jones UP 742 based on the fact that the Market expects a TRUMP WIN in November! Nice compliment — Thank you!”
Aug 4, 2024 on Truth Social
“STOCK MARKETS CRASHING. I TOLD YOU SO!!! KAMALA DOESN’T HAVE A CLUE. BIDEN IS SOUND ASLEEP. ALL CAUSED BY INEPT U.S. LEADERSHIP!”
Aug. 14, 2024, at a rally in Asheville, North Carolina
“If Harris wins this election, the result will be a Kamala economic crash, a 1929-style depression. 1929. When I win the election, we will immediately begin a brand new Trump economic boom. It’ll be a boom. We’re going to turn this country around so fast. Many people say that they only reason the stock market is up is because people think I am going to win.”
Oct. 29, 2024, during a rally in Allentown, Pennsylvania
“You want to see a market crash? If we lost this election, I think the market would go down the tubes.”
Nov. 4, 2024, at a rally in Grand Rapids, Michigan
Trump started praising Bessent and said: “You know what his theory is? The stock market is the only sign of life, and it’s only going up because everyone thinks Trump is going to win the election. And others, too. Others, too. I’m seeing it a lot. I think they’re following your lead. But I appreciate that confidence.”
Nov. 14, 2024, at a Mar-a-Lago gala in Florida:
“We had three or four of the highest -- I guess, almost every single day, we set new records in the stock market. We set new records economically.”
Trump, in comments directed at House Speaker Mike Johnson, then said: “Mr. Speaker, I think it’s important, maybe you should pass a bill, you have to start my term from Nov. 5, OK, or Nov. 6, if you want. Nov. 5 because the market has gone through the roof. Enthusiasm has doubled.”
Dec. 12, 2024, in an interview with CNBC at the New York Stock Exchange:
Trump was asked by host Jim Cramer whether it’s still the case that stock market indexes were a good barometer of his performance.
“Well, I think I’ve always said, you know, to me, stock market is very — all of it, you know, all of it together, it’s very important. It’s an honor to be here in New York Stock Exchange. I sort of joked that I actually bought the building across the street because the stock exchange was here. It’s a big deal.”
Dec. 16, 2024, during a news conference at Mar-a-Lago
Trump was asked whether he is concerned that his tariffs might hurt the stock market.
“Make our country rich. Tariffs will make our country rich,” Trump responded.
Jan. 7, 2025, during a news conference at Mar-a-Lago

“Since my election, the stock market has set records. The S&P 500 index has broken above 6,000 points for the first time ever, never even close.”
Jan. 19, 2025, at a rally in Washington, D.C.
“Everyone is calling it the — I don’t want to say this. It’s too braggadocious, but we’ll say it anyway — the Trump effect. It’s you. You’re the effect. Since the election, the stock market has surged, and small business optimism has soared, a record 41 points to a 39-year high.”
Feb. 19, 2025, at an investment conference in Miami Beach
“I think the stock market is going to be great. In other words, we will rapidly grow our economy by dramatically shrinking the federal government.”
Feb. 21, 2025, speaking to the nation’s governors at the White House
“When we turned over the reins, the stock market was higher than just previous to COVID coming in, which was an amazing achievement.”
House Speaker Mike Johnson of La., right, and Vice President JD Vance, left, listen as President Donald Trump addresses a joint session of Congress at the Capitol in Washington, March 4, 2025. (AP Photo/Ben Curtis)
House Speaker Mike Johnson of La., right, and Vice President JD Vance, left, listen as President Donald Trump addresses a joint session of Congress at the Capitol in Washington, March 4, 2025. (AP Photo/Ben Curtis)
March 4, 2025, in a joint address to Congress
Having sparked a North American trade war and with the S&P 500 losing all of its post-election gains, Trump said in his speech to Congress: “Tariffs are about making America rich again and making America great again, and it’s happening and it will happen rather quickly. There’ll be a little disturbance, but we’re OK with that. It won’t be much.”
March 9, 2025, in a taped interview on Fox News Channel’s “Sunday Morning Futures”
After a week of wild swings on Wall Street over uncertainty about his tariffs, Trump was asked whether he was expecting a recession in 2025. He said: “I hate to predict things like that. There is a period of transition because what we’re doing is very big. We’re bringing wealth back to America. That’s a big thing.” He added, “It takes a little time. It takes a little time. But I think it should be great for us.”
Elsewhere in the interview, when Trump was asked about the market going down: “You can’t really watch the stock market. ... You can’t go by that. You have to do what’s right.”
March 9, 2025, to reporters on Air Force One
When asked about his hesitation during the “Sunday Morning Futures” interview before answering the recession question, Trump said: “I tell you what, of course you hesitate. Who knows? All I know is this: We’re going to take in hundreds of billions of dollars in tariffs, and we’re going to become so rich you’re not going to know where to spend all that money. I’m telling you, you just watch.”
President Donald Trump arrives to speak at the Business Roundtable quarterly meeting in Washington, Tuesday, March 11, 2025, as Business Roundtable Chair and Cisco Chairman and CEO Chuck Robbins watches. (Pool via AP)
President Donald Trump arrives to speak at the Business Roundtable quarterly meeting in Washington, March 11, 2025, as Business Roundtable Chair and Cisco Chairman and CEO Chuck Robbins watches. (Pool via AP)
March 11, 2025, to reporters at the White House
Trump was asked about the market after a selloff Monday and more trembling on the markets Tuesday. “Markets are going to go up and they’re going to go down. We have to rebuild our country,” he said.
In response to a question about whether his tariffs caused the turmoil in the markets, Trump said: “Biden gave us a horrible economy. He gave us horrible inflation. And I think the market was going to go very, very bad. If anything, I have a lot of very smart people, friends of mine, and great businessmen. They’re not investing because of what I’ve done.”
On whether he thinks there will be a recession: “I don’t see it at all. I think this country’s going to boom. But as I said, I can do it the easy way or the hard way. The hard way to do it is exactly what I’m doing, but the results are going to be 20 times greater. Remember, Trump is always right.”
March 12, 2025, to reporters at the White House
While giving a long answer to a question about his trade policies, Trump said, “I think a lot of the stock market going down was because of the really bad four years that we had, when you look at inflation and all of the other problems, I mean wars and inflation and so many others problems.”
Later in his remarks, Trump said he is bringing back the country financially and said: “Financially, we’ll be stronger than ever before. I think the markets are gonna soar when they see what’s happening.”.

Not sure why Balu would say something very damaging like PIMIX returned capital. If that event actually occurred please provide details. Date and amount. Thank you.