“We expect equity investors to perform well relative to bond investors over the next decade. We also believe that our portfolios are more attractively priced than the S&P 500.”
Hard to disagree as worded. “our portfolios” doesn’t mean the same as what you, I, or somebody else may own. And they seem to disavow the S&P. Unfortunately, we’ll have to wait 10 years to see if the manager’s perceptions re his portfolio are accurate.
Note that the blurb does not differentiate among bonds, lumping all into one hopper. Well, now, there are short, intermediate and long term bonds. Corporate and sovereign. Investment grade and poorer quality. U.S. domiciled and those from other nations. And, there’s EM as well.
I think for many of us the past week is a great opportunity to compare how different asset class we held faired compared to one another. It hasn’t been too often that so many different assets suffered together (Maybe Qtr 1, 2020?).
When all is said and done, I’m glad I had exposure to bonds last week. RPGAX (30% bonds) fell 1.48% as compared to PRWCX which lost over 2.0%%. My worst performing bond fund, DODIX, fell 1.07%. In contrast, my worst performing equity holding, WPM, fell over 10%. Equity funds themselves were all over the place of course. Those heavy into banks saw gains. Similar variance existed among various alts, long shorts, etc. PRPFX surprised, losing just 1% for the week, despite exposure to gold, bonds and growth stocks.
So, if you have a 10 year or longer time horizon and can live with higher volatility, send your $$ to the folks at Oakmark. BTW - I read a lot of Dodge & Cox’s commentary. They might well have written the same blurb.

What happened was that investors sold retail fund holdings and purchased institutional fund holdings. Such a move would have been a taxable event had it been done in taxable accounts, but employer plans (e.g. 401(k)s, 403(b)s) are tax sheltered.
If someone had between $5M and $100M in a taxable retail TDF, it is unlikely that one would have sold shares (recognizing personal cap gains earlier in 2021, before distributions). The cost of the taxes on the realized gain would likely have outweighed the benefit of switching to a lower ER fund.
(I personally faced a similar decision years ago. I owned service class shares of a fund. The A shares, with a slightly lower ER, were subsequently offered load-waived. The fund declined to do a tax-free exchange for me. So I continued to hold the higher cost service class shares.)
Investors weren't selling off shares because they wanted out. They were just moving to a lower ER replacement fund. So whether retail or institutional series had higher unrealized gains seems somewhat moot. That said, I agree that the younger institutional series was likely to have had lower unrealized gains.
Since Vanguard decided to merge the series entirely, there wouldn't seem to be much point in merging the employer plan investors and then months later merging the rest of the investors. Had Vanguard given this enough thought to realize that the first change (lowering the institutional min) would trigger the mass migration, it could have skipped that step completely and merged everyone at once.

I have had sig Commodities esp energy since last year's oil crash. A lot of the ETFs are too heavy in Oil to be a diversifier, so I added DBA for agriculture and GMET for "green metals" REMX for "strategic metals"
For broad based funds, I still think SPACX is a decent fund, although it paid a huge income distribution this year, presumably due to profits on futures. It is less volatile than those mentioned above with lower draw downs in 2020 ( 28 % vs over 50%)
There are lots of alternatives but look carefully at how the mange risk

MyMoneyBlog, citing Bogleheads, has a good explanation of what happened.
https://www.mymoneyblog.com/vanguard-target-retirement-funds-nav-drop-cap-gains-distribution.html
In brief, in early 2021 Vanguard enabled lots of employer plans move money from the retail TDFs to the institutional TDF, by lowering the mins from $100M to $5M. Companies responded. There was a mass movement of dollars out of the retail TDFs, creating large cap gains for those remaining.
As pointed out in the blog, had Vanguard merged the funds first, then none of these plans would have moved money around and there would have been no large gains distributed.
So the gains were not because of the merger, but in spite of the merger.

Howdy folks,
I'm probably the oldest 'gold bug' around but no longer give it the same inflationary hedge status today as I have in the past. Bitcoin hasn't dethroned it but has reduced demand sufficiently on the margin to influence my decisions. Don't get me wrong, I'm playing the junior silver miners as I type.
Recall the Elder Baron Rothschild's advice that to protect your wealth, you wanted 1/3 in securities, 1/3 in real estate and 1/3 in rare art. It's this last category that can be tricky. It includes gold and bitcoin, and many other assets. It doesn't include cabbage patch kids, nor Beanie babies.
Good luck and wear the damn mask
Rono

Throw in sports cards to the "rare art" mix Rono. Since 2020, the hobby has gone through the roof. There's youtube videos of people charting card sales and gains like stock charts.

This is trial post here.
Pg L4: COVER STORY, “The Commodities Boom/Why It’s Time to Invest in COMMODITIES, and How to Do It”. Factors driving commodities include inflation, China and energy transitions. Bloomberg commodity index rose +27% in 2021 and more gains are ahead, especially for oil and ag-commodities. INFLATION is driven by pent-up demand and constrained supplies due to supply-chain disruptions. Greenflation is also contributing as the ESG movement has costs. CHINA is a huge consumer of commodities, and it is slowing. Its property sector is in trouble. Yet, commodities need China. ENERGY TRANSITIONS and ESG are driving the demand for several commodities. Rising energy and other prices feed into higher AG-COMMODITY prices. Plant substitutes for meats are boosting demand for several ag-commodities. WEATHER has been difficult in many areas. Most commodities are in BACKWARDATION (i.e., the prices of near-futures are higher than those for far-futures); futures-based commodity funds benefit from backwardation during their periodic future rolls. It is hard to find active commodity funds but an article in FundQ mentions 3.
Pg L7: COMMODITY indexes vary widely. The S&P GSCI commodity index has 60% in energy; the Bloomberg commodity index has 33% in energy, 33% in metals. Yet neither has lithium, copper, tin, metals essential for electrification. So, use active commodity funds such as PCRAX, CCSAX, BCSAX; indexed/passive funds are more common. Beware that commodity funds are volatile.
Pg L8: Be aware of several changes coming for 401k: More ESG options including the default options; guaranteed-income option (immediate or deferred/QLAC) at retirement included within the target-date funds (TDFs); pooled employer plan (PEP) 401k for small businesses. On the other hand, the Backdoor Roth IRA loophole will be closed. (This long piece is by @LewisBraham)
Pg L10: Amy DOMINI of Domini Impact Investments (AUM $3 billion in 5 funds) was an early ESG pioneer (Domini 400 Social Index/MSCI KLD 400 Social Index, KLD Research & Analytics that was bought by MSCI, books, etc). PERFORMANCE of ESG funds doesn’t lag general funds; in fact, they have better risk-adjusted performance. There is now appreciation that ESG is everybody’s business. There is work still to be done on ESG STANDARDIZATION and Europe is ahead on this. The SEC needs to get into this; the DOL is cleaning up the mess that it has created. Her funds use a combination of exclusions and inclusions based on ESG criteria (featured fund is DSEPX). They also use industry specific ESG standards. She notes that although Larry FINK of BlackRock/BLK makes lots of noises on ESG, BLK has a record of mostly voting with managements (Larry Fink/BLK declined comment). Her recent book, People, Planet, & Profit, November 2021.
Pg L36: In 2021/Q4 (SP500 +10.90%): Among general equity funds, the best was LC-core +9.80% and the worst was SC-growth +1.84%; NO category beat SP500. Among other equity funds, the best was real estate +14.42% and the worst was Japan -4.25%. Among fixed-income funds, LT -0.01%, world income -1.19% (not very refined in Lipper mutual fund categories listed in Barron’s).
LINK

I'm a Cathie Wood fan. You need out of the box conviction if you really want to outperform. I remember watching her on CNBC a few years ago where she explained her TESLA thesis while many others were talking about eventual liquidation or acquisition. No investment style can work all the time, because if it did it would be duplicated or arbitraged and end up not working at all. If you want a 100% plus up year you need to accept 30% down some time. I am slowly picking up shares in ARKK and ARKG.

Just curious, when did you start buying ARKK and ARKG? Is it for a trade or a long term portfolio holding?
I did buy a little bit of ARKK yesterday. I am not putting any money into ARKK that I can not afford to lose. This is not Cathy's first rodeo but I do not see any trophies from past rodeos.

Long term, first buys June 2020. Even in ARKK. Down 8% in ARKG. buying only the big dips. I think this will work out over time, or at least do better than the broad market.

I don't normally view Yahoo, but stumbled across a linked message today.
Will be interesting to discover the magic of this management, eh???
ARTICLE

I just added CDC as a low volatility more defensive fund option. Lynn Bolin had a really nice writeup on the fund a few months back. Steady eddy fund that held up quite well in March 2020. max DD of 15%. Nice dividend too. I am also going to sell my technology fund BGSAX and trim back on holdings in MIOPX. Both have high PE multiples and Aren't well positioned for a rising rate environment. Evaluating a few other funds for purchase.

Jerome Dodson was the PARWX manager from inception (04/29/2005) until he retired on 12/31/2020.
Billy Hwan became a comanager on 05/01/2018 and the sole manager at the start of 2021.
Mr. Dodson took a contrarian approach which resulted in an elevated risk profile.
Mr. Hwan takes a relative value approach and wants to bring the fund's beta (vs. S&P 500) down.
Taking this into consideration, past PARWX performance may not be very indicative of future performance.

Thanks for reading @sma3. I don’t make any claim to making a better return. I strive to make a better risk adjusted return and am more focused on making a decent return with capital preservation.
Following trends and studying business and investing is a good idea. Those that put more effort into it or are better at will generally do better. There are always exceptions in both directions. Too much of most things usually ends poorly.

+1 stay calm UDF website bullet-point dated 10/25/21 mentions the allegation that James Dondero siphoned millions from his former company Highland Capital Management. Certainly increases my confidence in HMEZX! Snarky comment well-deserved !

Another fund with a nifty record, as all of its 17 (calendar) years show gains......AVEFX (Ave Maria Bond Fund). It holds a 20% allocation to equities, despite the name.
You know darn well what happens in 2022 if I buy it.

OAKBX -22.03 loss in 1Q 2020 eliminates my interest in the fund-perhaps harsh on my part,but still!

VSCGX had a very difficult 2008-09 period compared to similars but did better in the 2020 1Q. Sticking to VG limits your Allocation category choices greatly although VG offers great balanced funds compared to peers IMO.

Interesting interview from Nov. https://www.morningstar.com/articles/1063412/these-renowned-stock-pickers-are-taking-change-in-stride
One gets a clear sense of the differences between these two fund managers but some similarities too… and even with dare I say Cathie Wood?
Favorite quotes:
TESLA
“Lynch: I think it’s a tough business. Selling cars that are expensive for the average customer, that require financing, is a little different than selling Internet ads. We did own Tesla for about three years. It was a small, more of a speculative-size position back when the first consumer reports came out around the product, and the company was starting to have a real revenue stream in front of it. But the constant need for capital from the capital markets does put you in a position, potentially, during times of uncertainty of relying on the kindness of strangers to continue the business model. Cathie Wood would say it’s not just about selling cars. There might be more to it than that—energy storage, energy services, and things of that nature. Still, ultimately, it’s a car company, and there are a lot of other big car companies that scale. They do a lot of things differently that are interesting, but ultimately the capital intensity and the constant need for external financing for us became problematic.”
ZOOM
“ Nygren: When we weren’t able to be in the office, we were using Zoom as much as anybody else was, and as a consumer, I loved the product. The concern that we had was that Zoom was being priced as if it were going to be the dominant market leader for a long time. But one conference call would be on Zoom, and then the next one on Google Meet, and then Microsoft (MSFT) Teams and BlueJeans, and they all look just about alike as a user.” <— He’s absolutely right on this point.
BUBBLE? Stocks vs Bonds
Nygren: “ I’m not going to sit here and argue that it’s a generational opportunity to buy equities or anything like that. But given where interest rates are, owning an equity like the S&P that pays almost a 2% dividend yield and has earnings that are growing at 6% or 7% a year, compared to a long-term bond, is an easy choice to make.
Lynch: “ But all things equal, I would rather own smaller companies with smaller market caps that we think could be much bigger over time than some of the larger companies that exist today.”
BITCOIN
Lynch: “ We talked about persistence earlier. Bitcoin’s kind of like Kenny from South Park. It dies every episode, and then it’s back again. As for adoption, it’s almost like bitcoin’s a virus and we’re all a little bit infected. Some people fully have gone there, and some people haven’t, but we all know about it. That’s interesting to me from a viral mechanism.”
BANKING
“Reichart: Bill, you own a lot of financials. How worried are you about disruption in the financial sector?
Nygren: Most of the financial names we own are selling relatively close to stated book value. In a world where they get disrupted and their business goes down every year, they could liquidate for relatively close to the current stock. Brian Moynihan [CEO of Bank of America BAC ] said that the pandemic has pulled forward mobile banking by a decade. If you go into a bank to a teller, it costs them $4 to process your check. If you do it at an ATM, it’s 40 cents. And if you do it on your phone, it’s 4 cents. The big banks are a disruptor there because they are so far ahead in mobilization for their clients. I don’t see a big downside for most of the companies that we own.”

Keep in mind that David Rosenberg is among generally bearish strategists and he has been so for a long while. He was formerly with ML/BoA and Gluskin Sheff. He started his own consulting in 2020.

@stillers, @sma3,
Couple questions for you...
@stillers...I need to read your post carefully as it resonates with me...question if you are ok answering...by chance did you move to a lower tax state when you retired? I'm in a very high tax state but also own a home in a much lower tax state...wife and I are thinking of making the move in the next year or so. Question for all: Has anyone else moved to lower taxes in retirement? Did it work as planned? Happy with decision?
@sma3...agreed floating rate funds scare me...usually not highest rated bonds....took a real flush in the down draft in 2020.
I too am concerned about the rattling, swift elevator down in the markets...who knows...
Another fund I am dabbling with (and have owned in the past before it stalled out) is PMEFX, Penn Mutual 1847 Income fund. Really like the mgr who used to run Berwyn Income...seems like a fund you might be able to hang onto in "rough waters". I like the fund mgr's poise and thought process in the interviews I've seen him on.
Best,
Baseball Fan

FRIFX is a good real estate hybrid - RE stocks & bonds. It did have a terrible 2020 when both real estate stocks and bonds were badly hit. It is less volatile than all-equity VNQ, FRESX, etc.

@Newgirl, to clarify my earlier statement, we moved more equity to defensive sectors such as health care and utility. Traditionally, these sectors plus consumer staples are considered defensive while the other sectors are considered cycincal. This is a more of a tactical move to better position our portfolios in 2022. We have done well in 2020 when we bought REIT and energy when they were down over 30% due to the lockdown and they have since fully recovered plus another 30-40% in 2021, Now it is time to rotate to elsewhere.