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This time is really NO different, but perhaps worse just as you pointed out. Now we are facing several challenges: geopolitical (Ukraine, Taiwan, and to a lesser extent N.Korea), high inflation globally, and pandemic-induced supply chain issues. Feel like we are revisiting the spring old 2020.However, I do see human irrationality playing a big part in the markets of recent years. That includes not only equities, but assets like real estate, bonds, crypto. And further, that uniquely human ingredient compounds the difficulty of determining where true value exists and where’s there’s mostly fluff.
In my opinion the FAA is now and always has been notoriously slow in staying on top of evolving safety issues. They have been criticized many times by the NTSB for inaction on known or potential safety problems. In this case apparently they at least went through the motions of trying to participate in resolving the 5G issues, but were rebuffed by the Trump administration.The F.A.A. also argues that it was excluded from decisions about 5G. In 2020, the F.A.A. administrator, Stephen Dixon, prepared a letter to ... the F.C.C., expressing concerns about 5G interference, but the letter was not passed along by ... the acting director of the Commerce Department’s National Telecommunications and Information Administration.
Larry Kudlow, who headed President Donald Trump’s National Economic Council, even bragged about blowing off the F.A.A., saying on his Fox Business show, “We ignored them because the science said don’t worry about it.” He added later, “We actually fought the F.A.A. and we won.”
It appears now that the Trump administration won the battle but not the war. One result of the extended conflict between the F.C.C. and the F.A.A. is that even now, nearly a year after the spectrum for 5G was auctioned off, the F.A.A. is still at the stage of information-gathering as it moves toward eventually issuing new requirements for radar altimeters. It is likely to take five years for all altimeters to be upgraded.
My last significant portfolio changes occurred in 2020 when high yield and utility stock sleeves were added to the portfolio (they now constitute about 40% of portfolio). The high yield sleeve purchases mostly focused on real estate, financial, and energy sector stocks that appeared to be on sale as well as on a few CEF purchases. Also, I used proceeds from the sale of ZEOIX to buy some utility stocks that appeared to be reasonably priced. That active trading year was followed by some 2021 portfolio cleanup trades as well as a little "special situations" trading (that produced mixed results). My basic goal for 2022 is to refocus on being a buy and hold investor. VIX above 35 for a while with a fair amount of panic and exhaustion would get me thinking about making some changes again. A possibility list for trades is being maintained but I would want to see what looks interesting at the time I become motivated. That type of market probably produces the Zweig momentum buy signal Junkster mentioned. But I don't know where to find that one.For those waiting on better valuations to buy Equities, at what point would you be a serious Buyer? Do you have a specific plan in place?
I wrote on Jan. 21:
As to a "black swan" or what could also be named as an excuse to take some profits by the big market players; IS IF.......and likely a much to do about nothing, is the monitoring of the corona virus in China and other countries in the area.
If this virus were to become very wide spread and deadly; well, who knows, eh?
Market reports (of course) are already headlining that this virus could trigger a markets sell-off.
I can not disagree that if a global problem with any virus became serious enough; markets would be affected.
Of concern to the CDC, WHO and other health organizations at this time, is the beginning of the lunar new year period; which always involves escalated travel volumes by millions of Chinese, both domestic and foreign travel.
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