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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • UBS U.S. Small Cap Growth Fund will be liquidated
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/886244/000110465925040257/tm2512919d2_497.htm
    The UBS Funds
    Prospectus Supplement | April 28, 2025
    Includes:
    • UBS U.S. Small Cap Growth Fund
    Dear Investor,
    The purpose of this supplement to the Prospectuses for UBS U.S. Small Cap Growth Fund (the "Fund"), a series of The UBS Funds (the "Trust"), dated October 28, 2024, previously supplemented, is to notify you that the Board of Trustees (the "Board") of the Trust has approved certain actions to liquidate and dissolve the Fund.
    UBS Asset Management (Americas) LLC ("UBS AM"), the investment advisor to the Fund, has announced that it will cease to offer the investment strategy pursued by the Fund (the U.S. Small Cap Growth strategy). Based upon information provided by UBS AM, the Board determined that it is in the best interests of the Fund and its shareholders to liquidate and dissolve the Fund pursuant to a Plan of Liquidation (the "Plan").
    The liquidation is expected to be completed on or about August 1, 2025 (the "Liquidation Date"). The liquidation may be delayed if unforeseen circumstances arise.
    Liquidation of the Fund
    The Plan provides that: (a) all the Fund's assets be converted into cash or cash equivalents or be otherwise liquidated and (b) the Fund distribute pro rata to its shareholders all of its existing assets, in a complete liquidation of the Fund. At any time prior to the Liquidation Date, shareholders may exchange their shares of the Fund for shares of the same class of any Family Funds ("Family Funds" include other UBS Funds, PACE Select funds and other funds for which UBS Asset Management (US) Inc. serves as principal underwriter), as described under "Managing your fund account—Exchanging Shares" in the Prospectuses. Shareholders may also redeem their shares of the Fund and receive the net asset value thereof, pursuant to the procedures set forth under "Managing your fund account—Selling shares" in the Prospectuses.
    On the Liquidation Date, all remaining shareholders will have their accounts liquidated and the proceeds will be delivered to them. The liquidation will be considered a taxable transaction, and shareholders may recognize a gain or loss for Federal income tax purposes. Shareholders may wish to consult their tax advisers regarding the effect of the Fund's liquidation in light of their individual circumstances.
    In preparation for the liquidation of the Fund, the Fund's assets may be invested in money market instruments or held in cash. In this regard, the Fund will no longer be investing with a goal of achieving its investment objective, but instead to position for liquidation. To the extent the Fund holds cash or cash equivalents rather than securities or other instruments in which it primarily has invested, the Fund risks losing opportunities to participate in market appreciation and may experience potentially lower returns than the Fund's benchmark or other funds that remain fully invested.
    ZS-1277
    Closure of Fund to new investments and exchanges
    Given the upcoming liquidation, the Board has approved the closure of the Fund to new investments, effective May 5, 2025, with the following two exceptions: (1) additional purchases by existing shareholders through certain retirement plans, for whom the closure date is July 1, 2025, and (2) purchases by existing shareholders through dividend reinvestment. This means that effective May 5, 2025, purchases by new investors, additional purchases by existing shareholders, and purchases through exchanges from other funds will cease, except as noted above. The Fund reserves the right to change this policy at any time. Of course, shareholders will continue to be able to exchange or redeem their shares in accordance with the policies in the Prospectuses, as noted above.
    Elimination of contingent deferred sales charges on redemptions
    Also in connection with the liquidation, effective May 5, 2025, all contingent deferred sales charges ("CDSC") assessed on redemptions that are charged on Class A shares (on purchases over $1 million) are eliminated. With respect to exchanges of shares of the Fund for shares of another Family Fund, the length of time you held your shares of the Fund will still be considered when determining whether you must pay a CDSC when you sell the shares of the Family Fund acquired in the exchange.
    Effective August 1, 2025, the Prospectuses, which also offer other series of the Trust, are revised to delete in their entirety all references to the Fund.
    PLEASE BE SURE TO RETAIN THIS IMPORTANT INFORMATION FOR FUTURE REFERENCE.
    2
    The UBS Funds
    Supplement to the Statement of Additional Information | April 28, 2025
    Includes:
    • UBS U.S. Small Cap Growth Fund
    Dear Investor,
    The purpose of this supplement to the Statement of Additional Information ("SAI") for UBS U.S. Small Cap Growth Fund (the "Fund"), a series of The UBS Funds (the "Trust"), dated October 28, 2024, previously supplemented, is to notify you that the Board of Trustees of the Trust has approved certain actions to liquidate and dissolve the Fund.
    The liquidation of the Fund is expected to be completed on or about August 1, 2025. In connection with the Fund's liquidation, effective August 1, 2025, the SAI is revised to delete in its entirety all references to the Fund.
    PLEASE BE SURE TO RETAIN THIS IMPORTANT INFORMATION FOR FUTURE REFERENCE.
    ZS-1278
  • Bill Bengen Anwsers Three Q's Regarding the 4% Rule
    David Blanchett researched how average spending evolves during retirement.
    He discovered that spending tends to decline in today's dollars
    for younger retirees especially those entering their 70s.
    At around age 90 to 95 spending can increase sharply
    often because of significant health care costs¹.
    Blanchett calls this the "retirement spending smile."
    https://retirementresearcher.com/retirement-spending-smile/
    ¹ Many retiree's spending keeps decreasing in today's dollars for their entire lives.
  • Bill Bengen Anwsers Three Q's Regarding the 4% Rule
    @yogibearbull,
    You might enjoy this book (The Prosperous Retirement):
    Reviewed here (in greater detail):
    https://retirementresearcher.com/retirement-spending-increases-decreases-time/
    An important simplifying assumption in William Bengen’s research is that retirees spend constant inflation-adjusted amounts throughout retirement. This may be at odds with the spending patterns of many retirees. An exploration of the data should give us an idea of how people actually change their spending during retirement.
    A well-known early example of spending changes over time for retirees can be found in Michael Stein’s 1998 book, The Prosperous Retirement: Guide to the New Reality. Stein says retirement happens in three phases, popularly known as the Go-Go, Slow-Go, and No-Go years of retirement.
    Also, a boglehead discussion on the topic:
    https://bogleheads.org/wiki/Models_of_spending_as_retirement_progresses
  • Bill Bengen Anwsers Three Q's Regarding the 4% Rule
    Thanks.
    It's good to hear Bengen.
    His 4% initial w/COLA is a good start, or a good benchmark.
    But there are many approaches - variations of Bengen's, dynamic approaches, increasing equity gradually in retirement, % withdrawals with or without residual values.
    I have explored my own that is a bit more flexible - start with 5% initial and review every 5 yrs and reset if portfolio balance is higher. Another is modification of SWR to SWRM.
    All this means that the retirement withdrawal problem is still searching for a satisfactory solution decades after Bengen's pioneering work.
  • Just received this email. Schwab anti-trust settlement
    I'm awaiting my settlement with Vanguard Retirement funds. Has anyone received any notification concerning this class action lawsuit?
    PM me if you like. I apologize for hi jack.
  • Bond Opportunities?
    "But for bond investors, starting yields matter much more than historical returns—and the higher the yield,
    the better. Current yields are higher today than they have been for most of the past 15 years."

    "Investors can capture a 6% yield on a mix of taxable bonds, including preferred stock.
    That could provide a nice compliment to stocks, particularly in tax-advantaged accounts such as 401(k)s
    and individual retirement accounts. ......
    When bond share prices fall, yields rise. In the past, I have chosen to ride it down and reinvest the rising yields. But at 70 now, I think my risk tolerance will not permit such a thing anymore. I've created a cash-ballast sleeve, and moved a bunch into higher quality bonds, rather than Junk. "Time to preserve your portfolio," as quoted by someone else in this thread. :)
  • Bond Opportunities?
    "But for bond investors, starting yields matter much more than historical returns—and the higher the yield,
    the better. Current yields are higher today than they have been for most of the past 15 years."

    "Investors can capture a 6% yield on a mix of taxable bonds, including preferred stock.
    That could provide a nice compliment to stocks, particularly in tax-advantaged accounts such as 401(k)s
    and individual retirement accounts. Here is a closer look at five fixed-income sectors."

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/savingandinvesting/bonds-are-a-good-bet-again-where-to-find-yields-of-6-or-more/ar-AA1Dcba4
  • FPA Crescent fund‘s - Steve Romick on M*
    @larryB - We’ve held Wellesley for over 10-yrs and did well until the Fed raised rates. Prior to retirement we simply continued DCAing into investments like VWIAX. But I didn’t have a mindset allowing me to move our Wellesley investment elsewhere. So your concern about those long duration bonds is valid.
  • FPA Crescent fund‘s - Steve Romick on M*
    @larryB - I get it. I used to ignore active funds; then funds with er’s over .5%. Now in retirement I find I want an active fund manager(s) to conservatively manage a part of my investment. FPACX’s data is compelling:
    - ~60% in equity (Domestic & International) even though our portfolio only holds 35% in equity
    - all 3 managers eating their cooking to the tune of $1m+
    - 5-yr upside/downside capture ratio 116/81 (pretty good blood pressure)
    - top ranked returns 3 of last 4 years.
    - and cash right now paying over 4%, I like that they’re looking to invest in their best ideas.
    So for now, I’m looking to continue investing here.
  • Wednesday was no dead cat bounce says…….
    IIRC, the PE ratio back in 1982 was in the single digits. That's what I call real capitulation. It's Just my WAG that current valuations are twice that after all the recent activity. I don't think that's where great bull markets typically start.
    I don't believe in charts, so take my comments accordingly.
    Great point. The 82 bull also came after the going nowhere years of 66-82. Back then it seemed all of a sudden the baby boomers then in their early thirties woke up one day and began thinking about their retirement and so began the rush into equities. The 80s were the best of times - music, movies, TV series, etc. I don’t believe in charts either. Never met a rich chartist.
  • Current Market Activity: ad infinitum
    @PressmUp. Not me. I am perhaps half way through retirement and the regime might last longer than me. A big enough crash might be enticing but it would be for sport. It’s an age thing.
  • Tariffs
    I disagree. Everything has a shelf life.
    First, of course, they won't have the opportunity to "vote for him again no matter what" as president unless well, unless the unthinkable.
    Next, regardless if NO MATTER WHAT is in CAPS or not...His base is clearly stoopid, but if any/all of you lose your job, your home, your retirement savings, the country went belly up and we're on the brink of nuclear war, a worthy % of the cultists will fold.
    There are already, albeit weak, signs that some of the cardboard cut out Red Party legislators are starting to buckle. The 2-week recess couldn't come at a better time. Those a-holes are going to be getting earfuls in their districts.
    And I'll conclude my participation on this by saying I'm sure few thought McCarthyism would die either.
  • Tariffs
    So now Donnie is insulting people who are worried about their retirement accounts...
    “The United States has a chance to do something that should have been done DECADES AGO. “Don’t be Weak! Don’t be Stupid! Don’t be a PANICAN (A new party based on Weak and Stupid people!). Be Strong, Courageous, and Patient, and GREATNESS will be the result!”
    A far cry from FDR's reassuring fireside chats, eh?
  • Tariffs
    But then people will shift their attention back to the destruction of the entire government instead of their retirement accounts. Can't afford to stop the destruction of the world economy until said destruction of the US government is complete. Distractions are gooood.
  • Stocks Are Set to Extend Sharp Fall
    Treasury Secretary Bessent is full of insights.
    "During an interview with NBC News’ 'Meet the Press,' Bessent called it a 'false narrative' that Americans
    who are close to retiring may be reticent to do so after their retirement savings may have dropped this week
    due to the stock market downturn."

    “'I think that’s a false narrative,' he told moderator Kristen Welker.
    'Americans who want to retire right now, the Americans who put away for years in their savings accounts,
    I think they don’t look at the day-to-day fluctuations.'”

    https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/06/treasury-secretary-scott-bessent-markets-tariffs-recession.html
  • Stagflation - "This Economic Paradox Nearly Took Down Three Presidents.."
    @Sven. Since 28 March 2025, I'm liking TBills, CDs, IG Bonds. I do think that since inflation will not be demand driven, Fed may step in down the road. That said, IG Bonds have not been the place to be for years. Hopes of lower rates have just not materialized.
    IG Corporate Bonds now paying 5-6% over10-20 years, callable though.
    Fun fact. In May 2007, height of market back then, I bought my retirement home putting 20% down and took a 30-year fixed mortgage paying 6.5%! So, I think years of ZIRP since have probably distorted my perspective on rates.
  • Liberation Day! What’s the play?
    Everyone’s financial situation is different. We are near retirement and thus we stay conservative in our allocation. 65-70% are in bonds and cash while the remaining 30-35% in stocks. Don’t think this drawdown has playout completely and there are more downside in coming months. We will stay patient and collect generous dividends from bonds and cash. Will buy more T bills this weekend as others mature next week.
  • Barron’s Funds Quarterly+ (2025/Q1–April 7, 2025)
    Barron’s Funds Quarterly+ (2025/Q1–April 7, 2025)
    https://www.barrons.com/topics/mutual-funds-quarterly
    (Performance data quoted in this Supplement are for 2025/Q1 and YTD to 3/31/25)
    (No Supplement – it’s all within the main issue)
    (Congratulations to @LewisBraham who seems to be in charge of all features now)
    Pg 18: A list of defensive, chaos-resistant funds. (By @LewisBraham at MFO)
    “Cash”: Money-market and ultra-short-term bond funds
    Bonds: BND,CBLDX, FFIAX, FPFIX
    Large-Cap-Value: ACMVX, GQHPX, SCHD, TWEIX
    International/Global: CIVVX, LVHI, SGENX
    Gold-Bullion: GLDM
    Alts: BAMBX, PCBAX, QDSNX, QLENX
    Pg 20: In 2025/Q1, gold, bonds and foreign stocks were winners. Large-cap-growth and cryptos were losers. SP500 peaked on 2/19/25. There were strong inflows into the money-market, ultra-short-term and intermediate-term bond funds. (By @LewisBraham at MFO)
    More on Funds & Retirement
    Popular dividend-blend etf SCHD has increased its energy exposure to 21% after the recent reconstitution; the next sectors are consumers 19%, healthcare 15%. Alternative ETFs include VIG, VYM, DGRO.
    INTERVIEW/Q&A – FUNDS. Sean SUN, Thornburg etf TXUG. The international growth fund has been hurt by its Chinese exposure, but those stocks are now rebounding. He looks for quality and durable growth at reasonable prices (GARP). The Fund includes emerging growth, mature growth and industry leaders. He doesn’t worry about risks to Taiwanese chip industry from China-Taiwan frictions. There are also carveouts for chips in the new US tariffs (25% for S Korea). The obesity drug sector will continue to have strong growth.
    RETIREMENT.
    GOLD is hot (relatively), but retirees shouldn’t chase it. Gold has had several short-term rallies, but it doesn’t have a good long-term record. For small positions, use gold-bullion IAU, GLDM, SGOL, GLD. In taxable accounts, higher collectibles capital gain rate of 28% applies. Goldminers are catching up in 2025 – GDX, GDXJ. Ignore the ads for Gold IRAs.
    Stick to your portfolio allocations and don’t do anything rash during the market turmoil. Keep the money you may need in 1-2 years in “cash” (money-market funds, ultra-short-term bond funds, T-Bills, high-yield savings accounts, short-term CDs).
    Barron’s weekend issue has CASH TRACK charts showing 4-wMA of flows.
    https://i.ibb.co/4D8Q7Dm/Barrons-Cash-Track-040525.png
    Q1 Top 5 Fund Categories (MFOP Quarterly Metrics)
    image
    Q1 Bottom 5 Fund Categories (MFOP Quarterly Metrics)
    image
    LINK
  • This Investing Trend Is Your Friend—Until It Isn’t
    I never used momentum indexes; I only used typical funds but looked at the best risk/reward ones and kept changing according to uptrends, and several parameters.
    How to do that? It's the $64K. I developed my system for years, just as I developed my timing one for retirement. None is mechanical. See (link).
    I have posted for over 15 years on several boards, and I can say that there are maybe 5-7 people who do it well. The rest don't believe it, don't want to put in the effort, or don't care.
  • Liberation Day! What’s the play?
    Roger all that.
    From March 1, 2025:
    https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/01/doge-actions-may-cause-social-security-benefit-interruption-ex-agency-head.html
    Excerpt (BOLD added):
    ...
    “Ultimately, you’re going to see the system collapse and an interruption of benefits,” O’Malley said. “I believe you will see that within the next 30 to 90 days.”
    ...
    For people who are already receiving Social Security benefits, most of that is automated and may not be affected, she said. However, processing new claims — whether it be for retirement or disability benefits — may take longer since those cannot be processed without Social Security employees, Hornick said.
    IF they are affected, pretty sure There Will Be Blood.
    Tick. Tick. Tick.
    EDIT: An apparent afternoon (IMO) dead cat bounce, if it holds, will play nicely into the plans of anyone who is today running from this scary looking freight train.