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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • M* US MultiSector Bond Category
    Just be aware with securitized (MBS) funds.....SYFFX lost -31% in 1Q 2020, as many of these funds were crushed at the time. That's why I don't hold more HOSIX.
    It's not that history will repeat, but it can.
    Good observation. I normally don’t look further than 5 years (and place more emphasis on 3 year returns), and don’t look at individual quarters that far back. so I probably would have missed that. That is also something to consider.
  • M* US MultiSector Bond Category
    Just be aware with securitized (MBS) funds.....SYFFX lost -31% in 1Q 2020, as many of these funds were crushed at the time. That's why I don't hold more HOSIX.
    It's not that history will repeat, but it can.
  • prwcx expands # 'co-managers'
    Are there any concerns that Mr. Giroux might be spread too thin?
    Sure I have a concern, plus he's been there a long time and could be considering promotion or retirement at some point. So I watch my PRWCX and would have no problem reducing to a toehold if necessary.
    That said, I don't like how they're trying to capitalize on the 'Capital Appreciation' moniker. I get why TRowe would do it, but at times it does make me a bit uncomfortable seeing ithem expand the 'brand' like this.
  • “The one-fund Portfolio as a default suggestion”
    Global Wellington (VGWLX/ VGWAX) or Wellesley (VGWIX / VGYAX)?
    I agree that one will rarely go wildly wrong with Wellington management. I think it is difficult to go with one fund, or even three, if one expects to have asset allocations change as market conditions change. Not to sound discouraging here, but the more one wants a portfolio to have a certain mix, the harder it is to satisfy that with a single fund.
    When you say that you'd like a fund with more foreign securities, it sounds to me either that you'd like a fund that actively adjusts foreign vs. domestic, or that you'd like a fund that holds a fixed, larger percentage foreign securities; I'm guessing the former.
    With that in mind here are WGWLX's VGWLX 's foreign vs. domestic common stock ratios over time:
    Aug 31, 2019: 46% foreign (34.7% domestic out of 64.8% total common stock)
    August 31, 2020: 40% foreign (39.2% domestic out of 65.1% common stock)
    August 31, 2021: 41% foreign (38.3% domestic out of 65.1% common stock)
    August 31, 2022: 40% foreign (38.9% domestic out of 64.9% common stock)
    August 31, 2023: 42% foreign (38.1% domestic out of 65.2% common stock)
    August 31, 2024: 47% foreign (34.8% domestic out of 65.5% common stock)
    Feb 28, 2025: 44% foreign (36.2% domestic out of 64.8% common stock)
    June 30, 2025: 44% foreign (36.37% domestic equity out of 65.36% total equity)
    Some tweaking perhaps, but perhaps also more a reflection of issue selection than a conscious move offshore. Hard to tell at this 10,000 foot level.
    My larger concern with an all in one fund is what bonds do or don't do for you. Certainly they add ballast (temper moves both up and down) whether they are part of an all in one fund or in a pure bond fund. What they also can provide is insurance against sequence of return risk. If the market does well, all fine and good and one can keep whatever allocation one is targeting. But when the market swoons, the bond (or cash) portion of a portfolio can serve as a reserve - as a place from which to draw needed cash until the market recovers. One can do that with a separate bond (cash) fund; one can't do that with an allocation fund.
    I'm playing around with simplifying my portfolio. Aside from some small/mid cap holdings for spice and MMFs/T-bills for cash, I'm trying out a four fund portfolio. A bond fund (for the reason noted above), a domestic allocation fund (for professional management of fixed income percentage), a global stock fund (for professional management of foreign equity percentage), and a domestic equity fund (see Warren Buffett :-)). I've had to add a foreign equity fund to increase foreign holdings - the same issue you're facing. Right now I'd rather add that foreign fund than move some of the domestic fund into the global fund.
    Reiterating what I said at the outset - the fewer funds one has, the more difficult it is to get a desired allocation, especially as one changes the target over time.
  • GMO Latest
    Grantham has been wrong for over 15 years.
    Hussman and Arnott have been wrong for as long.
    These people forgot that markets collapse many times based on special conditions/situations.
    2008-MBS
    2018-Fed raised rates 3-4 times within a year.
    2020-Covid
    2022-Inflation made the Fed raise rates very rapidly.
    Valuation models aren’t gospel. They’re frameworks, often rigid ones. Markets don’t “obey” a PE ratio, a CAPE model, or any single metric. They move based on flows, positioning, liquidity, sentiment, and risk appetite — none of which those “experts” fully capture.
    Articulation ≠ expertise. Some people build reputations on talking smoothly on CNBC or writing clever papers. But if you look under the hood, their track records are mediocre or not disclosed at all. A true expert has numbers behind them, not just words.
    Macro talk rarely drives short-term results. Tariffs, inflation debates, and political narratives — they sound convincing, but the link between those stories and stock prices in the next 1–12 months is weak. Liquidity and momentum can swamp those factors.
    The real experts are rare. They don’t talk much because they’re too busy managing money. They know the limits of prediction and don’t oversell their opinions.
    So, how can anyone listen or invest with these guys?
  • The Stock Market Is Getting Scary. Here’s What You Should Do. By Burton G. Malkiel
    Gerrymandering Prisoners:
    In NAACP v. Merrill, plaintiffs challenged prison gerrymandering in Connecticut as a violation of one person, one vote. In Connecticut (and other states), prisoners are counted as residents of the districts where their prisons are located, as opposed to being counted as residents of their home address. While the Second Circuit affirmed, for the first time, that plaintiffs could sue a state over prison gerrymandering, both parties filed for dismissal in April 2020.
  • The Stock Market Is Getting Scary. Here’s What You Should Do. By Burton G. Malkiel
    [snip]
    According to an article in today's NYT, "The Democratic Party is hemorrhaging voters long before they even go to the polls.
    Of the 30 states that track voter registration by political party, Democrats lost ground to Republicans in every single one between the 2020 and 2024 elections — and often by a lot.
    That four-year swing toward the Republicans adds up to 4.5 million voters, a deep political hole that could take years for Democrats to climb out from. The stampede away from the Democratic Party is occurring in battleground states, the bluest states and the reddest states, too ..."
    The Financial Times recently published their Business Book of the Year 2025—the longlist.
    The following book was on the list.
    In Outclassed: How the Left Lost the Working Class and How to Win Them Back, Joan C Williams looks
    at the US left’s failure to challenge the rise of Trump, through the lens of workers and the working class.
    She aims to explain how that happened and how the Democratic elite might use economic and political tools
    to recover support.
  • The Stock Market Is Getting Scary. Here’s What You Should Do. By Burton G. Malkiel

    My personal belief is that those people were there all along, but until the communications revolution of the internet and streaming video they were relatively isolated, without the ability to easily communicate with others of similar beliefs, and they were essentially isolated into fairly small but unorganized groups.
    Now they've found each other, and all hell has broken loose.
    Maybe we are in fact simply merely becoming a lot more of what we always really were.

    You may have a point, Old Joe.
    According to an article in today's NYT, "The Democratic Party is hemorrhaging voters long before they even go to the polls.
    Of the 30 states that track voter registration by political party, Democrats lost ground to Republicans in every single one between the 2020 and 2024 elections — and often by a lot.
    That four-year swing toward the Republicans adds up to 4.5 million voters, a deep political hole that could take years for Democrats to climb out from. The stampede away from the Democratic Party is occurring in battleground states, the bluest states and the reddest states, too ..."
  • JPMorgan Climate Change Solutions ETF will be liquidated
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1485894/000119312525182663/d50317d497.htm
    497 1 d50317d497.htm J.P. MORGAN EXCHANGE-TRADED FUND TRUST
    J.P. MORGAN EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS
    JPMorgan Climate Change Solutions ETF
    (the “Fund”)
    (a series of J.P. Morgan Exchange-Traded Fund Trust)
    Supplement dated August 18, 2025
    to the current Summary Prospectus, Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information, as supplemented
    NOTICE OF LIQUIDATION OF THE JPMORGAN CLIMATE CHANGE SOLUTIONS ETF. The Board of Trustees (the “Board”) of the Fund has approved the liquidation and dissolution of the Fund on or about October 10, 2025 (the “Liquidation Date”). Effective immediately, in connection with the liquidation and dissolution, the Fund may depart from its stated investment objective and strategies as it increases its cash holdings in preparation for its liquidation. On the Liquidation Date (for settlement, the date after the Liquidation Date), the Fund shall distribute pro rata to its shareholders of record all of the assets of the Fund in complete cancellation and redemption of all of the outstanding shares of beneficial interest, except for cash, bank deposits or cash equivalents in an estimated amount necessary to (i) discharge any unpaid liabilities and obligations of the Fund on the Fund’s books on the Liquidation Date, including, but not limited to, income dividends and capital gains distributions, if any, payable through the Liquidation Date, and (ii) pay such contingent liabilities as the officers of the Fund deem appropriate subject to ratification by the Board. Income dividends and capital gain distributions, if any, may be paid on or prior to the Liquidation Date.
    After the close of business on Friday, October 3, 2025, the Fund will no longer accept creation orders. This is also expected to be the last day of trading of shares of the Fund on the NYSE Arca, Inc. (“NYSE”). Shareholders should be aware that after the close of business on Friday, October 3, 2025, the Fund will no longer engage in any business activities except for the purposes of selling and converting into cash all of the assets of the Fund, paying its liabilities, and distributing its remaining proceeds or assets to shareholders (the “Liquidating Distribution”). Furthermore, during the time between market close on Friday, October 3, 2025 and the Liquidation Date, shareholders will be unable to dispose of their shares on NYSE.
    Shareholders may sell their holdings of the Fund, incurring typical transaction fees from their broker-dealer, on NYSE until market close on Friday, October 3, 2025, at which point the Fund’s shares will no longer trade on NYSE and the shares will be subsequently delisted. Shareholders who continue to hold shares of the Fund on the Liquidation Date will receive a Liquidating Distribution (if any) with a value equal to their proportionate ownership interest in the Fund on that date. Such Liquidating Distribution received by a shareholder, if any, may be in an amount that is greater or less than the amount a shareholder might receive if they dispose of their shares on NYSE prior to market close on Friday, October 3, 2025. The Fund’s liquidation and payment of the Liquidating Distribution may occur prior to or later than the dates listed above.
    Shareholders who receive a Liquidating Distribution generally will recognize a capital gain or loss equal to the amount received for their shares over their adjusted basis in such shares. Please consult your personal tax advisor about the potential tax consequences.
    INVESTORS SHOULD RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT
    WITH THE SUMMARY PROSPECTUS, PROSPECTUS AND STATEMENT OF ADDITIONAL
    INFORMATION FOR FUTURE REFERENCE
    SUP-TEMP-825
  • Approaches to placing ETF trade orders?
    In my limited experience, the answer really depends on several factors. For example, securities traded in high volume, >10M shares or higher, have narrow ask and bid prices while these values fluctuate throughout the day as they are being traded. Conversely, low volume securities trade are volatile and challenging to trade. During down market, stocks can fall several % in that day and it snap back at closing or it may continue to fall. This is where one needs the proper training. Day traders on meme stocks often don’t fare well.
    Professional traders who are skilled to exploit these movements do much better. Small gains in large block trades start to add up. But these traders have many supports. I still have much to learn, thus i stay within my competence.
    @larryB, SCHD is traded in high volume on daily basis. Trading at market price throughout the day is probably close to the closing market price.
    @hank, i am using the free version of Stock Tracker: real time - pretty old fashion layout but it works. The advanced version costs $90 a year.
  • Trends in 401k Allocations
    My 403(b) remains entirely in dividend-paying equities in RWMGX. Thankfully Capital Group's funds aren't beholden to (or track) the Mag-7 that overweights indices and therefore forces insane performance-chasing. For some accounts, I boring is beautiful.
    The only changes to that account I'd consider making right now is shiftting a not-insignificant (25-40%) percentage into EUPAC (RERGX) for greater international diversification .. but I'm still on the fence.
  • Trends in 401k Allocations
    Thanks @yogibearbull.
    A subscriber. Pulled up the article which bears out what I expected.
    ”Workers across nearly all age groups are investing record portions of their 401(k) accounts in equities. After years of relentless market gains, they are either allocating more to stocks or having it done for them by money managers.”
    Historically flows into these plans have increased when markets are hot but have fallen off during bear markets. Going from recollection. Perhaps someone will prove me wrong. But if correct … they’re doing it backwards. Ought to invest more in down markets.
  • M* Annual Mutual Fund List
    @PRESSmUP,
    From the VTMFX fact sheet (dated June 30, 2025):
    "The fund invests approximately 50% to 55% of its assets in municipal securities
    and the balance in common stocks. The fixed income portion of the fund is concentrated
    in high-quality municipal securities with a dollar-weighted average maturity expected
    to be between 6 and 12 years."
    "The fund’s stock holdings are chosen from the stocks that pay lower dividends
    within the Russell 1000 Index—an index that is made up of stocks of large- and
    mid-capitalization U.S. companies. The fund uses statistical methods to 'sample'
    the index, aiming to minimize taxable dividends while approximating the other
    characteristics of the index."
    https://institutional.vanguard.com/assets/corp/fund_communications/pdf_publish/us-products/fact-sheet/F0103.pdf
    According to M*, the equity sleeve mirrors Vanguard Tax-Managed Capital Appreciation,
    while the muni sleeve is similar to Vanguard Intermediate-Term Tax-Exempt.
    https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/vtmfx/analysis
  • M* Annual Mutual Fund List
    I have the dubious distinction of owning one fund on that list, in a taxable account. As of today the fund reported YTD realized capital gains of over 14% of NAV. Its after tax returns, already poor, are getting much worse.
  • Do you currently have any shorts on? (+ other hedges)
    Thanks. Learned more than I wanted to.
    I’ve made a few pennies in the past shorting some / all of the 3 major indexes over short periods (couple or few weeks). Luck. Could have gone either way. And the gains weren’t large. You’d have lost your pants keeping shorts on all the time in this market. @yogibearbull. I’ll need to learn more about options.
  • QDSNX Confusion
    With the market at an all time high, and generally considered to be overvalued, I bought additional shares in QDSNX, an alternative fund with an excellent risk/reward profile which has worked very well for me so far.
    It never had a losing calendar year since its inception in July 2020. Even in 2022, a year of significant losses for most funds, the fund's total return was a gain of 14.5%. The max. drawdown over the life of the fund was 4.55%, that was from June to July of 2022. The drawdown was recovered by November 2022, according to Portfolio Visualizer. 
    By the way, QDSNX's correlation to the S&P 500 is 0.12.
    That’s a great correlation. Every decent equity or allocation fund has a .80-.90 correlation to index.
    Even JPMorgan Hedged Equity Fund, JHQAX, and FPACX has correlation of .70-75 for 5, 10 year periods. JPMorgan Hedged Equity Fund I (JHEQX) Is .85.
    BLNDX does have .11 correlation.
  • Plz help me wrap my head around the tax liability connected to my shares in an L.P.
    If you don’t sell, then you still have Annual Tax Liabilities for Holding LP Interests.
    Your Schedule K-1 is where all pass-through items show up.
    Federal Income Tax on Distributive Share
    Your share of the LP’s profits and losses “pass through” to you each year, even if no cash is distributed. You’ll owe ordinary income tax on your distributive share of business income and capital gains at your individual rates.
    Reporting and Forms
    Each year the partnership files Form 1065 and issues you a Schedule K-1. You report the K-1 items—ordinary income, interest, rental income, capital gains, etc.—on Schedule E of Form 1040 and pay any tax due with your return.
    Self-Employment Tax
    If you’re a general partner, you’ll owe self-employment tax on your share of ordinary business income. Limited partners generally avoid SE tax on distributions unless they receive guaranteed payments for services or materially participate beyond the “limited partner” rules.
    Estimated Tax Payments
    Because LP distributions typically have no withholding, you’ll need to make quarterly estimated tax payments to the IRS and state authorities. Underpaying can trigger penalties and interest, so use last year’s tax or the safe-harbor methods to calculate your installments.
    State and Local Income Taxes
    If the LP operates in multiple states, you may have to file returns and pay income tax where the partnership has nexus. Some states impose entity-level taxes or fees in addition to personal income tax on your distributive share.
    ---
    Other Annual Considerations
    - Passive activity loss limitations may restrict deductions if you don’t materially participate; unused losses carry forward.
    - Net Investment Income Tax (3.8%) can apply to capital gains, interest, and certain rental income above AGI thresholds.
    - Alternative Minimum Tax preferences can be triggered by partnership items.
    Tracking Basis:
    Basis and At-Risk Limitations
    Initial Basis: Cash or property you contributed.
    Adjustments:
    Increase by your share of income and additional contributions.
    Decrease by distributions and your share of losses.
    Loss Deductions: Limited to the lesser of your basis or “at-risk” amount (usually equal to basis for LPs)
    https://accountinginsights.org/the-taxation-of-a-limited-partnership/
    https://www.upcounsel.com/limited-partnership-tax-return
  • Wasatch International Small Cap Value & Wasatch Global Small Cap Value funds - now available
    Thanks for posting the link!
    I don't interpret it as having trouble, but the funds are in "quiet period" with SEC so they are getting everything in order before the funds start to being offered. It appears the opening date has been moved from August 11 to September 10. Look at how long the T Rowe Price Capital Appreciation and Income Fund was announced back in 2017/2018 only to open a year or two ago.