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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    For mama acct - capital preservations are keys
    Add more BOEING BA 097023AM7, ytm 5.** % BBB- rated, mature 15-Jun-2025, no insurance. http://www.oblible.com/bond-US097023AM78.htm
    https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BA?p=BA&.tsrc=fin-srch
    https://www.macroaxis.com/target-price/BA
    also dca more into FIDELITY 2015: FFVFX
    kind regards
  • Ex-FTX CEO Bankman-Fried arrested in Bahamas as U.S. files charges
    The whole thing stinks miles to Sunday...how come none of his colleagues have been arrested yet? Who is Ellison, Wang, Singh, etc...are we supposed to beleive they aren't complicit?
    Why is there not more noise about him influencing mid term elections with his millions stolen money donationt to the dems?
    His Mother...the well connected Democrat lefty fund raiser..."Mind the Gap"...funneling monies to the lefties..his Dad, Bankman, a leading expert on state and federal tax shelters...Aunt working for the Socialist Schwab at WEF and his MMT techno babble gobbly gook...brother a vaccine/pandemic "fanboy" ... F them with a Capital F all of them, throw them in jail! As mentioned prior...Bermuda homes...oh oh our boy is in trouble better try to put them in someone else's name etc.
    You couldn't make this shit up even if you were a Hollywood screenwriter.
    The reason he didn't skate and skip out to another country is he is thinking he bought protection and will get away with it.
    Maxine Waters, big fan of his...go figure...how the heck is she House Chair Finance Committe...you got to be shitting me, I wouldn't trust her ability to run a Jack in the Box franchise...wasn't Gensler before this happened championing to assist FTX in the regulatory arena?
    What a bunch of crack pots, weirdos...who would put monies with ths clown just based on his appearance and how he talks.
    Yeesh.
  • How are you positioned going into 23'?
    Pretty much topped out in the IRA, with mostly stock funds, and 25% cash. Will look at selling to raise some cash and reposition if the current rally continues. We don't need IRA income at the moment, so we can let it ride for another five-six years. I might take some cap distributions, but otherwise reinvesting in a dog's breakfast of a fund portfolio Christine Benz would love to simplify. Will really need to simplify as distributions approach.
    Still at 40% cash in the taxable. Harvesting some tax losses in theses I no longer have interest in. Looking for buying opportunities in the near future as inflation news continues. Mainly focused on dividends, health, tech, utilities, alt energy, water, and staples. Taking a few cap gains distributions to help with the holidays. But otherwise reinvesting.
    Not living large. But the house is paid for. And cash flow is currently less stressful than when we were working.
  • A Timely Analysis of Market Declines Written in March 2020
    https://www.raymondjames.com/fosterfitzsimmons/blog/2020/03/06/investors-make-money-the-old-fashioned-way-they-earn-it
    I was curious about the John Houseman commercial for Smith-Barney in the 80's and a search led me to the above article published by Raymond James. The subject is not so much the ubiquitous advertisement, but the history of the numerous market draw downs that investors have endured over the past century or so. The authors of this piece could easily be writing about the 2022 market declines. The piece was prescient in 2020, to say the least. I found wisdom and solace in the historical approach; market declines are normal and must be endured. One "earns" money not by avoiding the pullbacks, but by enduring them. A nice collection of easily graspable statistics and nicely arranged tables make for easy reading.
  • How are you positioned going into 23'?
    Curious as to how folks are positioning their portfolios going into the New Year.
    I remain cautious as always, top down as follows:
    Tbill/Note/CD laddered out to 1 month thru 5 years (~80-85% of portfolio)
    AMEX money market online savings
    PMEFX
    PVCMX
    FORTX (Abraham Fortress Fund, Abraham Salem runs the fund...rain maker...now avail at Schwab)
    SVARX (thinking that high yield bonds might do very well by end of year 23'?)
    PCAFX (Prospector Capital Appreciation, experienced fund mgr's)
    Thoughts: I believe inflation will be sticky, balance sheet tightening continues, Ukraine/Russia war continues, housing market muddles along, does not collapse, economy slows down but also muddles along, of course all that being said I have no idea and sure hope things get better! I'll leave my political thoughts off this post as prolly better that way, just to keep the focus on investing.
    Best,
    Baseball Fan
  • Timely Tax Ideas from Barron's This Week
    More ideas this week, 12/10/22.
    TAXES and GIVING. The ESTATE exemption of $12.06/$24.12 million (single/joint) is for super-wealthy, but there are many others things that ordinary investors can do. ANNUAL gift EXEMPTION is $16K/yr/person ($17K in 2023) to avoid filing Form 709 (that is tricky but can also be done for larger gifts). Since 2018, standard deduction has been high (90% now just take standard deduction), so consider BUNCHING up charitable contributions (including large DAF contributions), Roth Conversions and other deductions for an itemizing-year. Older folks (70+) can use QCDs that also count for RMDs (72+). This has been a bad year but consider donating long-held APPRECIATED securities or those with rare profits in 2022 (energy). BEWARE that some relaxations for charitable contributions for 2020-21 have expired and don’t apply in 2022.
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/chairty-taxes-giving-strategies-51670454584?mod=past_editions
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/374/barron-december-12-2022-2
  • The $42 Billion Question: Why Aren’t Americans Ditching Big Banks?
    Americans are missing out on billions of dollars in interest by keeping their savings at the biggest U.S. banks.
    Following are edited excerpts from an article in yesterday's Wall Street Journal. While we here at MFO discuss the merits of CDs which pay 4.85%, huge numbers of fellow Americans are earning next to nothing on their bank deposits.

    The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates to their highest level since early 2008. Yet the biggest commercial banks are still paying peanuts to savers. In theory, savers could have earned $42 billion more in interest in the third quarter if they moved their money out of the five largest U.S. banks by deposits to the five highest-yield savings accounts—none of which are offered by the big banks—according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of S&P Global Market Intelligence data.
    The five banks—Bank of America Corp., Citigroup Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co., U.S. Bancorp and Wells Fargo & Co.—paid an average of 0.4% interest on consumer deposits in savings and money-market accounts during the quarter, according to S&P Global. The five highest-yielding savings accounts paid an average of 2.14% during the same period, according to data from Bankrate.com. These five banks collectively hold about half of all the money kept at U.S. commercial banks in savings and money-market accounts tracked by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. That share has held steady despite the availability of higher rates elsewhere.
    The $42 billion gap in the third quarter was the largest amount since record-keeping began, but will likely be dwarfed in the fourth quarter because top high-yield savings accounts have raised their interest rates to more than 3.5%.
    Since the start of 2019, Americans have lost out on at least $291 billion in interest by keeping their savings in the five biggest banks. That total balloons to $603 billion when going back to 2014, when the FDIC started tracking consumer deposits in money-market and other savings accounts.
    And U.S. savers have likely missed out on much more than $600 billion because the average rate the five biggest banks have paid over the past eight years, 0.24%, includes higher-yielding money-market accounts and some business accounts. Traditional savings accounts paid an average rate of 0.02% at the five largest banks during that period.
    Why haven’t savers moved more of their money? Some customers aren’t aware of how much money they could make by switching, and others just don’t care. Alicia Gillum has been with Bank of America for 26 years and says she has no interest in searching for a new bank, even though her savings of more than $100,000 is earning almost no interest. Her loyalty has earned her Platinum Honors Tier status, which affords her a 0.04% interest rate on her savings instead of the 0.01% rate the bank pays to customers of its basic savings accounts.
    Americans flush with stimulus payments and enhanced unemployment checks flooded U.S. banks with deposits earlier in the pandemic. The biggest banks got an outsize share of those deposits. About $425 billion flowed into money-market and savings accounts at U.S. commercial banks between the first quarter of 2020 and the third quarter of 2022, according to the FDIC. More than 95% of that went to the five largest banks.
    But things could be changing. The average rate on money-market and savings accounts at the five largest banks nearly tripled in the third quarter from where it was in the second. And people are starting to move their money around in other ways to take advantage of higher rates, pouring a record amount into higher-yielding savings vehicles such as Series I savings bonds and Treasury bills this year.
    Wow! "Platinum Honors Tier status" at BofA... Now that's really something!
  • Td acquired by schwab
    Schwab + TD Ameritrade deal closed in 2020. But integration of large brokerages is complex and Schwab plans to complete most of the transition for retail by early-2023 and for advisors by late-2023.
    https://www.aboutschwab.com/schwab-statement-on-ameritrade-client-transition-timeline
  • TDA and Schwab
    Any word on when ThinkDesktop will be moved over?? Stunning this integration has taken over 2.5 years and it seems like they're not even halfway done yet. (And Schwab's 'active trader' is horrid compared to ThinkDesktop.)
    Glad I switched over myself back in 2020. I've been thru enough brokerage consolidations that I didn't need any more drama!
  • Here’s where investors made a ‘risk-free’ 6.6% return in the past four U.S. recessions
    The 98 cents you pay now but once matured you get the 100 cents, get 4.5% divs annually base on 100 cents (450$ per yr) that why some cd may yield slightly higher base in purchase price (of course lowered price mean more risks like credit suise cd and higher bankruptcy risks)
    Becareful because Once bankruptcy goes to court may loose all your monies in bonds but may not loose in cd.
    As long as banks are fdic back by Feds investors will get cash back but may take awhile through court procedures.
    That why I am scare buy credits suise but fond of boa or wells Fargo or Chase cd backed w FDIC/FEDS. Better get little less ytm but lessen headaches long terms
    W bonds investments higher grades better to sleep at night, that why you are betting companies won't bellied up in 12 24 or 36 months holding these vehicles (boeing Ford GM Toyota pg&e etc) . Ytm higher than cd near5%
    I am not sure if we need continue hold BBBY
    , previously ut they are cc- or lowered chance bankruptcy so high maybe 40 50% annually. We bought Bbby bonds 4 yrs ago rated bbb but their rating dropped severely bad last 7 8 months because poor run companies, poor Er, and no more creditrd/cash, lost customers and poor overall economic conditions. Price dropped they are due in 6 months so we are holding on hopeful won't bankruptcies in 6 months. If you sell them you loose 50% of capitals or more prices do low.... As long as they don't bankrupt by April next yr we get all capital back once called
  • Small-Cap Stocks Are Really Cheap
    @WABC: I just bought some SYLD after selling some MOAT. Foreign stocks were really cheap late Sept when I bought FNDF in hopes of a rebound, which occurred. Took some good profits and hope to repeat. These days, I’m trying to be less greedy and more satisfied with modest gains. Added to BRSVX.
  • Here’s where investors made a ‘risk-free’ 6.6% return in the past four U.S. recessions
    I think the 6.6% figure comes from capital gains due to falling bond yields and rising bond prices .
  • AQR International Equity Fund to liquidate
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1444822/000119312522299058/d312974d497.htm
    497 1 d312974d497.htm AQR FUNDS
    AQR FUNDS
    Supplement dated December 6, 2022 (“Supplement”)
    to the Class I Shares, Class N Shares and Class R6 Shares
    Summary Prospectus, Prospectus
    and Statement of Additional Information, each dated January 29, 2022, as
    amended, of the AQR International Equity Fund (the “Fund”)
    This Supplement updates certain information contained in the Summary Prospectus, Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information. Please review this important information carefully. You may obtain copies of the Fund’s Summary Prospectus, Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information free of charge, upon request, by calling (866) 290-2688, or by writing to AQR Funds, P.O. Box 2248, Denver, CO 80201-2248.
    At a meeting held on December 6, 2022, the Board of Trustees (the “Board”) of AQR Funds (the “Trust”) approved a proposal to liquidate the Fund. Among other things, the Fund was not viable on an ongoing basis. Accordingly, effective 4:00 P.M. (Eastern time) on January 4, 2023, the Fund will no longer accept orders from new investors or existing shareholders to purchase Fund shares.
    On or about January 4, 2023, AQR Capital Management, LLC, the Fund’s investment adviser, intends to begin liquidating the Fund’s assets in an orderly manner in advance of the Liquidation Date (as defined below). Proceeds from the liquidation of the Fund’s assets will be held in cash and similar instruments pending distribution to shareholders. As a result, the Fund may deviate from its investment strategies and policies and cease to pursue its investment objective. The Fund may incur transaction costs from liquidating portfolio holdings and performance may be adversely affected from holding cash and similar instruments.
    The Fund has declared a dividend to all holders of record on January 20, 2023 (the “Record Date”) consisting of any undistributed income and capital gains (net of available capital loss carryovers). On or about January 27, 2023 (the “Liquidation Date”), the Fund will make a liquidating distribution of its remaining assets proportionately to any shareholders holding shares on the Liquidation Date. Shareholders may redeem their Fund shares or exchange their shares into shares of another series of AQR Funds, subject to any restrictions in the Fund’s Prospectus, at any time prior to the Liquidation Date.
    The liquidation of the Fund is expected to have tax consequences for a taxable shareholder. Any final capital gain dividend will be treated as long-term capital gain, and any final income dividend will be taxable as ordinary income, or as qualified dividend income to the extent of the Fund’s income that so qualifies (which is taxed at the same preferential tax rate as long- term capital gain). The Fund’s final liquidating distribution will result in capital gain or loss to the receiving shareholder. Shareholders should consult their tax advisors concerning their tax situation and the impact of the liquidation and/or exchanging to a different fund has on their tax situation.
    We appreciate your investment in the AQR Funds. For more information, please contact the Trust at (866) 290-2688.
    PLEASE RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT FOR YOUR FUTURE REFERENCE
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Always eager to read what @rforno is buying or selling. :)
    Personally ….
    - I’ve sold off 2 of my 3 largest equity holdings in recent weeks. Took a nice profit on the global reinsurer I’d held most of the year. Break-even, or a slight loss, on a major bank. Kept the large international food conglomerate, but sold off a little. It’s about break-even since buying early in the year but has been making up lost ground as the dollar has begun to weaken.
    - Unloaded 100% of a significant hold in ABRZX. I was very wrong in my previous positive appraisal of that fund - especially its ability to hold up during down markets. Moved the same sum into an old favorite TRRIX. For that matter, both of the afore mentioned funds have stunk up the joint pretty good this year. But the latter’s .49% ER takes away some of the stench. (ABRZX charges 1.37%).
    - Added CVSIX to my “Alternative” sleeve with $$ from the stock sales. The thinking here is that with now higher prevailing interest rates, it’s a decent place to hide. Also, some positive commentary on convertible bonds in a recent Barron’s.
    - I added 2 small spec positions yesterday. Each represents only 1% of my total invested assets: BCAT & GUG. They caught my attention when reading Randall Forsyth’s always fine Barron’s column over the weekend. Frankly, I’ve had no prior experience with closed-end funds. So am viewing this small venture as mostly a learning experience. (And folks may know that I enjoy dumpster diving.)
    -
    Here’s the passage referenced from this week’s Barron’s (Randall Forsyth).
    “Another bargain is a relatively new type of closed-end fund, which was supposed to avoid sinking to a big discount by going public at net asset value, rather than at a premium, as is usual. Nevertheless, some of these funds have succumbed, including ones from marquee-name portfolio managers such as BlackRock and Guggenheim …. One is BlackRock Capital Allocation Trust (BCAT), which yields 8.52% and trades at a wide 15.93% discount to NAV. The other is the Guggenheim Active Allocation fund (GUG). It yields 10.16% and is quoted at a 12.16% discount. It's no disgrace to delve into offbeat corners to pick up bargains.”
  • Small-Cap Stocks Are Really Cheap
    Source: Barrons
    "Small-caps outperformed during recessions in the 1970s and early 1980s, when the Federal Reserve was fighting high inflation, as it is now. The group has higher proportional exposure than large-caps to inflation beneficiaries, like energy. It’s also more domestic and more tied to capital spending, which is a plus if U.S.-based manufacturers continue moving factories home. But small companies generally have less financial flexibility than large ones, which is a negative if borrowing rates stay elevated.
    One way for investors to add small- cap exposure is with a low-fee index fund like the iShares Russell 2000IWM –2.75% exchange-traded fund (ticker: IWM). Then again, switching indexes might be an upgrade. The S&P SmallCap 600SP600EQ –2.60% index has outperformed the Russell 2000 index by more than a percentage point a year over the past five, 10, and 20 years, and has generally been less volatile. The biggest reason: S&P uses a profitability screen to admit index members. SPDR S&P 600 Small CapSLY –2.81% ETF (SLY) is one fund option there.
    If a profitability screen helps, how about a value tilt? The aforementioned indexes weight small-caps by market cap. Asset manager Research Affiliates has an index that weights them by fundamental measures of value like sales, cash flow, and dividends. Investors can buy in through Schwab Fundamental U.S. Small Company Index ETF (FNDA). It’s more expensive than the other funds, but still cheap, with yearly expenses of 0.25%. Since inception in 2013, the fund has returned 7.4% a year, beating the Russell 2000 by nearly a point through Sept. 30."
    "For actively managed funds that are open to new money, Columbia Small Cap Value II (NSVAX) and Wasatch Core Growth (WGROX) get high marks from Morningstar. Each costs a little more than 1% a year and has beaten its category by about a point a year over the past decade."
  • Small-Cap Stocks Are Really Cheap
    "While many investors are wondering whether it’s safe to start buying those mega-size companies that led the last bull market, it’s actually small-cap stocks that may be the biggest bargains."
    "For smaller-company stocks, price/earnings ratios—a widely used measure for determining the value of a stock relative to its earnings—have reached their lowest levels in two decades. Lower ratios generally represent more attractive values and with a greater potential for price gains."
    Link
  • Nontraded-Funds - NT-REITs, NT-BDCs, IFs
    CELFX did not exist in March 2020. Just saying. Inception date is July 1, 2021
    Swedroe is certainly a known name but the conclusion of his linked AP article is as per below.
    "Bond investors can avoid the risks and costs created by stale pricing in mutual funds by either building their own individual portfolios or engaging a separate account manager."
    First suggestion isn't actionable by the vast majority of individual investors due to the size of the individual bond portfolio needed for adequate diversification and the second suggestion is Swedroe and Advisor Perspectives hawking their wares (nothing wrong with that, just pointing it out). There are no free lunches.
    So would one rather avoid bond funds altogether due to losing 0.04% or invest through RIA who will cost a lot more than 0.04%?
    To each their own.
  • Nontraded-Funds - NT-REITs, NT-BDCs, IFs
    I never said in any of my posts the managers were committing fraud. The appropriate term, "returns smoothing," would be as described in the Advisor Perspectives article:
    Stale pricing can create problems for investors. For example, funds are incented to engage in “return smoothing” by selective use of valuations
    There can be disagreement as to what the "fair value" of a private security is precisely because it does not trade and in many cases could be one of a kind. That's not fraud, but let's just say the pricing can tend to favor the managers of the funds when there is a debate between what they see as the intrinsic value of a private security is versus what the market says publicly traded securities with very similar credit qualities, businesses and risks are worth.
    It reminds me almost of how General Electric used to smooth earnings out so they hit their targets every quarter for many years. I don't think it was ever labeled fraud, but it was disingenuous as to what the company was actually producing earnings wise each quarter. I would trust an interval fund more that marked its portfolio down more during March of 2020 and simply issued a letter to shareholders stating: "We don't think any of our portfolio companies are impaired at this point but the market thinks there is a risk that there could be impairment in the future and so the market is marking down all high risk securities and we are marking ours down accordingly. The good news is because we are an interval fund we are not facing a run on the bank situation like an open-end fund would and if we're right and there is no impairment we should recover all of those losses."
  • Nontraded-Funds - NT-REITs, NT-BDCs, IFs
    The stale pricing issue I am describing is not necessarily particular to this fund but a universal one that is particularly relevant though with private funds that don’t price every day. Most corporate debt funds don’t have pricing that reflects market reality.
    https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3244862
    https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2978284
    https://advisorperspectives.com/articles/2022/09/25/stale-pricing-and-the-risk-to-bond-fund-investors
    I don’t care how skilled of a bank loan manager or high yield bond fund manager one is, in March of 2020 when the whole world was falling apart, there was no way a high risk credit manager could liquidate their portfolios with only a 2% haircut in that environment. To say the portfolio’s liquidation value only fell 2% then is unrealistic.
    As for my largest position, cash remains it.