I was in India a few years ago and while cities appear to be growing, the lack of infrastructure is apparent everywhere. Electrical power is not lacking and the socialists are in total control which limits new investments. Oil prices are hurting economy, so they need nuclear, but can't afford the subsequent rates required to finance. Imho, they need a dictator to run country for 10 years to get country on track. Everything I read on Bloomberg indicates that repeat of 1991 crisis is likely, rupee will keep crashing until elections May 2014. Hopefully, Matthews has taken this into consideration on stock picks there.

Not for short term investors - could do anything over next few years. I've dabbled before but am getting too old for this one - so don't own. (1) The new PM is hell-bent on getting inflation up to 2% a year within next couple years. He has the popular backing to basically run-over their conservative central bank - so will probably get his way. Some economists think this may be enough to rekindle the economy after 20+ years of deflation - essentially a permanent state of depression.
(2) A second "loose ball" here is the growing dispute with ancient enemy China over a group of small uninhabited islands (in a chain which includeTiawan). Recently both scrambled fighter jets to the area, but calmer heads prevailed - for the day anyhow. Interestingly, the islands offer a vantage point of China's nuclear subs departing the mainland for long missions. As such, China has a keen strategic interest in taking control. Looks like this situation may rekindle Japaneese nationalism and militarism. Now, how would a big military buildup affect Japan's economy? My guess is it would be good for it - short term anyway. Catch, if you invested in Japan it would be a far cry from your old conservative fund boat mantra. Plays on specific foreign nations or regions are inherently more risky than more diversified funds. Take care.

---The original bailout; past all of the nasties of financial institutions and associated, being their practices and morals, was likely needed to prevent full blown financial chaos, meaning and including, limited access to your electronic investment dollars, which are a series of 1's and 0's residing within a server.
Central bankers, governments all around the globe and companies.....growth, growth, growth.
Is economic growth a substitute for having a happy family and a quality life; full of gotta have it things? Some amount of wealth surely can contribute to an individuals/family opportunities to advance their position in society. The marketing folks, which include more than those at QVC, HSN, Walmart and related, are found happily at their work in many U.S. federal positions, too. The congressional folks are always marketing this or that; and this would include the current actions of the Federal Reserve; and the chairman, more so. And a U.S. president thinks they have power, eh?
So, is the pure mandate of an economy and those involved; to shape policy for, growth at any cost? Has such a model provided much benefit in reducing poverty or adding equality among population groups? While this may seem an "off-the-wall" note related to investing; many of these actions on a large enough scale or as a cumulative cluster of monies always affects people and for we here, the investing cycles. One must consider whether this grand experiment in current monetary policy may indeed, "Burn down the house" in the name of growth and a lower unemployment rate that may have entered a phase of economic cycle that is "now normal". Japan is still working on this model; although most of their debt is internally owned, unlike the U.S. The Federal Reserve and Treasury are working on this, too; and may indeed own most of whatever resembles the U.S. government credit markets, going forward.
The dog, spinning in a never-ending circle, we know; never really may catch it's tail, regardless of the size or speed of the dog. A continued "bark, bark" does not help.
Perhaps the ultimate goal of a central bank, in the developed countries; should be to determine (if this is possible) how much monetary stimulus could help a given economy during times of stress, and merely issue monies, tax free to each and every citizen who is of legal status to that country. Based upon data believed to be correct; during the past 4 years about $3.2 trillion of Fed. Reserve actions have been put in place, against a U.S. population of about 316 million. The math indicates about $10,127 per capita or a family of 4 receiving a little over $40,000 during the last 4 years. Yes, some of this money would be wasted from poor decisions; but much of it would have been spent properly and likely generating income for businesses, who in turn may have hired more folks; and all involved would have paid more in taxes at a federal, state and local level.
Alas and meanwhile; the dog chases it's tail.
Final notes, and not all inclusive; by any means, in no particular order.
--- 1995 brought NAFTA, GATT and the World Trade Organization via a lame duck congressional session.
--- Mr. Clinton.
Mr. Clinton publically declares that Glass-Steagall is no longer relevant.
--- Grant money. Check around your community/state for projects pending or in place; and review how much of the funding monies are in the form of a federal grant. Yes, work is created; and numerous projects are valid, but too many are not. When a community (a true event from about 3 years ago in MI) could not support 10 local and private art "centers", then the local economy has spoken. However, the U.S. district congress person was able to "enable" grants monies to help extend the dying entities. A news story on the same day noted that the local food bank was "empty". Money, not well spent; for the sake of the arts, in my opinion.
--- Silly spenders. Ah, congress and the government. One may not deny that there are those with the truest of hearts and intentions roaming around the streets of D.C. But, they do seem to become derailed in clear thinking, sometimes. I will only note two items. Fuel from corn and/or bio-products is one such area. The cost and benefit, from my knowledge is to the downside. Okay, a new market for corn is in place and some jobs have been created. The downside of the E85 blend is problems with use in older engines of all types (sludge formation, causing numerous problems) and take a look at a new vehicle sticker to find the mileage notation when using an E85 fuel, versus traditional unleaded fuel. Say what, it is lower MPG; can't be. Lastly, and an example that crosses many people and places over very many years and not solely directed at this person; is the "bridge to nowhere in Alaska". Come on D.C. people, why don't you all just act properly? Oh, wait there is more.............I almost forgot about the lobby folks in D.C. Talk about stimulating the economy. Well, at least in D.C., for the restaurants and hotels.
--- FASB.
Hey, let us change the rules for bad assets....cool, let's do it
--- Derivatives.
A few trillion among friends, all is well; don't worry, be happy
But, wait; there's more, the infommercial stated
--- Bernanke, May, 2007.
Mr. Bernanke, FRB speech, May, 2007
Mr. Bernanke statements, May, 2007....."But I believe that, in the long run, markets are better than regulators at allocating credit."
"All that said, given the fundamental factors in place that should support the demand for housing, we believe the effect of the troubles in the subprime sector on the broader housing market will likely be limited, and we do not expect significant spillovers from the subprime market to the rest of the economy or to the financial system. The vast majority of mortgages, including even subprime mortgages, continue to perform well. Past gains in house prices have left most homeowners with significant amounts of home equity, and growth in jobs and incomes should help keep the financial obligations of most households manageable."
--- Fight fire, with fire ? Los Alamos, NM got lucky with a best guess method. Hoping QE's to the Nth power may be as fortunate.
May, 2000
May, 2011
--- Free market capitalism. Ah, words that are uttered by some on the great television tube and in print. There are some folks who do reside in free market capitalism. Those being the reported 30 million nomadic peoples of the planet and those who are in, or moving to the underground/barter economic systems in developed countries. The reminder of peoples are moved and stroked by sometimes perverted and corrupt monetary and political methods.
--- Low interest rate environment. We know the low interest rate environment is face slapping the many who previously relied upon the world of CD's and related money markets to generate some extra income. The side effects, not unlike the medication commercials on tv are too numerous to mention. A few areas of the negative side are: The aforementioned CD/money market downside. Pension funds and insurance companies that have to alter their plans going forward; and moving to the "riskier side" with investments (hedge funds, private equity, etc.) One side effect is that many long standing policies/insurance companies that provided long term health care plans are no longer offering such policies, either to companies for employees or to private citizens, as investment returns can no longer match the growth rate of health care. Hot money moving into whatever, many times being commodities and resulting price increases; whether the price increase should really be driven with pure and natural demand. Two side effects of this are higher prices for the consumer and perhaps lower earnings for companies who at least trail with price increases; and if they do not, their profit margins suffer.
The end results of low interest rates, may be the opposite of any implied benefit.
No, part of this is not a Mr. Bernanke bash. In theory, he fully expects this grand money experiment to have a happy ending; in order, that history may judge him in a favorable position.
And you are correct, you did not volunteer for this experiment either.
Our house wishes all well going forward with the investment pursuit.
I am finished.
Regards,
Catch

Hi OJ,
This may be a bit of a tangent note about the "what is competitive".
I must note that I do not have fact or data evidence to support anything.
Greece and/or other Euro countries have certain skill and engineering sets. I recall that Spain does piece work for Boeing, and Italy has a decent industrial base. France has been building autos for years; let alone nuclear units and safe high speed trains.
Obviously, the list is probably very long if one were to dig into a formal study.
However, as the $Euro is the common money of that region (countries/states); not unlike the $U.S. here (states), I will make an observation, that to me; has some linkage.
For Europe and the auto industry. Germany, France, Spain and Italy all have unions for various auto industry functions. I don't know (no facts), but will presume the wage scales are the highest in Germany; and add the blends of benefits, the total work cost/wage package suits the prevailing wage of a given country.
The same now applies to the U.S. U.A.W. union jobs in some states for the auto industry and not in other states. The exodus of auto manufacturing started many years ago with some U.S. work moving into southern states. European auto companies also made the same moves. Michigan and other union auto manufacturing states did not obtain this new work. So, the work; although not all union as perhaps in Europe did seek a wage scale deemed suitable by a company.
A big hmmmmm....eh?
The cost of labor is the easiest to measure.
A final nail in the shift of the cost of labor, at least in North America; was the passage of NAFTA, then GATT and tie into this the formation of the WTO. The time frames of these massive global trade acts began the end of the end of manufacturing as it had been known in this country for 100 years.
Relative to auto production; many component and final build centers went to Mexico. Throw in the technology and cheap labor from other countries and wham-o.
And don't ask about WTO, cause it is all a secret court system.
These battles exist today in MI, as well as in this country; let alone the Euro areas, too. I will presume the existing infrastructure that was available could have suited an auto company moving to MI, but I must consider the cost of labor was the biggest part of the equation to not locate in this state.
Technology places another final nail into the cost of a product, too.
The U.A.W. finally came around to a two tier wage scale, and I suspect this saved some work in MI.
Lastly, a few weeks ago I noted that I may purchase a Chrysler or Dodge mini-van built not too far away, in Canada. The name plate and world headquarters is located away and outside of Detroit, the company is owned by Fiat of Italy and many components for final assembly may come from 20 different other companies around the globe.
This is about as competitive as it becomes, eh?
I suppose the true measure is always going to be to the bottom line of a given company; and the workers are to some of the money counters, just a needed and measured piece of the total money pie.
I don't know that I really said much related to your original post; as I am a bit on the sleepy side of life tonight. Perhaps a few pieces were worthy.
Away to the pillow I must be.
Take care,
Catch

Hi Catch,
I have some comments that I will make and in making them perhaps it will provide some insight into my thinking and my practice that will provide some answers to the questions you raise without a direct response to any of them.
First, I believe every investor needs to establish their tolerance for risk along with setting some goals they wish to achieve through investing. Their portfolio needs to be tailored along these lines. For me, I am willing to invest in assets of the moderate risk type that offer income generation stream and also provide for the opportunity of some capital appreciation over time knowing in some periods there may be some negative appreciation along the way (decline in price).
Second, I believe what one pays for securities has a great deal of bearing in making money. Indeed price is important. I follow the practice I learned from my late father. When equities are towards their 52 week low most likely they have become over sold from fear and good buying opportunities can be found. Dad had a strong will and would not buy unless he felt he was receiving good value and his portfolio was built over time … not over just over a few years. He would not chase an up trending market. If he had not already positioned for an anticipated rebound he sat it out. To him, this was investing spreading his activity out over years. In trading there is the desire and rush to get rich quickly. I read about too many folks trying to trade their way to success. I do not know of any of my friends that have found success through day trading. And, one of them was a very smart person, a nuclear engineer by profession that felt he was bigger than the market through way of his intelligence. Lost most of his 401k money and with that committed suicide. So, the bottom line, don’t over pay for what you buy and buy it with some conviction. I invest mostly for total return … Investments that offer some capital appreciation and pay dividends. An important feature I like to see in a company is that it has a history of raising these dividends to their investors as they grow profit. This is not to say that I don’t have some fixed income as I do and I believe there is a place for it in every portfolio.
Third, I believe a good investor can recognize a market top. A simplified way to do this is once equities are approaching their 52 week highs perhaps they have become over bought from investor enthusiasm. I have observed many of my family members only buy when they feel equities are on a good upward roll and become mystified when they discover they have over paid now that the market has begun its decent. Actually, I use to use my aunt as a sell indicator. When she started to buy, I started to sell because she usually committed her money after equities had had a good strong run and from my thoughts they had become overbought.
Forth, I believe all investors should keep some dry powder, cash, to seize upon opportunity.
Fifth, I believe one should not invest one’s cash reserves held for emergency. They should be held away from your portfolio and not comingled with other cash assets within it. Once you have built an emergency fund … and, only then, should one consider investing. After all, investing entails certain risk. It offers the opportunity for gain as well as the opportunity for loss. And, most of all, I believe one should govern and invest accordingly and within their abilities.
This is how we do it in this house hold. And, in stating the above, I am not saying this is by any means the right way for all.
I wish all … whatever your investing style and skill might be … “Good Investing.”
Skeeter

This is our largest single holding. MDW has had it for 4+ years.
I think straightforward is what they were going for. Stuff that is inherently bad. Tobacco and liquor aren't inherently bad as they can be fine in moderation. Financials aren't all bad. Some people are swindlers and some aren't. I'd say that it's the really bad ones (Madoff) that give the rest of them a bad name. Weapons aren't inherently evil. But in the hands of evil, they certainly are. They are usually good in the hands of policemen. I'm not sure what's bad about nuclear power. I think you are right when you said straightforward.

"Ave Maria." Hail Mary. Let's put aside the long-shot football reference..... About this fund family's flagship fund, The Ave Maria Catholic Values Fund: "The Fund practices morally responsible investing. This process is designed to avoid investments in companies believed to offer products or services or engage in practices that are contrary to core values and teachings of the Roman Catholic Church. The Catholic Advisory Board sets the criteria for screening out companies based on religious principles. In making this determination, the Catholic Advisory Board’s members are guided by the magisterium of the Roman Catholic Church and actively seek the advice and counsel of Catholic clergy. This process would, in general, avoid two major categories of companies: first, those involved in the practice of abortion, and second, companies whose policies are judged to be anti-family, such as companies that distribute pornographic material or whose policies undermine the Sacrament of Marriage."
At least all of this is straightforward, albeit selective. Roman Catholic values, though? Weapons, tobacco, liquor, nuclear, financials that are doing their best to rape the lot of us? Un-green fossil fuels? These are OK? Have these guys read any of the bishops' official statements lately? At least the founders had good intentions, I suppose. And what constitutes a threat to the sacrament of Marriage? (final phrase, above.)......... I looked at AVEDX, though. Its performance looks to be very good indeed. But you can't invest according to that statement above (which I suppose applies only to their flagship fund) and think that you can keep your hands clean.

Hi John and others,
Quote From your link:
interestng article for fix income minded investors
http://advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/pimco_92111.php
"...we place a lot of emphasis on downside hedging. Investors certainly want to participate in market upside, but, in our view, avoiding losses may have greater impact over the long term. Our belief is that no matter how strategies may perform in strong markets, if they do a terrible job during down markets, investors lose."
My Question:
What are some of these downside hedging strategies we all want to be aware of? I have to agree that losses have greater impact over the long term so how do you participate in the upside while hedging the downside?
Here is what I try to use as strategies:
I try to take profits (10-20% gains) from my temporary "alpha" investments and place these profits into a Total Return, Income or core Investments (PTTDX, TGMNX, USAIX, PFPFX). Most recently I took profits (20% gain) from a Precious Metal & Mining fund (USAGX) and established a position with these profits in USAIX (an Income fund)
I try to take profits (10-20% gains) from my "alpha" investments and place these profits into other out of favor Alpha Investments. Here, I reference other sector investments and its position in the business cycle. There are always out of favor sectors. Some can stay out of favor for a very long time so this reinvestment can feel like drag on a portfolio but if you bought it at an out of favor price with profits you have minimized the downside risk as well as diversified your portfolio. Patience is required to reward you with this investment over the longer term.
Here, I try to educate myself and then make some educated guesses as to what is a good value...out of favor. This could be a fund strategy or EFT strategy that is out of favor. FAIRX comes to mind as a fund (2 segments Banking & Real Estate) and PKN (nuclear power) comes to mind as a EFT. Right now FAIRX can be purchased at a 32% discount to its recent price. It may have some more downside but may be rewarded handsomely over the long term. Nuclear power can be invested in through PKN which is down 33% since the Japanese disaster. It also will be out of favor for the short term but may also be a big energy source for China and other countries.
What are you downside strategies?
bee

good morning scott
great question...very thoughtful
I am betting on energy, commodities, water, food for long term
I think EM and US equities could have ways to go but it's difficult to tell what will happen
I probably may buy more
DBA &/or MOO - agriculture ETF
PHO - water
but probably more diverse funds or ETFs
I don't know about nlr nuclear energy though.
oil reits in canada or maybe farmlands in US could be big long term [5-10 yrs] due to massive energy demands
These are very risky and volatile imho
we maybe laughin' our ways to the bank 15s-20s yrs from now
otherwise we may have another blackswan events and we'll both be crying

Thanks John...some thoughts
S&P 500 is undervalued...
Any good dividend paying S&P 500 funds that pay while you wait?
Japanese equities (could be a value trap...needs a growth catalyst):
I own these:
OAKIX= Oakmark International (30% exposure to Japan)
MAJFOX = Matthews Japan
PRJFX = TR Price Japan
Emerging markets(need to watch closely...big runs up and down):
Own these:
TREMX (T Rowe Price Int:Em Euro)...Russia,Turkey E. Europe will benefit...this fund is out of favor right now
VWO = Vanguard Emerging ETF...better choice to VEIEX...no transaction fee with Vanguard Brokerage Acct.
WAEMX = Wasatch Emerging Small Cap...nice alpha recently
PRASX = TR Price New Asia...401k offering
Technology:
Smart Phone has opened the door to the smart grid (Electric power(Energy)+ IT)
VOX = Vanguard Telecom
PRMTX = TR Price Media & Telecom...Long term hold...long term leader
PRGTX = TR Price Gloal Tech
MATFX = Matthews Asian Tech
Energy: (its impact on inflation/recession is a concern)
Alternate Energy has a opportunity to be a opportunity area such as;
(Lithium Ion Tech)
1. Power Storage for Vehicles = Electric Storage, Vehicles, Electric Producers
2. Power Storage for the Grid
(NG Fueling stations)
1. Fleet Vehicles (Trucks, Buses, etc.)
I own:
VDE= Vanguard Energy ETF...VGENX replacement
GASFX = FBR Gas Utility...Dividend paying distribution & Infrastructure Companies
Industrials: (I need suggestions here)
VIS = Vanguard Industrials ETF
Health care:
PRHSX = TR Price Health Sciences
VHT = Vanguard Health Care...ETF replacement for VGHCX
FPHAX = (Fidelity Sel Pharm)
BUFTX (Buffalo:Sci & Tech)...nice combination of Tech and healthcare
Income Choices( Not US teasuries but):
High Yield Corporate
Corporate Bonds
Selective Muni Funds
Corporate) Inflation Protection verses TIPs
Emerging Bonds
Countries that seem worth researching:
Canada
Australia
New Zealand
Mexico
Brazil
Norway,Germany,UK,France
Russia
Turkey
Japan, Korea, Taiwan
Get paid (dividend) while you wait for these to come into favor:
Homebuilders & (REITS)
Small Banks
Large Banks
Nuclear Power
Any thought appreciated,
bee

* trow quaterly commentary
http://individual.troweprice.com/public/Retail/Planning-&-Research/T.-Rowe-Price-Insights/Market-Analysis/Quarterly-Wrap-Ups?placementGUID=em_marketsum&creativeGUID=EMBDHT&v_sd=201104
* cotton remains good long term
http://seekingalpha.com/article/262615-cotton-remains-good-long-term
http://moneymorning.com/2011/04/08/second-quarter-forecast-three-predictions-three-ways-to-profit/
* coals & nuclear - where do they meet?
http://resourceinvestingnews.com/15059-coal-and-nuclear-where-do-they-meet.html#
* US Muni-Bond Market Sees Little Harm If Government Shuts Down
http://www.nasdaq.com/aspx/stock-market-news-story.aspx?storyid=201104081337dowjonesdjonline000505&title=us-muni-bond-market-sees-little-harm-if-government-shuts-down
******** great read for Muni investors
http://westvirginia.watchdog.org/2703/watchblog-uncertainty-is-what-makes-muni-bond-buyers-bonkers/
* Muni bond summary - convergentwealth
http://www.convergentwealth.com/uploads/image/layout/Municipal Bond Summary (April%202011)1.pdf
* Chuck Jaffe: Timing the market by accident can hurt
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/2014703711_jaffe10.html
* floating rate funds post strong returns but
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-floating-rate-funds-20110410,0,318571.story
* High Hopes for First-Quarter Earnings Reports
http://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory?id=13342009
* EMs first quater report - EM funds take a back seat
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-emerging-markets-20110410,0,5812207,full.story
* To make something out of your portfolio, do nothinghttp://www.fredericksburg.com/News/FLS/2011/042011/04102011/618748
http://seekingalpha.com/article/262727-eaton-vance-s-global-dividend-etf-ripe-for-a-raise
* These MFs keep tax man away
http://www.thestreet.com/story/11077159/1/these-mutual-funds-keep-tax-man-away.html?cm_ven=GOOGLEN#
* hidden risks in TDFs
http://www.smartmoney.com/investing/mutual-funds/hidden-risks-in-target-funds-1302533050719/
* 5 best MFs for first quater
http://money.msn.com/business-news/article.aspx?feed=IVPL&date=20110404&id=13270597
http://www.etftrends.com/2011/04/junk-bond-etfs-shrug-off-setback/

As we often do, Rono and I agree on a number of options here. We use U.S. Global World Precious MInerals (UNWPX - we use UNWIX) and a smattering of First Eagle Gold (SGGDX) for mining stock exposure as well as some bullion. For gold and silver bullion, we use Central Fund of Canada (CEF - closed-end fund). It is taxed like a mutual fund, unlike GLD or MVG, which are taxed as collectibles and better used in retirement accounts. And Permanent Portfolio is in almost every client portfolio.
Other options include U.S. Global Resources (PSPFX - we use PIPFX), which owns all kinds of mineral plays. If you are looking into non-coal, oil, and nuclear energy, Market Vectors Global Alternative Energy (GEX) would be worth a look. We use it as a part of our green and socially responsible allocations.

HI lisa;
I think you may consider couple of funds/etfs to hold all these vehicles [silver/gold/palladium] you've mentioned
we do have pspfx - us global resources, prpfx - permanent portfolio has gold/silver/US-T, as well as gld - gold etf. you may need to add PALL - palladium ETF
I think these would be reasonable and give you adequate performances [these comprise 10s% of total portfolio]
I also linked a bunch of articles on commodities if you are interested [see the previous post or the recent posts]
I also have a little of MOO & DBA - agricultures ETFs, & EVEP EV energy part - Energy reits...
I don't have much palladium nor nuclear - NLR [these are the few that I am missing] but these are very volatile and hard to play but could be worth the risks due to high energy demands.
http://portfolios.morningstar.com/fund/holdings?t=PALL