Outside 2020, did the bearish reading ever go this high? Only if you recall off hand.

@AndyJ
Yes, after the melt in September, 2008 into December; in particular for us, is that junk bond funds had taken a bit hit. In the darkest days in the winter of 2008 and into March of 2009 time frame, many junk bonds had a yield nearing 20% as the prices had been whacked. Did a lot of bottom fishing with several funds for the yields; and of course, things turned with Fed/Treasury intervention. Then followed the large price gains, and of course; this was the real money maker side.
An interesting period, albeit; sometimes scary period.
Note: I did not access any of the Gundlach info.

What is he recommending to get the 9%? The article is behind a paywall.

Not sure about that article specifically, but in his webcast a week ago, his emphasis was on Treasuries and agency issues delivering bigtime after Fed rate raises are ~ over. For the latter, he said his flagship fund DBLTX was buying beaten-down agencies yielding > 5%.
I'd guess that projecting 9% would have to include capital gains when the Fed's done, (if) the economy has slowed, and investors dive into Ts thinking rates have peaked.
As I mentioned in another thread, it's worth recalling that his old TCW fund and the then-new DBLTX made a mint for investors after 2008.
So did Pimco Income, by the way. It'll be interesting to see what Pimco's saying about the opportunities they see in the near future.

I've done that and then transferred the shares to a brokerage for convenience. I have seen soft closes where the fund says that shares purchased directly in a new account cannot be transferred for some period of time. But even then, the time limit does expire.
OTOH, Janus makes its cheaper D shares available only through direct investment. That's a little different from the situation described above. The shares weren't closed at intermediaries - they were never offered through those channels.

Only Class D Shares (the “Shares”) are offered by this Prospectus. The Shares are offered directly through the Janus Henderson funds to eligible investors by calling 1-800-525-3713 or at janushenderson.com/individual. The Shares are not offered through financial intermediaries.

Janus Value Funds Prospectus
For several years, Janus only allowed legacy investors - those who already had a direct account with Janus - to invest in class D shares. A couple of years ago it reopened direct investing to new customers. An interesting example of a fund family where you might want to invest directly (for lower cost) but couldn't.
https://ir.janushenderson.com/news-events/press-releases/news-details/2020/Janus-Henderson-Investors-to-Reopen-U.S.-Direct-Business-Channel-to-New-Investors/default.aspx

JNK Etf hy-bonds or bonds etf fbnd appears with very attractive prices.
Personally I think UST could be too high and has records gains past 10 month/prices maybe too high...... If long time horizontal maybe jnk bonds could be little better

I continue to own FPA Queens Road Small Cap Value (formerly FPA Capital Fund) and Crescent Funds since the 90s. I did have a problem with my account regarding a returned statement since it was misdelivered and returned to sender so my account was locked until I could resolve the matter. CSR was helpful in resolving the matter.
You need to make sure you access your online account fairly routinely; otherwise, your account will be locked.

Isn't ironic that many funds are having negative years and many may have capital gain distribution (dividends are not avoidable for taxation).

Here’s a very thorough discussion of BAMBX from last November:
https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/58920/blackrock-systematic-multi-strategy-fund-bambx
In it fred495 provided a direct link to LB’s Barron’s piece. It works whether you are a subscriber or not. I appreciated that. Reading Barron’s via an Amazon Kindle subscription does not allow me to access Barron’s website directly. So links to past articles don’t get me in the door. Fred’s link did work, however.
Good article. The managers appear competent at what they do. They are bent on preserving capital - a worthy goal. What I’m trying to determine is the fund’s most recent weighting in long equity positions. Certainly behaves a lot more like a fixed income fund than a balanced, allocation or LS sort.
Addendum
Thanks Yogi & Lewis for your input. After more research I intend to keep BAMBX. It represents a small portion (around 15%) of a broader 45% allocation to Alternatives. It’s also the most conservative holding in that mix. To be down only 4-5% in a year when many intermediate bond funds have lost 10% or more is a tribute to the fund. It has dawned on me that there are other avenues I can pursue to ramp up risk exposure which involve buying or selling stocks or ETFs rather than mutual funds. I’m learning after a year with Fido that, when possible, it’s better not to make changes in NTF fund holdings as their 60-day holding period can come back to “bite” you at a later date.
Regards

Friday was a strange triple-witching (options) day. Markets were down more intraday but some sectors recovered by the close. Cyclicals and SCs remained under pressure, and of course, transportation were the worst (blame FDX).
My watch list of moderate-allocation funds ranged from -0.89% (DODBX) to -0.28% (BALFX), with MA/capital-appreciation PRWCX -0.73%. OK, so on the worse side but not unusual. FXAIX and QQQ are not good comparisons.
However, it was a BAD WEEK.

Curious...do you think the technicals would indicate something like $95B coming off the CBs balance sheets and the impact on stonks, rate hikes and the impact of policy errors contributing to inflation continuning on and on....why do many think the fed will pivot anytime soon with inflation still running so hot (and even hotter in reality than what the gov't says it is)....that 4% 1year Tbill looks purdy good to me right now...Baseball Fan

@Baseball_Fan - I’m trying to cut through your rambling macro analysis. Would you please address some of the following questions? Best Wishes
“Curious … Do you think the technicals … ”
What technicals? Not everyone uses technical analysis. Please identify which “technicals” you watch and base your investment decisions on? I’ve tried to help out by listing a few common technical indicators below:
- Moving Averages
- Moving Average Convergence and Divergence
- Relative Strength Indicator (RSI)
- Bollinger Bands
- Volume
- Exponential Moving Average
- Money Flow Index
“ … would indicate something like $95B coming off the CBs balance sheets”
Over what period of time? Do you have a source verifying this will be completed within a definite time period? It took over a decade for the Federal Reserve to amass their bond holdings, beginning with the near depression that threatened the economy between 2007 and 2009.
“and the impact on stonks” (sic?)
Not all stocks are the same. Financials? Commodities? Growth? Domestic or foreign? Also omitted here is any reference to time frame. Do you mean by the end or 2022 or are your concerns related to further out (5-10 years)?
“rate hikes”
Why would you consider rate hikes to be bad for equities? Financials tend to do very well when longer term rates rise. It is true that the most speculative areas tend to suffer as the cost of borrowing increases. (However, many are already down 50-70% this year.) But it’s not as cut & dry as you would have us believe. Rates have been extremely low for many years now. Bound to rise some day. Yet you and many others have over that time invested in equities for the long term - even knowing rates would someday rise. What changed?
“the impact of policy errors”
That’s a sweeping assertion based it seems on conjecture. Please explain why that risk is higher now than in March 2020 (the covid related financial crisis) or March 2009 (the beginning of the last bull market). Policy errors can occur at any point in time. So can other negative factors like war, political chaos, natural disaster. As investors in companies we’re accustomed to accepting those risks.
“inflation continuing on and on … “
Says who? Do you have some psychic in mind who can forecast inflation years out?
“(Will) the fed pivot any time soon … ?”
What particular “pivot” are you referencing? After you explain that, please explain why an equity investor should base long term decisions on this ill defined hypothetical concept.
“inflation still running so hot”
That’s redundant as you referenced it above. Here you seem to prophesy inflation will remain “so hot” ? … There’s no definitive way I know of to confirm / predict the level of inflation 1, 2 or 3 years out. Shall we base our long term equity investment decisions on such speculation?
“even hotter in reality than what the gov’t says it is …”
Isn’t this something folks have long ragged about on this forum and elsewhere? There’s been numerous threads over the years examining the various inflation measures (there are several). So, you’re entitled to your prejudice on that point. But why do you find the discrepancy between your own numbers and what the Federal Bureau of Statistics determines to be of greater importance today than it was 3 years ago or 10 years ago?
“that 4% 1 year TBill looks puffy good to me right now”
Good. Glad you find TBills a good investment for your needs. Bear in mind that’s for just 1 year. Equity investors by nature are investing for much longer periods. Contemplate that if you harvest your 4% TBill a year from now, you might find that stocks in general have appreciated more than 4%. I don’t think it’s at all unreasonable to think they might. (Some I own move 4% in a single day.) In such case, you will have lost ground and possibly face buying in to equities than at a net loss. If inflation is running as “hot” as you think, why are you comfortable with just 4%?

Currently using USFR for a partial cash position. 2.68%-30 day sec yield. very low duration of 0.02. Will be able to catch rising rates with virtually no decrease in price which will occur with longer dated treasuries. Since purchase earlier in week a very small increase in price has occurred so there is a chance of a small capital gain in addition to the yield.

@yogibearbull : Are you telling me that Chuck has more that a few loose ends to tie up from TD A. ? I must have missed USAA brokerage dealings. when did that happen?
Thanks, Derf

USAA is going back to basics - financial services for military families and veterans.
It sold its fund operations to Victory Capital and brokerage operations to Schwab.

Sometimes it pays to be lucky. I've been picking up shares of Store Capital (STOR) by bits and pieces even after Berkshire disposed of their large stake a few weeks ago. Today STOR popped up 20%+ on a buyout offer from a private equity firm. I'll take it.

@Baseball_Fan

without getting into a political debate...would you agree that policy could also drive inflation regardless of interest rates...i.e, increasing SNAP food program by 25% last October

As soon as you make that statement, you've entered a political debate. If it "could also drive inflation," I don't care because I think feeding hungry people who don't have enough to eat is more important that whether I pay a little more for something I--and I know you too because you're on this board--can afford. But the optimal word in your statement is "could." It could drive inflation, but there are a thousand other things that "could" drive inflation, such as the fact we have very low unemployment and labor finally has leverage to negotiate wages, such as the fact that corporations see this period as an opportunity to gouge customers and jack up prices while blaming the government for the problem, such as the fact that there are still all sorts of Covid supply chain logjams and a proxy war with Russia in Ukraine that is causing fuel prices to rise. Not to mention the fact that the Fed and Treasury bailed out the stock and bond markets in 2020 with massive stimulus to help rich folks recover from their losses, but also increased the money supply significantly. Not to mention the $953 billion Paycheck Protection Program passed in 2020 by the previous administration to bail businesses out. It's a complex topic and blaming the weakest and poorest members of society for needing food stamps as the primary driver of inflation is absolutely a political statement.
As for the amount of debt out there, it is a risk, but the risk could just as easily be deflationary as inflationary. Namely, defaults occur. Prior to 2008 there was a tremendous amount of debt outstanding in multiple sectors of the economy. A few defaults changed the scenario pretty quickly. As rates rise, companies and businesses and individuals that are overextended start having problems. There is also the prospect that the government could raise taxes to pay down the debt on the federal level. That would be deflationary, too, and fine depending on how taxes are raised and on whom:

I received a corrected Schwab 1099 today reporting an increase of $0.34 in Short-Term Realized Capital Gains-a transactional CG as referenced by yogibearbull, split between VCFAX and TRBUX . Since the total is less than $1.00, I'm going to ignore this 1099 malarkey ! Currently hold neither fund.

We are approaching September 6 levels. That was just a week+ ago.
1-day decline is the worst since mid-2020.
It was 95% down-volume day.
See major indexes since 1/3/22, https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=$SPX&compare=$COMPQ,$INDU,$TRAN,IWM&id=p13443845664

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1199046/000158064222004690/lhatact497supp.htm
(the fund has no symbol yet)
LHA TACTICAL BETA VARIABLE SERIES FUND
Supplement to the Prospectus
and Statement of Additional Information
dated
May 1, 2022
Supplement dated September 13, 2022
The Board of Trustees has determined that it is in the best interest of shareholders to liquidate the LHA Tactical Beta Variable Series Fund (the “Fund”).
As of the date of this supplement, the Fund is no longer accepting purchase orders for its shares and it will close effective October 7, 2022 (the “Closing Date”). Shareholders who are insurance company separate accounts or qualified plans may redeem Fund shares at any time prior to the Closing Date. Individual investors may redeem Fund shares through their variable annuity or variable life insurance contract. Procedures for redeeming an account, including reinvested distributions, are contained in the section “How to Redeem Shares” of the Fund’s Prospectus. Any shareholders that have not redeemed their shares of the Fund prior to the Closing Date will have their shares automatically redeemed as of that date, with proceeds being sent to the address of record.
Effective immediately, the Fund is no longer intends to pursue its investment objective. All holdings in the Fund’s portfolio are held in cash. Any capital gains will be distributed as soon as practicable to shareholders and reinvested in additional Fund shares, unless you have requested payment in cash.
* * * * * *
This supplement and the Prospectus provide the information a prospective investor should know about the Fund and should be retained for future reference. The Prospectus and a Statement of Additional Information dated May 1, 2022 have been filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission and are incorporated herein by reference. You may obtain the Prospectus or Statement of Additional Information without charge by calling the Fund at 1-833-351-2991 or visiting www.lhafunds.com.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/793769/000119312522242476/d384549d497.htm
497 1 d384549d497.htm HARBOR FUND - SAI SUPPLEMENT
 
111 South Wacker Drive, 34th Floor
Chicago, IL 60606-4302
harborcapital.com
Supplement to Statement of Additional Information dated March 1, 2022
September 12, 2022
Harbor Funds’ Board of Trustees has determined to liquidate and dissolve Harbor Emerging Markets Equity Fund and Harbor Money Market Fund (each, a “Fund”). The liquidation of each Fund is expected to occur on December 9, 2022 (the “Liquidation Date”). The liquidation proceeds will be distributed to any remaining shareholders of the Funds on the Liquidation Date.
Shareholders may exchange shares of a Fund for another Harbor fund, or redeem shares out of a Fund, in accordance with Harbor’s exchange and redemption policies as set forth in the Funds’ prospectus, until the Liquidation Date.
In order to ready the Funds for liquidation, each Fund’s portfolio of investments will be transitioned prior to the planned Liquidation Date to one that consists of all or substantially all cash, cash equivalents and debt securities with remaining maturities of less than one year. As a result, shareholders should no longer expect that each Fund will seek to achieve its investment objective as stated in the Funds’ prospectus.
Because the Fund will be liquidating, Harbor Emerging Markets Equity Fund is now closed to new investors. Harbor Money Market Fund was closed to new investors after the close of business on Friday, May 15, 2020 and will remain closed. The Funds will no longer accept additional investments from existing shareholders beginning on November 25, 2022. As of the Liquidation Date, the checkwriting privilege for shareholders in Harbor Money Market Fund will terminate. Effective immediately, check books will no longer be issued. Any checks written prior to the date of this supplement will be honored. Any checks written after the date of this supplement will be payable until the Liquidation Date.

Doesn't seem like there's much of a case for that fund right now: distribution yield is right at 2%, with capital risk and bonds still under pressure, when you can get that or more in a money market fund (e.g., FZDXX at 2.21%) or T-bill held to maturity, without capital risk (just bought a 13-wk. bill at 2.965%).

Price website shows Top 10 monthly. I suppose after admitting that he was frustrated and not happy with GE, he decided to sell - it is gone from Top 10 but he may be holding a small position. Here is the monthly status of GE (scroll to Holdings/Top 10 Holdings),
https://www.troweprice.com/financial-intermediary/us/en/investments/mutual-funds/us-products/capital-appreciation-fund.html
Date, %, #
12/31/21, 4.41%, 4
1/31/22, 4.59%, 4
2/28/22, 4.67%, 3
3/31/22, 3.79%, 3
4/30/22, 3.22%, 2
5/31/22, 3.38%, 3
6/30/22, 3.05%, 4
7/31/22, 3.01%, 4
8/31/22, Gone from Top 10