You may want to look into CBLDX, DHEAX, ICMUX, and RCTIX.

I am pretty familiar with these funds. DHEAX use to be one of my major bond oef holdings before the 2020 crash. Thanks for the recommendations.

”I'm no trader, but a quick look at the GRZZX 5-year chart shows a steady decline from about $11.00 in 9/2020 to about $5.00 now. Maybe just to make the worth of the fund look a little better?”

That’s pretty much what posters on this thread say (cosmetics).
A more rational idea (further down in the discussion) ) also sounds possible: ”Commission and margin rules at many banks have a share price lower threshold value, below which margin requirements are far stricter and commissions are higher. Doing a reverse split puts them back above this threshold …Option markets tend to dry up when stocks go below $3 or so ”
If Leuthhold were to come out with an etf version of Grizzly I might be inclined to own a few shares. Using an OEF for the purpose of hedging really doesn’t make a lot of sense to me. I think Leuthold waives short term / frequent trading fees & restrictions on this one. But very likely your brokerage wouldn’t.

I'm no trader, but a quick look at the GRZZX 5-year chart shows a steady decline from about $11.00 in 9/2020 to about $5.00 now. Maybe just to make the worth of the fund look a little better?

History is interesting.
Bogle was rushing to launch no-load Vanguard in 1974/75 because he was afraid that Capital Group/AF may beat him to that.
But Capital Group did nothing of the sort. In fact, it became the class champion - tapping all channel sources for its funds. So, RERFX has 19 classes! Then, there are ETFs and separate accounts.

The three founders of Primecap Management Company—Howard Schow,
Theo Kolokotrones, and Mitch Milias—were senior portfolio managers at Capital Group.
Primecap Management implements an investment approach similar to Capital Group
where multiple portfolio managers independently select securities for a mutual fund.
The firm focuses on research and portfolio management with little regard to sales and marketing.
Primecap Management is the advisor for three Vanguard mutual funds
and they also offer three funds under the Primecap Odyssey brand.

Capital Group did very well for us in our accumulation phase. I always did prefer their advisory group approach, split between analysts and managers. Not "brilliant", but competent and steady.

Right there with you @rforno
"... take that as you will. For me, I prefer investment managers that tend to stay in the background. My go-to is Capital Group (where I'm deeply invested across accounts) but in terms of quiet, steady-eddie operations Wellington, D&C, etc are right up there as well."

President Donald J. Trump’s firing of the commissioner of labor statistics ... for announcing that job growth has slowed dramatically
It turns out that he was right. After the firing Trump got what he wanted - another June job growth revision. The number of jobs did not grow slowly in June after all.
For the first time since, well, since the last full month Trump 45 was in the Oval Office (December 2020), the number of jobs shrank.

Per BBG:

Wellington Management Co. is a rarity in the investment world: a fund manager with more than $1 trillion of assets and almost zero brand recognition.
Not for long.
The staid, nearly century-old firm that mostly serves vanilla equity and bond strategies to buttoned-up institutions like pensions and endowments is now moving aggressively into private markets and hedge funds. Wellington is spending big to hire from bulge-bracket banks and alternative investment firms, adding dozens of private markets professionals to build a unit of about 40 people.
It’s also hustling to build a brand with retail investors, many of whom have never heard of the $1.3 trillion firm. It’s a big change for a money manager that for decades didn’t care about what the world thought, as long as its big institutional clients were happy.
Among its recent hires, Wellington recruited a head of private investments capital formation from Goldman Sachs Group Inc., poached a team from Pacific Investment Management Co. to expand in private credit and hired Christina Kopec Rooney from Goldman’s asset management arm to head its nascent push into the US wealth market. It even partnered with private equity giant Blackstone Inc. and Vanguard Group to launch hybrid funds for retail investors.
In perhaps its most radical shift, Wellington – housed across 19 floors in Boston’s Atlantic Wharf – has done the previously unthinkable: It hired a public relations team.

< - >
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-05/wellington-management-seeks-the-spotlight-after-100-years-of-shunning-it?srnd=homepage-americas
... take that as you will. For me, I prefer investment managers that tend to stay in the background. My go-to is Capital Group (where I'm deeply invested across accounts) but in terms of quiet, steady-eddie operations Wellington, D&C, etc are right up there as well.

As a retired investor, "I dislike volatility!", to quote keppelbay. Especially in the current uncertain market and political environment, preserving capital is more important to me than chasing returns on capital. I prefer to err on the side of caution since I don't need a lot more money, and all my expenses are covered by generous pensions and Social Security.
Currently, my conservative portfolio allocation is as follows:
- 45% Bond OEFs (APDPX, DHEAX, PYLD and RCTIX)
- 30% CDs
- 25% Alternative OEFs (QDSNX and QLENX)
...
P.S. Based on Portfolio Visualizer, and back testing with a start date of July 2023 (inception date of PYLD), my current portfolio would have had an annualized return (CAGR) of 10.5% with a standard deviation of 2%, and a 0.47% correlation to the S&P 500.

July 2023 through Aug 2025 was a calm period. If numbers from that period look too good, they are.
I ran PV with your portfolio, dividing the bond funds equally (11.25% each) and the alts equally (12.5% each). I also prepared a second portfolio, substituting PIMIX for PYLD to get a modestly longer time frame.
From this PV analysis (July 2023 - Aug 2025) you can see that this was a reasonable substitution. Same annual returns, same std deviation, same 0% max drawdown.
When one drops the original portfolio from the input, then PV calculates over the period April 2022 - Aug 2025. This adds a downdraft (April - June 2022) that the shorter period doesn't have. The annualized return drops from 10.9% to 8.8%, while std dev increases from 2.0 to 2.9.
You might consider substituting similar funds with longer lifetimes to get estimated performances over even longer time periods.
Maximizing Sharpe ratio for the original funds (substituting ICSH for CDs) PV says:to use:
APDPX 20.71%
DHEAX 72.72%
QLENX 6.57%
The annualized return is a little less (10.45% vs. 10.96%), but the std dev is cut nearly in half (1.10 vs. 2.01). However, this too is calculated over a very short time period.

Thank you, Mr. Hindsight.

Where is the hindsight?
The above phrase is from another poster on another site that has been wrong for about 15 years now. When he posted about his timing, it was a disaster.
I sold on 2/29/2020 and posted about it on several sites, including this one.
I sold early in 2022, and bought in 11/2022 and posted about it. This is why I made 9+% in 2022.
There is plenty of evidence of my portfolio performance.
Several in my circle of traders all have done it.
It's obvious you can't do it, so your only response is trashing.
People like you are responsible for why I (and other great traders) don't post these anymore.
It doesn't bother or affect us, but posters have been interested for years. Actually, 1 of them joined our group after he paid attention for years and started using it.
Basically, you score a giggle, but others lose.

On another investment forum, a thread has recently been started to share portfolio allocation thoughts & strategies for discussion/comparison. I thought it would perhaps be a worthwhile exercise and/or learning experience to have a similar thread on this topic on this forum. Here was my contribution:
As a retired investor, "I dislike volatility!", to quote keppelbay. Especially in the current uncertain market and political environment, preserving capital is more important to me than chasing returns on capital. I prefer to err on the side of caution since I don't need a lot more money, and all my expenses are covered by generous pensions and Social Security.
Currently, my conservative portfolio allocation is as follows:
- 45% Bond OEFs (APDPX, DHEAX, PYLD and RCTIX)
- 30% CDs
- 25% Alternative OEFs (QDSNX and QLENX)
Once the CDs mature next year, I may shift my portfolio allocation to the following:
- 60% Bond OEFs (will probably add BINC and/or ESIIX)
- 25% Alternative OEFs (no change)
- 15% Allocation OEFs (probably split between PMAIX and PRCFX)
Hopefully, this will be a "sleep well portfolio" by keeping the standard deviations of the allocation and the alternative OEFs below 10%, and the bond OEFs below 5%. Of course, nothing is set in stone. I will always be dancing near the exit if the circumstances warrant it.
Good luck.
P.S. Based on Portfolio Visualizer, and back testing with a start date of July 2023 (inception date of PYLD), my current portfolio would have had an annualized return (CAGR) of 10.5% with a standard deviation of 2%, and a 0.47% correlation to the S&P 500.

Howdy folks,
I think you were trolling me with this thread.
I have been recommending a 3-7% stake in precious metals in everyone's portfolios for decades. More than that is speculation, which is fine, but it can be very dicey. The game is so very rigged, it's tough to win.
There are many ways to take position. Safest is physical bullion. Geez, a roll of American Gold Eagles is the size of quarter and 2" tall. Hide it in the Oatmeal. It's worth about $75K. Get a 100 oz bar of silver, paint it black and use it as a door stop. About $4500. You can buy ETFs that invest in bullion but you pay 28% in gains. Ouch. You can hedge this with some weird products or simply stash them in a deferred or exempt account. You can buy the mining stocks. My only homerun was in the Big Bonanza that took place in in 2002-2011 period. I bought Silver Wheaton in the $2-3 range and it went to $43. There is nothing quite so exhilarating as playing the penny silver miners. Pure nose bleed.
You don't even have to simply play the PMs and can take a broad based stance in commodities with any number of funds and/or ETF. Again, determine if they're in mining stocks or the actual commodities. Even though they more or less mirror each others performance, they are played in different markets that act different ways. I've been collecting coins for 70 years and I don't have a clue.
If you're thinking about establishing a new position in the metals, I'd really suggest a Dollar Cost Averaging tactic. If you're a momentum investor, you might consider scaling in.
Peace,
And so it goes,
rono

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1545440/000158064225005663/kempner497.htm
97 1 kempner497.htm 497
September 2, 2025
ULTIMUS MANAGERS TRUST
Kempner Multi-Cap Deep Value Fund
Institutional Class (FIKDX)
Investor Class (FAKDX)
Supplement to the Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information (“SAI”),
each dated September 28, 2024
Assignment of Investment Advisory Agreement and Expense Limitation Agreement
Effective August 9, 2025, upon the passing of Harris L. (“Shrub”) Kempner, Jr., President and owner of Kempner Capital Management, Inc. (the “Adviser”), the investment adviser to the Kempner Multi-Cap Deep Value Fund (the “Fund”), an assignment of the Investment Advisory Agreement between Ultimus Managers Trust (the “Trust”), on behalf of the Fund, and the Adviser occurred, resulting in the automatic termination of both the Investment Advisory Agreement and the Expense Limitation Agreement between the Trust, on behalf of the Fund, and the Adviser.
All references to Mr. Kempner with respect to the Fund are hereby removed from the Fund’s Prospectus and SAI. M. Shawn Gault remains as portfolio manager of the Fund.
Interim Investment Advisory Agreement and Interim Expense Limitation Agreement
An interim investment advisory agreement between the Trust, on behalf of the Fund, and the Adviser (the “Interim Advisory Agreement”), with substantially the same terms as the existing investment advisory agreement with the Adviser (the “Prior Advisory Agreement”), except for the start and end date of the agreement as required under the Investment Company Act of 1940, as amended (the “1940 Act”) and rules thereunder, has been approved by the Trust’s Board of Trustees (the “Board”) at a meeting held on August 21, 2025 (the “Meeting”) and became effective as of August 10, 2025.
Under the Interim Advisory Agreement, the Adviser provides the same advisory services to the Fund on the same terms provided under the Prior Advisory Agreement. There are no changes to the advisory fees payable by the Fund to the Adviser under the Interim Advisory Agreement.
In addition, at the Meeting, the Board approved an interim expense limitation agreement (the “Interim Expense Limitation Agreement”), between the Trust, on behalf of the Fund, and the Adviser because the prior expense limitation agreement for the Fund (the “Prior Expense Limitation Agreement”) terminated upon the termination of the Prior Advisory Agreement. The terms of the Interim Expense Limitation Agreement are substantially similar to those of the Prior Expense Limitation Agreement except for the start and end date of the agreement. The expense limitation for each share class of the Fund is identical to the respective expense limitation under the Prior Expense Limitation Agreement. The Interim Expense Limitation Agreement became effective as of August 10, 2025.
Liquidation of the Fund
Effective immediately, the Fund has terminated the public offering of its shares and will discontinue its operations effective October 15, 2025. Shares of the Fund are no longer available for purchase and, at the close of business on October 15, 2025, all outstanding shares of the Fund will be redeemed at net asset value (the “Liquidation”).
1
At the meeting, the Board, in consultation with the Adviser, approved the discontinuation of the Fund’s operations based on, among other factors, the Adviser’s belief that it would be in the best interests of the Fund and its shareholders to discontinue the Fund’s operations. Through the date of the Liquidation, the Adviser will continue to waive investment advisory fees and reimburse expenses of the Fund, if necessary, in order to maintain the Fund at its current expense limits, as specified in the Fund’s current Prospectus.
In connection with the Liquidation, the Board directed that: (i) all of the Fund’s portfolio securities be liquidated in an orderly manner not later than October 15, 2025; and (ii) all outstanding shareholder accounts on October 15, 2025 be closed and the proceeds of each account, less any required withholding, be sent to the shareholder’s address of record or to such other address as directed by the shareholder, including special instructions that may be needed for Individual Retirement Accounts (“IRAs”) and qualified pension and profit sharing accounts. As a result of the Liquidation, the Fund’s portfolio holdings will be reduced to cash or cash equivalents. Accordingly, going forward, shareholders should not expect the Fund to achieve its stated investment objective. The Adviser will bear all of the expenses of the liquidation with the exception of brokerage costs associated with the orderly transition of the Fund’s portfolio holdings to cash and cash equivalents.
Shareholders may redeem all or a portion of their shares of the Fund on any business day prior to the Liquidation as specified in the Fund’s Prospectus.
The Liquidation will be considered for tax purposes a sale of Fund shares by shareholders, and shareholders should consult with their own tax advisors to ensure its proper treatment on their income tax returns. In addition, shareholders invested through an IRA or other tax-deferred account should consult the rules regarding the reinvestment of these assets. In order to avoid a potential tax issue, shareholders generally have 60 days from the date that proceeds are received to re-invest or “rollover” the proceeds into another IRA or qualified retirement account; otherwise, the proceeds may be required to be included in the shareholder’s taxable income for the current tax year.
For more information, or to obtain a copy of the Fund’s Prospectus or SAI free of charge, please contact the Fund at 1-800-665-9778.
Investors should retain this supplement for future reference.

no, i accumulated ~2% (2016-2018) and let the etf run (except trimmed some individual miners which have kept running !). this is because the data seems fuzzy where to stop, but concern not needed below 10% allocation.
plus, the gains taxes. was not taking much more than i can offset losses elsewhere.

OJ, not to worry, there have been many naysayers in the last 15 years.
In this (link) you can find several trades I made in crucial markets.
In fact, I posted my sale on 2/29/2020 on this site.
https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/55299/bond-mutual-funds-analysis-act-2/p2
LarryB, My trades were never perfect; I never claimed they were. When I'm wrong, I'm out of the market for up to a week. When I'm right, I was out for several weeks (in 2018, 2020, 2025) to 10 months in 2022. I can't do it with a lot of money, think above 10-20 million; after all, I trade in/out mutual funds. There were already times when the mutual company restricted me from trading their funds too often.
I don't need to prove anything anymore. All the real discussions happen now off the boards.
This is a screenshot in early 2020 (https://ibb.co/k2SKDPPg)
This is a screenshot of 2022 (https://ibb.co/1tKzDR4j)

”The commodity space is complex and the asset class can be volatile.”

Everything from coca beans to nat gas. Generally played using derivatives. Tremendous variation among funds.
Flashback - In March 2020, the price of a barrel of oil temporarily fell below zero dollars.
@LewisBraham authored the piece I linked. Thanks for the reminder.
@Observant1 - PIRMX looks like a good moderate approach. I find that with high-volatility funds it’s hard to hang on for long. So better served with a moderate approach from that standpoint.

In Europe and Asia, where government stakes, golden-shares or board seats are common,
companies are also restricted from acting quickly on labor or old plant shutdowns.
US companies are much quicker in taking labor or plant/capital decisions.
This has contributed to higher US productivity and profitability.
This may change with US Gov involvement in US companies.

The U.S. government may force companies to take or avoid certain actions for political reasons.
As yogi mentioned, productivity/profitability could be negatively impacted.

In Europe and Asia, where government stakes, golden-shares or board seats are common, companies are also restricted from acting quickly on labor or old plant shutdowns.
US companies are much quicker in taking labor or plant/capital decisions. This has contributed to higher US productivity and profitability. This may change with US Gov involvement in US companies.

Some unconventional thoughts on your allocation/drawdown plans, FWIW:
1. If all the money in your (future) RMDs will be taxed at the same rate, and if your RMDs will (along with other income including SS) will be less than your cash flow needs, then there doesn't seem to be much value in managing T-IRA and T-401(k) differently.
Reasoning: if RMDs are more than you need, then it is better to keep them down (and more assets tax-sheltered) by keeping slower growth assets in traditional accounts and faster growth assets in Roths, as you are doing. You don't want to be forced to draw more out of any sheltered account than you need. But this justification vanishes if RMDs are not sufficient for cash flow needs.
By "all RMD money taxed at the same rate" I mean: Suppose that you add up all your other ordinary income (SS, taxable interest, etc.) .and find that you're, say, in the 22% bracket. Then when you add in your RMD, you find that you're still in the same 22% bracket. Not higher. If this is true then it doesn't matter how you split investments between T's and Roths.
Say you've got $100K in your traditional accounts and $78K in your Roths. After tax, they're each worth $78K. Suppose you allocate assets so that your Roth accounts double and your traditional accounts stagnate. Then your Roth will be worth $156K after tax and your traditionals will be worth $78K after tax for a total of $234K after tax.
If you flip the allocations, then the traditional accounts will double to $200K pre-tax, or $156K after tax. The Roth will be sitting at $78K, for a total of $23KK after tax.
The trick is to keep after tax values in mind when allocating investments. Are there any portfolio trackers that can handle this?
2. Since cap gains don't (for the most part) affect what rate your ordinary income is taxed at, you might be better off holding onto your long term positions in taxable accounts (that are pseudo-tax-sheltered by deferring gain recognition) and instead sheltering cash by using it to pay the taxes on Roth conversions.
Suppose you have $22 in cash (taxable) and $100 in a traditional IRA (worth $78 post tax). That's worth a total of $100 after tax. Convert and you've got $100 in a Roth, also worth $100 after tax.
If you convert, then instead of having to pay tax on the cash as it generates income, you've fully sheltered that $22 in the Roth. As for the securities that you could have sold instead of converting, they'll continue to appreciate, tax-deferred, until you recognize the gain.
3. If you're planning on working past RMD age (currently 73), then you can defer RMDs longer in your 401(k) with your current employer. If that's the case, that may militate for keeping higher growth assets in the 401(k). Otherwise, allocation between T-IRA and T-401(k) doesn't seem to matter. Though the choice of investments available to you in your employer plan(s) could tilt the scales one way or the other.
4. Throwing a money wrench into all of this are oddballs like IRMAA and the 3.8% Medicare surtax. And Trump's $6K above-the-line (sort of) extra deduction for seniors in 2025-2028 that is also income-dependent.
In addition, your state may exempt some or all of retirement income from state taxes. Your state may also give other tax breaks that are income dependent (e.g. property tax reductions). And there's no certainty with respect to future tax rates.
I've been doing incremental Roth conversions since 2010 when the income limit on conversions was eliminated. So when I finally get to being subject to RMDs, their size will be closer to what I want to contribute to charities. And by identifying them as QCDs, I won't have to worry much about tax consequences of my RMDs.