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Buy -- Sell -- Ponder -- February 2018

24

Comments

  • Hi @rono
    I'm inclined to feel that a bit more of this "big cash" will flow to executive compensation as the higher ups; based on corporations meeting or exceeded "their goals".
    Hey, I'm trying to recall the "winter chant for Michigan" for no more snow; no unlike the Woodstock "no more rain" chant.
    Take care there, in your part of town.
    Catch
  • Hi Mark,

    Hope you're doing well. You're spot on that there will be a LOT of cash flow to the 4th floor. Nature of the beast, what.

    I'm up here in Spartan country with my heart crying for the survivors and victims that were ignored or denied due process. I believe the two coaches are legal, but the rot in the administration is unbelievable. They've scheduled the No Confidence vote in board for next week by the faculty. I'm betting 75% and wifes is at 85%. Geez, I worked for Engler and Blanchard and they were both terrible. The Board is the problem and have to go.

    Apologies to one and all for my venting,

    and so it goes,

    peace,

    rono
  • edited February 2018
    rono said:

    Hi Mark

    I'm up here in Spartan country with my heart crying for the survivors and victims that were ignored or denied due process. I believe the two coaches are legal, but the rot in the administration is unbelievable. They've scheduled the No Confidence vote in board for next week by the faculty. I'm betting 75% and wifes is at 85%. Geez, I worked for Engler and Blanchard and they were both terrible. The Board is the problem and have to go.

    Well said @Rono.

    What a tragedy in the new interim pres. When I did some grad work at CMU in the early 70s, J.E. was a 20s-something newcomer to the political scene - a state legislator from the Clare area if I recall. Bombastic & with a huge ego that needed feeding, he came down to speak to one of our classes. Still remember how the general consensus in the class was What a clown!

    Nobody took him seriously in those days. A friend likes to remind me - “The cream doesn’t always rise to the top. Sometimes it’s something else that comes up.”
  • bot DGRW, since CAPE is off-limits (!) at ML
  • Seems like XIV and ZIV are about to stop being going concerns, need something else to place my spiff in this or next week. May send it in with my FMIJX, not overly concerned about the weak dollar effects there.
  • Many REIT's are on sale...I picked up an additional slug of O <$50.

    It's nice to pick up a relatively safe 5% dividend.
  • Hi @PRESSmUP
    I've been watching RE, as it has been weak for several months as interest rates ticked up; but most of the common active mutual funds in this space were near 30 for the RSI-14 and a few have touched their 200 day moving average, as of yesterday, Monday.
    I wish you well with 0 .
  • Sold 50% of my bank loan fund today. Not sure this is the time to be taking credit risk. If equities remain under pressure the Fed may be less aggressive in raising rates. Fed funds futures are already pricing in less aggressiveness than they were Friday. There are other areas in Bondville that have my attention.
  • PRESSmUP said:

    Many REITs are on sale

    have you ever played (or held) RWT?

  • edited February 2018
    Market Barometer update. Some of the feed readings changed but the product remained the same with a day ending reading of 151 (fair value)
  • Many REIT's are on sale...I picked up an additional slug of O <$50. </p>
    @PRESSmUP , what is O?
  • edited February 2018
    Hello ...

    Again, I'm thinking that the markets are saying to the FOMC ... Don't do anything stupid!

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-07/with-yellen-out-of-the-picture-get-ready-for-trump-vs-powell

    From memory the Fed's raised rates years back (06-07) to where many could not pay their adjustable rate mortage payments as their payments reset with higher interest rates. The Fed then said that the stock market downturn would be contained to the real estate sector. Howerver, this lead to the Great Recession. And, we all know what took place then. Many lost their homes (and jobs) and the markets crashed.

    For me, the question remains will the Fed kill the goose that lays the golden eggs? I'm thinking they indeed could. And, the markets are sending a message to the FOMC ... Don't do anything stupid!

    So, I guess it is now ... Trump vs Powell ... as the article states.

    For me, I have recently bought some around the edges to round out some positions within my portfolio; but, overall I'm building cash and plan to expand my CD Ladder in the continued and anticipated rising interest rate environment. I plan to center stock market investment activity around my spiffs in the near term.

  • MikeM said:

    Many REIT's are on sale...I picked up an additional slug of O <$50. </p>
    @PRESSmUP , what is O?
    O is Realty Income, a REIT which pays monthly if that's of interest.



  • PRESSmUP said:

    Many REITs are on sale

    have you ever played (or held) RWT?

    No, I'm actually not familiar with RWT. Is this something you hold?
  • I really don't feel like doing anything, so I'm not. Only thinking, should I reduce my PIMIX.

  • >> No, I'm actually not familiar with RWT. Is this something you hold?

    not anymore, used to, a solidly run upscale reit, less shady than many
  • edited February 2018
    ron said:

    I really don't feel like doing anything, so I'm not.

    Ditto - However, my cash allocation has been rising for quite some time now without my doing anything.

    Jumpy markets like this can sometimes signal a top and sometimes a bottom.
  • @davidrmoran Hi David, any particular reason for DGRW rather than VIG?
  • edited February 2018
    Old_Skeet's market barometer closed Wednesday with a reading of 152 which is still in the fair value range on the scale. Should it reach a reading of 155 then the 500 Index will have moved to a borderline undervalue reading based upon the barometer's metrics.

    In checking the futures this morning stocks are currently looking to open up as I write. The US 10 Year presently has a yield of 2.86%. This puts it's yield towards, if not, a 52 week high.

    So, are you buying selling or pondering?

    I recently bought a little to round out one of my stock mutual fund positions (FDSAX). But, for the most part, I am in a cash build mode planning to soon start expand my CD Ladder. Should I engage the market it will, most likely, be through expanding my spiff positions. I'm looking for a barometer reading of 156 range before I open another spiff position. I'm still with my commodities and consumer discretionary spiff positions. I am leaning toward opening a spiff in financials; however, I may wait untill financials catches discretionary and do an exchange between the two should the barometer not reach 156. And, remember stocks usually go soft during the summer months. By that time the US 10 Year should be at 3% or better.
  • @davfor,

    Thank you for bring to our attention of VWINX - the historical plot going back to the 70's. The Fed is planning 3 rate hikes this year, possibly 4 if inflation is getting bad.
  • expatsp said:

    @davidrmoran Hi David, any particular reason for DGRW rather than VIG?

    performance

    was trying to get something more like CAPE, which ML does not allow

    shoulda bought nothing, turns out, of course
  • @davidrmoran Makes sense. Thanks.
  • wish it made sense to me why I do these things :)
  • edited February 2018
    Interesting link from davidmoran

    I’m with Ed S. on this. (see monthly commentary). For the first time in many years I’m starting to feel the “ouch” from consumer inflation in the things I buy every day (not to say there hasn’t been pockets of inflation for a while). The English muffins on the shelf at a local grocery have stopped their normally frequent “Buy 1 get 1 free” promotions. Now it’s ”Pay up fella.” (Food inflation). And a simple visit from the local plumber to fix a leaking pipe (15-20 minutes on site) seems to be up from $75-80 couple years ago to about $120 dollars now. (labor inflation).

    This is not necessarily bad. Effect on equities? Longer term equities should roughly mirror inflation. Shorter term, it’s usually bad for equities. Puts pressure on companies which can’t raise prices fast enough to keep up with their suppliers and makes alternative income producing investments (cash and bonds) more attractive than they were earlier.
  • edited February 2018
    It will be interesting to see how the market performs tomorrow. I was about to say, it would be interesting to see how the morning goes, but anymore that doesn't have anything to do with what happens later in the day.

    We closed at the low of the day. I really can't see a big leg up into the weekend. We're now down about 10% from the highs. If we have another blood-letting into the close, I may add into positions I established awhile ago, while waiting for a pullback.
  • Hello.

    With the market close today February 8th Old_Skeet's market barometer reads 161 puting the 500 Index, based upon the barometer's metrics, on the borderline betweem undervalue and oversold.

    What does the equate to in valuation movement for the S&P 500 Index? I am showing a recent high reading in round numbers of 2873 on January 26th. And, a reading of 2581 on Feburary 8th for a decline of a little better than 10.1%. Since, I have no idea how low the Index is going to fall before it gains traction I plan to open a new spiff position tomorrow in a diverified stock fund. I'll average into this position with at least two more planned buys. I'm thinking no trader will want to have an open book going into the weekend. With this, I'm thinking buyers will be staying away. I would not be surprised to see 2450 coming soon (another 5% drop).

    With all the noise about the market you'd think things are really really bad. However, year-to-date I am down just short of 2.0% while the S&P 500 Index, which the barometer follows, is down just short of 3.5%.

    And, so it goes.

    I wish all ... "Good Investing."
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