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DoubleLine's Gundlach Predicts S&P Will Post Negative Return In 2018 + Commodities

FYI: (Thank God, the Linkster has Dan Ivascyn as his bond fund manager!)

While U.S. stocks are now in an “accelerating phase,” billionaire investor Jeffrey Gundlach is predicting that the S&P 500 will post a negative rate of return in 2018.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-funds-doubleline/doublelines-gundlach-predicts-sp-will-post-negative-return-in-2018-idUSKBN1EY2R2

Gundlach Sees Commodities Outperforming In Late-Cycle Boom:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-10/gundlach-says-commodities-set-to-outperform-in-late-cycle-boom

Comments

  • I've always found it difficult to follow anyone saying invest in commodities. This is because I dunno whether they are saying buy raw commodities, i.e. "Commodities Broad Basket" funds or simply "Natural Resources" funds.

    Does anyone have an opinion? Put it another way, if one were to buy this theory which fund might be purchased - FFGCX or FYHTX?
  • BCX Blackrock Resources & Commodity
  • I bought DBCMX.
  • Chinfist said:

    I bought DBCMX.

    It amazes me how so many people able to buy institutional shares of funds. How???

  • Access to institutional funds (along with other restricted share classes and/or funds) is sometimes free or with transaction fees at Fidelity. The minimum initial investment is not always set in stone. Not all funds allow this nor are they available all the time. In addition sometimes you can purchase them at Fidelity but not Schwab or TD Ameritrade. Other times it's vice versa. Lots going on out there.
  • edited January 2018

    50-50

    FYHTX shows closed to new investors on Fidelity website. Buying FFGCX seems to be like buying any other natural resources fund. Will do some research.

    Need to figure out if any of my existing fund managers are leaning this way first. Might as well simply send them more money. Would prefer not to buy another fund if possible.

    AQR really ticked me off previously in how they treated shareholders in their commodity fund.
  • edited January 2018
    Recently, for my commodity exposure, held in my spiff sleeve, I went with PCLAX (and, it sports a 12% yield). It's Morningstar report is linked below. The fund has a number of share classes. Listed for review are the A shares. Years back I owed it's cousin fund PCRAX and, for me, it was a good performer.

    http://www.morningstar.com/funds/XNAS/PCLAX/quote.html
  • edited January 2018
    Gundlach has been making this bullish commodity call for a while, yet he and every Doubleline trustee had $0 invested in the Doubleline Strategic Commodity Fund according to the most recent SEC filing with holdings info as of March 31, 2017. See pages 103-104 here: quote.morningstar.com/fund-filing/SAI/2017/9/22/t.aspx?t=DBCMX&ft=497&d=cea519dc595b9580834096bebcbaa1dd
    Only the fund's manager Jeffrey Sherman had any money invested and that was less than $100,000. Meanwhile, I believe Gundlach has been bullish on commodities since early 2016 as he said they hit a "massive double bottom" then:
    https://advisorperspectives.com/articles/2017/01/11/gundlach-s-forecast-for-2017
  • Is Gundlach focused mostly on oil? Maybe some gold. what else.
  • edited January 2018

    Chinfist said:

    I bought DBCMX.

    It amazes me how so many people able to buy institutional shares of funds. How???
    You can buy any DoubleLine fund's inst shares in an IRA for $5k initial minimum. Since that's Dbl's thing, I'd assume it'd be the same at brokerages - except possibly for a TF tacked on, which is the case at Fidelity.
  • At Fido if your non-inst DbL shares grow to >$100k (or whatever the TF purchase threshold is), you can reclassify them without problem or charge to the cheaper class. (There's a thread on this somewhere.) The only way to avoid the TF, so far as I know.
  • If I were to invest in commodities, I'd buy DBC, which is described as follows:

    "The investment seeks to track changes, whether positive or negative, in the level of the DBIQ Optimum Yield Diversified Commodity Index Excess Return™. The fund pursues its investment objective by investing in a portfolio of exchange-traded futures on the commodities comprising the index, or the index commodities. The index commodities are Light Sweet Crude Oil (WTI), Heating Oil, RBOB Gasoline, Natural Gas, Brent Crude, Gold, Silver, Aluminum, Zinc, Copper Grade A, Corn, Wheat, Soybeans, and Sugar."

    This ETF has been on a big upswing since mid-2017, so a purchase today might not be timely. It certainly would not be buying at the bottom. Maybe the momentum will continue.
  • edited January 2018
    BenWP said:

    If I were to invest in commodities, I'd buy DBC ....

    This ETF has been on a big upswing since mid-2017, so a purchase today might not be timely. It certainly would not be buying at the bottom. Maybe the momentum will continue.

    I have a smidgen of DBC, definitely not bought at the bottom, to follow along for a while in case the commodity surge extends into one of those long-cycle moves comms are famous for. It turned about summer solstice, and is up more than 20% since.
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