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MFO Ratings Through 4th Quarter

edited January 2015 in Fund Discussions
Chip's updated Search Tools with ratings data through December 2014.

The update shows 470 Great Owl funds, or about 6 percent of all evaluated. Of these, about 100 are also Honor Roll funds, meaning they are top quintile performers for both risk adjusted and absolute returns.

Some notables:

Akre Focus Instl (AKRIX)
AMG Managers Intermediate Duration Govt (MGIDX)
Artisan International Value Investor (ARTKX)
Guinness Atkinson Global Innovators (IWIRX)
Hennessy Focus Investor (HFCSX)
Janus Triton D (JANIX)
Pear Tree Polaris Fgn Val Sm Cap Instl (QUSIX)
PIMCO Foreign Bond (USD-Hedged) I (PFORX)
PIMCO Intl StksPLUS AR Strat (UsD-Hg) A (PIPAX)
PIMCO StocksPLUS Absolute Return Instl (PSPTX)
PIMCO StocksPLUS Long Duration Instl (PSLDX)
PRIMECAP Odyssey Aggressive Growth (POAGX)
RiverPark Structural Alpha Institutional (RSAIX)
Smead Value Investor (SMVLX)
T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation (PRWCX)
T. Rowe Price Diversified Sm Cap Growth (PRDSX)
T. Rowe Price Global Technology (PRGTX)
T. Rowe Price Instl Mid-Cap Equity Gr (PMEGX)
T. Rowe Price Instl Small-Cap Stock (TRSSX)
T. Rowe Price New Horizons (PRNHX)
T. Rowe Price Small-Cap Stock (OTCFX)
Tweedy Browne Global Value (TBGVX)
Vanguard Strategic Small-Cap Equity Inv (VSTCX)
Vanguard Struct Large-Cap Eq InstlPlus (VSLPX)
Vanguard Wellesley Income Inv (VWINX)
Vanguard Wellington Inv (VWELX)
Vulcan Value Partners (VVPLX)

Of the 1800 or so surviving funds that have been around 20 years, only about 30 are top quintile across all five evaluation periods (20, 10, 5, 3, and 1 year), yes even in 2014.

Some of them are:

American Century Equity Income Inv (TWEIX)
AMG Managers Intermediate Duration Govt (MGIDX)
Elfun Trusts (ELFNX)
Franklin Mutual Global Discovery Z (MDISX)
Meridian Growth Legacy (MERDX)
PIMCO Foreign Bond (UsD-Hedged) I (PFORX)
T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation (PRWCX)
T. Rowe Price Small-Cap Stock (OTCFX)
TCW Total Return Bond I (TGLMX)
Tweedy Browne Global Value (TBGVX)
Vanguard Wellesley Income Inv (VWINX)
Vanguard Wellington Inv (VWELX)

A few notable funds on our latest Three Alarm list...Calamos and Royce spending some time in the barrel:

Aegis Value (AVALX)
AMG Managers Brandywine Advs Mid Cap Gr (BWAFX)
Artisan Small Cap Value Investor (ARTVX)
Calamos Focus Growth A (CBCAX)
Calamos Growth A (CVGRX)
Calamos Opportunistic Value A (CVAAX)
Calamos Total Return Bond A (CTRAX)
Davis NY Venture A (NYVTX)
Delafield Fund (DEFIX)
Evermore Global Value A (EVGBX)
FpA Capital (FPPTX)
Greenspring (GRSPX)
Hussman Strategic Growth (HSGFX)
Janus Aspen Overseas Instl (JAIGX)
LKCM Fixed-Income (LKFIX)
Loomis Sayles International Bond A (LSIAX)
MainStay Cornerstone Growth A (KLGAX)
MainStay Growth Allocation A (MGXAX)
Muhlenkamp (MUHLX)
Old Westbury Fixed Income (OWFIX)
Royce Global Value Svc (RIVFX)
Royce Low Priced Stock Svc (RYLPX)
Royce Micro-Cap Invmt (RYOTX)
Royce Premier Invmt (RYPRX)
Royce SMid-Cap Value Svc (RMVSX)
Third Avenue International Value Instl (TAVIX)
Thornburg International Value A (TGVAX)
Valley Forge (VAFGX)

Couple other interesting observations...

Bretton Fund (BRTNX), which David last profiled in June 2013, is a Great Owl.

As are three RiverPark funds, as seen below, all also profiled by David:

image

David Sherman's RiverPark Short Term High Yield Fund (RPHIX) actually holds distinction of having highest 3-year risk adjusted return of more than 8000 funds evaluated...twice the Sharpe and seven times higher Sortino and Martin than closest competitor. In a league all its own. A GO since eligible, but M* still only gives it one star for reasons discussed in last February's commentary, "Impact of Category On Fund Ratings".

Good progress continues on our MFO Premium Search Tools site, currently in so-called beta or check-out phase. If you are interested in being a beta tester, please drop David a note. Still trying to figure out how we want to roll-out.

If you see anything amiss in latest ratings update, will work to correct soonest. And, feedback always welcome.

Enjoy.

c

Comments

  • Thanks Charles. Too bad that so many of the good funds are closed to new investors such as PRWCX and RPHIX.
  • Good point equalizer. Maybe that info should be added to the list.
    Derf
  • Hi Charles, your summary is fantastic!! I haven't seen the Honor Roll category here before but its a great category and wonder if its possible to add it to the existing list? Luckily I have chosen a handful of the funds on that list, but I would use it as a starting point in any case I wanted to add or exchange funds in the future.

    Thanks, LLJB
  • Hello,

    The Great Owl funds will not view well for me either as it ... wants to open and then close, opens and then close, opens and then close ... and, this keeps repearing.

    I wonder what gives?

    I use Windows Vista.

    Old_Skeet
  • edited January 2015
    Thanks Old_Skeet (and mcmarasco and Old_Joe).

    I've added the following to each page...

    For Great Owl page, "If having trouble viewing, click here.

    For Three Alarm page, "If having trouble viewing, click here.

    For Fund Dashboard page, "If having trouble viewing, click here.

    See if this works.

    If it does not, I will also add a link to the legacy Google chart format.

    Thanks!
  • The Same bretton fund which is down almost 4% YTD and which has $10M in assets? Sorry, can't imagine fund staying open long.
  • edited January 2015
    Hmmm.

    I think both the SP500 and the category are down YTD 2% or more.

    I've always liked Stephen Dodson and BRTNX...his value approach, concentrated portfolio, communication with shareholders, and performance.

    Here's a look since inception...

    image

    The low AUM has never bothered me, more of a positive actually. It's not going away, if that's your concern. My sense is that if there is a Steven Dobson there will be a BRTNX.

    My only issue would be the 1.5% er, but I believe most mutual funds charge too much. If his past performance continues, suspect he will gain AUM going forward and hopefully er will decrease.
  • MFO, certainly nice work, I'm about max. on mutual funds, but have to do some work on these funds...Always room for a winner or two

    Best of the Best?" only about 30 are top quintile across all five evaluation periods (20, 10, 5, 3, and 1 year), yes even in 2014"..... fascinating stuff, worth some effort with these nuggets
    thanks, tb
  • How many of the 30 are one manager over the 20y? I wager none. Can you parse similarly for 10 and 15y? Can you parse for one manager? Forgive me if I have missed these capabilities.
  • Think you should be more concerned if a fund changed Managers, and no longer performed as before, little concern if a new manager takes over and continues with past successful performance, something going right with these funds long term and multiple managers not an issue...
    example: check Vanguard Healthcare..... stronger than ever after long time manager retirement, past assistant even better as current manager... ..go Jeanie baby....
  • edited January 2015
    ..
  • edited January 2015
    Yes, like many, I invest chiefly in managers, not funds. I would never want to bet on and hope for continuity, momentum, 'something going right long term'. Glad VGHCX abides. I was interested in seeing if any of the 30 listed have had one manager for 20y.
  • Hi David.

    I love you man.

    I agree.

    15 years is about the most we can hope for with single manager.

    But I do not know for sure...our database does not account for category drift...or, manager drift, sad to say...past performance, numbers only.

    Here are some of the 10 year funds with top-quintile risk-adjusted performance across the past 10, 5, 3, and even 1 year evaluation periods through Dec 2014. (I left off most of the sector funds and munis.)

    Access Capital Community Investment I (ACCSX)
    American Century Mid Cap Value Inv (ACMVX)
    AMG Chicago Equity Partners Bal Instl (MBEYX)
    Artisan International Value Investor (ARTKX)
    Buffalo Discovery (BUFTX)
    First Trust Value Line Dividend ETF (FVD)
    GE Instl Premier Growth Equity Inv (GEIPX)
    Guinness Atkinson Global Innovators (IWIRX)
    Hennessy Equity and Income Institutional (HEIIX)
    Homestead Small Company Stock (HSCSX)
    iShares Morningstar Large-Cap (JKD)
    iShares S&P 500 Growth (IVW)
    JPMorgan Mid Cap Value Instl (FLMVX)
    Metropolitan West Total Return Bond M (MWTRX)
    PIMCO Intl StksPLUS AR Strat (USD-Hg) A (PIPAX)
    PIMCO StocksPLUS Absolute Return Instl (PSPTX)
    Pinnacle Value (PVFIX)
    Principal MidCap R2 (PMBNX)
    RidgeWorth Conservative Allc Strat I (SCCTX)
    SEI Moderate Strategy Allc A (SAAT) (SXMAX)
    SEI US Managed Volatility A (SIMT) (SVOAX)
    Shelton Nasdaq-100 Index Direct (NASDX)
    T. Rowe Price Diversified Sm Cap Growth (PRDSX)
    T. Rowe Price Global Technology (PRGTX)
    T. Rowe Price Instl Mid-Cap Equity Gr (PMEGX)
    T. Rowe Price Instl Small-Cap Stock (TRSSX)
    Vanguard Target Retirement 2015 Inv (VTXVX)
    Vanguard Target Retirement 2045 Inv (VTIVX)
  • >> implying along the possibility of
    >> comparing versus manager tenure.
    >> If funds did not perform after changes in management,

    \\\ Sentence structure and punctuation make a huge difference in reading.

    No kiddin'.

    >> our database does not account for category drift...or, manager drift, sad to say...past performance, numbers only.

    I have an idea. How about a cell or field for manager tenure? In years. There's a number.

    In fact, I may be misremembering FA HR, but did not Weitz et alia have something along those lines?

    >> Of the 1800 or so surviving funds that have been around 20 years, only about 30 are top quintile across all five evaluation periods (20, 10, 5, 3, and 1 year), yes even in 2014.
    >> Some of them are: ...
    >> Meridian Growth Legacy (MERDX)

    The current managers of this venerable fund have been on the job for like a year and a half. Gosh and golly, should I invest in it? I pray it has magical momentum. I wonder how the new guys will do. Is there any way to tell? Does the brandname confer skill? Were they trainees?

    Well, no, no, and who the hell knows? It is a scandal this is an MFO Great Owl. Makes the site look ridiculous. People are always going off about Fidelity manager tenure and turnover, and here this venerable site dares to list effectively a brand-new fund as a Great Owl. Makes all the wonderful data work that goes into the effort dubious.

    Here is M* from a few months ago:

    \\\ This mid-growth fund's future was uncertain after Rick Aster, the lead manager since its 1984 inception, passed away in early 2012. Other investors from his team then oversaw the portfolio, but most had other funds to manage as well and Aster's eponymous firm was left rudderless. In 2013, Arrowpoint Partners (founded by three former Janus portfolio managers in 2007) agreed to purchase Aster's firm and take over the fund. Arrowpoint hired Chad Meade and Brian Schaub, who amassed a superb seven-year record at Janus Triton (JATTX), away from Janus to run the Meridian fund. They took over in September 2013 following a shareholder vote.
    \\\ Meade and Schaub's early returns here are subpar; the fund trails both its typical peer and the Russell 2500 Growth Index (a mix of small- and mid-cap stocks that also served as the benchmark for Janus Triton) by 3 and 2 percentage points, respectively. But they've demonstrated an ability to pick winners among both rapid growers and more-stable fare over the longer haul. A six-person analyst team that includes several former Janus colleagues supports them, and they are working with a smaller asset base than they had in their last two years at Triton.


    Seriously, is it too much to ask for a trigger or criterion screen having to do with manager tenure, so brand-new funds, whatever their name, do not get the highest designation this site has to offer? An absurd situation.
  • Man.

    You're tough.

    We keep having the same debate.

    The MFO Ratings are total returns based only.

    So, consider them one just aspect of your due diligence.

    Kind of like the distinction between M* Stars and M* Metals.

    M* Stars do not consider manager changes or fund house ownership changes...or other aspects that are more astute aspects of fund evaluation, which are reflects in M* Metals.

    Total returns only.

    I do like the idea of adding manager tenure.

    Will look into that.

    c
  • @MFO Members: I believe this thead has run it's course !
    Regards,
    Ted
  • Why do you say that? Who made you pope?
  • >> M* Stars do not consider manager changes

    What is your evidence for asserting this? I cannot find where they explicitly say so. They do seem to mealymouth around it a bit; emphases added:

    Process: What is the fund’s strategy and does management have a competitive advantage enabling it to execute the process well and consistently over time?
    People: What is Morningstar’s assessment of the manager’s talent, tenure, and resources?


    Still, from this, and surely you know more about them I do, it would be hard not to modulate one's assessment with a wholesale switch of managers. Are you saying from your experience and evidence that there is more inertia to name and style and method and process in general than might be supposed otherwise?
  • @davidmoran. Let's continue the debate off-line.

    @Ted. Me too. Over and out.
This discussion has been closed.