w/e August 2, 2024..... A WOW week!
As this was quite the positive week for bonds, I've placed a few numbers for your viewing pleasure.
FIRST:
*** UST yields chart, 6 month - 30 year. This chart is active and will display a 6 month time frame going forward to a future date. Place/hover the mouse pointer anywhere on a line to display the date and yield for that date. The percent to the right side is the percentage change in the yield from the chart beginning date for a particular item. You may also 'right click' on the 126 days at the chart bottom to change a 'time frame' from a drop down menu. Hopefully, the line graph also lets you view the 'yield curve' in a different fashion, for the longer duration issues, at this time. Save the page to your own device for future reference.
NOTE: take a peek at the right side of this graph to find the yield swings of the past week.
For the WEEK/YTD, NAV price changes, July 29 - August 2, 2024***** This week (Friday), FZDXX, MMKT yield continues to move with Fed funds/repo/SOFR rates and ended the week at 5.16% yield. Fidelity's MMKT's continue to maintain decent yields, as is presumed with other vendors similar MMKT's.
--- AGG = +2.36% / +3.26% (I-Shares Core bond), a benchmark, (AAA-BBB holdings)
--- MINT = +.06% / +3.6% (PIMCO Enhanced short maturity, AAA-BBB rated)
--- SHY = +1.00% / +3.04% (UST 1-3 yr bills)
--- IEI = +2.1% / +3.4% (UST 3-7 yr notes/bonds)
--- IEF = +3.12% / +3.39% (UST 7-10 yr bonds)
--- TIP = +1.35% / +3.11% (UST Tips, 3-10 yrs duration, some 20+ yr duration)
--- VTIP = +.6% / +3.47% (Vanguard Short-Term Infl-Prot Secs ETF)
--- STPZ = +.7% / +3.43% (UST, short duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
--- LTPZ = +3.46% / +2.42% (UST, long duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
--- TLT = +6.04% / +1.71% (I Shares 20+ Yr UST Bond
--- EDV = +8.13% / +.47% (UST Vanguard extended duration bonds)
--- ZROZ = +9.2% / -1.36% (UST., AAA, long duration zero coupon bonds, PIMCO
--- TBT = -11% / +1.44% (ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (about 23 holdings)
--- TMF = +18.4% / -6.7% (Direxion Daily 20+ Yr Trsy Bull 3X ETF (about a 2-3x version of EDV etf)
*** Additional important bond sectors, for reference:
--- BAGIX = +2.46% / +3.74% Baird Aggregate Bond Fund (active managed, plain vanilla, high quality bond fund)
--- LQD = +2.22% / +2.56% (I Shares IG, corp. bonds)
--- BKLN = -.43% / +3.52% (Invesco Senior Loan, Corp. rated BB & lower)
--- HYG = -.23% / +4.09% (high yield bonds, proxy ETF)
--- HYD = +.78%/+4.29% (VanEck HY Muni)
--- MUB = +1.15% /+1.6% (I Shares, National Muni Bond)
--- EMB = +1.39%/+4.78% (I Shares, USD, Emerging Markets Bond)
--- CWB = -1.49% / +.54% (SPDR Bloomberg Convertible Securities)
--- PFF = -.03% / +5.15% (I Shares, Preferred & Income Securities)
--- FZDXX = 5.16% yield (7 day), Fidelity Premium MMKT fund
*** FZDXX yield was .11%, April,2022.
Comments and corrections, please.
Remain curious,
Catch
Comments
I have 3 bond funds in my portfolio that I have been putting maturing CD and treasury money into since late 2023. CSOAX has returned 5.2% YTD. RSIIX 4.8% and CBLDX 4.4%. I believe duration in that order. All on pace to outperform CDs and treasuries. I like CSOAX because it is a well-run multisector fund which M* labels a HY bond fund right now. A great owl also. RSIIX and CBLDX have remarkably nice trend lines showing little volatility. I, personally, would not stick with short duration bonds at this time with rates ready to move, but I am no expert.
But while that works for us, in our 80s, it definitely may not be optimal for younger investors.
I would also be wary about sticking with the bond funds that have worked best earlier in the year such as the bank loans and others. Leaders often become laggards and vice versa and that is what we have seen the past few weeks.
Mike, my schedule is busy early today; but I'll reply in full later.
@Junkster, good to 'see' you here. You know of many more bond cycles that I/we, but special periods pop up here and there, for various reasons.
I am particularly reminded of the 'near' perfect storm, in junk bonds, after the GFC.
At the time, we had access to 6 HY/HI junk bond funds in retirement accts; and placed money into all of them.
I recall the period of time when this sector was badly damaged. Very low NAV's and of course, the related high yields. For a period of time, many fund yields were about 20%. SO, bought the cheap NAV's and obtained the yields. As the 'gov't' began to fix things, the sector began to recover, but with very nice yields. We made money on the yields and then more again from the NAV increases. I'm sure many 'bond' folks made decent money in this period.
For the heck of it CHART: SPY vs SPHIX from June, 2008 to June, 2011.
Lots of crosscurrents. As discussed elsewhere one of the most overcrowded trades out there - some of the CLOs - had their worst day on record Friday amid the heaviest and second heaviest volume ever seen. More specifically below investment grade CLOZ and JBBB. Will be interesting how they trade in the following weeks. Either much ado about nothing or yet again another bell that was rung that no one wanted to pay attention to.
OK, babysitting my junk. I will not rush to exchange it. I much appreciate the back-and-forth on this thread!
I agree with Junkster, at this time, regarding quality bond funds or etf's; being US Treasury and/or corporate bonds.
There are too many pieces of very dry wood, that are placed too close to a small burning fire. The fire and wood being: Israel and Iran, etc.; the most important U.S. elections of our lifetimes and F-16 fighters started to arrive today in Ukraine; shortly after Ukraine had announced the sinking of a Russian submarine and other important attacks. In addition, is what actions the FED may take in the coming months based on their data views.
We're a Medicare/SS household, and while we enjoy having decent annual returns; we also have capital preservation in mind.
Most of us spend $1,000's each and every year for house and auto insurance, and never file a claim; and the money is gone forever.
We treat our bond fund holdings as 'investment insurance' currently using BAGIX (active managed). We'll not likely outrun inflation and taxes, but maintain the capital.
The AGG bond etf is similar in high quality to BAGIX (ER = .30).
I've watched over the years and charted these two against bond 'index' funds. BAGIX has maintained near 1% annualized above the returns of the other two. AGG and bond index funds run very close paths. I'm not trying to sell, but to offer the view.
Our portfolio is 40/60. The 40 in equity is split between growth and conservative equity (healthcare). The 60 is bond/MMKT. The entire portfolio arrived at a +.33% for last week.
One can always dollar cost average into whatever.
NOTE: We've remained fully U.S. centered with investments since 2008. We have more than enough foreign exposure inside the equities, from their foreign earnings.
Lastly, we don't know what the 'shake out' events will be or from where.
Good evening.
From the Jordan Times, out of Amman:
https://www.jordantimes.com/news/region/iran-says-expects-hizbollah-hit-deeper-inside-israel
Bond NAV's were down through Thursday, with many having decent recovery pricing on Friday. Perhaps this is a good omen going forward. A few numbers for your viewing pleasure.
FIRST:
*** UST yields chart, 6 month - 30 year. This chart is active and will display a 6 month time frame going forward to a future date. Place/hover the mouse pointer anywhere on a line to display the date and yield for that date. The percent to the right side is the percentage change in the yield from the chart beginning date for a particular item. You may also 'right click' on the 126 days at the chart bottom to change a 'time frame' from a drop down menu. Hopefully, the line graph also lets you view the 'yield curve' in a different fashion, for the longer duration issues, at this time. Save the page to your own device for future reference. NOTE: take a peek at the right side of this graph to find the yield swings of the past week.
For the WEEK/YTD, NAV price changes, August 5 - August 9, 2024
***** This week (Friday), FZDXX, MMKT yield continues to move with Fed funds/repo/SOFR rates and ended the week at 5.15% yield. MMKT's yields moved down .01-.02% from last week. Fidelity's MMKT's continue to maintain decent yields, as is presumed with other vendors similar MMKT's.
--- AGG = -.78% / +2.46% (I-Shares Core bond), a benchmark, (AAA-BBB holdings)
--- MINT = +.04% / +3.64% (PIMCO Enhanced short maturity, AAA-BBB rated)
--- SHY = -.23% / +2.8% (UST 1-3 yr bills)
--- IEI = -.68% / +2.73% (UST 3-7 yr notes/bonds)
--- IEF = -1.04% / +2.31% (UST 7-10 yr bonds)
--- TIP = -.43% / +2.66% (UST Tips, 3-10 yrs duration, some 20+ yr duration)
--- VTIP = -.16% / +3.3% (Vanguard Short-Term Infl-Prot Secs ETF)
--- STPZ = -.17% / +3.23% (UST, short duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
--- LTPZ = -1.13% / +1.23% (UST, long duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
--- TLT = -2.08% / -.33% (I Shares 20+ Yr UST Bond
--- EDV = -2.70% / -2.24% (UST Vanguard extended duration bonds)
--- ZROZ = -2.78% / -4.1% (UST., AAA, long duration zero coupon bonds, PIMCO
--- TBT = +4.1% / +5.58% (ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (about 23 holdings)
--- TMF = -6.4% / -12.62% (Direxion Daily 20+ Yr Trsy Bull 3X ETF (about a 2x version of EDV etf)
*** Additional important bond sectors, for reference:
--- BAGIX = -.90% / +2.81% Baird Aggregate Bond Fund (active managed, plain vanilla, high quality bond fund)
--- LQD = -.80% / +1.73% (I Shares IG, corp. bonds)
--- BKLN = +.34% / +3.87% (Invesco Senior Loan, Corp. rated BB & lower)
--- HYG = +.34% / +4.45% (high yield bonds, proxy ETF)
--- HYD = -.69%/+3.59% (VanEck HY Muni)
--- MUB = -.53% /+1.07% (I Shares, National Muni Bond)
--- EMB = -.23%/+4.54% (I Shares, USD, Emerging Markets Bond)
--- CWB = +.50% / +1.04% (SPDR Bloomberg Convertible Securities)
--- PFF = -.19% / +4.95% (I Shares, Preferred & Income Securities)
--- FZDXX = 5.15% yield (7 day), Fidelity Premium MMKT fund
*** FZDXX yield was .11%, April,2022.
Comments and corrections, please.
Remain curious,
Catch
Please see @Observant1’s posting from Charlie Bilello.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=LseO6Y4ER4M
I always view @Observant1 Charlie Bilello posts. I've passed his weekly observations along to other investors who are not members of this forum.
Bond NAV's were rising through Wednesday, when Thursday found some very large daily percentage drops, with many having a decent recovery pricing on Friday; allowing for a positive pricing week. A few numbers for your viewing pleasure.
FIRST:
*** UST yields chart, 6 month - 30 year. This chart is active and will display a 6 month time frame going forward to a future date. Place/hover the mouse pointer anywhere on a line to display the date and yield for that date. The percent to the right side is the percentage change in the yield from the chart beginning date for a particular item. You may also 'right click' on the 126 days at the chart bottom to change a 'time frame' from a drop down menu. Hopefully, the line graph also lets you view the 'yield curve' in a different fashion, for the longer duration issues, at this time. Save the page to your own device for future reference. NOTE: take a peek at the right side of this graph to find the yield swings of the past week, and for the current yields for the last business day.
For the WEEK/YTD, NAV price changes, August 12 - August 16, 2024
***** This week (Friday), FZDXX, MMKT yield continues to move with Fed funds/repo/SOFR rates; and ended the week at 5.15% yield. MMKT's yields were basically unchanged from last week. Fidelity's MMKT's continue to maintain decent yields, as is presumed with other vendors similar MMKT's.
--- AGG = +.57% / +3.04% (I-Shares Core bond), a benchmark, (AAA-BBB holdings)
--- MINT = +.12% / +3.77% (PIMCO Enhanced short maturity, AAA-BBB rated)
--- SHY = +.07% / +2.88% (UST 1-3 yr bills)
--- IEI = +.19% / +2.92% (UST 3-7 yr notes/bonds)
--- IEF = +.42% / +2.74% (UST 7-10 yr bonds)
--- TIP = +.18% / +2.84% (UST Tips, 3-10 yrs duration, some 20+ yr duration)
--- VTIP = +.10% / +3.40% (Vanguard Short-Term Infl-Prot Secs ETF)
--- STPZ = +.07% / +3.30% (UST, short duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
--- LTPZ = +.57% / +1.81% (UST, long duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
--- TLT = +1.23% / +.84% (I Shares 20+ Yr UST Bond
--- EDV = +1.72% / -.56% (UST Vanguard extended duration bonds)
--- ZROZ = +2.23% / -1.94% (UST., AAA, long duration zero coupon bonds, PIMCO
--- TBT = -2.09% / +3.41% (ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (about 23 holdings)
--- TMF = +3.25% / -9.80% (Direxion Daily 20+ Yr Trsy Bull 3X ETF (about a 2x version of EDV etf)
*** Additional important bond sectors, for reference:
--- BAGIX = +.60% / +3.43% Baird Aggregate Bond Fund (active managed, plain vanilla, high quality bond fund)
--- LQD = +1.35% / +3.10% (I Shares IG, corp. bonds)
--- BKLN = +.43% / +4.32% (Invesco Senior Loan, Corp. rated BB & lower)
--- HYG = +1.12% / +5.62% (high yield bonds, proxy ETF)
--- HYD = +.25%/+3.85% (VanEck HY Muni)
--- MUB = +.09% /+1.16% (I Shares, National Muni Bond)
--- EMB = +1.25%/+5.85% (I Shares, USD, Emerging Markets Bond)
--- CWB = +1.27% / +2.33% (SPDR Bloomberg Convertible Securities)
--- PFF = +1.14% / +6.15% (I Shares, Preferred & Income Securities)
--- FZDXX = 5.15% yield (7 day), Fidelity Premium MMKT fund
*** FZDXX yield was .11%, April,2022. (For reference to current date)
Comments and corrections, please.
Remain curious,
Catch
Bond NAV's had many price swings through the week, with many having a decent recovery pricing on Friday; allowing for a positive pricing week. A few numbers for your viewing pleasure.
FIRST:
*** UST yields chart, 6 month - 30 year. This chart is active and will display a 6 month time frame going forward to a future date. Place/hover the mouse pointer anywhere on a line to display the date and yield for that date. The percent to the right side is the percentage change in the yield from the chart beginning date for a particular item. You may also 'right click' on the 126 days at the chart bottom to change a 'time frame' from a drop down menu. Hopefully, the line graph also lets you view the 'yield curve' in a different fashion, for the longer duration issues, at this time. Save the page to your own device for future reference. NOTE: take a peek at the right side of this graph to find the yield swings of the past week, and for the current yields for the last business day.
For the WEEK/YTD, NAV price changes, August 19 - August 23, 2024
***** This week (Friday), FZDXX, MMKT yield continues to move with Fed funds/repo/SOFR rates; and ended the week at 5.15% yield. MMKT's yields were basically unchanged from last week. Fidelity's MMKT's continue to maintain decent yields, as is presumed with other vendors similar MMKT's.
--- AGG = +.65% / +3.71% (I-Shares Core bond), a benchmark, (AAA-BBB holdings)
--- MINT = +.10% / +3.87% (PIMCO Enhanced short maturity, AAA-BBB rated)
--- SHY = +.33% / +3.21% (UST 1-3 yr bills)
--- IEI = +.56% / +3.49% (UST 3-7 yr notes/bonds)
--- IEF = +.74% / +3.50% (UST 7-10 yr bonds)
--- TIP = +.9% / +3.77% (UST Tips, 3-10 yrs duration, some 20+ yr duration)
--- VTIP = +.41% / +3.83% (Vanguard Short-Term Infl-Prot Secs ETF)
--- STPZ = +.53% / +3.83% (UST, short duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
--- LTPZ = +1.78% / +3.62% (UST, long duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
--- TLT = +.97% / +1.82% (I Shares 20+ Yr UST Bond
--- EDV = +1.23% / +.66% (UST Vanguard extended duration bonds)
--- ZROZ = +1.15% / -.82% (UST., AAA, long duration zero coupon bonds, PIMCO
--- TBT = -1.8% / +1.6% (ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (about 23 holdings)
--- TMF = +2.66% / -7.37% (Direxion Daily 20+ Yr Trsy Bull 3X ETF (about a 2x version of EDV etf)
*** Additional important bond sectors, for reference:
--- BAGIX = +.60% / +4.05% Baird Aggregate Bond Fund (active managed, plain vanilla, high quality bond fund)
--- LQD = +.88% / +4.01% (I Shares IG, corp. bonds)
--- BKLN = +.21% / +4.53% (Invesco Senior Loan, Corp. rated BB & lower)
--- HYG = +.71% / +4.37% (high yield bonds, proxy ETF)
--- HYD = +.67%/+4.55% (VanEck HY Muni)
--- MUB = +.31% /+1.47% (I Shares, National Muni Bond)
--- EMB = +1.08%/+6.99% (I Shares, USD, Emerging Markets Bond)
--- CWB = +1.42% / +3.79% (SPDR Bloomberg Convertible Securities)
--- PFF = +1.26% / +6.51% (I Shares, Preferred & Income Securities)
--- FZDXX = 5.15% yield (7 day), Fidelity Premium MMKT fund
*** FZDXX yield was .11%, April,2022. (For reference to current date)
Comments and corrections, please.
Remain curious,
Catch
At or near 52-week high at the moment. Eyeing it as replacement for the bulk of my junk bonds. I am so loathe to pull the trigger and sell my junk. I like my junk. I enjoy my junk. I like the taste of my junk. Great yield on my junk, still. (I better quit. This is a family show.). ...How I hate to see the summer waning.