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Crypto next cycle to start by Q4

edited June 2022 in Other Investing
https://finbold.com/billionaire-mike-novogratz-expects-next-crypto-cycle-to-start-by-q4-2022/?related_post


He maybe right
After the lids are open by feds w monies flow/less tightening, everything may be uptrends bullish again

Comments

  • The Fed flipping to easing in Q4 seems too optimistic. Something terrible would have to happen to the bond market and economy for that to happen. The Fed doesn't care much about stocks and probably not at all about cryptos.

    There are some interesting comments on cryptos by Jan Van Eck, the CEO of VanEck in the current Barron's.
  • The Fed cares a great deal about stocks historically and has bailed out wealthy investors time and again in the past. The reason this time is different is the Fed still cares more about inflation than stocks.
  • And before the Fed, JP Morgan in the Panics of 1893 and 1907.
  • edited June 2022
    When the OP was posted, the crypto quotes weren't that bad but now they are ugly.
    https://www.cnbc.com/cryptocurrency/
  • Between interest rates rising, recession, and the loomng regulatory changes/improvements to crypto-land around the world I would be cautious. Stick with the major cryptocoins (and fiat-backed stablecoins), avoid sh-tcoins, algo-backed 'stable'coiins(hah!), and NFTs --- and be aware of counterparty risks if you're playing the yield-generation/staking game .... too many people are only now starting to understand why some places are giving them 10, 15, 20, or 25% yields on their crypto.
  • edited June 2022
    'Extreme Panic': 3 Reasons Why Bitcoin Is Plunging - Story

    This is one thing I’ve never messed with. Not that being in the stock market has been much fun lately.

    Sad for those harmed and worrisome for the economy and other markets I’d suspect.
  • WSJ reporting Coinbase laying off 20% today. The bloodbath continues....
  • edited June 2022
    I got into cryptolending last fall and closed out my position earning 7% over a month ago when things first getting a bit ... bumpy in cryptoland. The timing was right as I needed the play money to help pay for home rennovations. lol (Some places offered 15, 20, 25% interest, which I avoided like the plague!)

    Anyway, one of my biggest concerns that got me to punch out was counterparty risk with firms lending to other firms lending to other firms and levering up along the way. So at the moment, seeing the various crypto exchanges laying people off, restricting withdrawls, reducing interest rates, etc, etc makes me wonder how the risk folks at Genesis Trading are feeling these days since they lend to the institutional whales in cryptoland.....I can't believe they're not having some very sleepless nights right now, b/c if THEY have problems, chaos will ensue.
  • BION, I have a friend who made enough money in Bitcoin a few years ago to buy his daughter a house. I’m sure he’s out of that market now. Glad @rforno got out.

  • Some excellent commentary/analysis on the curent crypto shennanigans by BBG's Matt Levine:
    https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-06-15/crypto-debt-can-be-trouble
  • Well, now that it's already down about 70% from its ATH, this is a decent indicator the bottom may be in for Bitcoin, at least for a while...lol

    ProShares to Launch the First U.S. Short Bitcoin-Linked ETF on June 21
    https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20220620005101/en/ProShares-to-Launch-the-First-U.S.-Short-Bitcoin-Linked-ETF-on-June-21
  • edited June 2022
    See this chart for ARKK and short SARK with 2-yr view (change if defaults to 1-yr). Note that ARKK continued with another down-leg after SARK started in November 2021. So, start of SARK didn't lead to bottoming of ARKK.

    So, start of short Bitcoin-futures ETF by itself may not indicate bottoming for Bitcoin or cryptos. This long weekend, Bitcoin touched $17,649 and then rebounded strongly - will it hold? (see 5-day view in the 2nd link below; so much for Jan Van Eck, the head of IVZ saying in Barron's, 6/13/22, that Bitcoin may bottom around $30,000, LINK).

    https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=ARKK&compare=SARK&id=p81436041708

    https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/BTC.CM=
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