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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.

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2022 YTD Damage

24567

Comments

  • I'm a proponent of clean energy but oil and gas will still be needed in the near future.
    You're absolutely correct that some people are/were overly optimistic regarding the
    timeframe needed for the transition to clean energy.

    I never heard anyone credible say the timelines were short, perhaps my being ignorant, but I do wonder whom @davfor was thinking of or reading. Yes and no appears to be the current thinking:

    https://www.iea.org/news/renewable-electricity-growth-is-accelerating-faster-than-ever-worldwide-supporting-the-emergence-of-the-new-global-energy-economy
  • edited March 2022
    Yogi: "Terrible sounding death-cross (50-dMA crossing 200-dMA on downswing) was noted for Nasdaq Comp about 3 weeks ago, in mid-February (it had happened to R2000/IWM in mid-January). One may have thought then whether the other indexes will follow, or will pull up R2000 and Nasdaq Comp. We now have a partial answer. DJIA/$INDU also has a death-cross and SP500/$SPX may follow in about a week ...."

    Per Barchart's figures, the S&P 500 is within spitting distance of a death cross now (based on simple moving averages), just a 10 point gap to close.
  • edited March 2022
    Then there's the HY bond market, with the FRED effective yield chart charging up to 5.93%. McClellan's current weekly post highlights the trouble in HY and the probability that stocks will (continue to) follow HY's trajectory.

    Tom Mc's posts are always interesting and thorough; can't recall now who on MFO tipped me off to them, but thanks whoever it was. They're available by email, free.
  • Major indexes are now showing a downward channel of lower-highs and lower-lows. In the chart, change time to YTD if it defaults to 1 Yr.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=$SPX&compare=$COMPQ,$INDU,$TRAN,IWM&id=p53659391262
  • And yet what really has changed fundamentally?
  • David M. You mean from insanely overvalued markets to crazy overvalued markets still?

    No? Or how you mean?

    Baseball Fan
  • I'd agree with that.
  • Is the McClellan Oscillator related to the oversold and overbought indicators provided by a MFO member 2 or 3 years ago? I seem to remember readings like 125 and 145 indicating the condition of the market.
  • David M. You mean from insanely overvalued markets to crazy overvalued markets still?

    No? Or how you mean?

    Baseball Fan

    yes
  • @carew388 You may be thinking of Old Skeet and his overvalued, undervalued calculations.
    He now posts here: https://big-bang-investors.proboards.com/thread/1128/old-skeets-market-briefing-2022
  • +1 thank you
  • edited March 2022
    Those of you with good memory, could please share how (Fed, fiscal, turn in business cycle, or simple exhaustion) we snapped out of the 2015/2016 correction / bear market?
  • edited March 2022
    BaluBalu said:

    Those of you with good memory, could please share how (Fed, fiscal, turn in business cycle, or simple exhaustion) we snapped out of the 2015/2016 correction / bear market?

    Hmmm … Not to make too fine a point of it, but the S&P lost less than 1% in 2015. It was preceded in 2014 by an 11% gain and followed in 2016 by a 9.5% gain. There may have been a bear market in there somewhere, but I don’t remember it.

    - 2007-2009 was one of the worst bear markets in history based on peak to trough. But one of the shortest based on duration.

    - A more recent nasty stretch was in 2018 when the S&P lost 6.24% for the year, most of that in the 4th quarter.

    - Than there was the first quarter of 2020 when we fell off a cliff. However, by year end markets had recovered.

    Why we snapped out of recent bears or corrections I can’t answer. But I’d say your “Fed, fiscal, turn in business cycle, or simple exhaustion” are all somewhat correct. To pick just one, I’d guess the highly accommodative Fed was the single biggest contributor. Therein lies the problem today. With short term rates so low and inflation rising the Fed might not be able to ride to the rescue next time as it has in the recent (10-15 year) past.


    S&P Performance By Year


  • Time to pick up on this update. 2 views of major indexes, 1st YTD (shows Nasdaq Comp down -20.16%), 2nd from 11/22/21 that was Nasdaq high and from there it is now down -21.22%, in a bear market and below 3/14/22 low.

    Indexes YTD https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=$SPX&compare=$COMPQ,$INDU,$TRAN,IWM&id=p42765942979

    Indexes from 11/22/21, https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=$SPX&compare=$COMPQ,$INDU,$TRAN,IWM&id=p49535142330
  • Thanks, @yogibearbull. Checking this out.
  • edited April 2022
    Price’s “Blue” Chip (TRBCX) is aptly named - down 4% today putting it at -27% YTD. Don’t own it. Gosh - for less than 4 months time that’s really moving. Not in Wood’s league, but nasty nonetheless.

    FWIW: Price’s PRWCX (own it) fell 2% today, putting it at -9% YTD. (Genius at work)
  • If PRWCX gets to -12% YTD, I'd buy more, by using bond money. I have a strict wall between non-taxable and taxable stuff, now.
  • edited April 2022
    Crash said:

    If PRWCX gets to -12% YTD, I'd buy more, by using bond money. I have a strict wall between non-taxable and taxable stuff, now.

    No quarrel on that. I just enjoy picking on DG. Truth is, most everything is suffering at present.

    FWIW - My gold fund (static position) OPGSX has fallen all the way back to what it was worth a year ago - after running hot the last several months. Not a complaint - just an observation.
  • edited April 2022
    Gold was up a bit yesterday. I was tempted to add a little but didn't. I may add to IAU today and maybe a little more to commodities, COM. I could be wrong but I still think those 2 ETFs might be "relatively" decent plays throughout this year.

    edit: @hank, gold is up ~7% this year, ~12% 1year. Sounds like your miners fund is a different story(?)
  • edited April 2022
    @MikeM - Yep. As you know the miners don’t always run in sync with the metal. I’ve held mining fund OPGSX for years and haven’t bought or sold any for about a year. Dead flat in my case. Lipper shows it up about 1% YTD, but down 5% for a full year.

    Gold flirted with $2,000 the past month than fell to around $1900 recently. Has been below $1800 during the past 12-15 months. Have a bit in mining company WPM. So, when I want to add or cut exposure to the miners it’s easier to buy or sell WPM than messing with a mutual fund & the restrictions they impose.

    Haven’t held bullion, but PRPFX does.
  • edited April 2022

    I never heard anyone credible say the timelines were short, perhaps my being ignorant, but I do wonder whom @davfor was thinking of or reading.

    I never heard anyone credible say the timelines were short, perhaps my being ignorant, but I do wonder whom @davfor was thinking of or reading. Yes and no appears to be the current thinking:

    https://www.iea.org/news/renewable-electricity-growth-is-accelerating-faster-than-ever-worldwide-supporting-the-emergence-of-the-new-global-energy-economy


    "I never heard anyone credible say the timelines were short, perhaps my being ignorant, but I do wonder whom @davfor was thinking of or reading."

    Causing the thread to drift again, but I just noticed your comment...Here is someone it may make sense to pay some attention to:
    The temperature will keep rising even as we are reducing these emissions. So you are asking people now to make quote-unquote sacrifices while the first benefits will accrue to their children and the real benefits will accrue to their grandchildren. You have to redo the basic human wiring in the brain to change this risk analysis and say, I value 2055 or 2060 as much as I value tomorrow. None of us is wired to think that way.

    Perhaps "none" is a slight exaggeration....but the point being made rings true.....

    See:

    This Eminent Scientist Says Climate Activists Need to Get Real


  • @MikeM and @hank, in addition to commodity futures (COM) and gold (IAU), food prices are rising rapidly this year. Perhaps, agriculture futures such as DBA may present another opportunity.
    https://finviz.com/futures.ashx
  • Thanks @Sven. Agree with DBA. I own that one too as my commodities "trifecta".
  • Great! Just want more vehicles to counteract the high inflation. Bonds are struggling this year with rising interest rate. Lots of talk on the increased probability to recession.
  • edited April 2022
    I looked at Deere once, which is often touted as a bet on agriculture. Price was sky high. Every Tom, Dick & Harry buying it I suspect. And Barron’s had a piece a few weeks ago strongly recommending Bunge - an intermediary in grain production. A convincing value case. I didn’t bite. I’ll leave it to you guys. I did open a small stake in a baked goods distributor, Flowers Foods (FLO) a couple weeks ago. Did so to broaden out my equities into different areas & also to offset a lot of mega-cap exposure thru mutual funds with some mid-cap stuff. But possibly it might benefit from food inflation.
  • @hank: DBA has remained positive during this recent market drop, but MOO, the Van Eck Agribusiness ETF has taken a hit. PDBC, which I own, is positive since I first bought it in February. Not enough to counterbalance other losers, of course. Infrastructure stocks are also getting whacked of late; I guess the bloom is off the build back America fad.
  • edited April 2022
    “Infrastructure stocks are also getting whacked of late”

    Hi Ben, The only infrastructure fund I own or track is GLFOX - which you recommended. It’s holding up better than most of my stuff - up 3+% YTD. Heavier into utilities than most I suspect..

    Not looking to add real asset / commodity exposure. Stuff is just too darn volatile for me to hold much. Direct exposure pegged at only about 8-9% of investments. But some of my allocation funds add on to that. Mostly, in the real-asset area I’ve stayed with the miners - including RIO which bounced 4% today. And have a bit in NOR, which is an indirect play on commodities.


    PS - the bloom … There you go with that plant stuff again …:)
  • edited April 2022
    Take a look at Fidelity Strategic Real Asset fund, FSRRX, which invest in a combination of real estate stocks and debts, commodity, precious an industrial metals, convertible sec, and bonds.
    https://fundresearch.fidelity.com/mutual-funds/composition/315912881?type=sq-NavBar
    The fund has done well and least volatile among real asset fund. Like @yogibb said, commodities are volatile so limit the $ invested. ETFs are most flexible for this environment.
  • edited April 2022
    Thanks @Sven

    You’re right. The fund’s not volatile. At a glance, about 50% is in some form of fixed income. From Yahoo: (FSRRX)

    “The fund allocates the assets among four general investment categories: inflation-protected debt securities, floating rate loans, commodity-linked derivative instruments and related investments, and real estate investment trusts (REITs) and other real estate related investments. It uses a neutral mix of approximately 25% inflation-protected debt securities, 25% floating rate loans, 30% commodity-linked derivative instruments and related investments, and 20% REITs and other real estate related investments.”

    I use ABRZX as an allocation fund with commodity exposure. I suspect the ER is a lot higher. However, 5 and 10 year results are remarkably similar.
  • @hank, @BenWP, just to clarify, DBA (Invesco DB Agriculture) does not hold any corporate stocks, like Deere for instance. It invests in commodity futures. It follows a futures index. So for that, it won't necessarily follow the stock market like a stock fund would. An ETF like MOO invests in stocks, in companies that have some link to agriculture or basically food.
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